Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

So

I'm not convinced.... in the sell off

I want to see a lower high, we didn't even get through the trade channel properly...

and the volume doesn't exactly exclude it...

we are again.. not at "Buy the dip" sentiment....

all we are is at "Somebody else should buy the dip" sentiment.

HEHEHEH Al Franken is now a Senator!
http://www.babble.com/CS/blogs/strollerderby/2008/12/23-End/al_franken_bunny_web.jpg

David Schuster is very optimistic....... on MSNBC

Sentiment wise.... they are very complacent....

12 millin

spy shares traded after the close

no fun

In market land......

lol

there was some buying...

well that makes it hard


LOL

slim buying at 15:15


we are at 15:20 and there was a hit but.... Too many people not enough chairs

Mutual funds

My impression is that they come in on the 5 minute marks to buy or sell. maybe every 10 and 15 minute marks.

also.... there is something wierd about 15:35 I think some of them are done by then.

and nobody but traders buy the last 5 minutes of the hour

Birtha of CNBC just Called this


target is 81 ish!

I mean... if Birtha says it....

(UPDATE: Tony points out that one would like to see that neckline broken and for us to stay below it..

can't you just see the traders out there...

waiting to sell into the "end of quarter markup" not only with stock to sell but ready to sell stock they don't have...

see how miserable trying to top tick is

even if you get it... there is still a retrace that comes back within a few cents...

some fucking guy

Every day is a once in a hundred year day..... Today is unlike yesterday.... and predicting 2 years from now is impossible, 2 years from now is a once in 100 year flood...

they happen every year.... because life is not Linear... it's chaotic... if life weren't chaotic... it would be a once in 100 year flood!

chuckle

hot trade here

SO now


Jesus somebody is out banging the old microsoft product upgrade cycle again...

After not buying Vista... people have to buy Windows 7....

forget that they can't buy Ipods or Gas... Windows 7 will be the shit!!!! Right???

So..... here they go, trying to hand stocks off to the mutual funds at the close

not agressive

might the market be hanging on "Hoping" for end of day buying.... or maybe the shorts are being cautious because of the possibility of End of day buying...

well seems like wave B

I'm doing EWT for Tony cause he.... is looking at it now.... but sort of a flag there, and we are still hanging onto the trade channel.

the worst thing

is teranova just said sell it....

SO.... charts lined up against it.

so little buying.

something more normal

hmmm has to be good for 92 at least....

so you are a trader......

why is it that you are going to step into the market?

quarterly markup?

Summer Rally?

or have you already put your money to work?

is that all the bounce?


we are going to get?

ok


Momentum low and secondary ... you can even see a TINY 3 push

Birtha is throwing the technicals

bla bla bla...

pull back... now we have the negative sentiment....

it's all a good thing......


I'm trying to figure out if we have a solid failure or not..... but birtha by her sentiment says top....

LOL

There is some moron on my TV trying to explain how his fund pulled off 25% in the half year...

of course... the market since bottom is up 40%.

and demanding that "It's a stock pickers market" and investors will want active management.. after they see the underperformed of 15%...

then his thesis is that what little money they have they will want to sink into the market.

Cause right? the market is going up another 40%.... in the next half year..... and we will be back to flat by next year at this time right?

getting tough to blog this

there are a few more resistance levels.... but sort of the bounce was also a bounce back in the dollar.

we are down 60... and down 7 on the spx

cnbc doesn't even notice..

The actual, private object of the most skilled investment to-day is “to beat the gun”, as the Americans so well express it, to outwit the crowd, and to pass the bad, or depreciating, half-crown to the other fellow.

Both SAR sell signals are about 92.20

there is a nice move going on in the dollar

comming to the trade channel

oooooohhh

Still thinking this could be the Wunderbar...

see

I just think they are going to sit around hoping to find that "Greater fool"...

and I think he isn't comming...

but I am going to be very carefull.... and I'm going to take profits fast

Jerked around

there is a place for my stop....

well... wunderbar

see if we can get my wunerbar setup today.....

good old weak dollar 1.411 to the euro.

Out performers yesterday were

energy
banks
consumer disc

Monday, June 29, 2009

Jackson Faked his death!

It's in the Weekly World news.. Must be true

“The superstar trip has trapped Michael in Neverland. Also there’s a very good chance he could end up in prison if he’s convicted of child sex abuse.

“The only way out of this mess he’s in is to fake his death, cut his hair and go underground,” says Dr. Reiss, who specializes in celebrity predictions.michael_jackson_faked_death_full

If he Didn't ..... He should have!

fucking thin trading

that is a 2 pt move in the spx in 5 min

this is just a joke....

now we need to work through that trend....

I'll hold on to some and see if I'm right....
we could open down in the morning solidly....
but this is just silly....

now I have a 3 pt move in the spx in 10 minutes

I want to see this get agressive!

shit

Well we are going to see, but this thin trading just scared me out of half my trade...

and it was going so well...

So....

as I watch this... with my hands on my nuts...

I was out doing a sunday bike ride... and some Jesus freak coming out of church almost hit me....

I decided it's not because god hates me....

it's because people are so excited to leave church on sundays....

It's like Cattle Leaving the barn.....
http://showcase.netins.net/web/creative/lincoln/sites/church2.jpg

My ride... was well I did this nice punnishing ride up a hill, about 4 miles up this long hill... there is nothing like being at the base of a hill looking up for 3 or 4 miles saying.... "I have to go up that"

I was

Just looking at volume and realized how stupid that was...

ok... I think we are going to get a correction...

after the morning we just can't bounce...

we had a spike low in the vix...

bla bla bla... my wedge....

some thoughts

so.... the last trader... who was buying for the "End of quarter markup" picked them up this morning.....

Waiting for them to "Window dress" them.

or not...

again it's weird...

market bouncing... but dollar down,

Treasuries now trading against the market... but 60 minutes ago, the market was selling and treasuries were selling...

all morning

I've just been wondering ... everybody expecting the market to rise on a vacation week...

etc etc....

Does it feel like complacency....

I just remember the holiday weeks where I expected that to happen and it didn't....

and we just slid down in complacency...

of course it doesn't help that I'm watching Tennis right now..

GO Mauresmo!!!

but Safina is getting fitter it is hard to figure out if I should go for the older person or the person who has been fighting to get fitter and fitter....

ta da



and yet... not through the ..... Lots of resistance and possible reversals

hmmmm

correlations

seems like... maybe things are trading together....

except bonds...

hmmm

a vix above 25.67

might indicate a short term top..

or impending short term top....

so disorderly

xlf looks strong

but then the smh looks weak

vix looks like it wants to bounce...

the TLT looks like it may be strong.

then in 10 minutes materials will look weak...

BLECH!!!!

I've been talking about how disorderly this is

the truth is that the Chaos is the market trying to find some kind of equilibrium...

some kind of Leadership.... or trying to find some leadership....

wedge

I think one could play that red as a wedge... one would want to be cautious...

and see some confirmation out of the iyr the xlf and the TLT and the Dollar/Pesso(not the dollar:peso)...

other than I hear the peso is doing well

First on CNBC

When not at office working...

Steve Jobs at home working!!!

First on CNBC

Steve JOBS..... IS WORKING FROM HOME!!!!!!


Once again!!!!!

STEVE JOBS..... WORKS FROM HOME!!!

stay tuned...

there is a chance .... STEVE JOBS.... GOES TO THE TOILET!!!!!

the real Civilian update

One of my friends just emailed me.....

he is thinking about Goldman on a pullback

and dividend plays...

weee

no chart but Weeee

a little weakness in the dollar.

Oil materials industrials...

it's the hyperinflation trade...

Santelli has some serious confirmation bias

So he says the dollar is weak... and that is why they are buying oil...

and yet, it's not as weak as it was on friday.

Treasuries are strong.

and we have.. Normal Bond/stock correlation this morning.

volume is stronger than friday.

but it is of Slight notice that oil can go up on the slightest of sentiment... but since i don't track it..

maybe it's weaker than friday.... which would mean.... it's in a downtrend since thursday..

but they seem to be buying oil and coal at this point

Morning

Melanie Oudin of Georgia was just beaten ... sad to see.... Come back some other time kiddo.

retail is trading up so far... and real estate.

futures have been solid up 2 or 3 most the morning fading slightly in the last hour.

Today's chart

Somebody pointed to this as a wedge, of course that person barely understands, any of the chart formations. So.... Saying that is slim pickens... and then you have to point to some targets...
And the way it's drawn... it was a much tighter one on Thursday at noon.... but if you draw like that.... does it make any sense?

Again, I'm not drawing any conclusions... and it is a holiday week, but this is very disorderly..

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Reflections...

So... Tons of questions....

We are going up right? Ok.....

What do I play?

what sectors have are out performing since "Bottom"?

ok... here it is..... Our leadership

Emerging Markets
Transports
Retail
gold mining...

Let me point out gold only outperformed 1 day

and not Consumer Discr.

Not Energy

banks and tech are... maybe slightly outperforming...

Utilities seem ok...

and healthcare... those seem to be solidly outperforming...

I'm not impressed by the charts of most of these.... The "outperformers" caught a big bounce on thursday.. but are fairly poor performance wise....
So... I drew it out for you .... Nice little Elliot wave...

I just want to say.... If we go to 950... this is over.... no more retests... bla bla bla buy every 10 or 20% pullback

Either that or there is a little dying quail here... a little Head fake.. very little

Look at it... we consolidated, have built a base and we go to like 1200....

that is a clear base.

Now let us look at some sentiment....

are we hearing "buy the dip".... or the usual "somebody else should buy the dip"

So I guess Load up on FedEx... and Pacific gas and electric.... Maybe Target...

oh and I guess EEM... arn't those all materials for the most part.... why arn't they performing?

Huh????

So this is what I'm hearing "On the Vine".... Buy weakness/ Sell Stregnth

If you are having a hard time getting what I'm saying.....

None of this makes any sense, to me.

So... Good luck...

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Like every weekend

The little rat in my brain is going...

I'm curious about .... I'm working on finding some papers on normal asset correlations.

But also about how they change through the business cycle.

That is one thing that is troubling me.... They have been so messed up for so long... I'm having a hard time remembering how things should be.



I'm trying to think through possible trading models.....

.....

Something is wrong... IMO.... I'm not saying that in the "Something is not right" kind of way...

but more that there are some pieces that just aren't fitting

U.S. Teen makes it to the second week

Melanie Oudin beats Jelena Jankovic

17 years old... it's like her 3rd big Tournie..... Let us imagine that we may have a U.S. Contender....

Roddick made the second week...

Friday, June 26, 2009

let me add

Sliding down the slope of hope on this fucker short isn't the best idea....

I just want to throw that out there....

Unfortunatly I'm going to have to trade this fucker out....

I made a big $90 today...

I could have worked somewhere and made more money, worked less hours, and had less stress.

Iran and Michael....



I guess we can mix 2 things....

H/T The Awl

Other random thoughts...

We have had a High... every thursday for the last 2. a new high Blows this as a thesis...

One of the interesting things is the Hyperinflation MEME that picked up and feels like a spike today... with buffet and greenspan running the duel hyperinflation meme....

feels like a reason for the dollar bullshit today...

The volume today is unremarkable...

let us also ... the TLT is trading both with and against the indexes...

it just doesn't seem to know if it wants to make up it's mind....

so things to watch .... The pivot on the spy...

a nice rebound of the Dollar....

or like a down 100 close....

I don't know why I just pulled that chart

So far... we have a little pause....

I was looking at the mechanicals... and these are the levels to watch...

mechanicly this fucker is a buy....

you get one sell at 90.80 and the other at 90.20.

this sort of thing would indicate some kind of "Churn".... the 92 level gives Yet another buy... but with as many buys as there are... wtf does one more mean....

so even with a correction on monday and tuesday..... it could still hold an uptrend....

but a nice down bar today... could suggest "Range bound Action"

still looking at the numbers

so far this is playing "pause"...

I also was looking at some of the mechanicals....

and there was a buy setup trigged yesterday for the index

Tennis

I just had to tolerate 10 minutes of Michael Jackson talk.

How does Michael Jackson affect Tennis....

and the closing line was..

"In a day like this, it puts Tennis in perspective"...

HUH!!!!

Puts T.V. And Talking Heads in perspective........ I'm not sure about tennis.... or pop...

gap fade then back to the futures

so...we did the gap fade... then moved back to the futures positions... down 5

seems like it's about what happens next

volume watch

so.... Not weak, not like yesterday...

the volume though was on the down tick...

Neutral Neutral neutral.... never chase a trade....

so far

the volume is more normal... and unlike yesterday...

fuck

and to sit here and manage hedges...... for 2 more weeks....

Have to be neutral

Ya...

the charts in Europe show range bound.....

I should have been more cautious when "Everybody" Was talking 850....

which doesn't rule it out....

I was starting to think 870... just cause..... the market just isn't going to that level "Everybody is talking about"....

Fucking Friday!

I'm curious how we trade today...

if we trade the pause.........

that is a good sign for the bulls...

Buffet and Greenspan

both warning about hyperinflation!

damn that is hard to fade....

I fucking take a few days to watch tennis and....

suddenly.... I have no idea, what they are all talking about

Trouble in Paradise

We are all Costanza's now....

the dollar looks shitty this morning...

For a guy ..... I went out and rode my bike for a zillion hours last night.... Came back and it was like the world was upside down... Mostly because I wanted to know about Iran, and I had to listen to Thriller on a fucking Loop for 2 hours instead.

Well this morning.... I don't know what to do!!!

more time in the 880-950 range and I will want to Join Michael Jackson....

What I have to do... and don't want to .... is day trade....

that is obviously the solution.....

and If I have to day trade for another month.....

*grumble grumble*

I'm going to lay in bed and try not to think about it.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

all Michael... all the time

this will go on for a few days....

and Farah today..... just so you remember...

I suspect some ..... tomfoolery...

some

I feel like I'm on vacation... or that I should be....

this is what I have....

this feels Bear Flag....

It's impressive.... but flat..... I know.... it is up 200+pts off the low...

I have targets that have been hit and were the high... and I have them in the 93 range...

which also gives us a nice trade of last resort...

and yet....

It just doesn't anything....

also I talked over last weekend about the "Wed" low... which advanced to a Tuesday low...

but now that we have a Tuesday low... Did the High advance to thursday instead of Friday...

I'm not saying anything

but it's interesting that after the "things you can drop on your head" trade... blew up on them...

I'm sure they swear it's coming back any second...

but now it is the cyclicals... they puked up one sector..

and I guess now they try that sector...

Gordon Ramsay

I've realized that one of his big plans is to do a cheap lunch to get people for dinner....

and as one would expect....

He is Topped full for lunch... and about 70-80% for dinner....

which is good...

but you wonder.... if he lowered his prices for dinner... just a little..... would he be packed for dinner too..

it's nto that you want to "Get People"... so much as you would want people to have a great meal that they feel good about the price...

good news

apparently the reason for the rally is because people want the safety of treasuries still.

in bizarro market flight to safety is a good thing...

but we have seen stranger...

the good news is...

gartman is back to Long things you can drop on his head....

good god


btw... it's sell the dollar buy the market again..

and we are at the friday levels....

you could go long... but where has that gotten you since may...

Far Miller Washingtong

Just sent out a Piece about how

"Hey, They're Still Breating"

The email is sort of a "hedge"

we have some cash... and may play it in the future.... on pull backs...

Cash out and go to Bermuda....


this is one of those moments where I just want to Make this shit stop...

My desire to fuck around with it is on the wain.....

Sound like aversion?

but you know... seems like a near term top.... in the making...

cause that is how I feel...

Hedgie/Big Timer Costanza trade

I was just commenting to tony how One of my observations is that this trading has been very darwinian....

Requiring higher levels of skill over time...

so.... Tony and I track a certain investor.... Big time guy... who we both like but....

My thesis is that it is time for him to become Costanza..... Where in this move it's the "Hedgfunds" and the guys that have walked through this fairly cleanly...

well it is time for them to get dirty... time for them to become "Costanza"http://www.geocities.com/beautyhub/costanza.gif

so.... Razor's edge

I like ben....

and I liked Paulson... Paulson was a Hammer where you needed a screwdriver... (or some fucking Cudgel vs fine instrument)

When I measure a... Person...

I know they aren't Me.... and havn't drawn all the same conclusions as I have...

It's interesting to me why they havn't and what they think....

BUT... there is nothing like a person who thinks everything is Black and White... or people who are Fundamentalists.

To me... In life... Life is the Nightmare of Col. Kurz;

"I watched a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor. That's my dream. It's my nightmare. Crawling, slithering, along the edge of a straight razor … and surviving"

When I look at people like Obama, or Bernanke.... I like to see that they too are walking along the edge of a Straight Razor....

What is interesting is that for 6 months we have talked about the metaphor of "Lord of the Flies"...
that Joseph Conrad also wrote "Heart of Darkness"...

I may have to re-read these two books....I'd be curious what I pull from them now 20 years after I read them in Highschool..

the morning bounce

It's the cyclicals.... Transports Coal Retail....

etc...

first recovery...

Not early recovery

Never easy.....

hmmm

I'm going to struggle again Tennis Vs the market....

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

all tied up

see how much the market hates that querry isn't winning!!!

bob Mctiee

Uncle ben a Girlscout... of course we forget about his sidekick..... Paulson..

I'm not sure McTeer would call Paulson a girl scout to his face....
http://next-thing.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/ottsel_loves_girl_scouts.jpg

I have yet to hear

what it was in the FOMC that the market wouldn't like....

according to CNBC...

but I have yet to hear the great proclamation.... but if we can get another 50 pts on the downside...

they can make one up.

Sam!!!!


After trading up on The Sharapova loss this morning.....

American Sam Querry has been Pushed to a 4th set.....

I don't think the market likes it
http://www2.tennisserver.com/images/photofeed/2007/wsfg-masters/070817/Blake-Querrey/Cincy-20070817-2091.jpg

it's like I'm running a fucking Pairs trade here...


FIrst on CNBC

Gov Sanfordhttp://www.llr.state.sc.us/images/sanford.jpg

in love triangle with .....


Kate
http://scrapetv.com/News/News%20Pages/Entertainment/images-3/kate-gosselin-wedding-dress.jpg

or Jon.... or something

no pic

Just imagine a SPX trading choppy for 4 pts.....

they are selling selling treasuries... or trying to...

dollar strong....

but it takes the If-> Then crowd on the announcement to get out of the way....

then for all the stops to get triggered....

then for a trend to happen....

Fucking Fed day...

the other thing that pisses me off about both the fed day and the NFP... is that it's like normal trading stops for 2 days.....

Because I'm a dumb ass

and it felt like we were going to sell off before the fed...

I had to position myself ahead of it...

and we then get the horror show of post Fed Trading....

Why must the market interrupt Tennis!!

First on CNBC

nobody watches Academy awards anymore.... so now they nominate 10 movies instead of 5.....

My word... Maybe people are sick of Pretentious nonsense..... Obviously what we need is twice as much...

Maybe they can make it last twice as long, too.

you want a little forcast

look at the move in the dollar.....


what a shit trade btw.. and that I've hung onto it instead of tossing it...

Poor Discipline

If you want a thesis

Nobody wants to step up into the FOMC...

so... short covering and some day traders playing the trend...

I heard some Imbilcile talk about how "The sell off was a warning to the fed to not take their foot off the gas"...

but why not the Federal Gov. and the stimulus.....

Or my Thesis about Sharapova......

Cruel market

There is a reason that this trading precedes aversion.....

Ask.....

Isn't this just enough to get people back on the Bull!

sharapova is out

and it looks like the market likes it!!!!!

Who Knew!

Q2 distributions

for those who don't know the q2 distributions were declared yesterday in all the proshares
products

And as per Proshares Standard Operating procedure... there is some interesting "Math" involved ...

How do I get in that business......

let go

so...

I'm going to let go till the FOMC

watch some tennis.... Eat some Pie....

Sharapova

5 games to 3

5 games straight!!!

go Maria...

Sorry....

looks like tennis is winning over the FOMC

Sharapova

down 2/6
0/3 in the second....
http://www.beijingolympicsfan.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/maria-sharapova.jpg
It will take some heart to pull this out....

Jon and Kate...

jon_and_kate_announcement

big divorce was the announcement... but for a couple 30 year olds... you look at these pictures, and her "over done 'Do' " and his Liberal use of gell and the Ear Rings....

30 year old Crisis.... anyone "OMG... we aren't 20 years old anymore"!!!

past

so... every fed meeting the materials stocks have had a sentiment high...

that they get all Giddy about Hyperinflation is all the rage....

also the dollar tends to have a low on this day too...

just as the Euro has a low on the ECB...

Fed day....

a day of fed talk....

and I want to lay under the blankets and watch tennis....
http://www.moviegoods.com/Assets/product_images/1010/189390.1010.A.jpg
danger for me... taking my eye off the ball... er.... the stock ball...

I'm not sure I can watch stocks today........

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"