Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

A quick Chart

we were looking at this today. I told tony, that this needed to start breaking down today if it's going to. I also wanted to point out the upside target.


I want to point out that my treasuries had a nice run today, The treasuries I no longer own... those ones.

I do want to say that, the list of Bearish blogs is impressive, It is the dopiest that are still bullish. As a contrary indicator, it's something. And Warrants caution.


Here is your chart

It's doesn't look as simple as one may think.... if you see the pattern...


Other than that, you are screwed.

Work Work Work Work... on my end...

good luck.

OH!!! and Fuck you Financial Sector and Eastern Coast U.S. NIMBY.... I want to see oil slicks all over your beaches. If we are going to drill for that bullshit....You get it too. Why the fuck do you think you should be so special..... I know... because you are the ego centric center of the universe.
DIE! all your Fish... and Beaches... and Sludge... and Birds..... DIE DIE DIE!!!! Your Snookies and your Jersey Shore Waists of Flesh!!!!!

Maybe you will clue in to an appreciation for real nature.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

We had a wind

There was a wind that blew in today, kept me off the bike.


I think I may not be feeling well. I felt it coming on this weekend, maybe it's taking it's time.

Well... I'm sure you are interested in that.

Oh... Tony has the market going higher... I guess... I'm actually not sure.

Ok... tony says I should correct this... I think I was correct when I say... I'm not sure.

Correction from tony:
I'll quote my "TALK" comment:

"I'd say the cataclysm occurred already---- in 2008;
so the next phase is a prolonged trend up (now)... followed by a prolonged trend down (starting between now and summer)

Looking for crash is fighting the last war."

So I think the trend is lower, but gradual. But who really knows. If the NFP is > 200K, then we could easily reach 1200.
So... he says we are going up (now) and there will be a Down Trend (now and summer).

So... the trend is down... I guess. or up or sideways...

He has spent way too much time in the market, and now has an effective market triple talk.

I'm telling you There is a wind... or a full moon.... Something... Tony says it's the thing from the Dark of the fire from Lost....

I think I'll reiterate... I'm not sure, where tony thinks we are going.


I've gone through my indicators, I had a nice sentiment read.. Every blog says Lower..

Of course there was a lemming count a few days ago, and it went 16-3

Using my indicator... I'm not sure I can come up with a 5... maybe a 6 optimistically.

The lemming indicator was very positive.... that is hard to Fade.

I just think you have to punt... play it by ear...

I've also... again, have a ton of work to do.... it has me distracted... I may have to just focus on it for a few days......

Well

By blog traffic.


there is confusion out there.

I joked with tony, that if you add sovereign debt death spiral and Bond Crisis

to the wall of worry... if we are even on the wall of worry any more....

we have a clear shot at 1700 spx.

Truth is... I don't have time, except to trade from day to day.... and work...

it's honestly like I have 3 jobs... and I work too hard at 2 of them.

I'm just saying you are on your own.

Here it is again

It was good stuff this morning... unless you can't read this.

I had that nasty feeling, that we would Bounce back and forth after the sell off.

I want to say it's acting like a consolidation... and many times that resolves up. (Or down).... I'm just playing... it's sort of a consolidation in an uptrend. could easily resolve up.
Action wise.... they want to grind it... But I will point out. if this is a failed swing... Failed moves Fast moves.

Deal with uncertainty... Accept it.

Last time it was "Sell Earnings"... it might make sense to have Peaked and Grind Into Earnings, or Sell slightly... Nervously into it.

I'm trying to get shit done... and Everyone who reads this will think it's about them...
But

I'm in this "Emotional Vampire thing"... if it hasn't been clear, that I've been irritable about blog readers. So, Just about everybody, at this point... seems to want some mothering of some sort....
and that is sort of a "Pay Per Click" sort of thing... it just goes to the highest bidder.

and everybody reading this, might think this is about them.
I'm a Very Big Boy.
My time is my own, and the time I invest in this blog... or other things...
Is mine... and mine to spend as I choose. So, it's my fault if it's become a little too much for me right now.

I need to Refill my Soda Can.

As this Charming Young Woman said to me, at one point... "You have to fill your Soda Can and keep people from taking it from you and just drinking it all..... and I don't even like Soda(she was funny like this.)

Either that or my blood sugar is low..... LOL (Cause I'm funny like that.)

Sentiment wise.... I just have these huge lists of bears at this point... This has me Very Creped out... and is a good reason to be cautious....
Which is tough and time I'm not sure I have.

Volcano

I did something I never do, Puked some things into the Volcano... Some Virgins so to speak. The Plan was to pick up those treasuries and see how "Window Dressing went"


But I was up a few bucks in them, and decided I'd toss them.

Throw them into the Volcano.... or give them up to the "Crazy Gods of the Full Moon" that seem to be going around.

I hate that kind of market bullshit.... But it felt like the thing to do. When I'm getting the Creeps... It just seemed like the thing to do.

I'm sure Treasuries will run now.... LOL

I also didn't like that they were grinding lower, on improved sentiment. at least the TLT was. It doesn't look like the worst pattern, for a pending reversal... But it was one too many thing to watch and thing about.

I'm still busy and it added one more thing to the list.

here is your update

of course every time it comes down and traps a bunch of people.


And then.... "We see"

Big news

The Cern Large Hadron Collider, Looks like it is "Fully Operational" and ready to link into Sky net and blow up the world at any moment.(joke)


The webcast... is probably what I'll watch and not CNBC.... Strange how that works out.

Futures are up 1, they were up 3 earlier...

but this just crossed my desk from Jan 09


It was a full moon, seems like ... the Crazyness might be ..... associated.

Also Barry was asking "What are the signs of a top!" the results were interesting, by a rough count 16-3 Bulls to bears.

Monday, March 29, 2010

All I know how to do ... is stick to my knitting.

Last we checked in.

Well, it's hanging there, Not sure what I can say. It can still move up... or see how it resolves

Saturday, March 27, 2010

So What - Jonh Coltrane and Miles Davis


Again, this is off "Kind of blue"

Other versions of the album, are on the slightly older posts.

5am... Exhausted

I pointed this out this week.

It's Doug Kass' 20 things that could make a market top.

This is First order Thought:
None of these 20 things has happened. So... We are waiting for some of this to happen, to mark a top.

This is second Order Thought:
Doug is kind of a joker. Don't take it literally. Funny joke Doug

Third order:
If you notice none of those things have happened, Therefor Doug is bullish. Which is 20. Doug is bullish, this marks a top.
Fith Order:(ya, we are skipping... you just tend to skip)

If Doug is bullish, he posted that to indicate it, in his Snarky way. But this makes him Bearish, So he isn't Really Bullish. Yet again He is calling Top. He could be Right, he could be wrong. But honestly, it's a Crap shoot. At this point it's over-thinking it. But Certainly Even Doug, isn't denying the Strength of what is going on in sentiment. If you are looking for him to get Bullish.... That isn't it.
Some other notes.

The quantifiable sentiment notes have come out, news letter writers... etc... and they are very bullish, This should keep any "Smart Money" sidelined. We still have end of the month allocations. It will be interesting to see this money come in, But I don't know if you have noticed, but much of that money goes into bond funds.

Friday, March 26, 2010

How about some Friday Action

From Kind of Blue.
Legacy Version... I'd push the 50th collectors... but that is for nerds

Blue In Green

Sorry, you probably have to turn off the other music. But Listen to that Horn Wail!!!! Like something Beautiful Searching the Darkness.....

Here is the MP3 of Blue in greeen

Another week in the books

I don't know about you... but I want to puke once the week is over.


It will take 8-12 hours of Meditation, or Relaxation, or dark room time with some of my Jazz, or time on my bike working out... to get me back to "Human"

I know, I could pull the knots out of my body by drinking.... but I know better, it won't help....

So... I don't want to talk about sentiment... but is sure is hard with all the "Blue sky" talk on the TV about how Great everything is, to even contemplate being short... and yet... we keep selling.

and they keep trying to buy.

So... as hostile to you.... Dear Blog reader.... as I've been... I hope you have a good weekend, and I hope you have some pleasant times, and personally you have nothing but Blue skies all weekend.

Umn..... Have a great weekend, and do your best to decompress... more fun next week.

I Do, wish you well and have a Great weekend.




just some fast chart talk... don't be surprised if this is the first downswing... and now we "Retest" an upswing.

I'm tired... Long... Unfun week

lots of stress, some great trading... Cleared most of my day trades...


I'm a bit heavy to the short side... but there was much money to be made.... I'm happy to go flat on the rest of my positions... if we get there.

I'd like to see this thing just Slowly Leg down... Drip Drip Drip.....

I'd suggest they are anticipating "manic Monday"... it would be interesting to see it go bad on them...
Umn..... But I think that can be traded on monday.

I told tony mid day... that I was Bullish.... LOL.... but still holding my positions.

Then we legged down ;)

Europe

What I don't like right now...


is that I can't get a feel for Europe. It seems like they are at an extreme, so... In the ebb and flow of things... it's due for a retrace...

and that should affect?... Effect?(I'm not sure I have the time to parse this) the dollar.... and what else.

I have no doubt the European Crisis is not over.... But since we are a nation of Isolationists with High School Educations in PE and .... Ignorance..

it's hard to know how long we will ignore it.

Well

At the close.... There felt like there was a ton of "Dumb Shit" going on.


It Creeped me out I felt like Too many people were... Filled with Too much "I know what is going on" I know that sounds Messed up....

It it's most basic form, I'd like to see more confusion. Too many people think they know "Why the market is selling"

I think there "Could Be" a bit of a bounce this morning.

I'm going to play it by ear. But in the selling this morning, I figured I'd stop myself out of a bit more, and reload later....

Which means... my favorite thing..... I'm going to sit here and Sweat the market all day...

You know... My favorite thing. Don't count on updates.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Owie!!!!

I had to pull some off at the close... to keep the bills paid.... And because I work my ass off, and have to make money as I make it.

But for the most part... This looks Grim. Like a fool... I didn't take many of my day trades off.... They were Too "In the Money"

I'm curious what MEME's we are running
  • I heard something about bill gross and healthcare and deficits
  • Things seemed to revolve around treasuries.
  • Something about the ECB and Trichet and Greece
  • Trish was on MSNBC talking about Dollar Armageddon, because of... You guessed it Bearish Treasuries... I picked them up because I figured... it's low Beta, and it feels like the "Be Massively short Treasuries" MEME. She has been smoking the Shit Coming out of Kudlow's ass for too long.... But yes, higher rates are bad.... Now I would think we could price that in... or would have by now.... but you know that crazy market.
I was joking with tony about knowing anything about Economics. It seems like as much a hindrance, in the market, as it is in any shell game..... LOL.... and you don't exactly argue Fundamentals from the guys running the 3 card Monty.

You want a good indicator of a top

I'm sitting here ready to Hedge my short positions...

My broker about shit

When I called up and asked about Actually buying treasuries.... I told him it was a trade... but I just hate all this derivative nonsense.


Yall don't know me, but as a Technology pro... I know all about appropriate use of technology... and there is nothing a client likes better than to hear that I'm not in the business of Technology for technology's sake.

So.... Why not make a call and buy treasuries... Like Actual Treasuries... and not beg to be Middled by the TLT. and all the bullshit ETF's

Treasuries


I hate that I'm sitting her... You know I could .... have not had the distraction of the market... and be done for the day...


This looks Scary!... I think it's due for a bounce.... LOL

I have no idea what is going on in treasuries... maybe it's the great Greek Crisis sucking up demand or China... trying to give some spook to us.... or some shit....

Maybe it will get a good bounce, but I'm happy to not be there. that is one of the most violent moves it's seen in 6 months.

If you are looking for it... It would be smart to look/keep an eye out. reversal of some kind.

I refuse to listen to rick.... Seriously!!! this is your life.... and it's ending on Minute at a time.


One of the great Ironies in the market is Zero Hedge... It's like what some moron, Financial guy would draw from that Book..... Who was Gay for Brad Pit!

Jesus!!

THIS continues to make me cautious.... ON BOTH SIDES of the trade...

What the hell is going on with bonds!

Having fun!!!!

Seems to me like Doug Kass has shut up. I'd still love for him to panic....


I have no idea what is on CNBC.... Like I keep saying... I have work... I can't just sit around and watch the ticks. "Maybe" we can see if a "Failure" Develops from here...
DEVELOPS!

I can see Cause to play with some daily positions.... Short!

I'm not sure I have the time to do any Day trading today...

Seriously... Work Work work.....

but I also don't have time to blog it if it goes sideways.

When Last We Checked in with our Super Hero's...

I was talking to tony last night, and he didn't take me literally when I said "I don't know what you are going to do"... and I sort of tried to explain some trades,yesterday and they all worked out.


After the bell, Tony suggested that he be shorter at the close... I said "There is no reason", based on risk management.

Either we Gap down, and gap fade. or we start flat..... Or what has happened we start Plus 5.... and it looks like there isn't a downtrend yet.

So risk management suggests that there wasn't a reason to be extremely short.... Like I say a downtrend is a Series of Downbars, there isn't a reason to go after it, until after the hump. Then you can day trade it, and turn it into a trade on the Daily. IN YOUR DAILY POSITION SIZE.

OK... SO... YOU ASK... ERIC... WHY DO YOU GET SO HOSTILE.
this is the thing, instead of dealing with what I need to deal with, this morning, i'm trying to explain it to you... which you won't/don't understand... and I am spending 15 minutes doing this instead.

the jist is... who knows what will happen at the bell... and I don't know what to tell you, besides play the reversal off the "Breakout" if we get one...

or... the game is your's. SO.... I'm saying you are on your own... I'm more apt to try and work today.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

In love with the black keys today


Need a new love - I'm ready
Want my time - I'm willin' yeah
Cus I'm the one who's gonna show when there's nobody
I'll be your man - Yeah I'll be your man
Times gets tough, oh they get tougher
Hold on to me - I got you darling
Cus I'm the one who's gonna show when there's nobody
I'll be your man x2
River is deep - Yeah I'm swimming
Mountain is high - I'm gonna climb, climb, climb
Yeah I'm the one who's gonna show when there's nobody
I'll be your man x4
Alright!




I do 2-3 weeks of workouts, then I get a week off.... "Sort of" But... all that energy, has to go somewhere.... So, Work.... etc.... being excited about The black Keys.


Sentiment wise... what you want is for them to be saying "if only it gets back there" I'll sell.

and they slide down the slope of hope.

We never know!!

But honestly ... What I'm saying is "The Black Keys" are BADASS... and they are even great Live. Blues R&B by white guys.... it's rare.... but say you go, you wont' feel out of place.... You racists assholes!!!

seems

like it will muddle sort of maybe... the rest of the day....


we will see.... But I don't know what your punting ass will do.

Good luck with it.

seems like I throw the good trades when Ya'll arn't watching by traffic..... "Isnt' that the way"

of course... no worries, you will be chasing it tomorrow.... Right into some kind of rebound/bounce...

just like you always do.


Number one concern

this is my concern.... this is the puzzle piece that may not fit. or that.... doesn't fit yet.


Seems like something is going on .... but i'm not watching the Idiot Channel to find out.

but it's something to keep ones eye on.

if you can't read this setup

you shouldn't be trading it.

we had ..

failure of the retest... then a new low.


This got all the knobs in....."Lower Low" they scream...
now we see if it's a Bull Flag.

Yawn!!!!

here is

I mentioned the "Typical Pull back".... Ok!!!


I made my money, and I left "A Little" on. Some trades really are working short this market, I'm not sure where the strength was, I suspect it was in Materials.
That could continue, and breadth could improve
BECAUSE I AM GOING TO TRADE TODAY.... I'm looking for an inside day... a "Failed Retest of top on the 5 minute/65 minute(that sounds strange)... sort of an upbar on the 65 minute which does not reach a new high... then another new low on the 65 minute...... and then be careful about what will look like a Bear flag.... because
Caution...

I will "Look For" my double top... because it's possible.... and that is what I'll try and trade around today....

BUT YOU ARE .... DON'T DRY HUMP THIS TRADE... YOU AREN'T QUALIFIED... CHASE IT TOMORROW... when it may be easy...

Healthcare....

This time, Jim Cramer gets healthcare wrong

The "Mad Money" host said that if healthcare passed, stocks would tumble. Instead, the market hit a 17-month high


Like I've said, I can't stand CNBC.... I've had a few weeks of it.... and it's either get in a bell tower, or Get back to work...

The massive number of "Financial Pro's" who thought they had the genie in the bottle, betting on healthcare driving the market down. Was significant.....

It seems to me that these "Pro's" *wink wink.... Nudge Nudge* need to puke it up...

I don't know if that has happened or is going to happen.....

It just seems like they... Jumped on that MEME/Myth... and needed to take it in the ass.

I'm not catching CNBC... sentiment seems "Fairly Positive".... But I didn't see old Doug Kass puke, so it isn't perfect..... *who Knows*

this isn't an easy spot in the market, and we may need to see some action still...

REMEMBER... you can always catch the sell on the "Other side" A series of downbars... means.. a series of downbars.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

So I'm sitting here

looks like doug hasn't given up... but he got quite after the rally started...


Doesn't seem like he capitulated....

SO.... Flip a Coin on that one.

I'll look at the rest of "Things" tonight. and update before the bell.

Okidokie

I'm just letting you know, First ... I hate you...

This isn't true, but... I didn't feel obligated to you to blog through this all day....
I don't have time for it, and when I see it as heads or tails.... and chaise it on the failure.... Sure I sat in my chair all day, waiting for the failure that never happened..

and I swear to god... GDP drops when I sit here and watch the market..

There is a pile of projects sitting here... and watching the squiggles doesn't help

AND LIKE A DUMB ASS, I was reading the same thing last night. It should have been obvious to me, that the market was going to shove a red hot poker up Doug Kass' ass today.







Now here is the deal, the market normaly pulls back from the Retest of top. so a little retrace back to that green arrow, is perfectly normal in and advancing market.
Before I say the rest of this... I want to say a few things.
  • The market could run through Quarter End
  • The Market could run through the beginning of earnings.
I'm not going to give away, somebody's model... Because I THINK THE WORLD OF THAT PERSON. so I have to be careful. There are 2 parts of the model I use. We talked about it before, but there were 2 parts... it seeemed like we had the first one... and we needed the other one.... but because it is so... Nebulous an indicator, it's hard to hit it. But.... The last DOUBLE TOP... we had split like this.
Breadth is much worse this time than last High, and this is how the double top lays itself out.... you have an attempt at one, and everyone calls it.... THEN IT FAILES... the market pushes through. Then the market pulls back, gets them bearish again..... THEN DOUBLE TOPS!!

MY POINT IS!!!! THEY ARE TOO SCARED TO CALL IT!!! AFTER THE DESASTER LAST TIME. SO WE COULD GET ONE. that is the market i know.

and for "The Crew..... Doug Kass et all" to have set up for the downtrend... now to have the poker shoved up their ass, and for the bulls to be setup for the "BreakOUT" .... ITS THE PERFECT SETUP TO FUCK EVERYONE!!

MY POINT IS DON'T BE SURPRISED. Watch for the pull back to that green arrow... Then an upbar failure....

trade defensibly.... But don't let it catch you by surprise. if it happens!!

this will get the previous bears bullish... and the rest capitulating.....

We will see...

yep

this is the stuff I just don't have time for....


or to blog about it.

sorry... do something... or the other... I could charge you for that advice.

Well

you have a place to hit Eject as a bear...



Over it!!

I'm sort of over it today...


enough with Healthcare yesterday, Enough with "The Market"..

there is a pile of projects on my desk.

I'm finally feeling recovered, and it's time to ... trudge on

There was conversation about the "Trading" Matching the "Narative"

Here is a great example:

Health care bill passes, but market shrugs it off

Health care bill passes, but market shrugs it of
This poor lost market soul, thought that the Passage of the bill should have "Done something", there was a Narrative in their head, that "Should have happened".... since it didn't "Market Shrugs it off".

One could have said:
"Market reacts positively to health Care Bill"...
" Market Enthusiastic about Health care bill. "
one could say
"Market continues to love all things OBAMA"

There are a thousand narratives you could have to explain the price action.... What you choose to believe... is more your own psychology than anything else.

Now ME!!! I think there is Price Action, and then they try and Explain it.
Since most of the market is Right wing narcissist, you get... a right wing Narcissist Narrative.

and they are all wrong.... there is just the price action...

Monday, March 22, 2010

continues

I honestly, am very sick of blogging this... It's like I'm Don Quixote...


I feel like I've been fenced into a corner on this, and just have to keep going....

I honestly would like to work... and watch cartoons...

of course I don't have time for cartoons....

but it does make a nice dayDream...

Drink a soda and some chocolate milk... watch some cartoons...

The Siren song


It still seems very much like the sirens still have them...


I could be wrong....

and seriously... I WILL NOT WATCH CNBC... I've had too much of it.

seriously... it's like a barrel full of Stupidity from the late 1940's....

Recovery

I'm very much trying to recover from the last few weeks.


My desire to "Watch Fastmoney" or whatever... well... I just don't care.'

Doug Kass is out... Calling for the "Super Spike"
(ok, I'm not sure how long the bounce is supposed to be, fortunately for him he is being vague...)

seems like if we don't have a top... we will defiantly get one.

I'm not sure how sentiment from the rest of the market is, but it still seemed very positive on friday... and though the fools came in and tried to sell it down 7.. or bought it down 7

one of the two....

I still say I'm not optimistic... It just seems like we have had our moment.... and like everything... we want to to go on forever.

but me...

I'm Very Busy... and trying to stay on top of everything.... and stick a trade or two....

The Breakout

This is a 15 day chart I think of the SPY... This is the breakout trade...

The market breaks out of the range.... Goes running past.
THEN IT RETESTS....
THE DECENT TRADER KNOWS THIS. Knows that that Red LINE must be retested. AND REGARDLESS OF THE SUCCESS OF THE TEST... IT WILL BOUNCE.

Now that it has bounced..... NOW THE MARKET MUST PAY!!!
It's SHIT OR GET OFF THE POT!!! ON THE BULL

I've made my bet, and I may be wrong.... BUT I MADE MONEY... AND THAT IS ALL THAT MATTERS. I may puke... or I may win on the next one.....

WE SHALL SEE!!!

THIS IS ALL i KNOW...

Just for Clarity, I'm short right now.... Ready for the downtrend... Though I'm talking about the Breakout trade, I'm talking about how to trade it with limited risk..

now my new trade is higher risk..... I just thought there may be some confusion here.

maybe we still run tomorrow... I'm not sure... but I'm happy to be wrong. But I wanted to explain hot the retest of the breakout worked.

working on the close

It's impossible to know.. I'm not watching the idiot box.


They could run them up through quarter end, but... They all could have run them up already, and there is no reason to run them up anymore... they have had their fun... the cigars are being smoked... They may just wait till the Quarter end... and let things be what they are.

I'm sort of over obsessing about it, for the time being, I did it for 2 weeks, and what has Paid has paid, and what won't wont.

I still think this is probably a deadcat bounce, and the party is over..

but it won't be the last time I'm wrong...

We shall See.... It's a FUN GAME!!!

lets see how hot the potato is...

Most these lines are useless btw

Residue from a former .... Mojo...


umn.... The best thing, so far, is that this whole thing has Doug Kass... Flustered.

SO.... Tiger woods...

IF YOU LOVE YOUR WIFE..... YOU DON'T GO OUT AND FUCK EVERYTHING WITH A HOLE IN IT.

It's not as complicated as you think. I guess nobody is perfect... but then there is fucking everything in your vision.

good lord...

I had to puke a little into the futures.

Seems like ... they ... aren't convinced yet... Subtle Maybe overt warning...


"just in case"... I need to pay some bills.

The real question...

Can I go back to bed?

On the other hand

It sounds like there was a huge drama going on, over the bill, I tried to watch the news coverage, but my brain still needed a Reset from the past week.


So I had to turn it all off, Let it go... and rebuild the old Grey matter.

I'm so veracious about such things, But it was just the absolute worse time. Not only sunday, Not only with the market action.

But like I've said....

There are no shortage of other things going on in my life... I'm just trying to keep everything to a Controlled Chaos.


Morning Joe

BTW Morning Joe is twice the show Squawk Box is. If I do watch in the morning, I know exactly the Bullshit Squawk is full of....


"DEMOCRATS ARE DESTROYING THE MARKET...BLA BLA BLA DRIVING THE MARKET DOWN.... MARKET HATES HEALTHCARE"

of course the last 13 months of bounce, they get no credit for....

It's a lode of crap... and if you believe the market moves for these reasons... this is why you are losing money.

Joe Scarborough is full of Crocodile Tears this morning. It's the full Sour Grapes Routine. I sometimes like to remark on people's maturity... he is acting like he is 18 years old. 50 year old man, they put him on TV to act like a child.....
Great example for the rest of the country.

I said it last night, i think it all much ado about nothing, Like watching a poker game where 2 people have gone "All In" on a pair of 7's and a Pair of 6's.... It scares you.

This is why there are problems.
I like to see them fight on the floor of congress, like they are 12 year olds. It's good to let america see, what kind of people they elected. One of these days we will smarten up and realize what idiots we elect.

I will say the response on the great.... 100 IQ meter.... Twitter. They were very positive. I was curious of the Tea-Baggers would be louder than people responding positively...

of course it's still "much Ado"

I did like to see Joe Scarbourough, Have a Hissy fit about it.. If he had acted like a mature adult, I would have worried more.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

More Notes

... I have no idea where you ..... Sit .... Dear Blog...


My second Training Block of the year, just ended. Each Block ends with me pushing my body as hard as I can, and it wipes me out for much longer than I would prefer.

I'm just recovering...

It sounds like the Siren call is still fairly loud.

One may hope for another bounce to get short.

A more normal thing is for the market to drop another leg... Make you chase it, then it will bounce on you, and make you Sweat.

But if you are lucky, we will get some kind of Flag to sell.

Doug Kass is hoping for that, he is hard to fade.. but not impossible.

I haven't checked futures.... Healthcare debate...

I honestly think it's "Much Ado About nothing"

Both sides have blown it up into something it's not....

It's very dramatic... and more about them, and not about you.

If you want a real take away from the politics... of it... I think that is it...

Somehow Politics has become so self-involved... it's more about them, than about the people.

This doesn't validate, whatever the current opinion poll is.

What I'm saying is They need to Wake up! realize they are trying to help the people, and improve our lives.

There are so many things that they could do, that are Free! that would improve our lives.

but those things... Tend to hurt their Fundraising...

This is what you get, who knows what I'll do between now and the morning bell.

but I doubt I'll change my opinion. It's hard to know what to do after that big down day.

ok... market talk

that is the breakout point.... and they have to buy it.


I guess there could be a trap there/here

the good sentiment indicators are that those that are calling for a pullback are calling for a shallow one, and I'm also hearing that "There is so much support in the market, it's hard to think it's going to sell off"
Doug Kass has shut up for an entire week.. and is calling for a "manic Monday"...

Saturday, March 20, 2010

Hannity is under attack

... I'm surprised there actually seem to be some "Real Patriots" on the right. Who have decided to stand up to what is just an attempt for Hannity to increase his Brand, and Create a "PR" stunt for himself.

In what seems to be just a Marketing campaign and not a charity.

I'm not going to sit on a Saturday, and go through the balance sheets. And the math from the original source is just ... bad... I can't figure out if the charity is giving 5% or 40% of the money collected to the intended Veterans and their families. Maybe Year to year, its just a huge spread. But giving someone $200 to help pay some bills.... Seems.... Like pocket change. It would be better to see the money go to the VA.... don't you think?

Maybe he could buy one red rose for every Fatality, and have it delivered at the funeral.

I am not looking forward to the finally of my second training block

... This weekend I need to finish my second training block of the year, It hasn't been an easy one, and not because of training, but because of..... You know... Life!!!


I needed to carb load a bit last night, and was too tired. I tried... I had some toast, and went to bed, I'll check the weather later, and have some pancakes.

I wake up, shaking... like a cold chill, sort of a cold sweat at 3am... Ok it was 4am this morning. I fall asleep at 7pm btw... I'm just saying, I'm an exciting person.

But it's best for me to do a big ride on saturday, and clear my head.

Ugh high of 47 today... 57 tomorrow....

I've done some great things to turn myself into a superhero. after a couple months, it's been good. more work to do... and my Cardio Vascular system hurts... That is always fun..

Ok... Back to bed... contemplate what a bad boy I have been.

Friday, March 19, 2010

reading back

I was reading back....


I tell you, there are some very poor jokes that i miscommunicate... some things that are quotes that ....

I'm surprised any of you renew your subscriptions.....

So far... I've hit a good one.... Market closed on it's ass... like I suggested..

1-2 weeks of options go out at a loss.

I'm tired..... been a long week... I'm tired.

Summary

It's morning, I just need to clarify.


I believe the downswing on the daily chart, has started. Remember, there is always another day to sell it in the downswing.
5
"Are we going to crash" "Are the highs in for the year?"

These are things I don't know.....

What I "Think" and don't know, is that the downswing has started.

But we have yet to see a completed upswing on the 65 minute bars.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

post market

Fun day.


It's funny, I've been in business a long time. My first one was when I was 16, once I could drive. Before that I had had a regular job since I was 12. When I was 16 I used to pretend I was a boyscout and go around painting numbers on peoples curbs. $50 for an afternoon of work. but better on the weekends.

Worked for immigrants from then through the age of 24, when I started doing computer work. I've worked as a contractor, or and a Temp-Full time hire ever since.

I've been in business a long time. Your relationships with clients is symbiotic, you help them, they pay you. They like what you do, they are happy to pay. Other than that... Give it up. I had a client screw me out of 6 hours of work, a few weeks ago. I was over it, I was just out the time. But if they don't want to pay, I don't want to work for them.

I had a client that used to wait to the end of the invoice 30 days to pay. I went to contract negotiations with them. I said, So, you don't really appreciate what I do, enough to just pay me when you write checks, the first chance you get?

They said, well we keep the interest on the money, if we wait.... I said, Oh... Great! No problem, my bill is due Net 10 Days, and if you go 30 days, you owe me another $100.

Somehow it seems like the finance industry doesn't get that. I find it funny.

Relationships should all by symbiotic.. if they aren't ... why bother?

We are all dying, one day at a time... There is only time for symbiosis.

So, they run around trying to screw the Credit card holders... and sure it works for a while... but can you sleep like that... When you are out and about driving the boat.... is it easy?
See, what I like is to walk into the clients office and having them know, I'm going to make things work and when they have a problem there is nobody they would rather see.

So... it bothered me all week the idea that 12 months worth of calls,were going to go out "In the Money"

I just doubted the hell out of it. I think by the friday close, almost every call purchased in the past 7 days will be worthless.

That will be my bullshit self published book... "all business relationships should be symbiotic"

Apparently there is a rumor

that the fomc... is going to raise rates... seems like the market is being crazy


but ... it could be a "Tell" that they are responding to this rumor. or that they are blaming it for the sell off.

But... it makes me worry..

But melissa Lee says "No worries, even when they did we ended higher"

Time to clean up ... The party is over

It's time to start shorting stregnth.... Trish and Kudlow have doen the fucking... and it's all about the Kuddling.... followed by the... anger and the bitterness....


Then they breakup ... and we start the cycle all over again.

MEME Tracker

We have been tracking this Trade War MEME


YOU CAN'T let the currency float!!!!!! that would skrew our exports!!!

Yuan rise would be disastrous: China export body

"If the yuan rises, these companies will face the immediate risk of going bust as their profit margin is already very narrow," Zhang told a news conference. "So for these companies, the consequences would be disastrous."


I don't know anything about economics... but that is the point.... Your currency is undervalued, and it gives you an advantage... and yet... it still leaks out in other ways...


Nike Blows it out

Shares of Nike Rise, on cost cutting.






The cost of child labor has fallen, considerable in china.

Of course the question had to be asked.... "How did the Tiger Drama, affect Sales"...Surprise... Not much.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

No charts

If I go through sectors right now... I know what they will say... New highs.


I'm so Buried right now, I've covered it for the past weeks. I keep taking work, and honestly... Let me just tell you all about work... ZERO RISK and you can make Money... Lots of it, if you are good at what you do. You don't even have to worry. You can sleep.... Exercise... NO Stress. You just sit and do your job, and take the money. It's a sweet deal.

Let me just talk about another idea, YOU CAN TAKE MONEY!!! and start a Business. not fuck around worried about anything but helping clients or providing a product. If you have too much product, you can fire all the people making stuff, and wait for it to sell, and hire temps to build stuff.

but I digress.

We were Head Scratching on a Top... they were excited FINALLY... But the word is "Euphoric".

I do have to say, I was very wrong about the "Fast times at Ridgemont High" Market.... But... honestly Fuck you, it was fun to write... and you can take my money... but you can't take my Joy...

You bunch of Joyless Humps out there, and your day to day.... Grinding Punting Stupidity...

So let me tell you this about the market, I think if we gap down.. I think you can still buy it.

We are still in momentum, and need to bleed it off... Once we do.... Stock by stock.. sector by sector.

So as I pondered the Excited market, and looked at the indicators.. It seems like we have to still Bleed off Momentum.

I like what I see out of the dollar and treasuries, for a turn. but again... It may take a few days... and we can think about it then. Like I said, if there are down bars....and a series of them, we can chase them then. But after we see the Momentum go on the Wain.

So

I had to sit around through never ending dribble from the Lunch time crowd.


Finally they were Excited..... It's always hard to parse the difference between Excited and Euphoric. There can be a slight pull back, between the two... that could be what we have... Or My read isn't clean and it was Euphoria... It's hard to get it, or the index top to the Moment.

Down Bars would mean a series of them... so.... We have time to get aggressive.

WE WANT TO SEE THE UPSWING!

and I still think friday is a good pick for an index top based on my usual model.... but we will see the indicators tonight.

But looked like Bonds moved back to normal correlations with stocks today...
But Time.... You always have more time....

Or honestly it's always hard to get it exactly...

sentiment update




I'm working, this morning.... I can't say they are "dancing" this morning. It's hard to say, as busy as I am..


but Tony Pulled out the Full Nazdaq book.... The whole PTSD Time warner AOL merger.... it was the whole bit. I continue to worry that my inability to hear the Siren song.... I just don't get it...

but it is your game....

we will see if the positive sentiment just gets the market to muddle or if we can get some kind of short term correction out of this. I'm still talking a most probable Swing high on Friday or monday...

There are quite a few ticks from now until then.

I've said there is a ton of "never correct" again Sentiment, and, the last short term correction was $1.30 on the spy, rule of thumb is that large or more, for the next one...

When they get euphoric... we should see the big upside targets.

I'm keeping an eye on treasuries and the dollar, trying to keep an eye on how the correlations are working, or breaking down... it feels kind of "Confused"....

Good tops are made on Denial of the real correlation... IE... Dollar getting stronger, and Materials getting stronger at the same time.




Good morning

I'm going to try not to complain, I had a very nice workout yesterday, my whole body is fatigued... Like I keep saying, Either I have to be healthy, or this shit has to give way.


I've been looking at charts. I have some EWT counts, that get us to "Some Kind of top"... but we don't have many of the divergences that I would like to see. I need to keep looking at charts and think about them. We have EWT count, and that resolving wedge.

What I'm saying is, we want to keep an eye on it, and see if it runs out of MoMo, over the next few days.

They seem fairly excited... FINALLY... I'm not sure they are "Dancing".. that may be for Thursday.

but Yipeeeeee.. More CNBC for me.

I hear they are credible

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

this one is classic

I'm a huge fan of the Nigerian 419 scams.


I got this email today.... Who is he kidding:

The scam victim
This is to let you know that all of you who have lost money to Scammer in Africa and Usa I let you know that there is a quick opportunity for you all mostly lottery. My name is FBI Brad Martins I assure you that I will do all I can to get it back to you in 3 days, This is A opportunity to get your money back I believe what scam means. I work for the global scam Fisher in CA 93535.we have all global scam computer to trace all Scammers name and location. Pls hurry reply back to us because we just caught a scammer now and we found the sum of 5 million dollars with him. This mean your money will be refund back to you.... my private email is scamusa@hotmail.co.uk

Ugh..... 3.0 ?????

Hi.... I don't really hate you.... it's my Personality. There are about 200 things I'd rather be doing right now, than typing away....


Because for some reason.... I want you to know what I'm thinking.... For some reason... I think you give a shit.

I should know better....

I swear I gave up blogging all the time. And yet... here I am.... Talking to the Wind...

I know there are about 6 people who read this... so I'm going to keep going on... And there is no Benefit to me... and I even lose time...


Here is a chart... I'm just moving the lines around.... I said this to a friend today... This is like the Video Game part of the market, Really I'm just fucking around. Nothing Aggressive, nothing Big, Just a little trade, and if it works out... There is a hundred bucks in it for me. If not....
I'm just Playing.... Aggressive... is for later. It's for after we Grind out a top.
It's for After we have a 130 Minute Downbar, and then we have a nice Retest of the Top.. and we Swing DOWN...

So here I am... All Pissy and angry... and that is a first good sentiment Read.

The fast money Knobs ... have stopped calling Top.

I have Upsideblablabla.... he is calling for a Superspike, based on a Fucked up Left Kidney... that talks to him or something... It's probably his liver, from all the Coke and Speed, and diet cokes and Pie... But... the fucking liver says Super spike.

I have this other Punk... who said "I think we will never have a downbar again"

Tony, who is always trying to help me with sentiment, started talking Nazdaq 2000. This is always a good one....

I also now reflect on how Dumb it was to try and sell it.... again... every Knob in the market was looking for that "Reason to sell"... and that is always a mistake... the market starts selling because of a lack of buyers... not because there is a "Reason to sell"

Right.... So we need a Mix... Technicals and Sentiment. Sure I have the 3 push.... but Some of the other Market TeaLeafes, are saying " Give it a few Bars"

I'd say, we have a down 130 minute Bar Coming... I think the most probable thing is grinding it out over the next 4 days. I know I keep saying Next 4 days.... and that is because Once you have a Top.... it tends to take a few days....and we made a new high... so we give it some bars and see.

BUT.... with all the sentiment read... I think we are close.... Of course once we have that DownBar...we can see how much Top Calling we get.

and I honestly think... this is like the godfather... ONCE I THINK I AM OUT... THEY PULL ME BACK IN!

we can see how excited Trish and Kudlow are tomorrow... and Gauge it then.

But like I say.... it may only be good for a decent 130 or more Down-bar... And then it bounces...

And then we see.... and Maybe that bounce will make the high, and give us some of the Healthy divergences we need on some of the other indicators.

Don't get me wrong, some of the stuff I've written in the past few days "Fast times at Ridgemont High" market... Those were fun....

but I put in a good workout today, and it was a long day.... and Blogging on top of it...

and again, to then have to trade.... and work.... it's .... Let me just say...

There is no joy in it.

There was a moment today

Just a note here on .... the state of the world.


There was a moment when one of the talking heads was interviewing Representative or Senator Bob Corker. Whoever it was, said "When are you going to get serious on........."

and it just struck me.

"When is Congress going to get Serious on..... Anything."
"when is the President going to get Serious on .... "

It all just feels like a Giant Puppet show.... Somehow, they think it's all a Reality TV show, and they are waiting for the guy from survivor to come in and kick them off the Island, or whatever...

SO..... That being said...

how about some Celtic Joy for Pre St. Patricks day.

Into the Twilight

Out-worn heart, in a time out-worn,
Come clear of the nets of wrong and right;
Laugh, heart, again in the grey twilight;
Sigh, heart, again in the dew of the morn.
Your mother Eire is always young,
Dew ever shining and twilight grey;
Though hope fall from you and love decay,
Burning in fires of a slanderous tongue.
Come, heart, where hill is heaped upon hill:
For there the mystical brotherhood
Of sun and moon and hollow and wood
And river and stream work out their will;
And God stands winding His lonely horn,
And time and the world are ever in flight;
And love is less kind than the grey twilight,
And hope is less dear than the dew of the morn.

William Butler Yeats 1902


As a note on the market.... Maybe the market still needs it's "Lady Chatterly Moment"

I cant take it....

The idea that I'm going to sit in my fucking chair, and watch that stupid fucking CNBC again ....


I honestly ..... I took on all this work... and I have to get it cranked out... I can't Wile away my days like this....

No Joy there....

I guess there is MORE FUN FUCKING CNBC watching for me tomorrow...


But.... Friday seems like the best window now.

Left Shoulder, and Head

On a bull trap... I'm setting some stops, and going to hit Eject....

I think

that this is the end of the swing since monday. I also marked a possible 3 push.


but the FOMC will happen.... and "Something" will happen. I don't know " significant" or "not."

but for sure... and to your shagrin.... it will be "Something" cause something always happens at the FOMC... I have no idea why...

FOMC

There is a tendency for a morning move out of the FOMC day. Which then Peters out into the announcement. Basically nobody wants to make any moves, and it's a drift.


Now, We are making new highs. and My best model, says that if we don't make The swing High on Friday or Monday Before options Expiration, it won't come until Friday or Monday of.


Oh! this is also the day that we get to look at the Meme "Fade the first Move, Immediate move after the announcement.... I have yet to figure out if that is the 5 min bar 30 Min Bar or 65 Min Bar. or if it is just a bullshit game I like to watch.


Michael Farr- spring

This crossed my desk. Michael Farr sees spring fever too, and used it as a market analogy.

Last week as the thermometer read 60 degrees, I saw a shirtless college student wearing flip-flops and throwing a Frisbee. He was understandably desperate for spring. We completely understand the desperation for economic recovery and a rebound in jobs, but think it premature to be doffing our shirts until the thermometer moves higher


I can't believe I'm sitting here.

Sentiment is very high this morning....

They are Prepared for the trade of last resort.... we will see if they get it, or if it slips through their fingers.

Market Dowsing Rod

I'm sitting here, trying to reflect on Sentiment.


I think I can Reiterate, what I've said. It seems like "We had our Moment". There is a tendency after "The Moment" to Grind a bit... maybe even do a Wave 5 after. Sort of like sex... It's all over, but a brief bit of ...... If I said, "Awkward Cuddling!"... Would it damn me to hell?

I would try and be more romantic, and there is "Good Cuddling" "Honest Cuddling", but .... this would be beside the point. There is the sex, and the after sex.....

and all that is going on is the heart is slowing down... etc, Etc..... etc... Momentum may grind forward... But we all know it's over.

The real issue, is that every knob, in the market... from Terranova, to Pete Nigarian, to Trader Feed, Is trying to "hit this one"..... Because they live in an isolated intellectual Vacuum, They don't quite get that .... Trying to be the Hero.... Aint helping.... "They are the Market"... and the Market can't be Correct.

so ..... We Grind.

P.S.....

But like I've suggested over the past few weeks..... To Maintain the .... Same Analogy.... My "Market Dowsing Rod"...... Has been...... WELL... don't get me Wrong..... It's working.... It just wants to lay in the Warm Rays of the Springtime Sun.....

If that makes any fucking sense.... and you don't see it as a Huge Inappropriate over-share.

Spring Fever is Upon us.


Does this look like

Something that would appeal to the "Me" Generation.


New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"