Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Friday, July 31, 2009

LOL

Well 2 things.... Doug Kass just Recalled my top...


and My quick Commentary on Peter Schiff and fast money, and how retarded all the Fast money traders were because they Mock him then Basically Pile into his trade and at the same time Mocking him....

but get this... Peter Shiff's Twitter account Links My Commentary or maybe it's not his...

TaDa!!!!!!!!

After 3 months of bearishness......


THE WORST QUANT IN THE WORLD...

Not to be confused with Quant 2.... Or the Psycologist Quant.......

IS BEARISH!!!!!!

Hurray.... We can make a TOP....

Not to say "Don't be defensive..." but seriously I've tracked it for weeks for you all, and You have to admit they are MASSIVLY WRONG... Like 90% of the time...

That they now have confirmation bias in the quant... Like they have had for Months as they have called "overSold"... they have Capitulated!

SO

It's friday, so I don't know if I've said this already....


but of the fast money traders 3 of 4 are cautious.... and they are calling for a "pull back"....

not sure if ..... I'd feel better if they were complacent.. but looking for that "heavy volume" reversal... today's volume wasn't bad.....

What the hell

Well I'm over it.... but .... I'm still not sure what the hell is going on with the Dollar...


seems like a solid point today sentiment wise. and I don't want to stare at another chart.

Good thing

I'm trading with Terranova now.... He is neutral... which is "I'm to dickless to be Bearish"... which did not bode well for Oil.....


I can call my top though....

Now I have no idea what the hell he is talking about Re:NFP....

we may get a rebound before the NFP comes out, some time next week... but some kind of Failed bounce... Maybe.....

Where are we.....

That green line is the "Punters Line" they will if we can get below that talk about a down trend... and the day traders will apply more sell pressure. It has a good Descending look.... Sentiment "Feels like" its on the Wane or is it Wain. But also realize that sentiment is still very positive, they are all talking about pull backs.... There was a guy today... Sort of talking the "Buy the dip" and when asked "what are you buying" he had that look on his face like.... "buying... I'm waiting to sell when the last sucker comes in...."


Breadth.... so... the NYSE was making more new highs on Thursday, but the number on the SPX were not. expanding.

again the Objective Breadth indicator on the NYSE was expanding but the spx and the naz were not... and were still showing divergence....

Well that is how my confirmation bias Reads.....

Bull Bear count

seems like..... using the idiot box.... the ratio right now is 1-10 or 1-20.... bulls favor.....


and as a contrarian....

Now I'm going to wonder WTF is going on with the Peso.... er Dollar.

Another Tell

was the spike in the Vix in the last 30 minutes

Gaming the day traders.

We just had a breakout here.. which stalled and I killed most of this trade... But the Swing trade Which stopps out at that 99.50 level.... and I hate ... Fuck.. have to trade... just a moment... Sorry Isn't that a bitch that I have to trade and blog at the same time....


This is going to make your fucking head spin......

So... Eric you ask... How did you Game that trade. Well I've noticed Highly voitile moves in the last 30 minutes.. Many over the past 2 weeks have been Long....

I assume that the Fucking Day traders Saw this too... but... the day trade game is to sort of game the morning and the Close.... I pointed out this morning that the "Fucking Douchbags" were going to play that Green line.... And they did..... So... you have to imagine that they Played that move, and all the fucking day traders were holding long and wanted to dump them off to the Mutual funds at the end of the day..... We have solid bullish sentiment.... compleat Slope of hope right now.... Matt Nesto is on my TV right now compleatly suprised by the sell off..... that is good Bearish Sentiment.

Some Web cam Joker is saying buy high sell higher right now... that has been the Theme since the "Trade of last resort"....

So... Assuming that "They all were Long" and using my thesis that most the money was "All in" at this point. There for.... No more Bag holders... Just the day traders...

Also remember that the MEME on the day was the weak dollar..... so "where are they" Of course they are in the Dollar trades, so they Pull back the most since that is where most the money is.

Now I'm still curious where the "Weakness" in the dollar is comming from... Cause they were buying Treasuries and buying oil....

Like they say... It's all about what "They are doing"

I may have to

test out the False break out 3:30 sell...

Volume

seems to me like the volume is strongest in the last 30 minutes...


It always seems like it was 10 lifetimes ago... but as I remember that "At some point" Most of the volume was in the last hour, spread out ...

but... it could be that I never noticed before....

so.... I'm pointing it out... but not sure if it is segnificant..

Santelli


Which move this week is more segnificant..........


RICK SAYS THE DOLLAR.......

UUP moved down like 1%
TLT move 5%

sure it's a currency... but look at the move... one is "Relativly sideways" the other is a quarterly buying rocket ship.

Maria Says

"you can't step in front of this train...."


I want to remind that on Wed when we had that pull back, she was still "Cautious"

This has not been a joy

to trade.... seems like a little bit of what "looks" to be Accumulation here.

but it's the 2:00 hour and it's time for the last 2 hours of Truth!

but I don't hear the Bears Growling out there....

UPDATE" I forgot to say that it seems like... well that was a crappy Pennant...

Slope of hope

.... I'm hearing slope of hope at this point.....


Just guys I'm looking at... talking long... look like bagholders....

I guess there could be some toothless guys that they could pull out later, that could be the Greater Fool....

You see michelle

If I buy insurance the "Risk Pool" is a Pool of 1....


So I may as well cut the middle man out and just pay my own bills.

I know you have a marginal education, and you just want to convince everyone that you are a WASP elite Like all the people you Idolize... instead of how they look down on your Race... No matter how you defend Uncle Milty.... they will still look at you like a second class citizen.... Sorry....

But back to the subject.

See if the Insurance "Risk Pool" is a small business, under 50 employees for insurance is 50. the chance of a catastrophic illness is 1.5... so to get to a Whole number you need 100 employees.

and if you have Thousands, then the Risk pool gives you a much better spread of the risk, and the insurance becomes cheaper...

"Well You say" how if the "Risk Pool is U.S. Citizens" Well that is the LAST thing insurance industry would want... because then they can't overcharge the "Small Risk pools" which give them the high profit margins...... YOU SEE!!!

Why is there a Milton friedman Orgy on my TV...

Not like we celebrate Adam smith.... or henry ford........ Shit... I'd take Ayn Rand above Uncle Milty....

Sentiment

I just want to cover some sentiment stuff... I tried to take a few hours and go over "The Bible" yesterday... but it's going to have to wait till tomorrow.


One thing that bothered me in the "June top" was that we should have "Denial Of positives" and we did have that NFP that was not as bad as expected, that we sold on....

Did that count as "Denial of Positives".... HMMMM.....

The second thing that Bothered me was the Reversal... Which didn't "Feel Like" Buy the dip... but Technically it Looked like it..... Since march... I had been expecting a "Significant Test" of the Trend... because there Tends to be one in one of these Uber Strong Trends.. Some kind of "Strong Retest"...... Not to Backtrade my sentiment... but Finally we got a real Retest.

So.... we ask ourselves... as this trend has not responded to .... "Bottom in Housing" or some of the other... Decent News... one could actually call it "good news".... and for the market to respond Negatively..... or Marginally

What I'm getting at is that it could be/ and seems like a much better "Denial of Positives" than the June one.

SO... that is what has me calling Top.... I'll admit that the "buy the dip" sentiment being a little Weird... does suggest a "Chance" that we are still doing the wall of worry. Or Else.... But sentiment can be nebulous...


In other sentiment news..... This move in the dollar sure has Santelli all Wet in his panties!(sorry sensitive readers)

Good news for contrarian bears

3 of 4 fast money Lunchtime traders were Bullish...


Calling 1050 to 1100 targets

so... Volume



Seems like the sell volume is stronger than buy...

But it's close... how is that for a bullshit hedge!!!

Penant

there is sort of a Penant here. The solid upside breakout could bring a retest of top....


WTF do you need me to tell you that...

Shiller!

More of my 2. Minute economics...


My problem with Shiller is when he talks about how "Animal Spirits" are what Cause the Economics. Like many things ... Cause and Effect are .... Nebulus.

So.. Using that Thesis, one would think the Enthusiasm in the market would Lead to .... More Enthusiasm... As opposed to the natural Ebb and Flow of Sentiment.

Price Precedes Sentiment.... One may then conclude that it is the price that drives sentiment. Not sentiment that drives Price.

It's just my simple objection that "Talking about bad things" does not make them happen.. this is superstitious nonsense. It's the "Don't use the R.... Word" economic thesis..... If economics was as easy as not using the "R Word" ....

That "Some People" have this thesis... Just shows that the Pseudo-Science of Economics Is just that.

Though... Things aren't all that black and white... cause there certainly is an element of some ability to "Scare" the markets.... but is it that ... or is the "Scare" just an attempt to find a Fair Value.....

Just some Musings.....

well

UUP dropped through 23.42....


I have mentiond the idea that the dollar and treasuries could move sideways for "Some time".... Yes I know "But Eric... You don't believe in sideways" ....

Wel how about Up and down 5%...

Or I'm fucking Wrong!

Hard part about today

Is that there is money comming into the market for the end of the Month.

volitility

This is a ton of volitility this morning...


I don't know what I'm saying by saying that.... except that there is a ton of volitility.

23.43

is the June low on the uup.

Weak Dollar

I've been suspect of the Weak Dollar MEME that has been going around.


but something that has me this morning is that we have Dollar down Equities down.

I'm not.....

I wold expect that some of the MEME would play out.... even though I don't find the argument....segnificant.

I just would have expected more bounce out of the dollar, as those that have been Short Dollars and Long Equities roll out.....

now...... Maybe it just says that Nobody is trading "Sell the dollar" " Long SPX"...

Punter's Line

For those that haven't tracked me for 2 years..... I hate Horizontal Resistance.... not because it's not valid because I'm a realist and I know that there are a ton of people who trade Horizontal Resistance.


But my reservation is that it shows Lack of Imagination... Horizontal Resistance is for people who think 2 Dimensionally. People who never took Trig. and don't realize that the third dimension is TIME!!! besides the Current price and Historic price... it's also about what price does OVER TIME!!

To use an analogy it's like those people in the 13th Century who thought the world was Flat... Relative to those that realized that some of the anomalies in Navigation could be accounted for by a "Round Earth".

But it doesn't mean the market won't bounce.... Or that I could be Wrong!

Quant 2

the person I designate as quant 2, who still has much Confirmation bias in his quant...


Says positive for the day.

I have "some" respect for that quant.

Schiff on Fastmoney

SO... Peter Schiff was on Fast money last night...


TIMMY was living up to his southpark name, as he argued that the dollar didn't intermediate Top in March with the market And Weaken.... Even though it did. They even showed a chart which said the opposite of what Timmy was saying.... and yet Timmy somehow managed to dissagree and then state Peter's Case... all at the same time in his fucked up illogical Brain.

Then they made fun of him because he said he had had a great year this year. Basically making fun of his Weak Dollar , Out of the US equities Investing Thesis.

Then the Mentally Challenged of Fast money then pulled out the "hyperinflation Emerging Markets MEME" for the rest of the show.

DO THEY NOT REALIZE THAT THEY HAVE THE SAME THESIS AS PETER SCHIFF.... Weak Dollar,Long Emerging Markets!!

I'll have you know

My current most hated trader... which isn't the chart Thief!


"We broke out of the range. If we have a break out and then pull back to the range...."

Get this big Logical jump....

"We will be back in the range"

wow! fucking rocket science....

morning

1.4110 dollar eruo... a little weaker, and yet not the 1.42 we had last week.. but a little weaker... but not helping futures.


good to see my prediction of a GDP number was already cooked in. in fact you could also say that there was some anticipation of a very positive number... or even some hope...

damn

I was just looking at some fucking Punter Trading Psychologist Technician....


I'm resisting Trolling him... but he does Moderate his comments....

BTW he called the reversal at 1.... Just in time for it to bounce.


The bad news is..... 3 of 5 fastmoney traders find it frothy....

but 3 of 5 are just "Cautious"

Thursday, July 30, 2009

MEME

an interesting thing to me... is we need a Bearish MEME.... and I can't see one...


I guess U shaped or L shaped recovery.

SHIT!!!

Terranova called the Reversal.... FUCK!!!!!


Of course Since I've decided to trade with Joe from now on.... He did have his head up his ass at the Turn... But good enough..

but Timmy is Bullish.... But... "They say" you can't short it.....

always good for some kind of Pull back.

colbert on cycling and baseball

The Colbert ReportMon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
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I gave you all the news in cycling the past month.... figured you deserved this.

Hey Chart Thief!!!!

Just so you know when I see it later on your blog... "Shooting star" now we need a confirmation candle. but who will believe you since you have been calling top every day since March.

Correlations

so...as the day went on...


the buying treasuries... Meant selling market... the Dollar moving up meant oil and materials down....

Normal....

Say I was Retarded

and wanted to trade gold.... the short term trend is down, and you could short with say 92.50 as a point to cover, trying to trade to the "Pennant"....


Then when you hit the Pennant you cover, then you wait for buyers... if they don't come in....

short it again!

another capitulation

Joe Weisenthal... has capitulated .......


see how many more we can line up...


TOP!!!!!

Let us just ignore that this is like the 6th top I've called... in the past 4 months.


but a nice shooting star...... and High energy reversal!


I stand corrected

Doug Kass is actually drawing parallels between these levels and the great depression


can't take the bear out of that boy.

Reality divergence

I think some of our divergence Dollar commodities market treasuries.... may be because of the oil contract expiration.


tomolly is the last day of the month.

more seniment


seems like bill Luby has his thumb up his ass...

and it almost seemed like Zero hedge is in an angry Panic today

and look at that .... SHE is Heavy....

wow

see... it seems like sentiment is almost literaly "We are going to the Moon"


This feels so Toppy to me....

but I'm not the Top Wizard!

"they are buying every 2% pull back...... yada yada yada... we will go up the rest of the summer."

this seems to have become the Mean sentiment....

even doug Kass is quiet today.

Hmmm

Every one of these CEO's keeps comming out and they are compleatly full of shit. Just "Lying with statistics" as is the CEO stock N Trade.


aparently there is a roll over in oil contracts.... Makes me wonder if oil should be short at the close or at tomorrow's open.

also.. my reservation about holding a short into this close as Per my thesis on the GDP... makes me wonder if I should Try it....

You know... If I feel like that "Everybody" Feels like it

Also.... seems like everybody is talking Wall of Worry..... in a way unlike we have heard since the last serious correction.

but sometimes it is best to wait to play another day.

Sounds like

the GDP number is going to be solid tomorrow.


My guess would be that if it's even close to what is anticipated, the futures will be up.

but.... we all know what a cruel mistress Mother market can be.

so far

it looks like sell volume is stronger than buy. seems like those stops are tight.

hmmm

ya... no chart... we had a trade channel that just broke but...


always the trap...

but by wave counts that is 4(on a minute chart) so a break of that would be something to watch.

right Game out 1000spx and you are there.

but I'd love to see high volume selling..

bad news is "They" the talking heads keep questioning it... but they could rain dance it forever.

But the super bad news is that Again... The worst Quant in the world.... Bearish again...

Sweet

Terranova is all about the hyperinflation trade......

"On Dollar Weakness"....

he was looking for the High energy reversal....

So... the interesting thing is when traders "Can't see"

when there is something they have been looking for and they have confirmation bias....

Like today with the dollar having a "little weakness" and them turning it into something it isn't

Where last year the dollar euro was 1.60 and now it is at 1.4050... and yes a move to 1.43 would be interesting... but that we have had a move from 1.42 to 1.40 and nobody noticed, and now a move from 1.41 to 1.4050 is "Weakness"....

My point is it is interesting when there is "Decoupling" of market Memes.... and by decoupling I mean Decouple from reality.

it's like the Bond weakness= market down as opposed to normal correlation market up=bond down.
Then today it's Selling bonds to buy stocks..... now bonds are being purchased and there is an uptick in the market....

Decoupling.....

but you never know which way we are decoupled from reality.

OK ms Talking Head

Where is this dollar weakness today...... Oh... that little Retrace.... Is that what your idiot CNBC mouth is talking about...


i give Santelli some credit for actually knowing that this isn't "weakness" in the very near term.
Though.... Hmmmm... sort of looks like there is a chance my little trap has played out....

I'd feel better

If we had a high volume sell off...

Chatty Cathy is on my tv..

er... Kudlow.... could be the same person....


So... I had been meditating on the old sell setup. Seen that Before.....

Did I need to show this.... My thesis would be wrong if we push up at the close.

Bear Bull Count

So.... besides me and Guy..... I can't find a bear right now.


so Pluss or minus I can still see that last spike...

but the lack of sell off got most the bearishness out of the traders...

Which doesn't mean that another move up would give them a final excuse to go "All In"

But sentiment wise.... we "Feel Like" we are there.




Morning

Looks like the futures want to make all the punters from the past 3 days puke up their shorts, and we will see how many there are.

Up 11.... That is just fucking Silly... On no news... No weak dollar... Just more treasury issues.

we will see where they are at the bell.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

subtle warning?

subtle warning? anyone? anyone? beuler? beuler?

[teachermirror.jpg]

trap?

have that sort of descending... sort of head and shoulders but she broke down but may have formed a trap.

You can

make an argument that there are enough punters short the past couple days, and they may need to be shaken out.


I said yesterday that it "Felt" like it was over.... but....

wtfdik

correction?

Shanghai went... or we will see if there is a trend but 5% correction in one trading session is fairly serious. One may suspect that that should or could make us nervous enough to set a new downswing..


1.408 on the dollar euro... also not good for the Hyperinflation trade...

Now... Europe did open down then shoot up..... but now they seem fairly flat...

so .... question is which do we follow Asia or europe....

shanghai

looks like shanghai has started a correction

down 5%

well now

hmmm Seem to start them with "Well Now" alot these days..


Everybody is looking for that one more spike up..

that is all....

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Shatner Reads Palin

Master Thespian William Shatner Reads Beat Poet Sarah Palin


Nice

3 of 4 fastmoney traders are BULLISH


Yeeeehaaa

we can go lower..

the one in 4.... Guy

Robbert Shiller

I was going over some of his stuff today... and it's like "He is right" then suddenly he is "Compleatly off his rocker"

if you have an hour



Colin camerer ... Behavioral Economist.

so

For some reason this "Feels" like maybe it's done...


or that is my "hope"

1.423 dollar euro

overnight there was trade up to 1.427.


2 days in a row they have sold the morning and then a bounce back in the afternoon. Seems like it's time to change that pattern.

Monday, July 27, 2009

Muddled

most indicators I have are muddled...


watch for my series of slightly higher highs.

still that chance of another solid leg.... Get them all bullish. Cause they are trying to sell it, They went in short and got smacked at the close.

the Good news is newsweek says the recession is over... for bears

the bad news is that again the worst Quant in the world ..... Bearish!!! they are seriously 0-10. Another one I track is 0-4.

It's just that they are all "we are overbought" and that is all the T.A. they have

Ron Insana is an idiot

there is a 101 argument about "economics" do you want a weak dollar or a strong one..


Well I Guess RON, Zimbabwe Wins.... You Idiot.

the value of a currency is effectively a referendum on the strength of a country.... If you are an "Average" American... You want a strong dollar, If you look back at history you realize the most Prosperous times in the country were aligned with a Strong Dollar.

and let me not even start with how "Stealth Inflation" is just an attempt to bankrupt pensions.

WTF did he learn economics....

guess there is a chance

she does look like she wants to correct..... Maybe one more little move..


but sentiment "Feels" like she has made her swing. xlf seemed strong today

apparently newsweek has declared the recession over...

More on insurance

some Chamber of Commerce Stooge.... He could be the National President of the chamber of commerce.


Arguing that what we need to do is force everybody to have private Healthcare. Talk about Corporate Welfare.

they should force everyone to go out to dinner once a week, and buy a new car, and a new TV, and Maybe some Jewelry.

So.... besides that The ten year is weak, the dollar is weak.....

Sunday, July 26, 2009

so...

over the weekend I did see some signs of..... the eternal optimism of the human mind!

there is still a ton of doubt... so... It could be worth another leg.

Friday, July 24, 2009

so...

I was reading more stuff... sentiment is very unconvinced about this rally.... It has to go higher.


I have tons of Lemmings who are still bearish.... well over half the traders have literaly called the "Trade of last Resort".....

Sorry... just being straight.

Art cashin is calling top, half the fast money traders are "Cautious" one could even say there are over 50% bears Minimum...

Catching up with the big picture

Yep Barry is still Bearish...


we can go 1000 easy!

realize that is only 30spx pts away....

Hardball is on right now

30 min in it's all birthers and Race Relations.


I bet Chris Mathews has great Health care.... Second only to Congress. When you have companies like GE and News Corp and Time Warner controling the Dialoge....

Health care has no chance... Timer Warner I bet has Great Insurance Coverage.

If I were in congress, it would be a loser move to get involved in it. just come up with some lame excuse like "Maybe later, but the defficit is too big" and walk away.

Politics

there will be no health plan... no cap and trade...


business as usual, Congress' health care is fine..... they don't give a shit about any of the "Voiceless" One of my congressmen is a Blue dog, and he is completely ducking the issue. he even scheduled his own Press conference at the same time as the President, and scheduled it 6 hours before...

you think he and his fucking sell out Blue dogs have any fucking desire to provide more spending.... after the bank debacle....

Obama Blew his Wad. With market recovery nobody gives a shit.

most the country will slide more deeply into poverty, and the republicans can still get Traction with the Birth Certificate nonsense.

this is all just status quo and even if the federal government has to Print even more money to help the private sector refinance their debt with the TALF.... they will do it.

Companies can cut costs in half and keep revenue coming.

I'm just saying there is no reason we can't hit 1200..

but we can keep playing... one resistance to another.....

I'm just being realistic here.. there is almost no sign of weakness...

and no reason to play agressivly short till we see "Something" again.

SO.....

the dollar and treasuries can stay range bound here, and the market can go up...


low borrowing costs maintained, no Hyperinflation or wage price spiral... Just borrow cheep lend long Margins suffer because corporates can't borrow cheep, but they can borrow...

so sure stocks stay range bound 12K to 10K.... and Recovery comes in 2012

lots of good sceptisisum

half the fast money guys are "Cautious".... you don't make tops like that...


plenty of nervous guys out there about the rally....

no reason it can't hit 1000 and we can do trade of last resort there... Like I posted

then 1050 1100 bla bla bla

that the "buy the dip" sentiment wasn't there at 870 doesn't' mean that wasn't aversion...

we will see.... but ..... can't rule anything out.. trade like a commando.


more help for the bulls

look Vince Farrel is Cautious......


New high and no euphoria to speak of...

Maybe the weekend headlines will pull in the last buyers.

If

So if the dollar can break down... and build a bit of a Bear Trap.... It's been skrewing with these levels for days/months... so If it can trade the False Breakout.....


then we have a chance for a possible market top....

but not yet.... could take days or weeks...

Yep....

they defended the breakout... Everybody is still Sceptical....


They can keep moving higher... Slight Wunderbar is all the correction we have had in 2 weeks, This could end in 1 or 2 more weeks....

"Hoping" for a sell off. So far Little Weakness.... I see one Slight MACD divergence in the 30 min...

Other than that, I can make a case that this "Correction" was one of the smallest the entire trend.

this can Easily hit 1000 then it's 1050 then 1100... We can just keep raindancing till then.

Brand new High, and Maria is sitting on my TV doubting it.

re break out

so I guess we can "Hope" for a series of slightly higher highs... or a developing 3 push.


Still a chance for some kind of failure... But where is it going to go in 5 minutes?

TLT going nuts

that is the only good "Tell" you have for an impending sell off.


If it happens.

there is the position

we need 3 million shares per 5 min bar to get to even with the lowest daily volume bar

1.2 and almost 2 million this period

that is just enough for the shorts to lose money

1.4million

in the first 2 5 min periods we traded 1.4 million shares, we needed 4 million to average enough shares to hit the lowest volume day yet.


maybe we will get them in the last half hour... but so far... Too many people, and no chairs yet...

Less than

20 million shares the the last hour on the spy would be the lowest volume yet.


but average "of late" is 30 or 40

moment of truth

see if we have that "Failed High", and if "They" have any more money to spend now that they deployed it on the Trade of last resort.

grrr


There is the retest of bottom, now it's time to see the test of the last high
There is something out of the dollar... but slim pickens so far.... but we also (FUCKING MICHELLE CRAZY BITCH BACHMAN IS ON MY TV.... THANK YOU CNBC FOR PROVIDING THIS CRAZY BITCH A VOICE)
so, there was a huge move down in the vix...
and a move up in the TLT....
We will see if this means "something is up"

Nice

Some great Republican attempt to convince us that the cause of the problem is CRA....

and not that the far right has no clue about economics... since they rely on Kudlow to Lie about statistics and try and "talk up" the market...

Kudlow is SO FULL OF SHIT!!!

I havn't watched this Bullshit for Weeks..... This fucking guy throws out stats constantly... and Yes, he is right, but then when you are smart enough to Nail him down you realize he is Lying... Or Using ignorance as an Excuese to lie.


He throws out q1 to q2 revenue is growing..... even though the expectations for growth is a miss.

THE GROWTH IN REVENUE IS SEASONAL. Q1 is the Slowest Quarter and they grow till Q4 Seasonaly when we have XMAS.... Then all the credit cards are full and people have to pay it all off in Q1...... BLA BLA BLA...

there was another one this morning.... but it is just a constant... cause he and his Religious Ilk think you can "Talk Up the Market" and all it does is sucker in the "Bag Holders".

and I have a Huge Rant about the FUCKING SHELL GAME That is the Pretend "MARKET" for these Bullshit things we call Stocks...... and the Inflation that we cause to Drive this bullshit up... to the "Steal from Peter to Pay Paul" to the Rest of the Economy....

but it's all good as long as you are on the winning side.

CNBC asks

Is the Rally Sustainable......??


I wouldn't think we would need to ask if it was a top...

1.4180 dollar/euro or euro/dollar

23.50

could be some bearish hope if uup can get over 23.50

well there is something for the bears

Target

Well maybe we can still fail... but I have a 1000 spx target setup.

if you want to hope

a bearish move would be a failed retest of the high here. or over the next 2-3 sessions a series of slightly higher highs.

1.4215 dollar euro

nothing remarkable.

here is a flag to watch for

bob Pisani is trying to convince me that the Breadth is good


So.... Fairly weak volume... which says... "They" didn't come in and buy it this morning. I still don't see agressive selling......

Much Dollar talk....

So... here it is... and I figured if this was going to do something it would look something like what I drew.

one thing I have learned is that if the trade doesn't do what you want... and it Muddles... GET OUT..

Maybe it is double bottoming or something ... but why not play it over 24 after it builds a base... cause it's either building a base or it's going lower...


inflation trade

the xle and the xlb have buyers so far... maybe some in the small caps...


see how it holds through 10:30....

cause I can't stop rain dancing!

slim pickens

there was sort of a wedge there, that resolved...... But... I can draw about a thousand patterns... and that is just one.

Targets

So... here are your targets... Right... you can just play from one to the next, go long... Hedge... long hedge,from one to the next ...


No problem there right.

Sentiment

one of my Misses, is that there at 870 it didn't have a "buy the dip" feel.


but here we are, and tops are made where nobody expects it... and there are plennty of talking heads right now talking pull back....

makes me think buy the open....

I won't do it .... but...

maybe we can push to 1000 ish and that can be our unanticipated top or in the 980 or 990

of course.... I'm very iritable about this break out.... and as sentiment... it throws out the idea of a top....

Well.... I'll watch cycling this morning but

there is nothing more natural than a retest of 96 then the next leg UP... let me remind, there are no more expensive points in the market than those around a "Breakout point" or resistance/support.


But.. maybe this is just a nice left shoulder.

I'm going to get to tony today!

Buffett.. talking down the dollar we had 1.4250 back down to 1.4220


I was wrong no venatoux today at TDF... today is the semi... last day for the sprinters... last chance for farrar besides the big final day.

big day on Le Tour

Mont Ventoux.


Last big climb

Last night the Euro/dollar went 1.4140... but this morning back to 1.4230

I guess assuming the dollar doesn't go to where it was last year....the market can't keep going up.

Unless it does...

and we can ignore what looks like an ascending out of the dollar euro target 1.47..

that should only throw the market to ..... 1200 or so

and a nice move out of gold above 1000

Well Time for the Omlett and Coffee

Lets "Hope" for the Trade of Last Resort!

Ignore the fact we havn't had even a Wunderbar as a correction for 2 weeks

Thursday, July 23, 2009

so....

Ugh..... Ya.. too lazy to show a chart... besides my sentiment and the last resort trade.... I have nothing.


and a constant rain dance for a top doesn't help you. At one point I have no credibility.(when was that May?)

the dollar has been range bound for 2 months, and may be getting stronger.

there was some interesting sentiment I was reading where they were saying the dollar was getting killed, santelli repeats the same MEME ...From what I've seen it's roughly Stagnant, has had a small downtrend in the past 2 weeks, but still trading "Inside a range"... my point is the dollar is unremarkable.

if you ask me why... I'd guess there are more buyers than sellers, they are just buying it, that and covering.

There is what looks like a new swing or soon to be a new swing in the dollar. a... getting stronger swing. as I type its 1.415 to the euro.

It wouldn't surprise me to retest the breakout point, and for us to still move up. This was a very strong Breakout.

Lots of Zero Hedge talk...... maybe the top indicator is him to capitulate...

you want capitualtion

I'm shutting off all the terminals, and going to watch the tour de france....


not even going to read the news.

Yep.....

I don't even want to hear about it..... Sounds like I need to be taking my investment advice from Joe Terranova.


Break out the Rain dance Equipment!

Good point of capitulation today... Just like yesterday and the day before and the day before and the ...........

no leadership

semi's are down, xlf is down, dollar up, oil down


doesn't mean it can't develope..... I just don't see anything leading

xlb

well

Futures are up 3.. well now it's 2.


Doesn't bode well for my "top" or a solid pull back, but... we will see.

I would rather see a Down 3 then a gap fade, maybe into a +2 after the open then a sell off.

One may ask... "Is everyone Pre-positioned for a break out?"

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

teranova and the paper trade

He was talking a buying the afterhours of the qualcom trade...


it's down 5% after hours... I think he picked it up down 3% or something...

You can hear in his voice both the Hubris and that he isn't worried about it... Why.. cause it's a patper trade... just saying he picked it up because he thinks there is a pop and the market is going to the moon.

Bob Pisani

Just announce that the risk was to the upside.... not to the downside...

"It's official" bob said it.

or is he just trying to convince himself?.... that is some complacency.

my prediction

is a morning gap into a down trend day.

Talk talk talk Pivot

bouncing off the pivot... Day traders don't believe we could sell off.... so the technicals and an "unanticipated top" would seem to coincide.

Grasso says "You can't be short in this market"

to talk more sentiment, Maria and bob were a little nervous about the sell off..... which isn't all that .... It's counter sentiment to my bear thesis. They should be complacent....

but... life isn't perfect....

Gordan Kotick

So at the Head and shoulders break down, he was uber bearish.

so here he is saying the ruble and the spx are linked..

and it was hard to disceminate..... He is bullish now...

him and every one else.....

bear flag


with exit.

oh

and the xlf is working on breaking it's bear flag.

TaDA!

now it rallies 200 pts into the close with my hubris...... LOL


Feels heavy, felt heavy for the last hour.

bears need

some kind of break down.. See it close at 95.50....

trap?

I'm just posting this, not because I see a trap there, but because so far... we arn't sure that there isn't a Bear trap under that white trend line and it needs to show us something.

CNBC is Gushing

about Tech, and aparently there is a Fast money special about Emerging Asia. Or emerging markets... and proably asia specificly.

1 down 2 to go

or is that 2 down 2 to go?

First NOT on CNBC

TONY.... AKA Kalamazoo Post, who Called the bottom at 666 (I kid and yet not).....


Just freaked out a little on the Possible break out???

The question is... Did he actually call the Top tick Too????


How fucking stupid

Charlie "Gasbag" Gasparino and Maria (TaTas) Caruso Cabrera, Were just badmouthing Zero Hedge Calling IT (I'd say him but I'm Dubious).


Calling IT Zero intelligence.... With Maria backing him up. calling all Blogger stupid

Talk about a bunch of Cats fighting in a burlap bag.

Hey Maria... I know you are such a Narcissist you are looking at this! You are the dumbest person on CNBC, and that is saying something. They put you on to be Controversial. Your are a Fucking Troll for CNBC. Just like Zero Hedg is a fucking Troll. It's funny when a bunch of moron Trolls fight about who is Craziest.

Gasparino
Zero Hedge
or Cabrera.

I wouldn't say they were all Stupid.

But I would say they are all FUCKING CRAZY AS SHIT!!!

And that CNBC is arguing with some Crazy Troll Blogger is as ridiculous as when Congress was taking CNBC serious as a News source And not just Economic Noise.

back to support

I freaked tony out by talking about the Trade of last resort....


we are back to the trend line.... Still Who the hell knows. but for shorts to pay the stocks have to go down.

make or break for the Breakout!

NO!

The Shittiest Quant in the world is now Bearish....


but after the Bullish yesterday... I gues I can say "Neutral"....

Cause they are just Fucking Punting at this point!

Breakdown watch

so you have both those trends to get trapped under!


then the third...

watch out for that

or it's failure.

Tony says

sorry, So much going on today, I'm to lazy to link him Ritholz is bullish, I was looking for some specifics but....


that and the eclipse

enought mojo to call some kind of downtrend.

I posted this earlier



but on the wrong blog, so I get credit... Got the eclypse... all kinds of mojo.... of course now it will reverse and put in one more high.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Just to sum up the day

I said 2 corrections then top, last week.


Today counted as the second.

Seemed like Short term "buy the dip" on this trend..

Still wondering about the trade of last resort. But I'd say she feels tired. Today sucked some guys in for the violent reversal, and they won't be trying that again....

and... some more good news the worst quant in the world, the one Bearish short term last week, and bullish long term.... Well.... Bullish!! now!!!

So... maybe topped, maybe tomorrow... But I'll be the fool Leaning into it heavily in the morning.

They sure are trying

Wonder if some of it is Trapped Bears from midday, puking on eachother!

14:30

There was a lot of 14:30 volume, and now at 15:00 it's fairly light, I wonder if they will be puking it up at 15:30

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