Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

We waited 3 days for that

So, What a bunch of F#$( Ups. They had a perfect opertunity to push the dollar UP. and Inflation Down...With almost no cost. And they didn't do it.

The market Wanted to be Dissapointed....

Once again, Mother market has to do all the work.

Explain to me why you would buy commodities right now? Because they are in a Confirmend Down trend?

Anyone have any more money to throw against the dollar and into Commodities?

What is oil going to $140?

I'm in the Confirmed Uncle Ben Is Dumber than Cramer Camp.

They could have at least gone 4-3

Tough Trade

Well I'm still head scratching.... I think that near term the dollar bears and commodity bulls don't want to give it up....... I think it's going to be a fight.

Overall, I'm sticking with my thesis that for a few weeks the commodities are done... and that that linear regression needs to be re-evaluated.

have I posted my prediction.

They will cut nothing, and say... we are on hold.... not that we are done.... but that they are going to wait...

and may say...... we probably won't tighten....for some time.

this mornings fed task force.

This is the video I was talking about this morning

Great debate......

We may not trade this way... but I'm working on my thesis for Long and Shallow.... and maybe the market gets bad... next spring.....

tough though... maybe I'm believing my own bullshit.... and talking my book

Sector rotation

so, the crude oil supply posts a strong build and the xlf does that.

Live chart


The ETF ones are messed up.... and I don't want to hack at them....
if they start working I'll post them...


Well, there is something for the spdrs

Fed

..... Well... Guess what I'll be listening to all day here at the trading desk.....

No charts yet...

Fucking Citigroup.....

I don't know what the hell is up this morning... but materials and oil again???? With a weakening dollar...... Sigh!!!

Fucking Shitygroup. they are going to Zero... sell and buy a good bank.

Well my prediction.... for the fed.....

I say the fed cuts Nothing..... and they say... "we are going to save bullets for the future... We intend to hold rates as long as we can.... and only cut with deteriorating statistics."

I think the fed will cut Nothing... and the market will trade up....

but I also think... no mater what we trade up...

Interesting debate this morning

I like Brian Westbury... Not sure if he is right, but he talks sense... I'm amazed he goes through all the trouble....

But it was great, one day I heard him talk about how fed cuts have an affect over a long time... over the course of 10 years on inflation.... and that not only does it take time for the affects of that inflation to be seen, but that it takes many years to correct it after it's done.....

I'll look to post the cnbc debate at one point today.

One of these days

I woke up this morning with this phrase in my head....

The end of it was .....I'm going to get some nice healthy sleep... like 8-10 hours.

then after feeding my head Albert Hoffman Musings...

It reminded me of my misspent youth......

One of these days.......

how about an in-memoriam quote

Through my LSD experience and my new picture of reality, I became aware of the wonder of creation, the magnificence of nature and of the animal and plant kingdom. I became very sensitive to what will happen to all this and all of us.

Albert Hoffmann

LSD Inventor On His Final Trip

"Albert Hofmann, who died on Tuesday aged 102, synthesised lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) in 1938 and became the first person in the world to experience a full-blown acid trip.... Hofmann was disappointed when his discovery was removed from commercial distribution. He remained convinced that the drug had the potential to counter the psychological problems induced by 'materialism, alienation from nature through industrialisation and increasing urbanisation, lack of satisfaction in professional employment in a mechanised, lifeless working world, ennui and purposelessness in wealthy, saturated society, and lack of a religious, nurturing, and meaningful philosophical foundation of life.'

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

how about some closing day charts


This is this week... Totals


each day this week.
This is a Recap of last week... Less Monday.

Agriculture and materials are pull back hard... if the fed cuts .25 and says no more... then they will keep pulling back, and we look for some real panic to get back in.

The play book says Financials, Consumer cyclical/retail.

This Citigroup thing... has me nervous for tomorrow... I'm hoping Citi and all it's shitty Cousins burn in hell and my regional keep swinging.

and look at those damn Transports....

Libor fed funds spread

Current Previous ------- --------

O/N 2.44500 2.44500

1WK 2.70750 2.75875

2WK 2.75875 2.80125

1MO 2.82750 2.86250

2MO 2.85313 2.88375

3MO 2.87281 2.89938

4MO 2.91000 2.94375

5MO 2.94875 2.99875

6MO 2.98625 3.04188

7MO 3.00750 3.06750

8MO 3.02688 3.09000

9MO 3.04500 3.11125

10MO 3.06750 3.13375

11MO 3.08875 3.15625

12MO 3.10750 3.17875

wave counts


I did some wave counts..... I still hold with yesterday being a "Wave 3" remains to be seen if we are still in wave 3 or this is wave 4......... But I still am holding with my thesis on a breakout. But there is a wave count that ends yesterday..... The reason I'm doubtful is because that first move is completely an "Inside move"... and those moves are usually not valid.


this concerns me.... I like that the regional are stronger than the Fat head banks... But concern.

The great barry ritholtz and financials

Ya.... Barry who I respect the hell out of, goes off about not buying financials..... If you are an investor, that is probably good advice.....

if you are an investor... let me give you advice. put your money in 3 month bonds, till the Job 3month moving average NFP is +50k. When it dumps below 100k get out of the market, you are not missing anything. but losses.

but for those of us who like to trade...

ETF

I built some charts again.... this time of the ETF indexes.




this isn't updateing very well....
That and my listen to bush speak and take a nap....

Labor

Labor disgraces no man; unfortunately, you occasionally find men who disgrace labor. Ulysses S. Grant

Monday, April 28, 2008

sorry.....

tired... I was looking at this

http://www.powerswings.com/2007/05/09/chapter-one-crossing-the-threshold/

that seems like a very interesting book.

I'm realy ass draging these days... all I can do to keep up with all my bullshit.

Hi ho all....

Well, I'm trying to get the book closed... and get decoupled from mother market....


Speeking of Decoupling... My thesis is that we are more coupled with the world markets than ever... but also that the market in some ways will decouple from the U.S.....


but.. we will stop trading as much U.S. recessions, and we will start trading global ones......


So as a modification of my theisis... Maybe this gets drug out longer... because of decoupling....


I was stairing at charts, and it's starting to get less clear that we are still in the "Third Wave" of the current move...... there are ways at looking at wave counts and we are done....... We have had a second high after that pull back last week....... *shrug*... it's not clear....


it's going to be time to pound through some charts for a few hours....


But I'm tired.... After a winter of Shit food, too much sweets and junk(meaning chips and salsa, and too many breakfasts of Eggs and Bacon... and too much Granola) But being back on a regular diet has me exhausted, and with strong desires for pie.... But I digress... shows my fatigue

More basic materials weakness..... Some Ag weakness.....

resistance


look at that resistance...... I like some of what I'm seeing as far as sector rotation.... but continued strength in materials.. transports... I'm not saying I want to see weakness... but how about less strength. all and all this Nigeria stuff keeping oil up, isn't helping with the rotation.... or the false rotation.
someone said last week "the recession has to prove itself" and that it has to do it through earnings. One thing I'm getting tired of is banging against these resistance levels... I try and avoid them... The stupid thing is that it's like the last little bit of juice out of an orange.... you work realy hard, and get little out of it.
if we can realy get a break through... it should be worth it.

this feels good... it would be nice to see 27.20+

Financials 27

back up at the resistance again...... Interesting a threatend break out at 1pm...

LIBOR

Little move up in the overnight

Current Previous
O/N 2.44500 2.39125
1WK 2.75875 2.78875
2WK 2.80125 2.82000
1MO 2.86250 2.88125
2MO 2.88375 2.89813
3MO 2.89938 2.91250

this is a different chart

Not sure who pointed it out

it obviously remains to be seen.....

The market is behaving as we expected, higher prices to come. But let's look at some evidence,TRANnew recovery high, NYSE new recovery high, and even the S&P 500 just made a new recovery high, And that is where all the bears have been hiding. But now they are exposed. Oh by the way, they (the bears) are now calling this a rally in a bear market. The same was said about the rally that followed the 87 crash, I know I was there. And every other rally that followed an important low. And all of this while the big money guys are still in their Monday morning meetings. Talk to you later.

I've been watching Trading With TK, I'm a huge fan of his site..... His error will be.... and as all off wall-street is.... and as fits my Thesis on this rally.... About how this is every trader trading the past 30 years 83-2007 of recessions..... if it "Isn't different this time" then that march move was the low..... But .... If it wasn't and if this is a pure early 70's play..... Stagflation..... We should get more downside.... and a Scary move down coming soon.... with no help from the fed, who are Deeply out of bullets....

This is what is making me nervous..... "is it different this time.... or is it the same.".... I've been dying to know if the Old time traders, are just playing this like generals fighting the past wars.... and not remembering "The Great War of 74".....

Damn

I'm still very tempted to impulse buy.....

rare book?

have some desired reading materials shiped to my home?

Bottles of scotch, or whine...

I could pay more bills

Fed Stimulus

... I just checked my account... My accountant said I should have received my stimulus first based on social security number or something, that and.... I don't know.

but I checked and there it is, unexpected money that used to be mine, and then wasn't, and now is again.

and I paid all my bills...... I'm a freak, It's all about my credit rating.... I used to try and make sure to pay every bill at the first chance. Then I sometimes will pay up in advance..... but I noticed that sometimes I don't get credit for it on my credit report.... so I sort of have to play a numbers game with creditors. Where I have to pay a bill, then a week later, I have to pay it again to get credit for paying 2 bills in advance, instead of 1... but in a larger amount.

Then there are the Pain in the ass Creditors that I refuse to allow to draw any interest on my account... Thereby paying within a few days... Which is stupid because, it splits up when I pay bills.... Since I'd rather do them all at the same time.... Every creditor should specifically ask you when you would like the bill due... but of course they would rather they receive all their money at the same time....

Unfortunately, I still have a bunch of money left.....

now my philosophy is that extra money should always go to mother market.

Since

I just had to put up with 10 minutes about how Milly Cyrus..AKA Hanna Montana.... Is a Cheep slut in vogue... or vanity fair...... or what ever cheep slutty magazine she was in.

Let me just qualify, I'm all about Cheep sluts... and a little disturbed that her 15 year old flesh/ With Baby fat is being petaled in Magazines... but what else is capitalism about if not pedaling the baby fat of 15 year olds in fashion magazines....

But let me get to the point.... So on CNBC Erin Burnett... says.... "The problem here is that people like to Monger".... I was a little head scratched at this use of the word monger, was curious specifically what she was trying to say.... Since she must subscribe to "word of the Day" or... something.

mon·ger
play_w("M0385500")
(mnggr, mng-)
n.
1. A dealer in a specific commodity. Often used in combination: an ironmonger.
2. A person promoting something undesirable or discreditable. Often used in combination: a scandalmonger; a warmonger.
tr.v. mon·gered, mon·ger·ing, mon·gers
To peddle.

I have to say... that Yes, Erin I agree....... CNBC and you, do like to monger...... you and they are mongers, as you sit in front of us and parade the pictures of a 15 year old kid on tv, and debate the issue, and call it "journalism".

Something undesirable(pedophilia, being used to promote a career and a brand of Hanna and Cyrus, and by Disney).... being promoted by your show...... You are correct... you and CNBC like to monger.

and in an added twist of irony, I am mongering, your mongering of Cyrus and Disney's Mongering.

live chart


So, it's not live but 20 minute delay.... but if you hit refresh... it should update through the day..
and the time of the indexes is listed.

monday morning

I'm ready for a nap,,

I should get my stimulus today..

do I "Pay bills in advance"

or.. dump it into my trading account..

or... buy some crazy ipod or shit I don't need....

gold

I think for reasons currently unknows gold is range bound $870-950...

poor man

No, not rich. I am a poor man with money, which is not the same thing. Gabriel Garcia Marquez

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Sunday action

..... According to my chart astrology.... This is what we are looking at... at least one more high... with like a 1 or 2 day pull back ...

so.... We could still keep moving up and set a few new highs in this trend.... then a pull back of at least one day... then another uptrend...

The queing on this will definitely be the financials....

And..... in the next... few weeks... materials should pull back, as the dollar catches a bid, and stops it's rapid decline to becoming the Peso.

The NFP comes out this week... and if the Weekly claims are correct.... we should see a number in the negative 60-80K..... But I'm not a pro at the jobless numbers so... I'd defer to anyone who has a better handle on it.

Here is the problem with employment... Negative 200K is cooked into the books already.... It's expected over the next 4 months.... Then it should recover.... this is my understanding of what should happen.... if they get worse than that, or if they don't recover.... this will be a surprise to the market.

other than that, I've had an unsatisfying weekend... but do feel rested enough for a new week.

I'm a little sketchy... with a possible change in the Macro-chart Astrology.... I'll be tempted to get very defensive over the next few weeks, depending on the flow of what I see going on, and what actually goes on.

Friday, April 25, 2008

ugh post

... I hate the market on friday night, I'm apt to just forget about it... and try and move on..

I read a blog today, and the mantra was "It's never different this time".... I haven't read that blog enough to know if they are serious......

This is a 30 year super cycle... and maybe a once in 100 year super cycle....there is a name for that.... But regardless, in my research... (realize the sampling of super cycles) is rather thin.. There for using scientific method on such a limited sample is tricky.. and the data is rough

What am I getting at.... Before this bear happened, I did enough research, with the tools I had at the time. to realize that this break out.... on the theme that "it's not different this time" is predictable... because it's not different this time.....

the difference will be that materials, and inflation will keep a bid in the market.... The money made on the short side in a bear market is .... Well it's always limited, in it's time frame.. you make money from 100% of the market, down 20%.... then the market comes back up 10%... Then Down another 20-30%.... Then the Bear market muddles in that range for the duration of the Bear market...... But another Recession will take us out of the Bear market....

Let me just Reiterate that I'm talking about a Secular Bear..... A bear market where the market goes nowhere for Years... and the worst years are after the "Crash" Cause the Year after the Crash, as the market recovers.... is profitable, if you purchased after the crash....

What I'm getting at, is that this Break-out attempt is 100% predictable... and on a Risk-management perspective... Why not take advantage of it.... Even if it is False, a break out of 5%.... is still 5%..... Now if you cash out after the 5%... the market just slowly rises after it.... and you don't miss anything, by cashing out... 1% Who gives a shit....

But, the que will be if the Materials Fail or not..... I predict a St udder step in the materials, since the Growth in commodities is increased by the Federal Reserve......

But if this Truly is a "Bear", Besides a short Stumble, there won't be much further weakness....

what is my prediction $850 in gold? Below that and maybe it won't be different this time.....

But like a good quarterback, I'll call those plays when we get there... This is the "Breakout" stage, Rotation from materials-financials.

true or not...... a Breakout will be a Breakout...

well, Dang

I'm getting better at compartmentalizing, what I'm doing Vs. what makes sense to the market. Back to the same stupid market I know and Hate.... It's like finding an old girlfriend, that the sex is good... but you hate her all the same....

It's funny, I hear all this "Reality" about how dreadful it all is, and sure enough it makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up......

"never did mind about the little things".

for about 30 seconds today I could smell the breakout.

I didn't realize... Food inflation was front page of the local paper... definatly time for a pull back in commodities.... I should run some charts.

All and all, have a great weekend

Dig that Weekly Chart


Big winner Consumer Cyclical. Materials, financial, transports capital goods.

.... how about a move back to 26.20.... I wouldn't be suprised if we just move back to 26.50... and then get the breakout.

xlf, financials

27.37 is the Feb high.
27.17 is the mar. high

Break out of the transports... then breakout of the financials.... breakout of the indexes.

or not...

Simpler chart


this one may be readable

You say.... i like the charts

but can we get more detail.

Libor


I guess I'm going to put the number out too.

Overnight is now 2.39% and 3 monthe 2.915%. Which is slightly lower for the Overnight(3BP), and slightly higher on the 3month(.5BP)

Chart Astrology


10 days of the SPY..... Me, chart astrology says this has one more high in it... at a minimum....
Other thing is..... Again this kind of looks like a 1400 spx Top out.
I just saw a debate on cnbc... one technician saying we were topping the other saying we were going to break out.... Funny thing... I agree with both... we are quite possibly going to breakout.... into a Top... Smoothing out volatility... into a stall... Bear Capitulation... then we can move back down..

mid day action

Semiconductors... trying to lead us back
XLF following nicely Let me just cover.... Though I am Long banks..... I'm just doing it as a trade.... I learned long ago that it doesn't pay me to be right about the market. I can be Right all I want and I can still lose money.... The secret is to figure out what the fools will be doing and be ahead of them... and sell to them.

With the Fed, not easing... the G in the PEG(even though I don't actually believe in PEG) is lower.... Therefore the Liniar regression for those stocks is less..... not only does that slope need to be corrected, but the stocks need to pull back from the rocket ride..... Regardless of materials being the Stock to be in..... Long term....

We can try to test the chart


Using the spreadsheet with the chart.... For both the previous chart and this one. hitting refresh will be nessisary

Live Chart


I'm hoping this will update live.

I'll try and monitor it and check, one great indicator will be if the date and time update.

Well it does refresh... but you have to hit your refresh button too.

The Contrarian

... I saw that the fly is moving into banks...... damn.

The Dollar/euro is 1.55... from 1.56.... That is just a huge move...

My downside projection for gold is 850.... I'm thinking I could be wrong and we could get 800..

For oil.... I think the Hedgies are going to stay there Umn.... I think that will be a good indicator for a more "Real" Move into equities... Maybe a $20 move in oil... could show that the hedgies have moved out in mass.

Let me just say..... The "recession" is not over, nor is the Materials story... But Near term, I think it could be a bad place to be.

Now.... The Great Rick Santelli... has called the bottom in both equities, and in the Dollar. This does Mess with me a bit.... That man is the Smartest man on T.V. and certainly CNBC... and that opinion is.... Tough to reckon with... But if it's true... Banks are going through the roof. As The wall street playbook, says rotate from materials to financials/retail.... and it's time for the long road down for materials.

The difference is... It's different this time..... One thing that is different is that if the fed usually doesn't end easing for about 6 months after the Bottom..

It's going to be fun to see, I could be wrong.

Contradiction- Pascal

Contradiction is not a sign of falsity, nor the lack of contradiction a sign of truth.
-Blaise Pascal

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Bla

I'm still hacking away at charts.....

I saw fast money.....

I suggested that maybe the XLF would make a stand before 24.......

and it did today.
As people rotated out of materials and into financials and consumer names.

I expect this to be the trade through the fed meeting next week.

I watched some of "fast money" today... and there was an argument about what happened today.

Everything opened lower... all sectors... But quickly Financials and utilities recovered....

Materials and energy were very weak all day (for no good reason, except the fed isn't going to cut more rates). After that Technology started to recover, followed by consumer and Housing Crap..... After the XLF ran to 26.50... it was tired and gave up... moved back to 26.25? I think... and we have our day.....

so, the fast money folk who tried to convince us that it was consumer or tech that lead the rally..... NOPE.....

This all fit into my thesis about financials breaking out..... and it's a distinct possibility....

but I am talking my book.

The carts are great, I'm just getting overwhelmed with what indexes to put in them..... I have all the US DJI sectors in one chart... it's like 140 indexes to track... Also all the wilshire indexes... I didn't even understand the wilshire indexes till now...

I love the charts and they make it a bit easier and faster to understand what is going on in the market...... Maybe the next project is to make the charts query my stock servers......

I had a buddy who wanted to build his own quant once.... I'd argue against the quants... especially since... it's kind of about putting together what is happening... as a series of events... putting all the pieces together and calculating the outcome.

3 days of sector rotation

Libor


Falling Spreads.... Overnight comes down 10BP almost every day.

Check this out.

Live(20 min delay) updating Leaders, and laggard indexes..... Now that is Fucking Cool...
this is what I stayed up way to late last night building...
I need better indexes.... but.... Realy cool

Water, and initial claims

Initial claims

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Hey Look Chart Porn


This is what sectors were up in the last 2 days.... Tells us what is holding the market up... what is dragging it down.

Look... AAPL getting smacked around after hours...

LIBOR


That Overnight level is comming donw.... We will see how it behaves into the weekend...

Midday muddle

I've been playing with the VWAP so it's now on my charts. After a strong open and run higher, the market pulled back to an intraday low... but not a 2 day low.... and is now moving higher. I posted days ago that I wouldn't have been surprised to see the spy pull back to 136. Never happened... I suspect the Wave B pull back after our run to the 1398 level is over, and we are going to do some Distribution for a few days(4-7) between here and 1410 ish....
The XLF continues to be weak, and is defying my thesis on a break out in financials.... guess I'll just keep swing trading them. The XLF will probably pull back to 24.... and again run to 27.... If this happens I'd use this as a que to get short..... My regional are pulling their usual pull back to their range bound lows...... Tough to say... but they probably aren't to be trusted....
The SMH has crossed back above the Vwap... and thos that VWAP... say that will probably lead us higher for the rest of the day.

I'm going to stick with my slow Melt up theory.... so.. Maybe an up 100 day, followed by an up 50..... up 25 .... Up 0....... Bear capitulation...
but do you believe I'm just waiting taking a Break from trading, and organizing my MP3's.....

Morals- Hemmingway

About morals, I know only that what is moral is what you feel good after and what is immoral is what you feel bad after. Ernest Hemingway

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

I think I'll throw another chart at us

Maybe we can use google docs to track sector movement.

Well these google charts are neat... but I'm not sure I have enough time to devote to them

Umn.....

Primaraly I'm staying out of all this..... We arn't going to break out to 1450.......

consider this..... we finaly got a good pull back of the move to 139.7... In the downmove we had no less than 4 100% retracements.

Still my thesis is a move above 1400... as a false breakout.

a big change

I was having troubles with FeedReader this morning...or yesterday, and I decided to toy with Bloglines as an agrigator....... Very nice so far..... too bad feedreader was so skrewd up I couldn't esport my links.... but a good purge of some of the more useless blogs is a good thing...

Little market update....

It is good to see a solid pull back..... The shitty one yesterday... made me very suspect.... but it this does seem to be bullish, that we get some buying up at high levels.

for some reason, I have no desire to trade.... maybe it was sort of being behind last week that got me so motivated .....

I always find it funny when people who don't know that just about everyone has allergies... and they think for some reason they have a spring cold...
But for some reason they can't shake it for Weeks... or even for most of spring......

but bloglines... it's good stuff.

rupricket... murdock Ultimate troll

.... I just don't understand why he needs to buy more papers to spread his opinion.... He is the newspaper version of the Ultimate troll.... Keeps buying pappers till somone believes his bullshit.

From a buisness marketing stand.... I already know his opinion.... Why should I pay for it when I can get it from Fox news for Free.... or for the cost of my time to listen to that bullshit.

but it will be a mistake to pay to have that same opinion, when I can ignore it for free.

Seems like it will soon get to be a come to jesus moment for me and the WSJ.

Can't he just get a blog...

Libor


3 Month staying the same, overnight going down.... Umn... I suspect there is more upside in the 3 month....
.O/N 2.62500 2.64125 .
1WK 2.83313 2.80250 .
2WK 2.85000 2.83125 .
1MO 2.89500 2.89750 .
2MO 2.90750 2.90750 .
3MO 2.92000 2.92000 .
4MO 2.95750 2.95000 .
5MO 2.99500 2.98000 .
6MO 3.03750 3.02125 .
7MO 3.04813 3.02750 .
8MO 3.06000 3.03313 .
9MO 3.07000 3.04000 .
10MO 3.07688 3.04563 .
11MO 3.08688 3.05375 .
12MO 3.09313 3.06000

Market bored

.... So either the market will go up and I'll do some selling, or we will go down and I'll do some buying......

This is how bored I am... I just clicked on a story about dancing with the Stars.....

Update

.... So.... a pull back on the spy to 136 roughtly a 50% retrace...

The xlf has already pulled off it's retrace.... but maybe it will have to pull back the whole range...

It would be bullish for the breakout if the xlf made a stand at the 50% retrace and pushed us up past 1400.....

Some talke about how great it would be if we can break beyond 1400... and other money comming in.. but I think it won't happen.... I still expect sort of an upward slow move Which will stall... and start the next(slow) leg down.

I'm just hoping for a False break out of the financials... Except all these stinky regionals that have yet to come clean..... Dumb asses.

Futures

How can the market be down 20 yesterday, and yet fair value be up 20 today....

I tell you The bull will be back, when the futures are less Insane.

Dreams

It is not true that people stop pursuing dreams because they grow old, they grow old because they stop pursuing dreams. Gabriel Garcia Marquez

Monday, April 21, 2008

fuck the market

Yep... good way to start the week... market gone no where.


I'm over it......

update


moving up on the SPY
In other news... I purchased some new green tea this weekend.... Looks like I'm going to have to go through it for stems and twigs.... No... I actually mean green tea....

Arch Coal.

aci- Arch Coal

Arch Coal Inc. (ACI, $61.60, $3.23, 5.53%) posted net income of $81.1 million, or 56 cents a share, driven by the skyrocketing price of coal amid strong growth in the company's central Appalachian and western bituminous operations. In addition, the coal producer raised its full-year earnings forecast. Revenue climbed 22% to $699.4 million. Analysts were expecting earnings of 46 cents a share on $687 million in revenue. . .

Did I say I can't believe I haven't found an entry point.

Well

I found my libor data source.... sure enough right under my nose.... my newsfeed gives me Libor when published at noon Eastern

DJ British Bankers Association Libor Rates. . GBP CAD JPY *SN EUR 365 USD .
--- --- --- ------- --- .O/N 5.08125 3.40667 0.55125 3.94149 2.64125 .1WK
5.12000 3.29167 0.58750 4.27227 2.80250 .2WK 5.25000 3.29500 0.61000 4.36797
2.83125 .1MO 5.49000 3.30333 0.67625 4.43830 2.89750 .2MO 5.73313 3.45000
0.79875 4.64615 2.90750 .3MO 5.88500 3.55000 0.91125 4.87111 2.92000 .4MO
5.88250 3.55167 0.93750 4.87427 2.95000 .5MO 5.87813 3.55667 0.95750 4.87871
2.98000 .6MO 5.87125 3.59333 0.98125 4.88251 3.02125 .7MO 5.86000 3.61583
1.00375 4.88441 3.02750 .8MO 5.85125 3.62333 1.02563 4.88441 3.03313 .9MO
5.84125 3.65833 1.04000 4.88885 3.04000 .10MO 5.83125 3.68917 1.06125 4.89012
3.04563 .11MO 5.82188 3.70167 1.07500 4.89139 3.05375 .12MO 5.80813 3.73000
1.09375 4.89265 3.06000 . .*SN=spot next . .Rates are effective two days hence.
.Source: BBA via Reuters .

No charts...

but a quick outlook.

The down is down 60 it's powerlunch time.... from the 4 seasons.....

This is a limbo position..... My charts say we start moving tward 1400+ but......

in the minds of the range bound... we are stuck and shoudl move back to the 1300 range..

We(or I) need the xlf to make more moves tward 27.... and to move into the 29-27 range....

Interesting idea would be if the Nasdaq gets us there.....

National City

National City bank, dilutes shareholders, reminds us that these are just stupid little pieces of paper.... That honestly mean nothing....

Drives Regional banks down........ Fuckers!!!

LIBOR


My understanding is that Libor is published midday in europe...

Last time I was activly tracking Libor, I found that monday was a wierd day.... and usually overnight went up before the weekend.....

I'll keep looking for better data source

Ben Franklin again.

"There are three things extremely hard: steel, a diamond, and to know one's self."

I must be tired, not that thrilled with this quote.... I'm half assing it.

Sunday, April 20, 2008

Day in the life

..... Next in my series on life of a Trading Hack, day-trading fool......

So, I try and get the maximum out of my weekends... Sort of trade in the Trading terminal for the life of Huck Fin... Shoeless in the garden, Weed in my teeth, napping by the Creek....

.... None the less it takes till about Saturday evening to decompress, and relax(I bet this would be easier if I drank more)... Then finally on Sunday.... I become a less....AGRO me.... But this weekend The wind has been ridiculous, and after spending some of yesterday in the yard... Getting Slapped around by the wind and more of the same today... only it's about 10 degrees colder...

I'm locked in a Vacancy.... Nothing to do, nowhere to go..... I did all my errands yesterday.... Only things I can think of to do are Clean, or Read, go see a movie.... none of this, has a good meditative quality to it..

Friday, April 18, 2008

decompression time

.... I'm absolutely wiped out, by the time Friday is here... I'm the Walking dead. I went to the bookstore... searching for some books about dow theory or about... gardening.

I walked home, I needed some exercise. On the way I ran into some Mormon missionaries.

I made no Eye contact, it was clear that I had no interest in them.

Them "Excuse me,"

Me, "Hey, I'm sorry I'm not interested, just keep moving down the road."

Them, "But....."

Me, "Listen, I don't know you... you have no right to even talk to me."

Them, "We were only trying to ...."

Me, " I know exactly what you were trying to do."

Them, "If there is anything we can do."

Me, "Yes, Get the hell moving down the road."

Nothing worse than the Spiritual version of a Used Car Salesmen, trying to convince me to believe in Unicorns.

Have I mentioned

I hate owning stock.......

Dumping bonds to buy stock.

Dumping bonds to buy commodities.

The dollar getting stronger.

the vix getting lower...

Everyone Bearish....

Wave counts


I believe this is still WAVE A.... Maybe it's done... maybe it has a bit more to move.....
We still should get our Wave B pull back, then wave C to the upside.
but it's possible I'm wrong.

I saw this

Jennifer
Cashin


Monday Nov 26, 2007

Funeral services will be held tomorrow in Jersey City, NJ for Jennifer
Cashin. Cashin died Thanksgiving Day after suffering a pulmonary embolism. Jen
Cashin was a producer for many years on The News with Brian Williams on
MSNBC.....


She is the daughter of Art Cashin who is a floor manager for UBS and is
often a guest on CNBC.




I was very sad to hear this, Tough thing to happen to somone I respect so much.....

I was cyber stalking Art and found it.

I saw this

Resistance


This is a Flag pattern in a down trend..... resolves down.....
But... When you are "Range bound" Many times what you do is count the number of times you test a specific resistance.... So, the upside we tested 3 times, and now the 4th.... After testing the top 4 times and the bottom Twice, it says we break out....THE MORE TIME RESISTENCE IS TESTED THE MORE CHANCE THERE IS WE BREAK IT.
We still could fail. It's all the short interest in the market, It just keeps providing upside to the market, all the bears are "All IN" and don't have money to put to work.

First On CNBC

I just heard a great argument on cnbc. Apparently the Recession that CNBC never saw coming, and was only indicated by Libor, and a Falling Dow, Was apparently caused by the media..... But fortunately the Recession that they didn't see, which was then created by the Media, never existed.

That is Just Messed up..... Do they know they speak in Verbal Drool?

Banks- Long Shallow

Theory is that banks are the first bull out of the bear.

This is a Super Cycle which does throw that playbook out.

Someone made the argument that the multiples in the financials hadn't bottomed since they are no where near the 90's level.....

Problem is, that was post the S&L crash... I bet people were scared that would spread to more of the banks.

I'm still trying to figure this out, trying to not get caught up in my own hype...I can't imagine that we will run past 1410-1420.... Umn

I'm super Bearish......

International stocks, materials, inflation.... those things can keep the market up.

It really is the stagflation trade...

If the dollar stops and doesn't move down anymore... that should leg down the commodities.

But.... overall I think this recession will be LONG and Shallow.

20pts on the SPX..... Good lord!!!!

Libor


Some of my numbers are off, I'm still working on a good libor source.

Harrold's Ocean.

"Hello, my name is Harrold Crick, and when I go through the files at work they remind me of a deep and endless ocean."

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Tired

Not enough napping today, Good trading day....

Umn.... It's been a long week, I can't look at another chart right now.

I was doing wave counts today... There is a possibility we have topped out... This is wave 5 of the up-move..... I saw slim signs that could have been distribution...

I'm just... well I just don't see today's pull back being "Wave B"... Feels more like the wave B pullback in the "Wave A" move.

I like the way all the financials were playing, Though it's "My Book", it is giving me hope that we will have the Nice "false Breakout" of the financials I've been hoping for.

I don't know if anyone is watching transports and First Recovery stocks... but some of them are ripping.. Or were ripping yesterday(Wed).

It's funny..... But this is Wave 5 of the Counter Trend, and.... Well The Dow is Sucking, But the S&P has some bounce. Umn......

If We rip 20-30 pts tomorrow, I'd say we are into a move to 1400.... I could be wrong about the "Drifting" action... maybe we will start selling off. heavily after this move......

It's wierd when one trend ends, and we move to another.

this Counter trend Rally... could just be Wave 1 of a larger upside move.... Which could mean a sell off.... then into a Wave 3 up-move.

Just weird, one trend ends... and it's like a new fresh day.... filled with possibilities.

Trying

I keep trying to post a chart.... and bloger hates me.

we should... or may be still in Wave A.....

Umn.....I know it's my book, but I'm smelling that breakout in financials.

Possible that wave B was this morning through afternoon...

I think we still have a pull back, and a move up.

these 25 pt days are very bullish, near term... it just shows healthy caution.

and we may need bear capitulation....

So... I was fucking around on "the Fly" 's site... it makes me very bullish that that guy is bearish...

Performing in a bad tape

Regional Banks in my screen.

RF +3.5% :)- on improved volume(it was a laggard yesterday
MTB+1.15 %
CBSH +0.26%
UB +.22%

Energy

NRG
URZ
CCJ
EXC
XOM

First Recovery

ICO +5.5%

(these had a great run yesterday)

My Uber Screen

CAT +.85%
DE +.05%
AAUK +.32

COnsumer Non cyclicla

VIFL +2%
TSN +1.8%
KR +1.2%

Utilities...

YORW
RRI
ENI
ETR

nap

I do my morning reading, have breakfast.... then take a premarket nap. it's getting rediculous.

Libor


I'm having a hard time finding today's libor.... could be because today's libor doesn't come out till the Euor markets close.

Initial Claims


I'll update when it comes out.

Time

You may delay, but time will not.
-- Benjamin Franklin


I have a chart of Initial claims.

wonder if the market can shake off initial claims and philly fed.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

hmmmm

I figured I'd blog.... I umn... spent the weekend creating a giant pile of horse shit... I should take a picture. In the process, I burned the shit out of my arms, and set off a wicked case of allergies. Finally tonight, I gave the swollen Lymph Nodes a break ... Really fucking swollen, and Sore. I took an antihistamine. These are the super antihistamine, that a pharmacist handed to me, Super strength OTC.... then he said... Just take more if you need. This was when a wasp nailed me 5 times on the hand.

Interesting isn't it.....

This cold has my greenhouse working overtime. The plants hate it.

Umn....

Great blogging dude.......

Enjoying the hell out of the New Black Keys....... Didn't know I liked the black keys this much....

So....

I messed around with Metastock... What a PIECE of Shit. I spent an hour trying to make it usefull.... then just gave up..... I'm fairly compadendt with software(this is an understatement), and it just was a POS...... "Wow" it builds a chart.......

summary

There are some charts in my head I'd like to share, but... It's been a crazy day. I like big days one way or another cause I just get to kick back and watch things.... assuming I'm betting the right direction.

This is it...... So we are in Wave A of this current uptrend..... In order for it to be larger than the last one and for it to be more likely to hit 1400+ it needs to end in the 1380's to have a shot at the 1400+ range.... short of that we may..... just top out at 1400............

We should get a nice Wave B pull back, then a slow move up.... Now.... The reason I keep talking about these slow captitulative moves... where we all fall asleep.... is that it's a fairly common thing..... what has to happen is over the next months we need to prove the bear by quarterly earnings..... then after 2 quarters of progressively crappy earnings we may get a nice equities washout....

but a nice slow inching up, after this wave B pull back will be interesting to see.

Suspicion

Suspicion is the companion of mean souls, and the bane of all good society.


-Thomas Paine



this feels like it needs to come back and find some support.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Found that green resistance did we.....But now we have the yellow and red trends....


not so much, selling into the close


not so much, selling into the close


not so much selling into the close



Wave 2 correction????



not the worst rally... as far as shape..... feeling a bit toppy.... but... One would think we could get a good run into the close.........

the volume is still poor, but that pattern wher we are trying to push the upper side of the trend channle.... that is bullish.

The Great BR is......Mr. Furly????

The Great Barry of The Big Picture made what I perceive as a reference to Threes Company.

"11:27am: Come and knock on my door: Dylan Trish & Melissa"

My question is, does that make him Mr. Furly... or Mr Roper?

Trish is hotter than Janet..... It's weird, I've warmed up to Crissy, on CNBC ...mostly, after I learned that she was on Little House.... I think it took the edge off

Also funny they talked about how bloggers have Entourages.

So I figured I'd throw him a link, like a good member of "His Crew."

I wonder if that mention on CNBC, was kind of a dig at barry, or maybe a Backhanded comment about his blog.

this does seem to be a compleated elliot wave.

Once again, lets see how it handles a wave 2 correction, some of these trends are kind of clueless


Regional and xlf.... decoupling from the indexes.

I have some wins on my regionals... I'm running some loosetrailing stops

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"