... I hate the market on friday night, I'm apt to just forget about it... and try and move on..
I read a blog today, and the mantra was "It's never different this time".... I haven't read that blog enough to know if they are serious......
This is a 30 year super cycle... and maybe a once in 100 year super cycle....there is a name for that.... But regardless, in my research... (realize the sampling of super cycles) is rather thin.. There for using scientific method on such a limited sample is tricky.. and the data is rough
What am I getting at.... Before this bear happened, I did enough research, with the tools I had at the time. to realize that this break out.... on the theme that "it's not different this time" is predictable... because it's not different this time.....
the difference will be that materials, and inflation will keep a bid in the market.... The money made on the short side in a bear market is .... Well it's always limited, in it's time frame.. you make money from 100% of the market, down 20%.... then the market comes back up 10%... Then Down another 20-30%.... Then the Bear market muddles in that range for the duration of the Bear market...... But another Recession will take us out of the Bear market....
Let me just Reiterate that I'm talking about a Secular Bear..... A bear market where the market goes nowhere for Years... and the worst years are after the "Crash" Cause the Year after the Crash, as the market recovers.... is profitable, if you purchased after the crash....
What I'm getting at, is that this Break-out attempt is 100% predictable... and on a Risk-management perspective... Why not take advantage of it.... Even if it is False, a break out of 5%.... is still 5%..... Now if you cash out after the 5%... the market just slowly rises after it.... and you don't miss anything, by cashing out... 1% Who gives a shit....
But, the que will be if the Materials Fail or not..... I predict a St udder step in the materials, since the Growth in commodities is increased by the Federal Reserve......
But if this Truly is a "Bear", Besides a short Stumble, there won't be much further weakness....
what is my prediction $850 in gold? Below that and maybe it won't be different this time.....
But like a good quarterback, I'll call those plays when we get there... This is the "Breakout" stage, Rotation from materials-financials.
true or not...... a Breakout will be a Breakout...
Friday, April 25, 2008
ugh post
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4 comments:
Your analysis seems accurate regarding the materials adding a bid to the market and a short term pop.
The Chinese have signaled that they will use fiscal policy to prop up stock prices-- so they obviously have learned something from all their Ivy League educations in MBA's.
http://tinyurl.com/6evk54
But "prop" is the operative word. The next leg down will be a duesy. I still cannot light at the end of the credit crisis. Jobs are going away and the dollar's downward trajectory is only taking a short hiatus.
This may signal a good buying opportunity for the Swiss Franc (FXF), but I would still wait on the precious metals since they will likely go down further. I just don't trust the dollar at this point.
What would happen to the US dollar if China decided to allow the Yuan to float freely-- what would happen immediately and what would happen in the intermediate and long term? (Not rhetorical questions.)
(BTW "tony" is the same person as "grodge")
I know tony..... I'm working on comments.. but it's the weekend and I don't care.
The jist of it is that a sudden decouple would be "Destabalizing" to every thing... which is why they are working on it slowly...
but I don't have a great handle on that, to be honest
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