Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Monday, December 31, 2007

More about my trading

Which btw, I've broken even with my loss in the last hour.......

So,

I like to move into a trade in wave 1 of a Multi Day swing.... Hopefully at the point where "wave 3" of that first "wave 1" is established.

What I keep doing is moving into a trade at wave 3 of the multi day move, than in a day and a half the move reverses itself...

Or I move into the trade at wave 2, but near the bottom, chasing it...

dollar

Look at the dollar get a bid

this morning 1.4725, now its 1.463 that is a huge move..... damn Dollar buying!!!

I haven't come up with a satisfactory speculation for the dollar moving back down, or now back up....

The dollar went down, and the market went up... dollar is going up market is going down.

???????

buying dollars and selling the market..... hmmmm

Counter intuative

Yet again...... ok, This is some Whining bullshit, I'm up huge in the past 3 months. and I just took a loss, turned a win into a loss, which was stupid. I knew better. I saw the top and just didn't get out..... I am having a problem being nimble enough in this market. and my ability to be counter intuitive is terrible right now, for some fucking reason.

I completely blew a trade this morning as the market got jittery ahead of the housing numbers, which I knew would be "OK".... and I also anticipated things being miserable till they came out... then expected some recovery.

but as it happened I forgot about that number coming out and thought the nervous market was some larger move building, so I bailed..... at the bottom....

But... I rolled into some new trades that are already moving in the right directions.... Though I'd feel better if I was trading against the market when it was... running hard, and I was moving against it........

for some reason my good timing mojo is just not... being mojoish...... but as I type.....
I'm coming back.

My prediction, down 150 on the day.

I'm going to have to work on some of my nimbleness, and some timing...... I used to see the market much clearer than I see now.......

I also need to get back to trusting my instincts

most important question of the morning

what's for breakfast...

I'm thinking eggs toast and espresso.

lazy me

I figured we had a half day of trading today..... Not sure how I will last with a full day.... i should start drinking at noon.

Atlas and the S&P 500


Hopefully I made this readable, and downloadable...
Green shows smallest scale Elliot waves.
Then you get larger moves in red
Then the Larger scale moves.

But... Looks like, after this impulse wave we are ready for the Third wave, of the Third wave, of the third wave.
I felt last week that this market was like Atlas trying to get past the finish line.....

Well, Atlas is about to Shrug.

My overall Thesis would be we will move tward the 12200 level 12450
1365 maybe a stop over at 1410

To me it seems like we need q4 earnings or dire jobs to make this happen.... But... Seems like we are ready for it.

Sunday, December 30, 2007

I'm hoping to work up some Elliot wave charts before the bell

basicly I'm lookig at the idea that we are at the third wave of the third wave of the first bottom in this Bear. Meaning the other bottom was just wave 1.

For the Short bus

Last week I presented a theory that Musharraf had Benazir Bhutto killed. Not like I back My opinuendo with fact.... But Fuck you, I DON'T have to it's opinuendo...

So, since the Twin Towers the Idea has been circulating that Musharraf is in bed with Al qeada. So after the killing, guess who gets the finger pointed at... Al qeada.... WTF, Seriously.

Of course who do we have our panties in a bunch over, IRAN.....

I still hold my thesis that all of this is just Us fighting the original war of the Greeks vs the Persians. and that if we would just concede territories as drawn.... every country can have what ever fucked up type of government they want... Leave me the hell out of it.

Bhutto, had to of known that this was the most likely consequence.....

and of course our dick less Political bodies, are just going to let it all slide...

I'm not saying invade.... but fucking call a spade a spade.

Friday, December 28, 2007

bob pisani's mother is up .2% on the year vs the S&P.....

she is segnificantly in bonds.

6.6% asuming she eats and buys energy she is up 3.1%

midday trading nap

I have this new habit of a midday trading nap, here in my chair.... I missed it today... and it's going to take a ton of coffee to keep me going...

BOA

No Soup or soap at Bank of America....

one would think they would lose more in health care for the loss of Soap, and probably keeping people eating soup instead of fast food, could be another burdon.....

No Soap...... WTF...

big crop report

Yep aparently it's on the 11th.....
Thinking about putting a big bet against FCOJ
frozen concentrated orange juice.
Well, honestly I'm starting to run a little cold.... I'm not that worried about it..

I've even placed a bet against this sell off... sorry to play a bull

we are going to bounce the sell off from housing data isn't' sustainable...

course that is wish full thinking from someone who is locked into some piece of shit Regional banks looking for a decent exit. which was 2 or 3 days ago......

next time I look at
CFR
CBSH
TCB
HBAN

yet another cnbc crank

I love that those over privliged pompas tubby mornons on CNBC think somehow they are middle class. They wouldn't know middle class if it hit them in the head.......

AMT, and how the Bush Tax cuts helped them...

lets run some numbers.

average wage per hour $18
median wage 2006 24,891.59

This doesn't look to bad people can live on 2 thousand a month, 1 thousand for a house payment, 1 thousand for expenses.... sounds fine, you get 2 wage earners and you can get a decent house for 2k and 2 k in expenses... it's middle class...

Oh.... Wait!!! that includes benefits.
well how much are benefits. Half assed medical, and other limited benefits come to $10,000 per year. That is $10 per hour, and

So, people are making $8 per hour with bennifits.
or $14K per year.

Well what is that..... $1166 per month... oh, hmmm well cheep rent and some frugal living. $700 in rent $400 for expenses... I guess that is doable, assuming you eat a lot of canned beans and are a wonder with grains... and keep in mind the $100-$200 gas bill. That is awefully frugal living, and perish the though there is some large purchase or expense.

with 2 people that is a $1200 home payment, $1100 in expenses...... Seems fairly Sparse...

Bet let me just let CNBC in on something, they benefited almost 0 from the bush tax cuts, and probably were hurt. These people have no Retirement, and were just thrilled to be able to afford a decent TV.

It was one thing when bennifits were $3K per year and the rest could be taken home.

SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY LARGE DISCONNECT FROM WALLSTREET TO REALITY.(admitted, CNBC isn't wallstreet)

Just remember when you talk about the middle class in this country... they make $8-12 bucks an hour pluss bennifits. or $15-22 without.

Morning

I'm umn.....

I'm cooking with gas this morning, but just trying to catch up on all the crap I need to do....

Peso/Euro is 1.47 roughly......

I'm not understanding this... I guess it's the bad economic news, which isn't being particularly priced into the market.

I haven't looked at anything else. I assume libor is mediocre, I'll look at later....

I don't have time to chart it..... I'm suspect of this bounce, though it does look like window dressing.

the corrective wave yesterday was a classic ABC EW correction. I was expecting a 5th wave of that correction.... we can see what happens off the open.

It did show a good clean 3 wave move.... I'm hoping to sell end of the day.... then depending on the movement, I may go short. or wait till Monday... see what that brings.

The bullishness, or foolishness being traipsed around today.... I just think is crazy. I can't believe that more than 10% of the sell off was Bhutto related. The market was looking for a correction, the economic reports, were the catalyst....

Thursday, December 27, 2007

New Financial instrument for the Super SIV!

I have this totally figured out.

You take 240 investors... Then they get placed into the investment, every month there is a lotto, and totally at random, the top 10% of the investors takes the returns on the top 10% of the CDO, next 10% of investors takes the returns on the top 10-20% third to the 20-30% and so on. and that is decided at random every month.......

BUT!!!!! every month one investor is ejected from the system, and loses their investment. this goes on for 20 years until there is only one investor left, and only 10 years left on the mortgages. At that point that investor is declared the winner and gets ownership of the CDO.

But you will get some returns, and you could win the lotto and get the whole thing, and probably at pennies to it's value.

I'd like to call it the Musical chairs SIV or MCSIV..... I have it copy written so, CITI or Morgan... if you want it, drop me a call.

I know it's not convoluted enough... But I'm betting that the money center banks will come up with a way to make it less obvious.

Dubja

Bush, "bhutto killers must be brought to justice"

Does that include Musharraf? it's obvious that he is who is behind it, and as much as bush wants to talk "democracy", it's bullshit. and what a huge smack at the bush doctrine: bush's democracy through imperialism.... But we all know Bush is a paper tiger.

But I guess they don't have as much oil as Iran...

First on CNBC "Pakistan has nuclear weapons"

Bhutto dies, we will see some significant riots.... could be good enough reason to get to $100 in oil. I don't know why.... but good enough reason... I bet we see an attempt on Musharraf...
Like I've said before, this is their version of democracy... I know that sounds weird... but democratically if you get enough people in a mob, they can democratically overthrow a government.

Market was looking for a reason to correct....

1.456 on the dollar/euro....

I'm a little irritated I didn't sell yesterday..... I may be in this long term, like till Monday.....LOL

Try and figure out where to cut my losses if necessary...

I'm just going to blog this

I figure as a distraction, from what stinkers my Regional have been......FUCKING STINKERS... and by this I just mean I'd rather be playing almost anything, materials, industrials, Agriculture.... Any-fucking thing......

As I blog this, they are catching a bid.... So, i'm being a whinny bitch!

One of these days I'll get to significant money which will free me up from my ridiculous aggressive trading. What I'd love to be doing right now is buying up the regional as they hit 52 week lows. and maybe rolling out of half my positions as they jump, holding onto some for value investing. but I end up in a few of them, then I don't have enough capitol to play the indexes, and I have reservations about spreading myself to thin.

Maybe a strategy of value investing, then holding some money to feed my gambling urges.

Wave C just formed as I was working up this chart.... if it is defended... I say after the next impulse wave go short.... some time tomorrow, or even end of the day tomorrow...

I want to get short the IWM at the 79 level.... I say we are range bound till Tuesday morning... but the pattern will develop, and that will be the good entry.

If I were smarter, I'd wait for the pattern to confirm....

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Fortune cookie Trading

I got a fortune cookie tonight.
"keep it up and you will get what you wish."

so is that

  • stay in my trade and it will work out.
  • or stay disciplined take your small gain and keep trading the swings.

Damn Fortune cookie Trading!!!!!

Well, that looks like the end of the elliot wave...... I'm still betting flat, and if your not in the shitiest financials your not getting much of a bounce regardless of CNBC's claim of bottom picking in financials... they were only up .02%

aparently I'm betting on flat trading for 3 more days.

interesting

the S&P may be in neutral.... I may go short.... a bit... or look for some opportunities.

I may fall asleep in my chair

I may go buy some boots.......

I still think we have another good high in us this week.

well, the IWM(R2k) is threatening neutral to bearish... while the other indexes are trying to be intraday bullish.

Dollar/eruo has moved to 1.45...... that is interesting.... there should be some reason....

I'd guess it has to do with the retail numbers.

I figured we would bounce off 1490 this morning, which puts the bounce in question.....

Currently I think the bounce will develop end of the week.... My positions are profitable, but turkeys.... Meaning I'm not getting the 20% run I was greedily hoping for..... Let me just hang onto them till they are losers...........

Suck down more coffee see what I think.

I'm telling you Retail bottoms next Christmas. That is a knife waiting to happen...

Honestly I want to go back to bed

UPDATE: Bear trap..... Lets still see how things develop. I'll be surprised if the bears can get things going....

the morning futures

that was messed up
the s&P was suposed to open at 1502, and yet they showed down. yet the close was 1495....
same held for all the indexes showing down and yet up for some reason....

Well... Truth was shown on the open, as everything showed itself down.

futures contracts

apparently the futures aren't trading... those futures I think are from the 24th

Damn

one of my financials if i hold till the 11th... I can score a significant dividend.... What I need to do is look for dividends in each of the regional banks and just score it for the dividend date... all I have to avoid is a 1% drop

retail spin.

Retail Rush Falls Short, Now Come More Sales

retail sales increased a lackluster 2.4%. Industry forecasts had predicted gains of 3.5% to as high as 4.5%.

Perhaps the season's biggest loser was women's apparel, which declined 2.4% despite a late rally

Gift cards..... you know what the bad side of that is? that you spend what you budgeted... so you budget $20 for a friend, and that is all you spend, instead of 24.50 or whatever.....

BlackRock Cash Fund Is Downgraded For Suspending Certain Redemptions

The fund isn't a money-market fund, but instead is a similar type of product -- known as an "enhanced" cash fund -- that seeks to offer higher yield to investors through a variety of shorter-term investments.

Holiday Spending Is Weak, as Retailers Expected

Christmas rose just 3.6 percent over last year, the weakest performance in at least four years,

I may sneak out this morning and go vulture shop......
not like I want anything... I could use some shirts. maybe some outdoor gear.

I saw a Yahoo ..... Oh here it is...
Reuters trys to spin things to the upside.
U.S. Retailers holiday sales up.

Oh..... Thank God

I'm not a Deist, but I'm happy Christmas has ended, and it's time to get back to the regular scheduled investing, stock market program.....

I'm going to look at the futures and blog my reaction.... sound like fun..

Before I start.....

I say down 20....(I never account for fair value)

JESUS UP 77!!!

good to be long!!!

WHAT ARE YOU PEOPLE HIGH ON CRANBERRIES AND PIE!!!!

I vote "invisible hand and the PPT"

maybe that will soften by the open!!! 1510 on the S&P......

Like I have said we are still on that third wave!!!!!

I don't think this is sustainable!....

That will catch some bears with their underwear on.... Monday was fairly flat overall.

Tuesday, December 25, 2007

heheh

I just realized I posted a 12200 call... I was thinking there was a possibility of this a few weeks ago, with a rally to 12600 or 12800 for xmas....

But what I meant a few days back was referring to a call for 13000-13200 then a Christmas rally.... Which happened faster than I expected, making me think we were going lower....
So, sorry for that pick, which was 13200 and not 12800... I just got it mixed up in my fingers.

I mean, shit... what other blog throws around picks like I do, with abandon... I know I'm wrong plenty, and I certainly throw out numerous possibilities. so for being correct 1/5 or so(Hey I'm not keeping track) I think that is fairly good. And yes... I typo ed 12800 instead of 13800....

and one of my blurry charts points directly to 1495 or 1496.... when a more rational pick would have been a bounce off 1490.

So... I expect a pull back of 50 then a rally for 75 points on Thursday-Friday... maybe a hundred point rally for Monday..... Keep a good eye out for a blow off top.

Point being, I'm still looking for a wave 4 in this move... none of these pull backs are clean enough....

I sure would like a great rally in the financials... Like a 10% move ;)... I have only caught a 3% move so far.

Monday, December 24, 2007

Crystal Ball

Even worse that the theory that we get some bad jobs.... Worse than we currently have. If the people who have money in money markets take a hit... That would be people who, have money but don't actively invest. Then we get a bank run on the money markets.... That should be sufficient to freak the public out.

"but George, your money is in dav's Credit card. and Jims SUV.... It's not here, we only have .10 on every dollar"

If the public gets freaked out... Meaning like a 60 minutes story or major news coverage... Gold will go through the roof.

Funny stuff

I always laugh when people point out the media is lying to us..... That is it's job. Media is free.... want to know why? because corporations and the aristocracy use it to lie to us.

This just all leads into religion, and how T.V. is just the new religion.

I just can't even start to go into this without it being a 300 page Opus.

This would all be obviously clear, if only we had the lucidity that, not being brainwashed by media would afford.

Well... I still think this market has a higher high left in it.......

the s&p hit my 1496 target.... This does feel like a place one could go short..... I'm not psyched to be ahead of the curve though..... Overall the double indexes have outpaced my regional banks.

Morning...

1.44 roughly on the Euro/Peso

nothing interesting in the Libor zone.. Libor has come down, not as much as some may hope.

futures now say down 8..... I haven't played this game in a while I say at the open up 5.

I little morning pull back with a forward run would be nice..... and a kick ass run in the financials...(I still hate one of the ones I own.... but I still bet it coins money for me)

What a load this weekend, lots of crap about "Great holiday earnings"... the "Optimistic projections, are on par with the gains coming out of the last bear in 2002.

First on McCNBC, the consumer confidence numbers, that don't mean anything.... Well they don't mean anything, as reported when reported.

So Umn... who knows how the day will turn. Like the POS bear, asshole liberal I am. I don't celebrate this holiday, I think Christmas is everything that is wrong with America. You take something nice like spirituality and family.... and load it with a bunch of Coke Adverts, Junky toy buys, and obscene commercialism/materialism......(there will be a fat dinner, and some book reading.)


But non the less, I hope you have a great holiday season :)

Joe Keirnen just apologised/and defended defining LIBOR on CNBC..... what a fucking embarrassment "sorry for informing the audience".... ya, thanks Joe... next you may help them make money by actually getting information.

Wholly Crap..... CNBC just figured out the Putin is a corrupt asshole.... and Chavez is Benjamin Franklin compared to Putin.

Sunday, December 23, 2007

The blue shows a possible end to this impulse wave.





The green shows what I'm betting on.





I felt as thought we had some kick still left in this move.... hopefully through the 31st or 15th for the January effect....





It's the action in the IWM that makes me nervous

That has run far, and the last move feels like a top....all of this view through my rose colored glasses that we can't make a higher high...

My gut says we run through end of the year. Jan 5th or so.

Either that or maybe a flat Christmas eve. then we drop back to hell.... That could be the fear I have of being long.

Regardless we are due for some form of a correction.

Friday, December 21, 2007

Ronald of McBuisness TV

Well, my original call of 12200 and then a xmas rally may happen.... I make so many calls it's hard to keep track..... (damn I wrote 12200 and ment 13200.... how is that for revisionist history... Though I do expect 12200 in the next 2 months)

But Ronald McBusiness TV(Cramer) says this is the xmas rally.

I hate one of the Regional banks I purchased.

I read through some of their releases, and they push "Ethics, and proper morals in lending"... Which makes me think they have a BIG problem with those things.

then I do some obsessive reading about them, and find out they do.

Corporations, always projecting their weaknesses.

Opine for a market.


This is a market that wants to be at 13400 13500 at q4 earnings.

Continue to excuse me, Many family members around here.... It starts reminding me of a Griswald family Xmas.... Unfortunately I'm my own version of Clark. Which is ok, we have to have some humor about one's self.



it's 1am my time.... I slept some and am not sure how much. I feel like it must have been 8 or 9pm, that I hit the sack.




But I digress, Nobody gives a shit about my sleeping habits.




Just one of those questions, Why when the dollar/Euro was moving from 1.3-1.5 did no body give a shit. But then when it has moved from 1.5 to 1.44... it's like it's the roaring Twenties.




Have I mentioned I hate being long.

Triple witching... Though the futures show this roughly... I did predict this chart last night.... But not that I can prove it.

Probably the usual sell off into the close.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Knife Catch

So, I'm nervous about my regional bank knife catch...... I hope it works for me... I'm researching some subprime exposure in the regional..... Fucking lack of transparency.

I've run a business for a long time, and if I was the CEO of a Bank, I'd have every subprime, alt A. derivative on my books, Clearly and directly accounted for. I'd have it on a spread sheat updated every day, on the lead investor page.

When I go through banks and I get a sense of it being "Convoluted", it scares the shit out of me.

I was trying to find something to get long.... and I just couldn't do tech. I thought about the agricultural play.

Regardless of the crazy bad news

The market wants to run.... ... Except it is time for window dressing.

seems like the new trade is to go short in the morning long in the afternoon.

Market is doomed

I've switched to the long(dark) side... Obviously its time for the big sell off, to develop that I've been waiting for for 4 days.

I think we are going to get Santa clause, and there is no way to stop it........

No Santa clause rally makes the baby Jesus cry.

I didn't buy tech.... Seriously the only thing I wanted to buy was a regional bank or 2.

Ugh

Hey!! this market keeps coming down, I may break even this week....

I had limited capital to throw against the market this morning, that and the fact I'd shorted every bit of strength in the past 3 days... Leaves me with.... limited upside this week...

and I should be super defensive.

The Hamburglar..... So, they have started laughing at him..... Hey Dennis... your days are numbered. It's time to get your shit together, people can't believe the nonsense you throw out. There will be a limit.

Honestly, you need to think before you talk.

dollar is just killing it 1.435, which is sweet.

Maybe it's window dressing, maybe it's that my diet is filled with candy canes and sugar plumbs, and I'm not getting enough exercise...

But the market keeps climbing a wall of serious worry....

All I've been looking for is 13000.

This just smells like one of those times when the market gets into massive denial.

well maybe the market will stumble over that wall of worry.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Direction

I'm trying to come up with some plays in this market.....

Only thing I can come up with is the Farmer play......

In other news, I think this is a market looking for a short covering rally, which may get confused with a santa rally..

Mixed Messages

Like a confused mormon girl, the market is giving out Very mixed messages.

And of course keeps moving just the the point when I want to leave her alone, Then she sucks me back in.

Damn, Harpie

Not bullish enough to get long, not bearish enough to get short.

Funny

Being a closet narcissist(or not so), I was looking through blogs that talk about Dennis Kneale.

I saw some people quote me.

I kind of feel bad since Barry keeps being on CNBC, it can't help that I badmouth them.... Sorry buddy.

But I dislike that station, and think most investors would be better off without them.

Return of the Hamburglar


I was worried we would turn around mid-day... But Fortunately Mc-Buisness news-CNBC has brought the markets polly-anna Angel of death on: dennis kneale.
If you were a Bull, and you saw and heard this guy trying to make your case... You would sell too.
If anyone can send the market down it's him.

Interesting it's; Hamburglar, and not hamburgler.

Waiting

I've decided to wait till all things go bearish.... which is trying to show up as I type.... but not...

Nasdaq leading down, s&P and Russell

What a crazy correction in a down trend.... If it doesn't go bullish.

Market nature

Doesn't it seem like once it behaves in one way, it tends to change

I was looking at 67 on the iwm yeasterday

I seem to be generating broker fees....

we just may be bullish

Morning nonsence

Well My Elliot wave theory may be letting me down.... I figure we are at the start of wave 5 or end of wave C of a correction.

dollar is the same 1.439, and Libor is something...

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

This reminds me of how I use to trade.....

Funny with some holliday distractions, suddenly I'm not as disaplined as I use to be.

Better off sidelining myself...

ok, hang on.... Get my head in the game...

Thanksgiving Redux

So, much stuff going on. It all reminds me of thanksgiving, I have my mind and energy going in other directions, and I'm not paying attention to the price action....

My imagination says that this is mostly short covering... and it seems like they have been Conservative... I can't imagine the bulls will get fully engaged till 12800. But tons of things have hit near term lows...

The sell offs are looking thin to me.

I'm very distracted though..

Who else says they turn of the Tickers for a week?

Como'n paulson and the PPT.

Bottom Ticked

as you/I watch the ticker... and it just doesn't look like we can hold a bid. as I bang out my order, knowing I need to wait for a bounce to play itself out.....

What is it that rushes me, and then I catch that bottom tick, er near it..... as a reversal happens.

Everything tells me, that... No decent Santa rally, and it looks like we visit 12800... and we see how the knife catchers do..... umnnnn

and look at it this way 12000 is only 800 point lower...

I was running charts and if that happens I think there is a good bid at 12200 or so.

all kinds of things can happen that partial week of low volume.

Monday, December 17, 2007

Looking back

As I stare at the charts... and ponder why I was wrong about being range bound....

All of this is why it sucks to be a market timer.. but....


It's been such a long 6 months, I um need a few weeks off.... I'm not sure, I'm going to get them. But I ignored the market for most of the day, and just checked in to look for a bounce....
Look at that though, one hell of a third wave. It occured to me that maybe with all the unsurity, from last week, that everyone and their dog may jump in... Which is what I think happened today.
and of course I'm still looking for my Rally.
Regardless of the money I missed today... it feels good to be sidelined... I've done so well for so long....
and I'll take the pain of being ahead of the curve.
But look at that decline.... Comon' it's due for a bounce....
Not sure if it will be an intra day move.

Damn

Look at that... if you listen to CNBC you would think we were going to 12000

Interesting day

.... I swear when you look at Paulson, you look deep in the face of Hubris.... I'm saying this as a metaphore... But that guy is running for president.

I bet he is well meaning.... but Hubris.

if you want me to talk about my opnion of the plan... it's just not enough. I don't get why you would put this munch energy into a plan with such limited effect...

In fact there are no shortage of critics.. that say the worse thing you could do is hang onto your House.

I'm a little bumbed out I didn't hang onto my short positions till today... but still can't catch the bottom tick...

I'm a little suspect of my Econophysics though *chuckle*

This is a morning for Coffee

...and what morning isn't. Umn

How come retail analysts are so hot...er the female ones are.

I may just nap in my chair this morning, or crawl back in bed.

Futures....Monday

I was hoping for up 50 this morning... Lets see what happens..

It's what happens when only one index breaks the trading range....

Damn 1.4389 on the dollar.... Take that dollar bears


My libor servers are sucking... so no libor this morning

Tripple Witching

Ugh..... as well as I feel like I understand(or delude myself that I understand) the market ....FLOW....

one thing interferes with that and it's that special date, that comes up.....

OPTIONS EXPIRATIONS.. and it's derivatives... Double and Triple Witching....

Maybe it is the name that has me, but it's like Aunt Flow who visits the little misses, once a month......

apparently they bid up the opening tick... to either make the options Redeemable, but then let a sell off happen in the end of the day... reducing the value.... I'm just saying.... it fucks with the flow...


and now that I'm looking for a bounce to then short.... but... I have no stocks I'm thinking about or even a vague game plan... well maybe that is for the morning.

Sunday, December 16, 2007

Haphazard musings

Asuming we face a super cycle, and that equities are the crowded trade. Theory is that bonds have bottomed....

Sure I theorized about it... I have yet to put my money where my mouth is.stocks and bonds cartoons, stocks and bonds cartoon, stocks and bonds picture, stocks and bonds pictures, stocks and bonds image, stocks and bonds images, stocks and bonds illustration, stocks and bonds illustrations
I'm not big on "how can there be a recession when everyone is calling for one."

Well, what did kudlow, or one of his sidekicks say? " if there is a recession it will be the most widly predicted one."

The super bearish side of me says "Ya, that is because it will be a full on depression."

The Blog, and the consumer

I just want to take some time to thank anyone(or dare I say everyone) who reads this blog... The reason I post it is to help add to the "market of ideas" than helps me to measure investor sentiment.. Which then helps me make my investment decisions that help me make money.



I will never, give specific trades, not because I'm superstitious, and it will curse my trade, but because if I give them out, I get more emotionally involved in the investment, which is a total mistake when investing.....

I'm very Bearish on the economy, IMHO(or not so) I um.. I think this economy has gone no where for 5 years. It took me years to realize that the "new economy" was built on real estate speculation. I try to not let that affect my judgment....

But like in a bull, the best thing is to buy weakness, in a bear it's best to sell strength. Bear markets are very fast(IMO), so in a way it makes me nervous to not be short, especially since, to me it looks like the sky is falling.

Optimistically, I'm psyched for this to end, and Like a Phoenix rising from the ashes, our economy(both U.S. and Global) will rise to hopefully some great new brilliant heights....
(art stolen from here, Really amazing fractal art)
But we have a long way to go, but I have a lot of faith in human perseverance and adaptability. Both mine and everyone else's.. lots of challenges ahead, Let's bring them on....

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Inflation, Deflation

So, Kudlow and cramer, talk about them like they are opposing forces...

Daily reckoning talks differently... something about irresistible force, then the phrase immovable object(which is a semantic paradox)

I should reflect on it more... and in a closed system i believe you could fight deflation with inflation effectively..... Problem is it's an ever opening system.

big picture rants..

(I keep going on rants over at, the big picture, since it, and the other posters give me a ton of Food for thought. Then I never post that stuff over here, but I kind of think most the readers of this blog read that. But I regret somtimes that I don't post it over here.)

My understanding is this... and I'm not a fed guy Or economeister.at the regular fed window you can get money for Treasuries.. or other AAA High quality non-Real estate Assets.
At the discount window/and auction, you can trade AAA Derivative/Real Estate assets.
The banks who need liquidity, are trading their T-bills mostly, for cash from the fed, But they need more, especially with all the pending ARM resets.
So, they are doing the auction to get the banks some liquidity, from some of the best Real-Estate assets that they have. Without begging at the window...
I do think(for whatever that is worth) that they should lower the discount, and get them to beg at the discount window directly. If they aren't willing to beg, they shouldn't be given the cash....
maybe look at it this way... The danger of looking desperate, outweighs the benefit of marginal profits from refinancing the ARMs. So the move is to give the banks some cover to get enough liquidity to do some refinancing.
As an auction, it puts Say; Regional financial, or Colonial bank ... On par to score the extra cash, with Citi, Wamu, and all the assholes that created this mess..
Most the regional banks have been begging for money at 5-6% through CD's for months now. More to make loans, than to cover their Reserve ratios.If they can score Fed Money at the discount rate, they will be happy to take it, especially in a longer Term.
Dodging the moral hazard of providing liquidity and free cash for the big banks(Burned by the Depreciating CDOs to dump into equities speculation, which then reduces bond investment/savings.
Else, some of the money is going to European banks through the swaps(I guess this creates a Carry trade where they can Borrow at the Fed, and loan at libor and make money, and the fed can effectively loan at 3 month libor), who feel burned by this Fiasco, and providing them with liquidity. Goes further toward loosening LIBOR, and since we have been paying them off at .80 on the dollar to what they loaned us the money at...Cutting the Fed rate only goes to making that .75 cents on the dollar, which only lessens their willingness to loan us money to Refinance the Mortgages, and decreases the likelihood of them bidding up Equities with their Euro's and further Reduce Bond investment and savings.
That is my econo 101 understanding... Quickly Banged out like a typing monkey... But I'm still trying to understand it... and would be better off making some phone calls about it, or searching the web for an economist that I can understand with my 4th grade economics background.
So yes, not going to bail out Citi, but going to get some money to the Mortgages, and bring down the ARM rate. And not going to give cash to bid up Equities, and bring down the Dollar...
But it will get the money to the right place, instead of to the wrong places.
My overall Thesis over the next years will be that we come to terms with inflation, start Saving instead of spending. And stop using the market as a hedge against inflation.Markets have a tendency to work against the crowded trade, and for 30 years equities and Real estate have been the crowded trade, and My bet is we get a super-cycle reversal.

Black helo's and ron paul

I foolishly did a Youtube search of ron paul... and got sucked into every idiot Paranoid Scitzo, black helicopter survivalist .....Bullshit.

but it reminde me of this.
I like to use movies as a laging financial indicator.... you have to know what movies are being planed to have them be predictive.... like in 1987 when they made "Wall Street" that was the end of that massive bull cycle or close to.

When in 1983 and hollywierd made "The survivors" (survivalist/black helo/gold bugs)it shows the end of that Bear market. When Hollywood made that armageddon movie about nukear desaster "The day after" it shows the end of the big nuklear cycle/cold war. Hollywood is great to show maximum density in sentament...always behind the curve.

When they announce Wallstreet 2... I knew this cycle was very close to being finished....

I ask myself... what movies will show the end of the bear cycle

depressing sad movies like we had in 2003 house of sand and fog, cold mountain, monster, 21 grams, mystic river.
compair that with 2002: Unfaithful, the hours, chicago, adaptation... those are nothing compaired with 2003.....

nominated 1983 movies: Tender Mercies, The big chill, Terms of endearment, silkwood

so you want to know when this cycle ends.... remember we are close when you go to a movie and you walk out wanting to slit your wrists, or donate money to the salvation army.... one of the two.

Swing!!!!

Fridays are mistake days for me. By the time Friday comes around, with my cold/flu i'm fatigued and I'm prone to mistakes.. I closed out my shorts in the last minutes of trading....

All the other indexes besides the R2k... look range bound... so...Ya, I'm calling for a swing but it may not happen in all the indexes....

I'm not surprised that the dow is holding a bid, as many good multinational/industrial plays as there are in the dow... it should be the strongest index based on my market thesis.

But the S&P.... That fucking thing should be at 1450 easy... This fucking bouncing off 1480 and 1490, is fucking horseshit.

My Thesis is there are alot of half assed Hedgies out there who missed the bottom, and are just crazy to own things at 1470....... These are the assholes that are going to get us to 12000/1370.... But after Christmas.

My thesis is... ok... Maybe we leg down on Monday off the open... and I'll cry because I could have made a ton more money.... But.... we could stay range bound... but I'm looking for a short covering rally.... at which point I'll be shorting, we leg down to my fucking 12200, 1450 level. hold that bid for about 6 hours... Then the Xmas rally starts.. we ride to 1510. as assholes sell their losses and chase some winners......

I'll be looking to ride some Hyped up Nasdaq horseshit..... aapl, rim, grmn. maybe materials, steel mining oil.

Basically we ride through the new year, come back down under 1490.... then q4 earnings start.... and the tragedy begins, it's also possible we start getting lead up to Xmas retail numbers... and investors start slitting their wrists.... no shortage of denial so far.

I'm all in cash, if we leg down, I'll go long... if I'm correct and we go up, I'll catch the short side again.

My thesis on why we haven't bottomed: if the regional banks haven't bottomed, we haven't hit the bottom of the first leg of this Bear. Testing August is stupid, we never should have made the highs of sep-oct... The notion that we just "correct".

Friday, December 14, 2007

Sell off into the close... Lots of bulls with lots of stock, they don't want to own through the weekend.

Bears on the other hand will hold till a short covering rally

I love Jim Cramer

Like a brother, that I just think needs a wedgie..

I so disagree with him on the economics... IMHO he is pulling from the playbook that got us here, and not the one that will get us out. The inflation numbers show the inflection point... Either we can crash the dollar to get us out(and by crash I mean 10%) or, we can motivate savings....

I think this is fun either way.....

Chart Astrology...

HEY!!!! WE ARE RANGE BOUND!!!!
I call something 3 times and it's bound to happen once....

The Stars and my Cloudy crystal ball say this resolves with a 150 point down leg from neutral... Say 13425... Target 13275... Probably 13300
Then... Massive short covering Rally... Then new leg down... to my 13000-13200 level....
Ok enough of my bullshit predictions....
Look for a move up or down... and be ready to move counter to it.... Anything beyond 13350 on the down side or... 13530.... What I'm saying a small Significant move in one direction will resolve in the opposite direction for a day or so.
The Russel looks weaker, and like I said the up side moves look thin....
Update;(it's not very predictive if it happens while I type)

Liesman......

I like the guy, and he is trying to do a good job....

BUT...

That asshole/Moron is picking yet another BOTTOM!!!

I'm going to be hard here...

I quote him "I'm going ot make a risky call here, and call a bottom in the credit crunch with this CITI write down"

To start off, HE SAID THAT LAST TIME THEY WROTE DOWN 10 BILLION....

and let me tell you something you fucking faggot(no offence to the homosexuals) its a FUCKING RISKY CALL IF YOU PUT 10% of YOUR TRADING ASSETS AT RISK...... THAT IS A RISKY CALL...... all you are risking is LOOKING LIKE A FUCKING TALKING HEAD MONKEY, FOOL!! big risk for a guy who already does.

Nice "risky call" for a .50 rate cut. last week.....

I may start a feature.... Liesmans stupid "Risky" Call of the week.

Now excuse me while I take my medication.

inflation

Sociological test on inflation:

if the fed is doing a good job, if given a choice between buying something 10 years ago or now.... spending 10,000

Gold, Gas, oil, Wheat, Copper, silver, Euro's....

Sounds like they are doing a shitty job.

There is a good looking bid

Wonder if the shorts will turn it around...

The market is showing much more stregnth over the past 2 days, than I expected... Makes me think there was alot of short covering yesterday, as opposed to longs who needed to jump out of the market this morning.

Lets see what happens.

I've called my shot 13200 is my target today... which is a huge 300 point decline

13200 Here we come

Damn did the horseshit Inflation numbers come in even higher than expected....

overnight libor 4.3 looks like it could bottom at about 4.2%

4.99 3month libor.... Not showing a bottom yet (this just means I can't speculated on when the decline of it's downward move... most optimistically 4.8-4.85

don't you wish I tracked the spread.... that looks to me like it's maintaining the same spread with the fed fund rate, as pre fed cut.

1.446 is a great rate for the dollar euro... haven't seen that in months.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Gartman Hates Uncle Ben.

. He went on to say that Ben Bernanke has lost his confidence and needs to leave. Gartman predicts that for the balance of the year the market is going down and he would short more if the market takes out recent lows

Kirk says Run

We will see better days, but this is not the time for hope and faith that all is well. The market is sending us a message - are you listening?

Howard is going short.... does that mean go long.... His exuberence was part of what got me out of equites up top.

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Black Helocopters

.... I'm a total counter Conspiracy theorist, this country has too many loudmouths to keep a good secret.....

Schiff was hinting at the Plunge protection Team, and their interference in the market...

I'm not a conspiracy guy, I do smell some weirdness in the futures, which never seem to be down... for the past month. In a decidedly bear market you would think that they would be at least 50/50 down.

The biggest problem with this stuff is that it just leads to a market crash if it's actually going on... Markets are organic, and you can only manipulate them so much... short term it works... But only the dumbest of people want to hold stocks based on Flat earnings...

Only good reason to hold most equities is as a hedge against inflation...

The morning action did look like a deliberate attempt to set off a short covering rally.

They gave us less than 30 minutes to react to

If this is true, Paulson and Dubja, suffer from the worst kind of hubris, the kind of Hubris that kills economies.... Kind of idiocy that makes you think that Paulson really does think he is a master of the universe.

http://www.mises.org/books/bubbleworld.pdf
I just posted that link because I wanted to read it.

Feeding the inner gambler

.... so, This has been Rough. Someone called me today, and I said "This is the nastiest week of trading I've ever played. "Right, So I put in a short position on Monday, Then I back it up before the fed on Tuesday. It Rolls in my favor to the tune of $4(per share)... I let it ride. I almost didn't, But Elliot Wave says 2 corrective moves, and I only count one.... Let me just tell you how Tight my nuts squoze when I saw the futures go 270 positive.... Never seen that in my life, and I'm short....

"I'm like... Well "what" it could go, 3 points against me, I'll cover and break even..... And Don't panic..... We open and the market settles.... I'm $1 against me... which is my risk tolerance, every trade I'm prepped for it to go $1 against me, and I cover... I sit and watch.... over an hour suddenly I'm up $1...... GOOD GOD.

End of the day, I'm up again $5. Saying I'm going to cover, and I see other people covering..... The gambler/contrarian in me says "you know if other shorts are covering, it means there will be plenty of money on the short side of the market, sidelined waiting to crush the bulls tomorrow.... So... Why miss the opportunity of a down 50 gap down, then wait for the opportunity to jump in, and miss $1 or $2 on the downside... I know if I look back on it and execute better, I could gain $1 or whatever. I've played this before, and I'm more likely to lose downside than gain it..... so, I stayed pat......
When I realize that what I am doing is what everyone else is doing, and then work counter to it, try and be ahead of the curve, I feel better about my trades...... And usually I don't get burned.

So, I'm listening to Peter Schiff...... Ben Stein apologises to Peter Schiff. Peter is fun, I'm not a coolade drinker, but he is super smart, and it's always interesting to hear what the Super Bear has to say.

Do I dare

Do I keep it rolling.... Keep on hanging on count on more bad news......

or the end of an eliot wave....

I love the econophysics guy... To bad he wasn't nominated for the nobel for econophysics.... Oh.. They don't have one.

Next steps

..... As I sit here, extra coin in pocket.... I start thinking about my next steps......When today do I cash out? what then? is the market going to 12000? will it catch a bid between now and then? or do people wait to fill their christmas stockings with stocks?

Where is the market going, with the notion of more liquidity..... will this be easier? will this just delay it till 4q earnings?


all of this, when really I just need a nap.....

do I risk it again, and ride short positions through the close.....

Well I had a good morning

Now I is playing with house money......

I'd love for this day to pan out to the negative.... But I'm so fricking tired, my cold/flu and this nasty....

Hey Ben, with all due respect, for the "open fed" you sure are fucking it up...

And .... We wanted to do this when the market was open.... how about if your not going to do something at the meeting, you do it and announce that it is going to happen.

I can tell

today is going to take a lot of coffee

Sweet

Another brilliantly executed, break even trade.



maybe if I don't panic here I can pull in a few bucks.

For the 20th time on CNBC

Sudden Rate cut Rumors abound on Wallstreet, all assisted by CNBC.... As Wallstreet tries to sucker a falling market into a short covering rally...

question is if it will work..... Again.

Futures

I put a tremendous amount of weight on the morning futures,

+/- 50 is a neutral day

Greater than +50, is a fairly bullish day.

Less than -50 is a bearish day.

Let me also qualify, that any number of Extremely Bearish days have started in the Green.




These strong morning futures tell me we could be stuck, range bound in here +/- 200 for a few days. (let me further qualify that every time I've predicted range bound in the past weeks, we have gone bullish)

First on CNBC... Becky Quick is concerned that buffet thinks we are going into recession..
(maybe she is switching from the "crisis of confidence" camp to the "R" word camp)

Oh, and it looked to me that Carl Quintanilla was trying to imply that rick santelli was part of the black helicopter crowd..... They should switch to Dennis Kneal 24/7... See how the ratings hold up.

Futures arn't actually anything but a bet.... and can be very wrong....

But an up 200 day is just the pummeling that will drive both the bulls and bears nuts.

fucking Shit.

First on CNBC.........

No coverage of the UBS 10 Billion writedown, (this was 2 days ago)........ but barely mentioned

Then continue to speculate and repeat that "The fed May cut more, between now and next meeting"...... Repeat till balloon re-inflated.

Also, idea that the fed will create Special Fed "SIV" like window, Like the discount window, without the that Nasty Transparency.... Because Bullshit Wool over our eyes is better than knowing what is going on.....

The idea that the banks will go bankrupt because the have to line up to the Stigma of the Discount window..... "Woes to the bank that lets anyone know that there are problems."

Wall Street really is made up of a bunch of little girls in dresses, acting like men.


First on Bloomberg TV.....

Apparently, Weak dollar means imports............... More expensive.

I wrote this and couldn't delete it, or post it to comments.

Mike,
Hopefully this comes off like I'm not taking issue with you. Since I'm not and I was mostly jokeing.
I joke, and honestly this is serious business. I honestly want no one to lose money, and we could have tolerated a .50 cut without pushing the Peso/dollar off a cliff.
Yes, there are things they could still do.. But it will only go to their lack of competence to come back in 3 days and change the reserve ratio, or lower the discount window... or other things, which comes in like they were "late with their homework"
Without doing a thesis of Risk Vs. Reward, and how lack thereof started this Fiasco..
and the obscene idea that the fed would try and pull the risk from the market, and create and even more catastrophic event that the one they/congress/and the consumer already built.
The market coming down could...
Pull the steep end of the yield curve down, lowering the Mortgage rates.
Also... force more money from equities to cash, providing more Liquidity for the banks.
The Biggest problem in my guesswork/estimation is that Europe/Asia won't loan us a nickle.... Because
1. we pushed off a few hundred Trillion in Bad loans off on them(no worries, that is only 4x our GDP).. No worries we called it AAA, and now it's A or B rated.
2. What we are paying back, on that paper, we are paying off at .80 on the Dollar.
3. We are seen as the biggest bunch of Toothless/ loan Welshing Hicks on the planet.
That is why we have a credit crunch, not because of loose money or tight money, but because we(our financial system) tried to rip off the people loaning us money, and they turned off the spigot... Now all that comes out is Dirty Pee water(AKA the remaining American Liquidity, that investors aren't smart enough to move out of the country).
But sure, "we will pay it back THIS time", we sound like my sister.
To me it's good to hear that we could keeping a bid in the dollar, and show some integrity, to the world that we won't print our way out of our debt. by pushing the Dollar down another 20%.
I keep having these crazy ideas, that my bank could come to me and make me a great offer, for them to borrow some of my Cash... Like, say at 15%, and make it worth my while to provide them with liquidity... as opposed to the Fed pushing the Fed Funds down below Mainline, and definatly below what I see as Actuall inflation...
Crazy stuff like that may get some of the people with cash around the world to provide some Lequidity... as opposed to "Printing Fake Dollars." from the Lender of First resort. Trying to Reflate every bubble popped in the past 30 years. Maybe if we pump hard enough we can Bring Back The housing boom, tech 1.0, japan, S&L, Bellbottoms, and Stagflation.... oops did I just say that.
sorry this has deteriorated into a rant... and I'm about to go off about how all our natural resourses are owned by Non U.S. companies, and this will probably give them the opertunity to buy up the rest.
But as The talking Morons on the TV and Media say "The weak dollar is good for us.... ya... for us, to destroy what remains of the middle class, and push them into indentured servitued untill they Revolt. No worries, keep them filled with Fudruckers hohos and dingdongs, and sitting in front of their Flat Screen and X-box, Watching the last 50 years of "I love Lucy", "Seinfeld", and "Friends" till they are 400 pounds and they will never be able to load up the guillotine...... but that is super Bullish for stocks!!!!!

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Forbes..... Candy bar


Steve Forbes, I thought referred to "Candy bar inflation" on Kudlow.... I was honored he read my blog... then I looked up "candy bar inflation" and apparently some do, use it as a metric.

Of course then he *smirked*..... oh!!! Mr. Forbes, do not doubt the power and simplicity of candy bar inflation. You and your black helicopters of the "Scull and bones" "One World Order", Crowd....

You can not hide behind your complex, convoluted formulas, hiding the fact that Even at 3% growth, my salary is still falling far behind inflation.

Concoct your Basket of goods to offset more expensive everything with ever speeding Technology(Sir, did we offset the cost of a plane ticket, as the speed of the planes(or cars) increased).And do we increase the Calories required in the basket of offset the ever expanding Median Waistline???..
I know you want me to Maintain being a Slave of the Aristocracy By destroying the Dollar, with your fed printing machine. More as a demand to protect you and your stock holdings against that same inflation, which is destroying our economy. (this is all said tongue in cheek... and was just fun to Pen.... or let my monkey fingers randomly bang out on my Keyboard)

But i am thinking about how I should Freeze Candy bars them, and then I can use them as a hedge against inflation, or as a bribe during Armageddon to stop people from killing me..... Better than Wheat..

Just playing... I don't do the Armageddon trade in anything but bullets.

It's been a long and stress full couple of days, with some good trading......

And Like I said, As the Bears Bet on Hyperinflation, and the Bulls bet on Hyperinflation.... I'm a contrarian... I'll bet the falling market.

My full cup of coffee ...

Ready to roll... trading terminal is humming...

this was a good story....

Basically applying physics to the fed model... Every action has an equal and opposite reaction.

You have to acknowledge the problem when the lender of last resort, is becoming the lender of first resort.

The notion of the Fed, to create a hedge against rapid inflation, should cut rates... That is what the market is asking.

As I wait for the impending financial doom of the fed's 2 point rate cut......

I've been reading some of the comments or blog stories about .... About the owners of the CDOs returning them to the seller.....

Also here

originally from the SF Gate

I find this unlikely, That is an opinion piece... I have no idea how to check the facts. Maybe the contracts allow them to find individual mortgages that ....... The buyers had to know what they were.... They purchased them knowing that they were sub prime, no doc... but they were insured. Beyond that when moodys says they were AAA but now are A, that is within the process. And honestly that isn't fraud.... Now maybe if there was a blatant lie on a specific mortgage, a specific Fraud, then I guess it could be returned to the Mortgage company, who is probably out of business at this point.

As we/I wait for Uncle Ben to blow my short positions away with a 3point cut, Which will ensure the market going to infinity, and me going broke.(because smartly I don't own enough equities to hedge me against inflation.)

Liesman(I only caught about 30 seconds of it,) "Well Rick you could be The ECB, and have one arm caught behind your back because you can only fight inflation."

What is wrong with that, I continually lament that maybe in Euro's at least a Candybar will stay .50. and always buy the same things at the same prices... Wouldnt' that be novel..... I would love to see such a financial crisis that globally the Euro becomes the currency, because it doesn't inflate or deflate.

and who are they beholden to... Is it really that the currency isn't there to deflate or inflate at the whim of the econo-morons.

Funny, "the Euro" the money that was built to well.

5.1333 for 3 month libor, still coming down(see how The Uk cutting has helped)
4.54 for overnight...

1.475 overnight low for the dollar. that is roughly the quarter point cooked back in the cake. the speculation over then next month will probably make new dollar lows..

of course if they cut .5 all bets are off.

But, I'm in the .50 camp..... The Fed Is fucking Crazy, and is the Market's Bitch.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Yep, should have been more cautous

fun little beating I'm taking..... I swore I wasn't trading till tomorrow, at least it's just a small position.

More nonsense about being short

You know, you look at the ticker, and you see it's looking a little weak, so you sort of load up your little Pea shooter, and hit at it. and hope that the rest of the Calvary come in, and help you out... or else you just lost one of your arrows, with nothing to show for it.(No meat for my proverbial Bear to eat)

As I initiated my short, I did exactly the wrong thing, I chased the position instead of letting it come to me.

Which means I get some pain...
It's what I get for still being sick and trading.

But I have faith in the weakening Ticker.


CNBC... "does talking about a recession make it happen?"

Me, "if talking about something made it happen, I'd get laid 24/7"

It's called cause and effect... Shoving your head up your ass, just makes things worse.


Dennis, cramer, ???????, Erin???

Malissa said something to Dennis beneath her breath, about "oh No recession?, sounds like someone who doesn't trade."

I still like cramer...

as right wing goofy as Melissa can be, I like her.. I give street cred to anyone who has put their capital out there, being right or wrong, either way... your ass is on the line.. and you get some street cred for that.

Hamburgler???? Dennis Kneal


MCBuisness TV....
‘fast, accurate, actionable and unbiased business news’

Well this move in the dow looks like a reversal to me.... I can't belive we are all the way up to 13700

dennis Kneale

Dennis Kneale...

So, herb greenburg says "Dennis, you just want to think about this as subprime, and it's not it's prime mortages too."

Dennis Kneale "You just want to think it's more, because you hate america."

He should have brought in the baby jesus too...


So Fuck it, I took the Dennis Kneal "Go Short Signal"

it's a smaller position, I'll wait till tomorro to increase it....

I'm nervous about an end of the day buy up of the market... I hate being behind on a trade.

Friday, December 7, 2007

I saw this... Let me tell you about Salt lake Real Estate....

There are 5 houses for sale within 200 yards of my home, which weren't there 1 year ago. In addition there are 5 lots for sale. Umn.... the new homes they wanted 400K for in the spring, now they want 260K... But yes, the market is "Booming" according to this article.

and if you believe the story, I have a bridge to sell you. I'm sure if the numbers are correct, it's because from last year to the beginning of this year, there was appreciation. 20 miles south there are some full subdivisions that they can't give away at cost.....

The only ones able to sell are the people looking to dump their home at significant price cuts.

and to be honest it's just that Utah is an economic and social laggard.

Some kind of complete thought would be nice

Just like all, fucking shell games, of course the rules change.

I had some ideas about the how much I'd love to have a currency that was completely immune to manipulations and inflation.

As the market goes up and down 15 pts....

Equities have priced in a .50 cut, cause Kudlow says so. But we will wait for fed day to make the adjustment to, the reality.

It's funny, with my cold I'm even more convoluted and living in my own zone than usuall.

What is interesting....

I do like my new phrase "McBuisness T.V." for CNBC.

So, the market will be relativly flat(with ups and downs) till 4q earnings. then we should get a new down leg... if we don't get it in jobs.

Stagflation sounds fun to trade too.


I seem to be flu ridden... so, I'll just rest up till next week.

Thursday, December 6, 2007

cool rally today

I'm so congested.. very glad I got out of the way today... But I'm betting there were a lot of shorts that had to get out of the way, not because of the jobs but because of uncle ben.

I'm still sore from a short I rode into the august fed.. and waiting is so much more profitable..

My bet is there are alot of people like me, who when we did rally had to get out of the way.. Hence the rally.

I bet we rally all the way into the fed, then it's game back on.

It honestly .. The little money I lost... I'm so much more excited to crush the rally if the fed doesn't give the market a .75 cut..

and honestly with the notion of stagflation..... Someone may need to take a page from Volker

"We are Saved" Daddy came to get us.

I'm waiting for some fucking moron to say "I don't think this subprime thing is over yet."

Wallstreet loves a bail out. as long as it's them that gets the free lunch.... how if the fed just pays off the debt and mortgages till it's gone..... oh wait that is the plan.

Wall street pussies.

I'm buying home depo.

Wet sock, baloon

This is like getting pummeled with a wet sock, or a balloon.... it's amusing for a little bit, then you don't care, let's go up or down... Let's just resolve this.

That is it not playing... Lost a little money.

I can't get involved in the long side of this market... I'm just going to wait for a real turn... It wants to run.

U.S. Home delinquincys Hit

The quarterly survey found the delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four unit residential properties was 5.59% during the third quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis. That represented an increase of 47 basis points from the second quarter of this year and 92 basis points from the third quarter of 2006.


6% of mortgages are delinquint is a good thing.... Market is going to the moon!!!!!!!

I mean it's not like it's 50%...
Glass half full kids... more than... 95% full...
I mean, it's not like people are losing their jobs...
They arn't losing their jobs and still in forclosure.
The moon Baby!!! Fed is going to cut 2 pts.
Christmas Rally!!! I'm a Contrarian... I'm getting long... Hell I'm getting long....
I'm buying Home Depo.

Just fucking around here.

so I listened to peter schiff last night, that was fun. Worked up about the "Bail Out"... the Gov. is just giving this lip service, they won't get serious till 2008. The idea that they can be proactive is a joke.... I mean come on... They can't pave roads.

But wall street will be happy with any bail out....

I still like my plan of liquidating CFC C and Morgan, and using that money to buy all the loans. Insurers too...

Damn

4am my time futures were up 70 now down 25

I still expect a little morning run, but any good weakness I'm looking to chase to dump my shorts.

Though I have some fantasies about the unwind of all the weak dollar plays today...

I mean the dollar is back to 1.459... which is off it's lows.... but the BOE does help Libor.

hmmm... if we don't cut... that could do more to reduce the spread than cutting.??

I don't know.

Betting on a yawner

We roll back to 1475... and call it a day... wait for the numbers...

I bet my trade is up $100 at that point... after 5 days.. I could have a job at 2 bucks an hour have made that.... maybe I'd be up $150.

So BOE cut .25 and the ECB cut 0.... you know what is great about the Euro, and why it will continue to go up. is that it's goal is to protect against inflation..... and it goes to show what a shell game Fractional Reserve banking is. When you only guard against inflation, it means that all the inflation shell game currencies show their pathetic ass against it. Hopefully the Europeans will stick with it.

But, seems like the BOE did more for libor than we could have with a .5 cut... unless the jobs suck... don't count on anything more than a .25.

Interesting thought of the morning

(well I find it interesting)

we have been doing so many weak dollar plays.... Seems like they get to unwind today.???

Ugh

This isn't good, I'm just sucking it up.... and I'm ready to make some mistakes today....

I'm going to figure out how to preserver capital.

trying to remember if I should stick to the plan, or .....

The gold trade I made is at par... I'm not sure about materials plays with the dollar where it is. If the fed cuts .25 the inflation plays will be stuck.......

and I can't figure out how to play it.

The conglomerate plays are going no where.

.......

Like I said, I'm having a hard time with the crystal ball.

Shit, does this mean I play tech?

overnight libor effectively unchanged 4.695
3 month libor 5.151 first day of unchanged 3 month libor, forever.

Lot's of Profit taking, bid on the Dollar 1.455.. haven't seen that number since November 12.

Like this the fed can cut .5... and it also says the fed won't cut .5.

I have a little cold...and I don't want to play, I may see what I can do in the premarket...

ECB rate cut decision is up soon.

Something says rally... unless I buy it. This is a terrible entry point for me.

I honestly may cash out till things are clearer..

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Would you believe that my elliot wave theory says we bounce of 1490 in the morning...

Other than that, on all indexes, it says a small morning run maybe gap up then a correction,

then I bet 1475 into the employment... which is the 50% retracement.

Now the Dow, actually invalidated it's Wave...

But the dow and the S&p are ready to make higher highs than the Friday high.

and the nasdaq looks ..... Bearish .... and should correct...

As everyone says.. mixed signals.... and I for one don't want to play...

I find mixed signals to be Bearish... but that doesn't mean that things wont line up and go on the march...
I'm willing to take some pain to see how the elliot wave corrects.... but I'll chase it after that with a stop.

well, I wish I wasn't playing....

and my gold miner, besides a little bit of gain yesterday.... Flat....

I may be on a cold streak.

I may have the rose on the wrong direction.

My favorite thing about the Internet these days is waiting for the server that has the big fat ad, to deliver it to me, because they don't have any bandwidth, and apparently I have to wait for it's delivery

I have to remember about the noise in this market

So.... The market is indecisive... Which Bites, cause it just acts crazy.

So... if the gov forces the ARMs not to adjust, doesn't that mean the CDO's get written down even more...

The ARM CDO's which were going to pay 9%, are now going to stay at 5%.... Nice for the Government to make them even less liquid.... and worth less.
,
so your mortgage was calculated for 30 years with the resets... now, since now your not paying on the equity for another 5 years... 40 years?

this is like the gift that keeps on giving.

I say the governments Seizes Citi, Countrywide, Morgan... and the rating agencies, hmmm sells them off to the highest bidder, and uses that money to pay off the mortgages.

It's times like these that I feel like I give the market credit for being just a little smarter than it is.... Of course there are those periods of denial.

this market wants to go higher

I'm not covering my shorts today, I'm up on all of them... still... Bairly.

I think it's time for that Up day, down day, up day, Down day, volatility.

As the bulls hang their hats on Flat earnings.... Hyperinflation.... and Christmas? oh, and people not losing their jobs. Sweet, So optimistic, the outlook for the future.

This very much reminds me of the august rally.... Lot's of denial, and crazy "world economy will need stuff, that stuff will have chips."... Regardless of inventories, lack of demand, lack of shipment....

how desparate are the credit card companies for money

Watch for Credit Card Interest Changes

In February, Hard noticed that despite her payments, the balance was "barely moving."

A phone call to Discover solved the mystery, but not the problem: The company had increased her interest rate from 18 percent to 24.24 percent after running a spontaneous credit report that showed her other credit card balances and available credit on inactive accounts put the family at a higher risk of defaulting on their payments...

DJ is comming to get me

MBIA Capital Position Worse Than Previously Thought.

MBIA Inc. (MBI) is at greater risk of having insufficient capital to maintain its triple-A rating than previously thought, Moody's Investors Service said Wednesday as it reviews the capital of financial guarantors.

Moody's now considers the large bond insurer "somewhat likely" to have insufficient capital to weather the deterioration of the securities they guarantee, which include collateralized debt obligations backed by subprime mortgages.

The ratings agency still considers CIFG's rating as the most likely to fall under capital benchmarks for a triple-A rating, even though the insurer late last month announced it will receive an $1.5 billion cash infusion "that would significantly reduce that risk," Moody's said

. Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. (FGIC), Security Capital Assurance (SCA) and Ambac (ABK) are also considered "somewhat likely" by Moody's to have insufficient capital to support their ratings.

A downgrade of insurers - even if by one notch - could trigger massive repricing of the securities they wrap, or insure. About 45% of the investment-grade municipal bond market is insured, according to the Lehman Brothers Municipal Index. Insurers' wraps, because of the ratings of their firms, give bonds AAA ratings.

Market participants fear that distrust of the entire bond insurance industry could result from a downgrade of just one or two firms.

MBIA's credit default swaps, which measure investor views on company's creditworthiness, widened to 430/475 basis points after the news, according to Lindsey Spink at Robeco Weiss Peck & Greer. At its tightest today, MBIA CDS was 400 basis points, he said. It closed at 430/460 basis points on Tuesday. These levels, however, reflect the double-A rating of the holding company rather than the triple-A insurance rating. .

CBC IS RETARDED TO NOT KNOW THIS IS HUGE!!!!!

what happend to the florida Money Market will Multiply!

Super fun

It's just plain ignorance that the market doesn't realize that the possibility MBIA being downgraded isn't very significant. I can imagine Trading rooms around the world going...

What a minute, is this important? and meetings being scheduled, I remember a week ago, the idea of MBIA being downgraded was laughed off cnbc.... of course CNBC should be laughed off the air... But the dude who won an Emmy Faber, I'm always glad to listen to him.

Wow.... just talked about how important, the gap from Libor to fed funds rate is...

Besides Nuking Euro banks.... it's hard to change... and if only Americans saved instead of spent......

Hmmmm except that why save at 5%.... Which is set by Libor BTW. I love that the bank gives me 5% and bonds give less....

Shouldn't we get that employment whisper number soon.

moodys

mbia has been downgraided by moodys for a possible cash shortfall.

Damn... Nice Rally

Moral Hazard...

So, the market doesn't skip a beat when it comes to Super Siv's, and bank Bailouts....

Fed Rate cuts.

But the Borrowers..... and people preyed upon by countrywide and Citi....

Now there is a moral hazard....

The moral hazard has been years of bailing out Big bloated uncompetitive(noncompetitive) businesses.

ok.... asuming we don't get higher.... Range bound 13400-13200 Rest of the week.

Back to oil

Back to 95 in oil....

looks like the oil traders have been burned, .

and.....

Have I mentioned a Tale of 2 markets... Technology higher highs higher lows, Russel lower lows lower highs... and the Dow and the NASDAQ in between.

This is funny... I get a call....

"hello"

"What the hell is going on with the market!!! someone said biggest gain in 4 years, I check my 401K, it's down 20%."

Me, " you don't check your 401K very much do you. We are going into a recession, get out of anything consumer, and into Mega, and multinationals, Maybe Materials..... Except, you have taken a lot of pain, so if your in a non money center financial, stay with it."

"Huh"

"Ya, either show up here with beer, and I'll scare the shit out of you, or Leave me alone, I'm not your financial advisor."

Stagflation

I'm working on a stagflation song..... it's the song in my heart for this economy....

I'm wondering how to play it....

gold? materials? conglomerates?

isn't stagflation a lot like inflation...... only less growth...

Interesting....

The Russel is dying....

technology is strong
transport
energy
conglomerates
basic materials....

All strong...

The semi's are strong, the bodes well for technology.

The S&P looks like it wants to brake 1480 really bad.

I DONT WANT TO PLAY.....

there can't be much up move on short covering because the decline has been on fairly low volume.
Also, sloppy shorts may not be involved,

All this means... if the bulls want it, they have to earn it.

overnight libor-4.659 its been in a tight range up and down for days yesterday up, today down

3 month libor, up again 5.151

The dollar, since the employment report went from 1.471 to 1.4675.... Dollar guys say no 50 point rate cut.

Stagflation

With strong... with half assed employment... sounds like the fed is going to give us a 101 course of fighting stagflation... Wonder if Uncle Ben as studdied that..... In fact they are better to force the recession than 2 years of the great stagflation.

Super fun!!!!!!

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Well, you could say this was the end of an Elliot wave... well maybe small finish in the morning.

for so much negative sentiment, sure are a lot of dip buyers.

Seems absolutely crazy to me.... Suckers everywhere buying at this level.

umn... i'm super surprised we don't at least test 13100...

slow punishing decline... I'm very ready to cash out, play some other way, some other day.

see what the morning brings.

this may just be a turn.

I haven't charted out the day...

Why when I watch Fast money do I feel like I'm being yelled at......

Though Karen doesnt' believe in Chart-ology

1.476 on the peso....

Oh.... On a whim, I purchased a gold miner... Why? it's a trade, I'm going to hang onto it till the fed, then I'll dump it. or I hang onto it as a hedge against hyperinflation.....

I want to hear 3/4 point cut.

oops missed the futures

down 74 :(

The rate cut-and a yard sale

Well Leisman has drunk the coolaid.... I mean look at the guy.... of course he is a cool-aid drinker.

Funny, Kudlow is going to talk the market into a .50 and if it doesn't happen...... it will have the reverse effect he was hoping for...

Like I'm saying, the bears are betting hyperinflation, the bulls are betting hyperinflation... I'm sticking to my Contrarian call... Falling market.

Kudlow is playing us.

Why is having a Yard sale(falling dollar) on american assets a good thing? Why does anyone with a brain think it's a good thing?

Overnight libor. down a little 4.705... 4.716

LIBOR 3 Month Up again 5.141 5.131

EURO- Back to 1.4744

if the dollar is this week, I can't see a .50 cut... but I don't know.

my futures guess at the open(unadjusted for fair value) 53.

Monday, December 3, 2007

Nice little late day rebound... Wonder if she will stick

I think overall the bears are just getting their groove on.

Best performing regional banks I'm tracking

Cullen Frost CFR up .06%
hban down .35%
bbt -Down .33%
CBSH down .40%
CNB down .52%
RF down 1.59%

I'm rooting for a down 70 day..... sorry

This almost looks neutral, and if we close above 50 without going down 90 and the russle (IWM)staying above 75.8... one could make that case.

Update: Sorry Kids... New lows all indexes... Bearish

Paulson

Can I name him Mo.....

No matter what they do... without the fed paying the mortgage for them...

Borrowers won't be able to go from a 1-2% Teaser, and hang onto it...

Sure They can get a 6-7% instead of 9%... but how much will that help?

Are you buying up here? with flat earnings, and a slowing economy? weak consumer?

This reminds me of the Bush proposal... what was it? to throw a few drips of water on a fire.

Charming is, it seems like all of this stuff is just intended to delay the inevitable.

I hit the futures this morning by 2 at the open they were Down 42 with fair value at neg 25.

down 40 was my guess.... it was sketchy there for a bit. as they rose to roughly Zero for much of the morning.

For about 5 mintues I Felt Bullish, as the idea that we could push all these credit problems, and housing depression... out of our mind, and remember the baby jesus.....

Then I rememberd the flat earnings for the past 6 months, oil still isn't going below 65, and the eggs I purchased this weekend were still $2.50. and the consumers are buying Ipods and not big Screens :(

I'm trying to remember how far the indexes fell, last time I felt Bullish.

Some Musings...

On friday, Some Asshat was smirking at santelli...... I'm willing to throw out my .... Lets just say I'm a huge fan of Santelli.

When Santelli was bemoaning that we should just go long certain stocks and not go short anything, for fear of the fed.

Asshat chuckling, " oh, that must be a sign of capitulation."

all weekend I've been wondering, if that is true... which in a way it is... But... does that mean it's the bottom of the bond market? does that mean we are at the top of the stock market? or does that mean the yields are going to go up? Does that mean a flattening of the yield curve?

Still wondering what the bottom of the bond market is, and what it says.

The important question of the morning... What am I going to do for Breakfast? Yogurt and fruit?

Michelle Caruso Cabrera Sure did get worked up this morning about Chavez, I like Chavez, just because he called Bush a Jackass. It sounds like he isn't doing well running the financial system in Venezuela, and I'm sure he does many things wrong... and I'm not taking sides... I'd love to see a good healthy democracy there.... Hell I'd love to see a good healthy democracy here.

I digress, Michelle was so agitated, she could bairly form a sentence.... WOW!!!. She was emotionally distressed, her leg was shaking, stuttering.... you know what it makes me think, I think she is somehow related to the Aristocracy in Venezuela.

From what I just looked up... umn she has just reported about Latin America..... seems weird she would be so agitated.

Honestly, I just want to see Bush get called a Jackass some more....

Honestly, chaves needs to learn diplomacy.

Overnight libor. UP 4.716 From 4.6943

LIBOR 3 Month 5.131 (unchanged, but it looks like an eror)

EURO- 1.465- From 1.475.... Hey that is good.


What is intersting to me, is that the Euro is down, gold is down, the commodities trades are weak....

all of this says no big rate cut, and no inflation......
Maybe that will be next weeks bet, before the fed......

How can all the fair value be flat except the dow...

My bet on the futures..... Down 40 at the open (wishfull thinking :) )

Sunday, December 2, 2007

Lets talk range bound

Between Tuesday and Friday between now and the fed. Ending at 1447.5.... The 50% retracement


Between now and Earnings........

Range bound between Fridays high, and the March lows. Settling at 1428, The 50% retracement.

All asuming 2 quarter point rate cuts.

Talk about Balsy calls......

Chart Fun


This is why I bet the Bear... Decelerating Bullsh movements... Accelerating Bearish movements.

Fun with photoshop

Hey what can you expect for 30 minutes on a Sunday night...

As the bulls bet Hyperinflation, and the Bears bet hyperinflation.....

as a contrarian... I say... Falling stock market.

The Game is on for the next 2 weeks...

Just to show what a lunatic I am...(if you havn't figured that out already)

I posted this to his blog:

This is some charming, Rationalizations to set off Hyperinflation...


I hope it works out for you, because it is doubtful it will be anything
but bad
for anyone else. I'm still wondering if it's just some sick sense of
humor you
have.


Should the end of the story said "Disclosure Long Gold, and Swiss
Franc."


Mr Cowan you're either a crazy imbecile, or an epic profiteer Hoping
to capitalize on the Financial destruction of the lower and remaining Middle
classes. With no moral regard for the Human cost of a Collapsing Dollar.


This was my favorite part:


The American economy has its problems, but so far the
low value
of the dollar has proved more a benefit than a cost.


Let me add the Caveat... Unless you eat food and energy, or buy
things in dollars(Costs that have doubled in past years), Or live in a global
economy.


Mr. Cowan, I do hope you can live with yourself, living in such a
way: As babies start to die, of malnourishment and lack of health care in a
super cycle recession. The lower class decays into civil war and drug addiction.
Baby boomers Crush what little
economic strength we have left.

You will know that you did your part, to be more a part of the problem, than
the solution. Helping to bring about the great Libertarian Revolution... Being a
Zealot works out so well for the Taliban and PETA and the Militant Christian
Right.

I ask a hypothetical question of you? is the real problem that you just
haven't received enough hugs in your life?


In fact I feel dirty just taking the time to acknowledging, your
existence.... It's embarrassing to even challenge you.


I am as amoral as they come when it comes to my money, and investing. But I don't do things to publicly support it one way or another. I don't want the stock market to come down, I don't want inflation, I don't want real estate to come down in price, I don't want people to lose jobs.

But the reality of the situation is other. But as the bulls threaten to throw us into a crashing dollar, to protect there stock market, and the gold bears Prod them to do it. All of this is just going to delay the inevitable, and in fact make the bear market longer and worse.

In life we walk a razors edge, between: Heaven and hell, Materialism and spiritualism, bulls and bears, humanity and savagery, paradise and purgatory, darkness and light, pleasure and pain, compromise and chaos....

Seems like it will soon be time to place my bet.... What if I hedge myself.

Tyler Cowen in the NYT says that a weak dollar is good for you.

Oh... and if the dollar Collapses.... That is good to, because rich foreigners are going to come in and buy everything. including the house you used to own.

So, that your 10K dollars you had 6 years ago is now only 8K.... That is good.... And when you don't get to own anything in your own country, and we effectively declare bankruptcy by having a collapsing dollar.... It's good.

So, if your 10K suddenly is 5K... after 6 years of inflation.


I tell you what!! over the weekend we have had the Dollar get stronger by about .5%....

Makes me think that there is some dollar buying going on out there....

Saturday, December 1, 2007

Kasparov in High Spirits After Release

I'm a huge fan of Gary Kasparov, not only is he what The former soviets need, but he is the kind of politician we all need. I was also charmed when he said "Politics is like Chess",

Realy.... I hadn't noticed.

President Hugo Chávez alleged the U.S. was planning to sabotage a vote Sunday, and decides to help oil go to $100....

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"