Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, August 11, 2011

fade eric bounce

well we got the fade eric bounce today....

I should have thought of that. I still say we get the retest, we can see if there is much more bounce in the market tomorrow.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

so I suck....

I can't get a chart going right now... I'm just totally out of practice.

Tony E-mailed me, asked if monday we had a bottom. I said... "it doesn't feel like "we are going to crash" sentiment, there is still some optimisum. We had a nice run... everyone got very excited... and we rolled back over.

This bounce sort of felt wave 4 to me. feels like a move to 1050 on the spx is in the cards. I nice little bear trap below there would sort of feel "Right" some kind of "look out below!!!

tony asked about my indicator and how I read it... if 10 is euphoria. well we are now at a 2 or a 3. futures are up fairly significantly... I just think that like I say "futures are sentiment" that is not exactly "Negative".

I'm keeping an eye on it... I just think the market will have to test on a quarterly basis that 1050 level. or somewhere in there. It just seems silly not to try.

bla bla bla ... central banks .... Default..... what we need is a nice MEME.

of course "slow growth and a sideways economy" .... well we knew that....

Monday, June 13, 2011


Well... I was looking at sentiment... it doesn't seem like we are there.

Classicly a bounce this week as the options expire. All the Put buying over the past month.. should honestly start losing their value.

but I'm a bit rusty... but sentiment isn't quite there.

so... a bounce at the beginning of the week... well we may need to see all the options expire then after that we can get a good Woosh....

so... I'll try and keep track... I'm rusty... and very busy these days... I guess on my DSI scale... a 1 being panic a 10 being euphoria. we are at a 3.

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

two posts

so.... I'm watching Tuesday's low.

there was a Macke story around about "Fuck the fundies... just buy them because they are going up"....

look it up... I'd link it but WTF do I care :)

oh.... point is I think this sentiment bodes fairly negatively for stocks

Monday, March 28, 2011

.... stuff

We had a nice little sell off on good news. My stuff says that isn't a good thing. If we can keep selling we should get a significant Retest. Of course I doubt a retest of the 2008 low, of course that I say that.... seems like some form of sentiment.

Wow... didn't know I was still alive? I'm just super busy, and try and avoid this nightmare of Market people. I was doing some reading a few months ago about psycopaths, one of the lead researchers suggested that if you couldn't study them in jail, the second best place to research them would be global stock markets.

I'm trying very hard to pull off some trading while ignoring all the egocentric bullshit, the market has to offer. Not spend hours paying attention to the tickers and trying to gage sentiment through broader means. Many people breathing a sigh of relief these days.

Re: market action.... if we can keep moving up... it's all still just denial stage. I've been out in the economy for the past Months. It's not good, some solid jobs are coming back but there are some very strange things going on. Some serious worker exploitation. I guess all of that is obvious with all the Labor issues going on. It honestly feels like some of the last desperate stands by the entitled. (buy entitled, I mean the aristocracy)

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"