Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Sunday, February 28, 2010

Obligatory chart talk

There is a solid chance of some kind of Inverted Head and Shoulders here. Certainly we want to watch for the Trade of last resort, in a couple places. It "Feels right" to have a False breakout on last Monday's high. This would suggest some kind of "Triangle" probably symmetrical. The next question you have is "on what time frame"... Ya! Good question, It could be on just about any time frame; Daily, 65, 130, 30.
Another thing to watch out for, is some kind of Inverse Head and shoulders here, on the daily. Could be... I'll stick to my Head and shoulders theme, and that this is a right shoulder, forming. I have to say that it looks like we still want to go higher, in the short term.


Sentiment:
Things continue to be mixed, "The Breakout" could convince them into the bullish stance. Traders seem to be 40-60% one way or another. Bears and bulls, Oh My. It's hard to fade either one of these camps. BUT.. Like I've said since last Monday, the Greek MEME feels like it's building again, though over the weekend, the meme is that "They are working it out."... Even if they do, it still works out as a possible "Sell the news"

The 2 most punishing patterns would be Sideways, or some brutal Stair step down.

Another thing I want to add, there isn't much advantage here. It''s probably a slog, unless you are trading individual intraday swings..... Which, Just to say it... I FUCKING HATE.

Friday, February 26, 2010

update

The interesting idea... There is the solid chance, and my thesis has been, and yes, i'm using the world thesis liberally but I would suggest a Right shoulder here....


Oh... how many times I've said "right shoulder"....

The other idea is that we have a triangle, I suggested this to Anthony.

I hate to talk about this, but some consolidation patterns are "Waiting for a Decision" and we may just have a "Waiting for a Decision on Greece" Triangle, forming... as I look at it, it's hard to suggest where it would form... above below...
the concept would be, some kind of Grind over the next couple weeks.

The Smart Folk, suggest that Greece is fucked, I'd agree. I don't think that Europe is like the united states, they don't tend to let the "Market Tail" Wag the Economic Dog.

I'm sort of a supporter of this idea, but that doesn't mean we don't take care of the Economic dog, but there is sort of a "Fuck the People" and "Save the Entitled super wealth" MEME that goes on, here in the United states, which actually creates a more fragile economy.

but BLA BLA BLA.... we are just trying to make money...
Right!!!



on the small scale... there is maybe a trade of last resort, or a small scale consolidation. I can look at some other timeframes and see some other patterns, But I'm not going to Make predictions.

with a Failing greece as a thesis, it's all about When it's going to fail.

I don't do much Macro, but we have had a credit bubble, and to keep it simple the other side of a credit bubble is Credit contraction, and it's not good for the market.... In fact it's 30-40 years of a developing Credit Bubble, and the collapse is absolutely epic.
Beyond that, there are socioeconomic issues, and changes in how we are going to aproach work. It's also time for a respect for "Work" ...
Also some demographic issues...
It's obvious to me, that we have serious political issues for at least 8 more years

It aint good kids, it's a serious and continual headache for some time to come... and there are no shortcuts.

Some morning charts


Oh... so Charts... Umn. Yesterday morning was a recipe for disaster, Everyone loading in short, down 150. And then the reversal. I have a couple friends at MS, they keep thinking i'm asking their advice... they think it is all guessing... it kills me how the Pro's think about the market.


I was Reading a Very Fucking stupid Blog.... Which ... Honestly... just about every fucking blog I read, Reminds me of how fucking stupid Y'all are.

I have been talking about "rotations"

REMBEMBER ROTATION IN... AND ROTATION OUT...

AND!!!!! I'M NOT POINTING OUT A ROTATION IN OR OUT!!!

I bring it up, because as a trader you are Looking at BETA.

I don't know if this hump got the idea of rotations, from here. I'm just trying to point to where the Acton is.

Don't make me put the hurt on you and your macro.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Run the Hamster Wheel

This is Very fucking stupid, Somebody sexed up the wording for Class war/Culture war over Climate change.


then using Scientific studies, to say that scientific studies are biased.

It's circular logic.

So, the point of science is to rid ones self of bias. It's the entire purpose of the scientific method. Then somebody puts together a study that talks about the reason we have the scientific method.

Big Exciting day.

Apparently on Morning Joe, there was a heated discussion between Elizabeth Warren and That shill of the Nixon administration, Pat Buchanan.


Word is that the health care debate starts at 10 Eastern, it should be on every station and it's other 3 NBC affiliates. It's probably on C-Span 3

I'll be popping popcorn for the event.

Word is that the bill is gutted, and they are just going to pass some Shell of it's former self.

I was hoping for some Tactical moves, and am still hoping. I just want to see some blood or some good chess moves. Something beyond the Checkers moves that have been going on.


Where China is investing | FP Passport

Where China is investing | FP Passport

I know leadership


this bounce gives us a chance to Look at what wants to bounce, and what, relative to the SPX wants to go higher. Seems like Regional banks KRE, more than XLF want to make new highs, on any bounce.
Retail......
Consumer discretionary xly

Well...I was psyched for......

I was excited about a little Vic2B or Trade of last resort on thursday morning. Futures are down 6.

I may not get it. They may have puked and the upswing has ended.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

sector update

We had a nice bounce today.


Felt like everyone was caught selling it yesterday, then are long today.

Sentiment feels like a 7.

still with convincing sells
xbi
xes

also still on sell
UUP
rkh

Some simple rotations

These are the only changes
KBE went to a Buy, and was on a sell.(the xlf was "Stalking" a sell)
XPH Went buy from sell.

The other changes are things that were "Stalking" are went to a buy.
SMH, right off the bat.
KIE
XLK
XRT
XLP
XLV
Most of these are threatening new highs.

SO... These are Shitty Parabolic SAR... just a simple SAR.

but it shows that the "Wanabee" leadership ... the next leadership... are the early cycle. Retail...Technology.... Etc
these things.. on a good move, on an economic recovery move, will want to be New Leadership.

Now the Old leadership... it should want to "Lag" Move sideways. This is the reason I'm trying to stay away from Shorting the banks. there is more money elsewhere.

and of course, everyone is fighting the last war... Like they always do.

My sentiment indicator

I always have a hard time with my indicator, on a first pullback.


Basically... everything reads like this

"My!!! That was a Surprise! I wonder if it will continue?"

and the problem is "Where to sell it." because many wonder if it is a trend or a single pullback.

Everybody waits for some kind of bounce to short... it tends to not emerge.

or it is a single pullback.

So... to put a number on it... 4-7. Most people are looking for the bounce.... "Still Holding resistance"...They say.


Tuesday, February 23, 2010

More Parabolic SAR

When last we, were here.

Sell
  • xph
  • xbi
  • xlb
  • xlu
  • xes
New Sells
  • xsd
  • sme
  • xbe
  • rkh
Stalking a sell.
  • xle
  • xlv
  • xlk
  • xop
  • smh
  • xlp
  • xly
  • xly
  • xrt
  • xli
  • iyr
  • kre
  • kie
  • xlf
  • spy
NOW on buy
  • tlt
  • uup

Some charts


I can't take Morning Joe this morning.... No surprise there.


"the bottom line is...." Hey Joe... if that is the bottom line.. WTF are we talking about it.

OK... there was a hammer on the daily(my chart has futures trades in it), Many reasons to think that this sucker is done.
Tony and I talked about that little White "Flag" let us call it, but it wasn't much of a Flag. It's good to watch. My comment was that that "Flag" could have been wave 4 of the short term trend, and we were working on 5....

and maybe it failed.

So... Game on.

Never say I didn't do anything for you

I ran Parabolic SAR on the 130min sectors


First thing on sell, is of course the TLT, and it is "almost a buy"
There are 6 sells

First sell was: xph and xop

I do want to say that XOP is probably the 6th of the sells, and has muddled since wed.

thursday XPH sold, followed by XBI
Friday XLB
Monday XES

There are 6 other sectors, that are "Threatening a Sell Signal"
in this order
XLE, SMH, XLV,XLK

the last 2

XLY and XLP

Still on buy
xlu, rky, xli, UUP, xme, KBE, kie, KRE,xsd,xrt
in no particular order

Monday, February 22, 2010

no big joy

Have to love Bloomberg...


"The lobbyists will stop The Volker Rule, right? That is how this works, congress can blow all they want, but it's the lobbyists that will get their way."
"Yep, that is the way it generally works"

So, sentiment is very positive, hard to put a number on it... Not enough coffee on my end.


Saturday, February 20, 2010

The Chart

The Charts.


For those that don't know... I'm not a Believer. So, when I talk EWT, know that I only take it half serious.... That being said, using Wave Counts, We have probably finished Wave 3. This suggests a solid pullback, then one more high...


Let me also add, that I've spent my entire life, of EW analysis... waiting for one more high, and one more low.I honestly would like a low volume day, a nice 100 million spy shares day.

so the thing to do is watch the "Trade of Last resort" at 110.59... and also watch that "one More high"
But besides the volume, it feels like, the trend is weakening.

Friday, February 19, 2010

all Tiger all the time

Everyone should know how trilled I am to have 2 hours of Wall to wall Tiger Coverage.


Yes, you are a narcissistic addict, and you should lose your family. You will relapse, cheat on them again. I am not interested in the drama.

Are you working the steps... did you give your "power away to god".... YET ANOTHER WAY FOR YOU TO DENY YOUR FUCKING RESPONSIBILITY, YOU FUCKING CHILD!

Heard on the street:
Nike, doesn't understand.... when is tiger going to play again.... I mean a man is going to be a man right? Lets get back to work selling Shoes and shirts!



Oh, the market! I should have posted earlier. We needed that "Oh, the world isn't going to end.", and see everyone crushed on a "SELL SELL SELL"

I'm a big fan of the market 'selling, and we find out why later'... they can make up little petty reasons, along the way. Still waiting for some kind of sign of reversal. We do have a clean Wave count and the defense on this, should push sentiment up.


Dan Abrams was just on, talking about the public's right to know in the Tiger case...
"They don't have a right to know who he is sleeping with. But what happed that night, because the police were called, they may have a right to know."

Well, Dan I'm sort of with you, but he did for some fucked up reason, become a Menace on the streets and hit something. Could have been, my home, or my child or my car. So we get to know why he was a menace on the road.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

there is the chart

so... still nothing to hang a bearish hat on.


I will say that We can give the market a nice 8 on the sentiment scale... I'll Look tonight, but it could be a 9.

the chart

here is the chart.... minor little doji... but the volume was strong... I'm not saying anything about it. Always the chance of some kind of 3 doji reversal, or the evening star confirmation tomorrow.


They feel complacent...
Tony had the quote, "It's like the sell off never happened."

we hit the 50EMA, yesterday, there is also that 1100 "Breakout" trade of last resort.

but I did put out some Trial Balloons, I'm not optimistic about them...

which is why they may just work out, one can always trade tomorrow.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Ugh...

Regular workouts, and diet restrictions...


have me on the ...

Just need to get in the flow of it.

I don't have a good read right now. Mostly because it is not definitive.

I was hoping for some kind of 8 on the DSI(sentiment indicator)... and it's muddled.

Nice big up day, it's easy to say some kind of short term pullback.

we did hit my targets, but to me, it just means Look around... We will see how she plays out.

If you want another sentiment read....

Exhaustion, and maybe more than just me. I'd suspect there are a few people weary of this.... Whatever it is.


Tuesday, February 16, 2010

hat hanger


Your not going to get anything to hang a bearish hat on. 130-140K ...


Sentiment should be fairly positive.

The curiosities

for the day, are going to be volume, which looks very light, and if we get a reversal candle.

Morning

No joy in my "sell the close" trade.


It's got me in a bit of a "Mood" this morning... But it's life in trading... Not a huge deal, but..

I also need to do some "regular work"... so....

bla bla bla...

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Update..

At one point I'm going to have Come to Jesus with this blog....


Please understand, I do a Million things, and the last of which is sit here and try and get Blown, by writing this blog.

Today's action... The more times the market bumps up against resistance/support, Like that red Trade Channel, the more likely it is to break through that resistance/support. The early morning test of that level, I did not find encouraging to my 109.50 target on the Spy.

I do want to say, I told Tony to buy it, and just see, but it didn't act well during the day, and seemed to want to act like a "Failing" bounce.
I want to add, I also told that to tony, and suggested that the best thing would be just sort of trade with the swings, as you can.

It's still possible to get 109.50, but I did sell the close.

this was of course before I realize "Nobody wanted to hold them into the Weekend" Which I would have taken as Contrary sentiment.... my prediction for Tuesday is Up 3-5 on the spx.


Friday, February 12, 2010

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.

It became apparent that we were going to get a bit of a larger pattern here. I came up with a 109.50 target on the SPY, or 1095 or so on the SPX Plus or minus 5Pts on the spx or .50 on the spy.


This could just be all Raindancing on my part... Buyer be ware.

I was looking at sentiment, It sort of feels like complacency, I don't know how to rate that. I'm not sure I can throw more than a 7 on the DSI(sentiment indicator)... I may be able to stretch it to an 8... If I count my own Sentiment... LOL

MOM! I don't want to go to work tomorrow.

This at least feels better as a correction(oversold Bounce) Sentiment wise, Though I can still see some technicals that hold bullish.


Thursday, February 11, 2010

Super fun Market Drama!!!

I noticed the Triangle Early, and chose not to fuck with it.....


I guess I wanted a little larger pattern and some more positive sentiment, and this seems to want to deliver it.

Break out the Rain Dancing Shoes.

I went long Once, and Can't bring myself to Do it again.

I could be totally fucking wrong and we are back to new highs.... For some reason, and a stupid one, I just can't play the price action. I admit it up front.

Everybody is on a hedge

Sort of a 5 on my DSI... wouldn't you think.


I think we just have to stick with my 7 from yesterday.

Now for my bullshit hedge.

I wish sentiment had hit like a high 8

I wish today had been the "Top" and not yesterday. That would have given us a 3 day correction and not a 2 day... or 2 and a half.

But I can also say that it's roughly paying out to script but futures are up 6 fair value of 3.7... Fair Value is very optimistic... that is a solid sentiment read.

Like I Said "To script" 2 swing fast flag, I would have preferred 3 bars then the "Inside" day or Pause.

But as I read sentiment everybody is on a "hedge"... "market in Decision mode".

I didn't watch Fast money, so those numbers are not in my sentiment number.

Personally I've stuck with my script.. and I may get burned.

I game played well is better than a game not played at all.

Bullishly... you do have to look at the volume.

BLA BLA BLA BLA...

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Justification

Not to say that I feel like I need to justify, or clarify.


The thing I hate is day to day "keeping you updated" on my outlook.
We know better than to trade Trend lines... and it's better to use them as an "Alert" than to trade off of them.

Always the chance of "Larger Patterns" and just a 2 day correction may not be enough.

The 7-8 on my sentiment indicator...

*shrug*

but also, my willingness to "Justify" or clarify... can be a good counter sentiment indicator.

I swear I lose IQ points every time I hear the constant repeated daily MEME's Read:cyclonic coming off of CNBC and Bloomberg.

I swear I have shit to do, besides listen to Yet another person talk about U.S. Treasury bubbles or Debt from any of the talking heads.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

There is your chart

That is a fairly weak C wave... or Weak Wave 3.


....

Oh! the DSI my sentiment indicator... I have to go 7 or 8 Tony was talking 11... but... I would say there are still 10-20% bears hanging on.

In Theory that number should just build until it goes 100% and shouldn't quite go to Zero Bears. With variations...

I do see some positive technicals.... But... *Shrug*

I also checked out Doug Kass, and he is Not too Long... and Cautious.

"Not too long not too short"..... he says...

Like I said, he could get bearish fast.

Running behind

I umn.... well we got my Fast flag...


I guess it could be something larger....

End of the day sort of looked like we ran out of Energy. I'd like to see an "Inside day"

We will see.

I'm way behind today, so... I'll try and look at the charts and read some sentiment sometime this evening.

Currently I'd give a DSI(sentiment number) of 6 or 7... It could be higher.

One more up day would get it Boiling...

but we will see.

What is that

I know I didn't post, but sentiment was very negative at the close. Dennis Gartman was on Fastmoney saying "oooohhhh Market Scary" everyone talking about no confirmation....


bla bla bla We will see if that will chance at today's close and we can get the bottom Callers back out.

And Fulfill the Fast flag.

Now sentiment is more positive... or negative sentiment is on the Wain...

Still... Maybe a bottom, or... maybe my Fast flag

Monday, February 8, 2010

I'm still expecting a fast flag

2-3-4 days/bars. So don't let that Asshole fool you talking about Dow 10K 3.0

At least she isn't reading off a teleprompter.

Right?



Did Palin write the answers to Tea Party Convention questions on her hand?


Tonight, former Alaska governor Sarah Palin spoke to the National Tea Party Convention in Nashville, TN,

bla bla bla.... I'll let you go over there and read it.

But thank god all those skills from Cheating on HighSchool Exams is coming in handy.

To be fair.. Big deal. But... it's good to bring up the teleprompter thing again. Cause the last thing you want is a president who reads a teleprmpter... get one that has shit written in pen on her hands.

Now the Trouble.

My big complaint is now I have to spend time Reloading... Which means more trading...

Sunday, February 7, 2010

DSI

Tony likes me to give a number to my sentiment indicator.


I remarked that we were at a 4 in the afternoon, then I thought a 7 by the close

Bearish to bullish... IN SENTIMENT... Not ... My Market Read. Sentiment being a Contrary indicator... though my own market direction can be sketchy.

I've been doing some review of the usual suspects, and we aren't as bullish as I thought we were.

I think I have to go with a 6. I have honestly not heard as many bottom calls as I have since friday at 2am...

Feels like, though there may be a bounce... there are quite a few people lined up to do the Bullish Rain Dance, this time.

Saturday, February 6, 2010

Clarification

Some People... seem a little freaked out. Which I find Valid, We should hate this market, and find it Offensive and Ridiculous... and just a nightmare to navigate.


This Isn't Fun!

I'm looking at the above swing, Marked in red. It is my Thesis that this swing is Over. That where I have marked with the Green Arrow, under the White lines. Is a nice "Trap". And it is going to "Ram It" up the Bears Ass...
For how long? I don't Know.
Where is it going? I don't know.
Here are the swings Marked out on the Daily. This way I can talk about the Intermediate Move.

Is the swing in Blue finished? I don't know. I suspect that swing is over. 70%
Is this Blue swing just wave A in a larger Corrective Pattern? I don't know. Probably 70%

Is the blue swing the entire Intermediate Trend?
These are my 2 concerns and the supporting evidence for this:
  1. THAT VOLUME WAS HUGE... We haven't seen 500Million spy shares since March. Not even the "little Correction" we saw in May/june(whenever) Traded that many shares. HUGE!!!!!!
  2. Doug Kass believes that is probably "The Correction", Now Doug is fickle. In 3 days or in 2 weeks, he could be Uber Bearish. It's also possible that he wants to "Pretend he was right", and Rain Danced from September Through Jan, He got his "Good Call", and wants to "Mark a Win". Even though it is a Pretend win.(No wonder he Twitter Blocked me.)(To give Doug his due, he suffers from being Definitive in the market. As opposed to all the "Hedgers"
How Significant is this evidence for an Intermediate Swing? I give it 50/50 as ... Significant... to put it in a phrase "It gets the Hair up on the back of my neck"

What does all this Mean.... I don't fucking know... I'm just trying to make money!

So... I think it is going to Bounce.... "Some kind of Bounce"... and some kind of bounce on the Daily.... 4 bar flag? Some kind of 3 week bounce?
Yes, this is what i think... somewhere from 4 bars to 3 weeks....

that is what I think.

maybe we move lower... maybe that was a bottom.

The best thing the bears have going for them, is that that was the most well called bottom EVER!

Friday, February 5, 2010

the question ..

If we have this nice little bear trap here, short term or not....

My expectation

I just think that a "Real Bottom" would have more conviction, on the sell side.


But... I'm very distracted, it's a friday, I'm very tired... So my read is Very murky.

My point is... I'm fairly convinced into a good bounce... But I don't know where it is going.

We never know

After yesterday's panic... this could be the follow up discouragement, short term. We never know.


this was the 200EMA

Sentiment

My concern about sentiment right now....

Is that there are numerous people in the past 4 hours of trading(yesterday afternoon and this morning)

who say "You can't Buy it"...

that is an important Key word, for some kind of bounce. Very negative as sentiment.

OVERALL..... LONG TERM... I STILL THINK WE NEED TO SEE A REAL PANIC PUKE-AGE!!!

THE OLD OFF THE CLIFF SELLING
In the context of this overall uptrend.... this is nothing, It's most significant quality is the speed of the sell off.

No joy

on my prediction for the morning strength... so.... they were dying to sell it, this morning.


So we may get a nice bounce here.

We were so... miserable yesterday... "They" still don't know what the hell is going on. But there is that "Horror show" Feeling... nice downtrend...

It may just want to suck them back in again.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Dow 10,000 3.0

This is I'm sure the Greatest Contrary indicator.

Break IN!!!!!! Dow 10,000 Bearish.





I Made these up.

I just want to predict the NFP

.... My Prediction is that....


NOBODY KNOWS SHIT about the number tomorrow.

Reaction..... Better than expected......

but still No Joy.

Down 11 on the spx

What the hell is that all about.


The problem is that is a huge gap.




By Michael Patterson

Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Betting on declines in U.S. Treasury bonds is a “no brainer,” said Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of “The Black Swan.”

“Every single human being should have that trade,” Taleb said at a conference in Moscow.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Downswing

So, that is what we know... it's now officially a downswing. The question is if, this is just a correction in a larger Up Move. a B wave in a larger 4 Bar Bear Flag, Or a Legitimate Up trend. Off a bottom.

Project Mayhem


.... Of course the first rule of Fight Club....


So, Enough said. It looks like our upswing has ended, and we will now either get a down wave from a larger ABC correction, started last friday, This being the second day of a very extreme 2 or 4 bar flag, on the daily.

We are just on the edge of that "Swing"/"Flag"


Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Why is it...

What I don't get is why is it that Glenn Beck Cares that he said "They are taking you to a place to be slaughtered"




he will just say it next week



the great part about this is that he says.. I said it in the context of "The truth was being slaughtered."

Yes Glenn you slaughter the truth.

can't say it's not a trend.

Monday, February 1, 2010

Do democrats create more jobs?

I ran across this at CATO...


Politifact.com looked into a remark from Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y., that “Democrats have been considerably more effective at creating private-sector jobs.”

The statement was rated true, as a purely statistical matter.


Aparently it is true... but only statisticly... maybe even scietificly... and in ... You know Reality.

But when it comes to right wing Congnative Dissonance... If you use that as the metric... Compleatly untrue!

To be fare, it goes on to say that little of it has to do with the president. Obviously, there are other branches of government. The problem is that when the overall Right wing argument is that the president is destroying the economy. I guess you would have to concede that much of it had to do with the people who have held the house and senate for the past 10 years.

obviously it has been running

that is an agressive sell point

morning thoughts

I'm working on some other projects still.


and it's killing me to multi task.

Many of the indicators went to extremes on friday.

we will see what happens.

sorry, I don't have much more...

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"