Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

end of the world as we know it

Well, I just figured I'd post... with the armageddon of the new virus going on in 4 hours... I just figured I'd post....

I'll be sleeping in the bunker tonight, Get up and check out if the world has ended when I get up...

(see I love jokes like this)

Is it Bearish?

So, Tony asked if this sell off was bearish. I think he threw out a 50% fib retrace as evidence.

You can see the horizontal support at the 79.5, which I suspect is the rough 50% retrace. I expected more weakness today.. maybe even a sideways move, with an up bias. So what we got was Positive and bullish in my mind.
BUT... In blue we have the trend.... and we broke the trend. That is bearish.... But the rule of thumb is "It's what it does after it breaks the trend, that is important." this could turn into a bear trap below that trend.

we also could look at this as Wave 1 of an Elliot wave... and that the breaking of the trend is wave 2 consolidation. and we will get a wave 3 some time tomorrow.

Or....

That wave 3 of a down trend was yesterday,and that today was wave four of a consolidation with a spike low tomorrow.

SO that is the question... Is the blue trend Wave 4 of a downtrend, or wave one of a new uptrend?

fear to hold them

I see this as potential of much fear. and that negative sentiment could be a sign that we have higher to go.

Not so much complicated Target calculaton.

One would think that target calculation would be complicated. and yet... It's just easier to guestimate and use agressive rounding.
Base is 78. Up is at 79.50 = 1.5
1.5 to the top of the cup= 81

I can sit and argue how the top of the cup is 80 and that I add the depth of the cup to the 80 level.
78 to 80 = 2
2+ 80 =82.

Then I want to look for some game theory... and I back the target off.

Or I can actually look at the specific low and the specific high, and instead of doing them in rough rounding, or rounding down. then come up with a high of like 82.12... and miss it entirely..

This is how you get the purple crayons.

The dollar

So.... There of course is debate about the deficit vs the dollar.

The real risk is performing poor monetary policy, and making the economic contraction Longer than need be.

and the extended economic contraction doing more damage to the dollar than loose monetary policy.

Smart money policy is dollar bullish...

One is the dog... one is the Tail.

chart

senate hearing

there is a senate hearing about to start.

Lessons from the new deal(follow the link and you can watch it aparently. starts 2:30 eastern)

The witness on Panel I will be The Honorable Christina Romer, Chair, Council of Economic Advisors. The witnesses on Panel II will be: Dr. James K. Galbraith, Lloyd M. Bentsen Chair, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin; Dr. J. Bradford DeLong, Professor of Economics, University of California Berkeley; Dr. Allan M. Winkler, Professor of History, Miami (Ohio) University; and Dr. Lee E. Ohanian, Professor, University of California, Los Angeles.

volume


So we broke out of the trade channel, and we did it on volume... this "Hints" that the low from yesterday may hold.

Famous last words.

MCC

Debt Renegotiation is like the velvet painting of dogs playing poker.

Kudlow

Hell is freezing over.

As somebody just argued against the Kudlow Anti-intervention. That the buisnesses failed...

Kudlow just argued that "Government failed"

Well dear mr Kudlow.... I thought government needed to fail, and Rush is out hoping for government failure. I alwasy heard the more government failed the better for buisness.

Like I say It's crazy talk everywhere, as Larry Kudlow just argued that there was somehow a failure of government in this situation.

Unless we are back to the Bullshit CRA arguments.

target here is 81

umn... I'm a little suspect. That green line is significant overhead resistance.

There has to be a point with the blogs, where instead of being on the Leading edge of information flow for the markets, it becomes the Median news flow.

And for the most part where they are significantly behind the curve. Where they become the "News to sell"

I have a lot of bile for the car MFG, as the son of a union man. I umn... You know, there has to be a point where 2 Bloated guys in suits throwing out some lousy ideas about car MFG, becomes "The new Steve Jobs" of car MFG.

My 2 comments about Cars are these:

  • First, how long can you have an industry built around an Engion that was "State of the Art" in 1940.
  • Second, Look around notice there are only about 8 types of cars. the shapes are all roughly the same. I have no idea why there need to be so many brands and types.... But hell I'd buy a Black Model T.

Tony's costanza market

Let us just talk about the costanza market.... I guess that would be the Theme if we move sideways for a couple days. That, we think the market would go down this morning, and it will bounce. Then After bouncing we will think that it will keep bouncing, and it will go back down. Etc Etc... Using my EW... then a spike low say Thursday or Wed. Let us note that if you sold the market yesterday, you are now underwater.. But we arn't seeing upside panic buying/covering.

My only usefull thought at this point

Maximum headline risk.

So, we seem to again have building headline risk. Which we managed to get kicked in the nuts with yesterday. I'm trying to reflect on where that turning point is going to be. Seems like once earnings start coming out, if the expectations are too low, the risk is reduced once they start. We do have a point where citi will report, which is a good inflection point. Also... there are Options expiration.

Let me also note.. MSNBC is listening to the car guys talk about how they are going to sell cars... let me predict it's going to be a lame plan.

I'm still working on my thoughts about Obama and the Auto situation.

a look again at the trends


and of the xlf

Trend

We pushed outside the trendline... Right it's not about breaking the trend line, it's what happens after.
But there is nothing I like about the Elliot wave.... What it needs is about 2 days of sideways and a spike lower.

Just a note

For those of you who don't know there is a new virus out there, that has the boogyman running through everyone.

something about how the world is going to end on the first of april.

There are stinger tools and malwarebytes malware remover to check your system.

If we are lucky the world will end and we can all get some regular sleep.

so...

Right so some mornings If I'm annoyed with cnbc. I watch West Wing. The worst part is all the other shows Bravo has on, It's ridiculous. There is this great show West Wing. Then I have to hear all these adds for Worlds greatest super model, or who can be more shallow in NYC or Atlanta(real housewives of)

Of course there was the angle of death saying "I'll call a bottom in the market when the data changes and I can see a bottom in the economy"

so which comes first the bottom in the market or the economic indicators?

Again, Cautious about the B word.

OMG

WTF is going on that Ariana Huffington is on my TV, telling us how we need to run the economy? And feeling like she can speak authoritatively on what we need to do.

I'm a fan... BUT SUDDENLY ITS THE FUCKING POLITICAL BLOGS THAT NOW HAVE THE WISDOM OF SALOMON ON WHAT 'WE NEED TO DO' .

do you have any idea what a bunch of lemming like trolls these people are.... and that ... it's certainly not the Early Adopters over there...

fastmoney

market in no mans land.

This is a sentiment read.

Guy Adami said 800 was the bogey in today's session. "When the market traded through 800, it was the key to get out. I know it's hard to sell on days like today, but it was the right move," he said.

Monday, March 30, 2009

Well I thought we had a booring day

Didn't seem as though sentiment was negative enough. but I also didn't think sentiment was positive enough last thursday.

We may have to watch, and see if the sentiment in this phase is more muted.

Pat Buchanan is throwing a tirade about how "the automakers are too big to fail".

I think the republicans are shitting in their underwear..... maybe this brinkmanship is going too far. I wonder if obama is trying to get congress to override him. Get the republicans to join with the democrats, to help the Automakers...

but I'm just thinking.

No CEO is a victim

Some of the crap on CNBC is just unbelievable.

First on CNBC

Capitalism works better when regulated? What kind of commie socialist stuff do they have going on today? Defiantly the end of the world as we know it when we hear that argument coming on squawk on cnbc.

Robert shiller breaks into blather

"in america we had soup lines in the 30's so it wasn't that bad, nobody starved"

"we lead in financial intervention and technology and they should be able to take care of problems like this. And we need to encourage it?"

Well Professor... why hasn't it? What is wrong with our system that it has broken down so badly. You have to admit there is a problem before you can deal with it. The economy is still in so much denial. Somehow it thinks that all of this is how it should be.

There is this huge disconnect between what is going on, and how people are seeing things.

I made a comment somewhere about how sick of this economic bullshit that most of america is.

You can just feel it... people have just had it with what has been going on. And they would turn to communism to make it stop.

George bush talked about how exciting it is for people to move from one industry to another in their lives. Ya... I'm sure it's great to move from one industry to another every 8 years as we move from one bust to another. One of the principles of industrialization is labor specialization... Isn't it possible that we have lost one of the efficiencies of industrialization.

Dollar and the IMF

WASHINGTON — Barely six months ago, the International Monetary Fund emerged from years of declining relevance, hurriedly cobbling together emergency loans for countries from Iceland to Pakistan, as the first wave of the financial crisis hit.

Japan and the European Union have each pledged $100 billion; the United States has signaled it will contribute a similar sum, though its money will take longer to arrive because of the need for Congressional approval. China, with its mammoth foreign exchange reserves, is the next obvious donor.

Yet officials of China and other developing countries have served notice that they are reluctant to make comparable pledges without getting a greater say in the operations of the fund, which is run by a Frenchman, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, and is heavily influenced by the United States and Western Europe.

A senior Chinese leader, Wang Qishan, said Friday that Beijing was willing to kick in some money, but he called for an overhaul of the way the fund is governed. China wants its quota — which determines its financial contribution and voting power — adjusted to reflect its economic weight better.


Well I vote that india and the chinese totally take over the IMF...... what is with these guys?

The euro/dollar is back to 1.31

futures are grim

Fun Fun Fun

Sunday, March 29, 2009

I was reading a chart about diversification.

they were comparing Asset classes...

European index vs emerging index vs small caps vs value...

Wait... are european stocks and small caps different asset classes?

or are stocks just one asset class.

The Geitner plan

I was listening to Gregory on Meet the press.

Using a generic Bond rate from 2006

  • 3% CDO at $10,000= $300
  • 5K from Treasury, 5K from Pico.
  • Levered up 6X= $1800
  • $10000 investment returns $1800 per year=18% ROI(of course you can just multiply the interest times the leverage.
Even if the bond only performs for only 5 years you break even.

Sunday morning

The Sunday morning shows are going to start soon.

You ask? What have you learned this weekend Eric?

  • Vladimir Keilis-Borok is using Chaos theory to forecast earthquakes.
  • Friedemann Freund has found that when rocks are under stress from the tension preceding an earthquake the rock generates energy, that can be detected.
  • ALEXANDER FRASER TYTLER- There was some 'Freeper' who drew out that old quote that democracy only lasts until the people vote themselves the treasury. Which is also a quote used by Reagan. Of course tytler is a barely published author who's works I can bairly dig up. It's also fiarly debatable if he even wrote it. Seems dubious as a reference, and even the conclusions drawn are suspect.
G20- Message to the world- Capitalism isn't working. The rich get the benefits when things are booming the poor get the consequences when it's not.

Tops

What still makes me ... cautious about a correction at this point. Is the widely held opinion that

  • That thursday was the top.
  • that it was time for a pullback and that this was it.
I just want to remind us that, on the bottom days, Nobody was calling bottom(ok Kass said "this week") and that even the following monday and tuesday, there was disbelief.

I'm just saying TOO Much top calling makes me suspicious.

Saturday, March 28, 2009

saturday

I was just checking out this program about economics.

It had one of the "talking heads", and I mean one of the ones that is not given daily cash by cnbc. The funny thing was, I remember 6 months ago arguing with him about lemon socialisum. And on the program he started talking about the same thing. How we are caught in this hypocrisy of FreeMarkets and TooBig to Fail.

I just think the fallacy is to argue one side and the other. That is the Catch 22, that most people are caught up in. Either we are "free Market" and we can let the banks fail, and the currency and the whole damn system can fall into chaos or you are not. It's the talking out both sides of your mouth... Like "Oh! I just changed my mind". Then on the way back up you are all "oh!!! I'm for free markets"

Friday, March 27, 2009

No chart just a ramble

everybody was "taking profits" today. It was like it was obvious to everybody that there would be a decline.

Hmmm... Well if everyone is doing it. I'm trying to game it out in my head... There is still a good chance of some upside. I Didn't get a euphoric feeling on thursday, Looking at the chart it does look like a top... We have talked about the 840-850 target and how hard it would be to get there.

Wouldn't it be euphoric to push up 300 some odd points on monday?

It's always death to look for that "top tick".... But they are thoughts and I have them.

I also think that kind of move would suck in all the Profit takers from today... then they can panic out for a few days.

Now, hopefully I'll throw out some charts, but many of the banks have formed pennants, and we should get some kind of upside breakout... I'm not saying it will hold as a breakout. but it could be tradable. and even a new upmove out of the semi's.. at the same time.

my summary

before the close

This is the first day I've seen solid attempts at distribution... or what I perceive as distribution.

It makes me cautious.

I very much suspect that we should get some end of quarter buying for portfolio re balancing.

but to get to 840-850.. I just think it will take 2 days... I guess we could have a 300 pt day...

well

there is like a 10 pt gap between bid and ask... it's just kind of crazy

not sure why I posted this chart

My question at this point is how with 2 trading days left in the quarter are we going to get to 840-850 spx... I guess it's only 20-30 pts away.

You know if you are a bank, and you sell a performing loan for another loan... and the idea of buying a consumer loan.... I'm just saying it's fucked up.

So, here I sit watching cnbc and 3 versions of cspan. I saw a very smart woman talking on international affairs. which reminded me of an old GF who is now teaching at PIT.

news flow

See if we can get this stupid trade on news flow thing over.

Higher high higher low

we still will need to see this on say a 5 or 10 minute chart.

the market could be waiting for some news out of the White house... not that I believe in trade teh news.

SO morning observation

the banks are handeling fine, about how I expected... but her is the spy, and Well.. I think with the gap down it put the bears on the attack. One can suggest that they seem to have the advantage, and this chart looks like distribution on this pull back ..

but we could have just started some sense of accumulation. but the continued weaknesss is surprising me...

Did I write this?

You know... it's tragic in our economy when guys getting a 3/4 million dollar bonus from AIG and warren Buffet say

"Things aren't Fair"

I mean... when millionaires and billionaires can't get a fair shake in our economy .... what are things coming to... what is the hope for the "Lesser Folk"

;)

morning part 2

So dollar into the 1.33 touching the 1.32 range... good to see.

the weakness is impressive. I'm surprised them this weak...

intraday game

We have been talking about intraday game theory.

Last we talked, after getting burned in the morning, traders were waiting for the end of day weakness to buy. Which then morphed the market into Morning weakness and late day stregnth.

So now we have morning weakness... so, it's probable that we will see a move up through 11am..

It's hard to guess, if I was looking to accumulate stock... I think looking for weakness is the game. But as a "larger fund" this morning you may be afraid to wait and buy stock higher later in the day, as happened yesterday.

My best suspicion is mid day weakness.

bankers go to washington

well, the banks are off to Washington today. Sure is a lot of righteous indignation by the banks today.

Strange from some guys who have Billions in backstops and cash from the taxpayer.

I guess now that some of them don't need the taxpayer, they can get all Uppity. Isn't that the way? "damn welfare, it's a moral hazard!!!" all the way until they need it to keep their kids fed.

I guess we should just thank them for holding our money, and for being so gracious to loan some of it back to us from time to time.

They are gods among us mere mortals, I guess.

Morning

Well Futures are down, of course since we ended on the highs that is normal.

gold is at 926 and the euro/dollar 1.341... I like to see that. I know I was more surprised to see residual stregnth in gold, I'm not a gold fan, and we could see some of the gold holders try to keep a bid in it through the quarter end.

I'm keeping to my Non Call, I was surprised continued stregnth in gold. I want it to break down Mostly so the Armageddon guys can take one up the ass.

after a big up day (ya 200pts is nominal as an up day, relative to most these days.) it would be normal for us to move sideways, that would then give us a chance to move up on monday.. that would be normal, and then the March 31 open could look good on everyone's books.

This is where I get Wonkish, There is still a tenancy for us to get some sell off before the 31st, I just think that people will be nervous about holding them, and the preasure may be too much. So we may get a high before the 31st. Monday morning or so..

maybe be deviate from our standard pattern, I'm just ready for many things over then next 2 sessions.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

this was stupid

http://stockpreacher.com/stock-market-capitulation/

A key factor is preventing huge selling of shares and augurs for an equities rebound is the piecemeal nature of attempts to rescue banks and the economy, according to , Sitaraman Shankar. “We need to see an index falling 7 or 8 percent intraday in high volumes and then ending up nearly flat on the day as the buyers come back in,” said Philippe Gijsels, strategist at Fortis in Brussels. “What we’re getting instead is Chinese water torture, and no massive cleanout.
Wrong part of the sentiment cycle Brainiac....

Quick Thoughts

We have a pullback coming.
pre earnings
pre NFP
Post quarter

There will probably be some game theory on timing it..

It's tough with Quarter end and NFP being so close together.

I would doubt the peak will be on the first..
But a little boost into the weekend, get the weekend warrior crowd to pick them up on Monday trade....

not enought coffee in the world

to keep me from my post market nap.

Seems like the spring has sprung from the banks...

famous last words, they may pop tomorrow.

I am seeing some consolidation patterns...(that is not to suggest accumulation)

Clijsters to make tennis comeback

The Belgian, who quit tennis in May 2007 to get married and start a family, said she intends to make her professional comeback in early August.


I don't give her 6 months.... I'll suspect 3-4

is it strange?

That I find it interesting that Geithner speaks in partial sentences. Sometimes even uses one word or two to represent a sentence.

But, I also notice if he talks in a rapid pace he doesn't do it. I also think if he could speak just a little faster his ideas would come across a little clearer

So... here we are

Two days of the SPY. and then some.
ok.... let us pretend I work at a hedge fund, or some other financial firm. but I'm looking to buy stock. Obviously I want to buy it at the best time. After Tuesdays late weakness, I realize that we are getting some late day weakness. And that my desire to buy in the morning has been a mistake. So yesterday I wanted to wait until later in the day. and held back on my purchases to buy later into the weakness.

After yesterday's massive weakness. I then realize I defiantly don't want to buy in the morning..

My point is that as the mice move from buying early to later, the weakness should progress to earlier in the day. and we should see more strength later in the day..

which is why Morning weakness does not surprise me.... but what will surprise them is the lack of weakness later in the day..

Oh... thank god for Congress... I'd be tragically bored if not for some hearings. Especially when we seem to want to have AIG day 2 today.

I'm in hell

Dickhead Armey is on Cspan 3.

I don't know where I read it ... but the republican budget, run by the random Ronnald reagan lookalike.

- Lowering the top marginal tax rate to 25 percent

- Lowering the corporate tax rate to 25 percent

- Completely eliminating the capital gains tax



etc etc..

I wonder how long the braintrust took to come up with that.

EU... run by a madman

Speaking in the European Parliament, a mentally unbalanced Topalanek accuses Obama of going down the road to hell.

He said the attempt to borrow trillions would pave the road to hell. (While conservative economists inside and outside the US may agree with that view, it is nevertheless a different matter for the acting president of the EU to make such a statement, as one would expect it to reflect official EU position, which it is not.)

I've been liking this to how FUCKING CRAZY all the republicans and market participants are... It's one thing to be contrarian in a market view... but the market view isn't contrarian to the market, it's just contrarian to economists, who arn't market participants... so where is the Crowded trade?

Let us also chalk some of this up to primafacia understanding of economics.... "spending money is bad"(breath through mouth heavily).

today

05:00 Lockhart (FOMC voter)
08:30 GDP Revision (-6.7%)
08:30 Jobless claims
09:25 Lacker (FOMC voter)
10:00 Geithner: on regulation
11:00 KC Fed index
12:00 Fisher: on economic crisis
12:30 Lacker: on the economic outlook
13:00 7-yr note auction
13:00 Stern (FOMC non-voter)
13:00 7-yr note auction) 6:00 AM

You're going to hate this post

... For those who don't know it, I don't sleep well. The pot or 2 of coffee I drink every day doesn't help. as the market caught a bid yesterday as I expected, I took a long nap. Only having had half a pot of coffee yesterday. after a nap, closing my book. Then I took a long walk had dinner and went to bed. But I completely crashed at like 8pm.
What a Classic chart pattern... nice basing move, followed by a very nice aversion phase. CLASSIC. Nice 400 pt range yesterday... If I didn't know better One could have suggested this was a Topping pattern. But since we haven't seen a nice consolidation/accumulation In a million years... hard to recognize it.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

some metrics

Gold slightly down or flat... it loves that 930 level.

Dollar ... well messing with the 1.36 level.

Treasuries sold. oil sold...
roughly 4 of tracked asset classes sold.

Let me continue to comment on the high level of emotion/ and lack of .... Lucidity by many participants at this point.

We would like this to get better... and my position that " the guys at AIG deserve to get paid something" and that some of the bile is misplaced and would be better in other directions. But my shift to a more moderate position is Lucidity positive for the market.

Of course I still stick with the idea that Obama used it to start the dialog on Compensation.

This will go well!

John Carney stopped by, as I showed my unease at being so emotional at my dislike at the ... typing Chimp like typing over at cluster stock. He suggested I could put my energy into "debate". My comment was that Clusterstock's status as repeating Garbage Market MEME's and Trippe 'B' Status(I think I can leave Junk status to 'fly on wallstreet) as "Blog of Record" among the market Lemmings.... I'm just not sure that is debatable.

and I'm being punished by being on his RSS feed(I do concede, that is punishment).

Of course the stupidity of me waisting time on this, and my desire to avoid the Heisenburg principle.

But we know what a Jackass I am.... so, I'll try and keep us lightly posted on when I decide to Escalate my favorite hobby... TROLLING!!

Maybe it's time to start a new list for the blog "My favorite Lemmings"

Gold

Well, I have to admit... that gold is more interesting as a chart than I expected...

Obviously I refuse to play that right now.... but ... I'm just conceding it is interesting.

Repeat

this is an attempt at a repeat of yesterdays pattern...
Do you think I'm the only one who noticed it?
You think I'm the only one 'Theoretically anticipating it"(I say this because I anticipate it will be different)

More hokum

Santelli presented the idea that somehow the fight in congress over the budget is what has caused the rally...

I continue to monitor how much massive Crazy bullshit is going on... Not only by others but by myself as well... Crazy Vibes going on in the universe.

I keep swearing I'm going to post some of the Chess Chat room chats...

Problem is you don't know how many of them are credible.

More AIG

So the letter was posted.... the AIG one in the times.

I do suspect some kind of PR stunt.

I'd love to get better clarity... I wish the pink lady's were bothering AIG than Geitner.

My biggest complaint is the lack of a sense of "shared sacrifice". I think that isn't talked about enough yet. I also think that the administration is using this to open up a dialogue on compensation.

Right.. I trade... now I trade my money... but I can see why traders get paid... I've never understood salesman. I've never understood how a salesman can get paid more than the guy who makes a product. And yet, sales is hard.

MY issue is... Pay for non-performance. You have some CEO who had no idea a recession was coming, exposed to the 10 year or 30 year flood, with no eye on the 100 year or 1000 year. Who basically goes golfing every day. the guy who just runs a company into the ground. walks away with half a billion in compensation. Dilutes shareholders....

That is not capitalism and Certainly people if asked to do a job for a company deserve to get paid. but if a line worker at GM doesn't build cars for a week. Or if he in order to get a performance bonus and Destroys all the equipment on the line trying to get a bonus for setting a 1 week production record..... This just isn't capitalism.

I'm excited for that conversation, and yet... my bet is we will never have it. cause congress is consumed with the national debt.

and I'm listening to Joshua tree today

6-9

It's ridiculous how much time I read and watch news...

feels slow today.... I guess that is because nothing good is on c-span.

I'm trying to fight off a nap....

Michele bachman armed and dangerous

be warned this is from the weekly world news.... It is the world's only reliable news.
bachmann_armed_dangerous

“I want people in Minnesota armed and dangerous on this issue of the energy tax because we need to fight back. Thomas Jefferson told us ‘having a revolution every now and then is a good thing,’ and the people — we the people — are going to have to fight back hard if we’re not going to lose our country. And I think this has the potential of changing the dynamic of freedom forever in the United States.”

Oh!!! No

DR doom gets optimistic.

Nouriel Roubini, a/k/a “Dr. Doom,” is giving the Obama administration’s new plan to buy toxic assets the thumbs up.

“My take is generally positive, with a couple of caveats,” Mr. Roubini told DealBook about the new plan. He said he liked that the government was finally stepping up to clear the toxic assets off the bank’s balance sheet and that private capital would come in to make a market for it.

It wasn’t all positive: Mr. Roubini said he did not like that banks have the option not to sell an asset after the auction concludes, as this would create confusion and frustration on the part of the buyers. He also believes the government should use its leverage over the banks to force them to participate, whether they want to or not.

the jig is up

seems like the sellers now realize the buyers are there we should go back to resistance over the next hour retrace a little... maybe through lunch and then push through...

or it will happen faster.... Traders after yesterday's fiasco will be unlikely

and the market went up as a rocket after this and I forgot to post this

just a recap...

well morning trading looks on the buy side... volume not strong... I think the buyers are cautious and waiting for it to come to them....

Tony and I talk about the market a lot so I try and make sure I recap for the blog...

Though this isn't a strict pattern as I see it... I still throw in a near term target of 84 on the spy.. which is 20pts higher on the spx...

200 pt day in the market... been there done that in the past weeks.

who knew candy was counter cyclical

of course ... one would think...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/24/nyregion/24candy.html?_r=2

Futures

I commented over an hour ago when futures were flat to +1 that it's that move that indicates morning potential...

so prediction is we move up at the bell and probably hold it to the 11am inflection point.

the hanes bottom

was the hains bottom called on the day?

or was it days later?

that is my issue.

as I'm reflecting...

The BAnk of america and Citi purchase of MBS on the open market seems important..

and what a lotto if they can pick them up at .30 on the dollar then sell them off into the new program at a profit.....

end of the month

so... seems like everybody's eye is on the end of the month..

a little game theory may be in store... and moving out of a few things before the last day.... could be a good idea.

Frontline

last night was about the national debt...

and how misunderstood it is... and it's history since 1980

word is...

So goldman is giving back the tarp money.... Good... they wern't going to loan any money to anyone retail anyways. We should probably also take it away from MS and whoever else is a former Ibank anyways.

but Ken Lewis is out this morning... saying "he is going to START paying back the tarp" Squawk doesn't understand how this is possible.... well joe it's not that they are going to pay it back... they are just going to start.

this is an interesting story

citi and boa buying mbs on the market.

Krugman shark jump?

here I am asking if Krugman can shark jump... like I'm just being didactic ... and I realy don't know....

Krugman: Geithner Plan Certain to Fail BTW this is off a bloomberg video. I think I saw it on CR.

I "LIKE TO THINK"(right that is a miss-tell) that he just wants to be right, that we have to nationalize... As I listened to him... I want to think he is going to shark jump here..

I think it's a plan... and we will see how it works... and if it doesn't work... you come up with a new plan.

OH!!! but the real point is to bring up the paul krugman song!!

Morning again

So... futures were up 3 most of the night then have moved back to flat. For those who know me... It's about 7:30 am and I believe there is a bias for whatever momentum happens about now through the open to be the same momentum in the market. into the open.let us point out... WTF is "us".... me and the fucking mouse in my pocket?... what a lousy ascending this is... It's interesting.... I'm fascinated by this pattern.... I'd like to see us open at the morning low from yesterday.... let us also note Joe has a new haircut..... in other buisness... it's bill pay day for me. 25th of every month..

Some other stats gold at 920, dollar at 1.348.

last night I hear there is a new article in rolling stone about populist outrage about too big to fail.

07:00 MBA mortgage applications
08:30 Durable goods (expected to drop 1.2%; orders are down 24% since July)
10:00 New home sales (expected to rise nearly 5%; down -78% since summer of 2005)
12:20 Pianalto: on economic recovery
13:00 5-yr note auction
13:00 Yellen: on the economy

Tomorrow is the employment number..

Mar 26
08:30 Jobless Claims
08:30 GDP (rev)
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Stocks
11:00 KC Fed Mfg Survey

Mar 27
08:30 Net Change in Strikers
08:30 Personal Income & Spending
09:55 Consumer Sentiment (final)
10:00 State Unemployment

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Brad Sherman.


this guy just kills me.... I can't even start....

Bailout Buckets

I just got a coupon from KFC, they are offering a "Bailout Bucket" how is that for sentiment

Mojo Recap on the day

Nice Sell off.... Kind of scary in fact.

Market ends when you won't let them go. and that wasn't today.... I say day traders just couldn't hold them.

I would suggest that the top is lower than 900spx

many days from now till end of the month.

There does seem to be some kind of Pivot setting up at the 840 level... I'm not saying a top but... seems like in my minds eye there is a swing high there.

but not to be a broken record but ascending triangle on the recent highs..... tested twice 3rd time is the charm.

as I noted with Paul kedrosky, and upside trader... we are getting more nervous bulls.... I guess that is what you get in a wall of worry. not that paul is a bull.... just nervous.

some comments from the void.

Paul Kedrosky.... Suspects maybe the Second derivative has changed. Comments, "things aren't all sunshine" but may not be "Armageddon"....

of course the story is "has the econoblogosphere decoupled".... when was it coupled? besides being the chirpings of the Lemmings
LOL.... Well does a Market bottom at sunshine? or when the tunnel is darkest... Suddenly you see the light... but at that point... it's too late.

Barry, who I won't link because he will stalk me.... Well First, his only bottom call was "maybe there is a bear market bounce soon." is still bearish BTW.... Let me just say that... well he missed the bottom in November too. and last I checked was unnaturally confused... But let me remark since he moved to the new format, I have a hard time spending time wading through the Cafe of opinions over there. I still have a thesis that they fired the old technician or he quit.

Paul Hickey states the obvious

"as the market goes up, we are less and less comfortable with the Level."

Clusterstock

I have this very unsettling hate for Cluster stock and henry blodget.

I'm unsettled by the hate.... not that it's a hate of unsettling proportion.

Tragedy of the commons

Tragedy of the commons.

there is a copy here.

Proxy for Wells Fargo

I got a proxy for WFC today...

it took me 15 minutes and quite a bit of searching to figure out what I was voting on.

It was very clear that in the documents they were trying to hide the voting information.. Obfuscate clear transparency on shareholder voting issues.

That is good enough reason to clear the board.

Missinformed Vs. Uninformed

I'm trying to figure out if these hearings are More or less painful than the ones in September. I think that is because before they were Un-informed... and now they are Mis-informed.

larry sumers on pbs news hour

There is an interview with Larry Summers on the news hour..

I haven't seen it.

The dark Cabal

I have limited tolerance for Cabal's.... but they do amuse me..(not to say some don't exist) I generally disagree with them as patently absurd, since there is a tenancy to jump to ridiculous assumptions.

But this is a good one...Meaning; one I enjoy.

Summary is some kind of JPMorgan(the man)type cabal to overvalue the bank assets and return confidence to the system....(What a horror show that would be, to return confidence to the financial system).... Unless of course you seek Armageddon...

I understand the desire for Armageddon when you are short... but... I just think some of the Babies should be able to eat? and ... you know we are a civilized country... can we not have Roof mounted machine guns?

The continued horror show of the "Free-marketeers" to lift up the Kimono on our economy and be confronted by the economic system hypocrisy, and very real tenancy toward Lemon socialisum.

LOL

congresswoman "you have an assurance that AIG will pay back the loan."

Uncle ben" umn... we have a super senior Lean on all of AIG's assets"

congresswoman "and you have a paper that says they will repay the loan".

Uncle ben " yes, there is documentation."

Lesson for G20 from 1933 London summit

this is a good story... I"m not going to provide a summary, it's a parallel between 1933 and the g20 summit

Coca-Cola Drought

Story

...
The East Africa Bottling Share Company, which produces the soft drink in the region, last week temporarily shut its bottling operation in Ethiopia.

It said they had the Coca-Cola - but did not have the bottle tops.

...
Our correspondent says it sounds almost as if the Coca-Cola shortage is being treated as a national emergency.
...
Street children have reportedly been collecting the much-needed bottle tops from the streets of Addis Ababa and selling them back to companies to recycle for around $0.2 (£0.13) a kilogram.
...
The continent has been largely spared the worst of the global banking crisis, but it is becoming obvious there are problems finding enough foreign exchange to keep Ethiopia's economy running, says our correspondent.

What a crappy story..... Why are they out of bottle caps!! and how does foreign exchange work into the "Cap issue"

not so ascending

I just want to note... this isn't exactly all that ascending triangle... Just wanted to point that out.

paul krugman

on the hot seat since his prediction that they would nationalize... not so much coming true.

not sure if I covered this

who knows if I'll do a chart... but the target I worked out is 84.50... but you know game theory and it could fall shorter than that mark......

going to have to play it day to day... BUT

It would not suprise me to have this last up untill April 1

Monday, March 23, 2009

Nut Tickler is bearish

I umn... usual mode is to fade mackie... but nut tickler... Nigerian.. is bearish

summary

Just trying to provide a summary...

We have been talking about the upside crash.... and we had buying all asset classes
Today all but 3... I'm not quite sure how we quantify buying with treasuries.. By my definition it's value going up. Long bonds 10s and 7s... and gold breaking down.

Gold going down in context of continued selling of the Dollar.
This is a divergence in assets that should have a correlation... it will resolve one way or another...

FUCKING 470 on the dow now.........

On the XLF... we may get my ascending... as it's working on it's resistance at the Thursday high...

GYOFB

I’m still surprised we are avoiding that one.

The “we are in too much debt to china” MEME may be building… then one can jump to Cold War paranoia. That meme seems available to both parties.


It’s interesting how much we rely on “Catch Phrases”

Like “print money” “toxic Asset”..

and the "unwashed masses"(how elitist to say that), seem to rely on those phrases, as opposed to develop anything more than a prima facia understanding of events.( I always like to agree with Jon Stuart on this, as he has defended that the reason people don't pay attention, is because they are busy "mowing their lawns", or other metaphors for trying to live their lives.)... People just want to sound smart like Nouriel Roubini...



Then as MEMEs they develop lives of their own.

370 on the DOW

so.... this is like 800 pts pre september....

NOW THAT WOULD BE DRAMATIC.... and yet.... I hear the Heads "this is a trading rally.... bla bla bla

still

this is the actual thursday high... We could still get a retrace and a larger Ascending triangle on this resistnace... but the "Little minds" keep talking about the 800 level...

Wall of worry....

I pointed out how Pessimistic the market was about the Geitner plan.

Much of my point was to Hypotisise about a new inverse relationship in the market....

where Pre the March low, we traded up into hope.

now we trade down into worry...

and the potential for this new relationship with the news, may indicate that we are "over the Hump".... Or "past the Trough"....

Dollar and gold

Well... gold is managing that 950-930 range...

the dollar hit the 1.36 level earlier and is backing off.

fox buisness

Hey... I have fox buisness now.....

Wow!!! they are even dumber than power lunch!!!!!

sue herrera

Seems like she wants to buy gold!!!

one of my comments this morning

Congress and the American people are just trying to preserve capitalism. Seems like wall street has destroyed it creating all this Croni-capitalism, and lemon-capitalism.

Howard dean said it this morning… Paying for failure is not capitalism

Last we checked

.... the debate this weekend is if the negative sentiment was a buy signal....

We are looking for? some form of a gap fade... One could try and fade the gap... but then I will be more than curious if we start a new upleg.

Good morning

Gov. Howard Dean points out this morning....

  • It's the House's job to be crazy... and for the senate, president, and judicial system to keep the reins on.
  • ALSO "IT'S NOT CAPITALISM TO PAY PEOPLE FOR FAILURE."... what? WALLSTREET not capitalism!!!!! you don't say.... maybe crony capitalism, and Lemon capitalism.
Over the weekend there was plenty of populist outrage... a very lousy story in Rolling stone... Almost as unreasonable as CNBC... Let us just point out that as Dean pointed out that "PAYING FOR FAILURE IS NOT CAPITALISM"... and of course that isn't anything you hear on CNBC... as much as they defend capitalism.... where is CNBC on that issue?

Sunday, March 22, 2009

market wierdness

after over a year of Optimism about every plan on the books... The geitner plan on troubled assets is universally panned before it's even seen....

Populist outrage

... I've been working on some good populist outrage all weekend.

Saturday morning I heard some guy arguing that "Why should one guy at AIG be punished for something that another guy at AIG did?"

Of course why should the entire country be punished for something AIG did?...
and Yet we are being punished. We as Americans have to just nut up and take it.

The Phrase that keeps going through my head is "Shared Responsibility" And "Shared Sacrifice".... and my issue is ... as I read about the banks... and they say "we are trying to rebuild this institution and pay off the taxpayer as best we can."

So I ask.... Who has a sense of Shared sacrifice/responsibility.

Congress... Except the republicans, have been risking their career trying to convince the people that helping the banks is a good idea.... Are the banks helping? Are the banks out with newspaper adverts saying... "We are behind america 100%" or.... anything.

When I see Jami Dimon, of JPmorgan... I see a guy who when he is talking to the public... I feel like he is talking to investors in his bank.

When I see Vicram pandit of CitiGroup, or the other Cheese heads... I see guys who are treating me like the sucker who purchased his stock.... Like I'm just some asshole to get diluted by overpaid management, and too many stock options.

I don't see companies trying to tighten their belt to get through this with us....

So... when a bunch of guys who, didn't or havn't even thanked the taxpayer for helping them out..... I feel like they are my ungratfull sister... just looking for a handout.

I mean if they really are just "SinkHoles".... Why not take away all the bonus pools. They can be paid in options at the strike price that is the stock is at when they pay off the bailout money. I'm not sure you get a bonus to be a sink hole.

Bill moyers with jon stewart

I just saw this... It's a good interview too.

Bill Moyers with Mike Davis

I'm not advocating any position,

but this interview was interesting.

BILL MOYERS: Many film scholars believe the movie is a paranoid parable, warning of a Communist takeover of America. But today, the body snatchers are you ready for this? Socialists! That's right. Socialists, reportedly swarming over the city and making off with the means of production, namely the Federal budget.

I'm not making this up. Newsweek was the first to spot the aliens a month ago and it was us. Here's the headline of a recent article on Salon.com. Newt Gingrich, reincarnated once again as himself, sounds as if Obama ate his Contract with America for lunch and coughed it up as "European Socialism."

........

BILL MOYERS: So what does a real live Socialist think about all this? We consulted the Endangered Species Act and actually found one, way out to the People's Republic of Southern California. That state's economy has tanked with one of the country's highest number foreclosures and unemployment above 10% and climbing. California is a financial earthquake off the Richter scale.

All of this is grist for the socialist writer and historian who is sitting with me now. Once a meat cutter and a long haul truck driver, nowadays, Mike Davis teaches creative writing at the University of California, Riverside. This recipient of a MacArthur Foundation "genius grant" has written so many books we can barely get them on the screen for you. Two of his histories of Los Angeles and Southern California, CITY OF QUARTZ and ECOLOGY OF FEAR were best-sellers. His latest: IN PRAISE OF BARBARIANS: ESSAYS AGAINST EMPIRE.

Mike Davis, welcome to the JOURNAL.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Chris Dodd Faces the Gallows

You want an idea...

The Amendment came from somewhere, and dodd put it in, Who gave it to him:

  • Geitner or the Fed or the working group on Financial... bla bla handed it to him.
  • OR... a banking Lobbyist put it in.
But it's been Dodd who was caught lying about it...

As much a fan of Special interest as Obama is..... I saw this story, and noticed that it seemed like the banks were turning to lobbying congress to come up with a solution.

So who is it they are turning to? Chris Dodd? ...

Dodd now says it was the whitehouse.

Treasury made this statement:
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner came to Mr. Dodd’s defense, saying in an interview with CNN that his staff had raised concerns about whether the legislation limiting executive compensation “was vulnerable to legal challenge.”

I'm starting to suspect we may get a game of throw dodd off the bus.

Sacramento runs the bums out.

LA times.
Too much media attention can be a bad thing. At least that seems to be the case for a tent city of 200 that sprang up a year ago in Sacramento.

the untold story

The other thing Congress is pissed about is this:

Goldman rejected offers to settle AIG trades at a discount.


One could maybe even suggest that if Goldman pays off the Tarp... congress will still come after them.

Dicks on the line

Something that the bankers don't seem to realize, is that Congress has put their Cocks firmly on the chopping block with the American People.

There is no political upside in defending "BANKERS". Only downside, And only the Republicans trying to cock block anything they can that will help the situation out. Leave it to the republicans, and there would be NO BANKS.

So as a congressman, if I defend banks I have a good chance of losing my seat. I'm in a Hell fight with the Republicans. I'm getting Call after call from the public.

Now what are the bankers doing...

  • 10 million to rebuild some offices, from a bank that is dead in the water.
  • Attempt to buy some new Jets.
  • Circumvent the law to get millions in bonus to employees.
  • Show up and act Indignant to Congress,
  • Lie about how much you are getting paid to congress.
Here is a nice story from Washington post

So, as the Ayn Rand-ers... take care of themselves. Make sure that they get a bonus, and that congress doesn't mess with their Ego's.

It seems like finally these guys hit the Third Rail in this process and congress is about to stick the cattle prods into them.

Seems weird that congress is going to put their ass on the line for the economy. and the bankers won't even put their ass on the line for their bank.
Who seems to care more about bank failure ... The bankers or Congress....

if the bankers don't care....

So... congress will stick the Electrodes in and see if The dog will be trained....
if they won't and if they don't start Clicking their heels and realize who the boss is... Guess what...

It's game over...

We can talk about the idea that the bankers will "Save themselves"... and do what they need to do for Shareholders and for the bank.... but how did that work on the CDOs? They only care about one thing. If I ran a bank... I think I would be happy to have these guys gone.

The real indicator will be banker behavior from this point on... Will they do what they have always done... or will the cattle prod wake them up.

But you may wonder... the banks my just be powerless.

What was the Erin Burnett comment.... "if they can return the money!"

Charts

Right... so we are looking for leadership.... to see a turn.. I said it today, I don't like the SPY chart... it needs another low at least.... it could get away without it. but... I'm not psyched about it. I have the 15 and the 30 min chart... and to measure osolaters, they say... "start looking for a turn." I know we have sold off only 200 pts or so... but remember that is a solid 400 by Pre september standards. We are very oversold. At yesterday's close we had One indicator of a turn... and I did like the spy chart better... but... We now have all the oscolators going on many time frames. SENTIMENT IS AWEFULL!!!! "SENNATE HAS WRECKED THE ECONOMY" HOW WILL BANKERS EVER LIVE ON LESS THAN 2 MILLION A DAY....... ETC.

I know we have hit this meme already.. but my uncle is one of those greedy asshats, who's stock is now down sub 10 with most his equity. Sounds like his bonus is gone too..... serves him right, he isn't a rocket scientist.

Back to the charts... what the SPY doesn't have is a good MACD divergence... and there is yet a good buy signal on the SMI.

So Here are the Semis.... nothign good about this chart... Ok... it didn't close on the low. but no divergence... and the semi's could lead... and the rest of the market can follow in a few days.
BUT!!!!! here is TSM... now that is not a bad chart... even a low volume sell off... MACD... etc. No great Volume spike but... we can look to TSM for leadership in the market.

TSM has lead every time... so on weakness it may be time to add to this position. if it's leading maybe look at some of the slight laggards in the chip sector.

Friday, March 20, 2009

Where does the Bear shit!!!!

SO.. its friday and I'm full of RANT....


This reminds me of something Jack Welch said: at 5 minutes in the video













So... I ask again, Where does the Bear shit in the economy? Shareholder Value? Is the Bear Goldman? Is it Citi? Is it the Financial system?

As a company Focuses on Sharholder value too much.... has our economy focused on "Wall Street" and the financial system Too much.

Has Wallstreet become the dog... and Mainstreet The Tail?... Is that a Sustaining economic Model?
so you have to ask... if Mainstreet, and the congress asks.. or demands that the pay structure for these firms that take bailout money changes... and that God save that guys at goldman have to sell their homes and live in something smaller....

They can give back the money.... since as I hear it.... They don't need it. Companies that pay mid level employees a million dollars, don't need taxpayer money. I've worked for companies in financial distress before, and they just don't rebuild offices or buy new jets. They cut bonuses and live lean.

It makes me think that "Wall street" doesn't get it.... people are living in their cars, and those people will be paying off this debacle for years....

TK Calls a top

The guy who has never called a top... called one over on his blog...

Now... For all of what I'm talking about... One would want to see an uptrend...

GYOFB

The horror show is that the lower the market is the more we get "Statesman-like behavior" we get from the party in power, and the higher we get the more childish they act. Then the reverse seems to be true with the Minority party. If we are Truly moving with the Ebb and Flow of Congress, sounds range bound to me... but the closer it gets to November of next year... the more they will want to see 12K on the DOW.... Of course.. If capitulation nobody cares anymore.

The Country is "A-Flame", People seem ok with the spending "I guess we have to do it.".... But they want somebody to Pay. I quote how J-Leno suggested that "Doesn't Somebody need to go to jail". Maddoff Isn't enough.

There is some Brinksmanship(which is a game Congress plays better than wallstreet). As the Banks Say "We didn't need the money.", and Congress says "Then give it back, Furthermore if then if you do need it, you don't get a Bonus to get bailed out by the taxpayer."... Probably would have gone over better if the banks had clicked their heals and said "Thank you, Sir.". I'm not sure that is in Wallstreet's vocabulary.

One could Quote Friedman "there is no such thing as a Free Lunch"

I could liken it to the tech crash. Where After 2000, guys were happy to have a job at 1/4 the wage they were getting. For "Talented people" who are so familiar with business cycles, they sure seem to be blind when the cycle applies to them.



One of "our" thesis is that the Waiters and service workers are holding up the economy. One might remember that those that founded Laissez-Faire, ended up on a chopping block, and the country turned against capitalism. So ask "Who wants to save Capitalism? The service workers? They want Healthcare. The boomers? They just want to retire. Gen X... They were taught this was not sustainable anyways. Gen Y? they are just figuring out they are going to need to "work". So who is it that is going to save Capitalism? The guys getting the AIG bonus? Citigroup? Goldman?.

So... The broader Question is "Who is the Dog, and Who is the Tail?"

WallStreet has always seen themselves at the dog.

Seems like if I show up at "Dad's house" asking for a Loan. It seems like I'm stuck Cleaning Gutters as pulling off the cover from the air conditioner till it's paid off.


...As far as losing talent. I'd like to refer to The Dilbert principle

But... post hoc ergo propter hoc.

sometimes you are just struggling with the 50dma.

And to be Diabolical.. it was going to take more than one day of selling to suck the bears in again.(or we are finished ;) )

Doug Dachille had a great rant about how corrupt the shareholder system, and how the agents acting on behalf of the shareholders has become. It's charming as things have blown up the solution is to "re issue options for employees" instead of accept that the company needs to be "Rebuilt"... this hits on the Greenspan MEME about how "Our model was wrong"












Ugh


You know... things are just Murky....

Something you don't always see

There was that trend line support.. and if this rally is real... there was a nice bear trap under that trend line support.

The SPY

This is the move I see... this correction I've expected for a week which could pull back all the way to 75 or the November low
here is the flag we are on... Famous last words but it doesnt' have the feel of a Bear fFlag.

Foolish Consistancy

Is the Hobgoblin of little minds.
-Emmerson

I saw somebody call for a crash a few days ago... the idea that we would have a "Double crash"

Well... it's funny, and more likely that the mind is creating patterns... What happened last time... will happen this time... It's very normal human behavior...

Suck them in

SO... I did some "looks" around the internet.. and it feels like we have sucked the short sellers in... after one day of selling they were apprehensive, but now with 2 sell days they are now convinced it's time for the retest...... Bla Bla Bla... good chance it's time to fade them...

Still my model says we could also have a low on monday... I mean.. they literaly have to have the balls to be short over the weekend... but so do the longs..

still fighting


we are getting lat in the day... so the potential is a "Pin" of 77 or 78.. but... Momentum low.. secondary low.... As I have been typing we are having "The 5 min Retest" which is an important retest... But again... there is a chance the forming move is just a Bear flag

Looking for leadership



So, in the XLF we have a momentum low and a secondary... but on the spy and the smh... we don't... But maybe we can see some kind of move now.. Things managed to get spooky there and I've seen all the Idiots in the market get bearish.

Pinning


Well we have my Correction... It's official... 40+pts...

I want to talk about my model... weeks ago I mentioned that "the bottom" is when all models break down. and The low we had certainly broke my model. But the point I want to make is that... by my model Today or Tomorrow would be an inflection point... and yet.. it seems like Wed/thrursday would be an inflection point And by my model it could suggest that we sell for the next expiration period.... Scary... but like I said it was already broken... and there is a chance that we just have a "Low" today or mondy. but closing red won't get sideline money going... But what it will do is get the Bears "all in" again.... Yesterday they were nervous... this will get them frothing... One would like to see them get burned.Options expiration "Pinning" Yep WFC went beyond my 14.40... and is Pinning 14 right now... It will be interesting to see if it "pins" here or maybe 15 at the close 16 would be possible too... but so would 13... But the spy is working on 76... *shrug*

The ABC Correction

Because tony is looking at WFC And I was talking about when you look at a correction you look for an ABC form. So Leg A and C tend to be the same length. I also throw a little Fib. on it and I get a lower target 14.34 A leg and B leg the same Length.BUT... When I look for the same form out of the C leg.... I get more of a 15.00 target breaking the C leg into it's own ABC correction form....

Single Ply

So... I struggle with this issue.

Market price for a great Financial guy is some odd 1 mill a year.

Over the next 5 years that is probably going to fall. The supply of financial service guys is High, and the demand is low.

The only work out there are Bonds and selling mortgages to the fed... and some of the usual Trading Arbitrage opportunities.

Problem is though the pay is on the decline one has to deal with current market rates.

But, when I see Citi decide to spend 10 million on office renovations..... UMN!!!!! WTF. To be honest... regardless of if you "needed" tarp money or not. If you are a bank and you took money. Guess what... It's time for the single ply in the bathroom. Time for the Cheep soap. Time for cutting and saving anywhere you can and cope with.

This is what bothers me... Very much Fiddling when Rome burns. And reflects what is wrong in the financial services idustry.. and hints at the idea that it is such a Fat Sector that it just has to go on a serious diet before it's healthy.

Targets


So... as I look at charts. We arn't going up on lower and lower volume. Which says any pull back is probably a consolidation. We do have a nice high volume peak here. I hate to go into ABC Momentum low, secondary low... but there is a chart pattern to what has happened to suggest that what we had or have is roughly a near term low. I more significant pull back wouldn't suprise me.

But... Truth is the selling here is higher volume than the buying.. Which explains why the market has been going down.

SO the 50DMA is the resistance and we have it it once... so 2 more times to go through.

I also saw a chart that drew this as a Pennant... UMN..... Try Descending triangle.... but we will see..

But... All eyes are on the 50dma... and at that point it seems probable that everybody will go "All in"

Thursday, March 19, 2009

A tale of 3 models

This is where the bullshit gets thick. I have 3 models... Can you guess that One is up, One is down, and one is sideways... Ok... I wouldn't do that. 2 are up 1 is down.

Just to make it clear what I see.

  • Large pullback consolidation. In the Middle of any good Rocket ship, there is one big correction. Like the Size of the VIX... So 400pts or 40spx. From Yesterday Peak to today, it's roughly 20pts or 200pts.. So every chance of a further pull back of that size. Hinting at 200pts down tomorrow or 100pts tomorrow and 100pts on monday. There are no sellers under 700spx, I kid you not... if there were no buyers there are no sellers.. people may try to short it... but it won't have enough mojo for anything segnificant IMHO. there is also a chance of a slow pull back most of next week.
  • The other 2 are just resolutions... We could have the above consolidation. which then resolves in Another leg up to the mid 850-900 Or a Bull trap above the 50dma.
SO... that is my bullshit hedging... If I had to suggest one of them... Let us say we have some form of consolidation into a move to 830 or so....

As I look at sentiment and I see bears and a ton of neutrals(scared to be wrongs)... Maybe 3-15 bullish..

It may take another sell day to suck some sellers in..... I still wouldn't be supervised at a spike higher tomorrow then days of selling.... Ofter OE options expiration the market tends to trend in the same direction... so... Since my thesis is Bullish... I have no idea how it will work...

and hell as bearish as everyone is... Up seems like the direction.

GYOFB

I've been trying to figure out for 2 days Who Piggy is... Geitner? Dodd? Liddy? The republicans? The Guys at AIG? Maybe that is how a game of Lord of the Flies works... You just play until the weakest one is Culled from the Herd.

The much better game would have been for the Democrats to have sided up against the Blue dogs and the Republicans and let them win on this. Let them come out on the side of the "Fat Cat AIG Bonus". Democrats are never all that good at Game Theory. Lose a small battle, and gain some seats.

The part of me that loves a good "Black Helicopter" is very excited about the "Find the Goldman Sachs Cabal" game, we are sure to play. Nothing better than congressman embarrassing themselves in front of Huge WhiteBoards and Q&A sessions, talking about the Illuminati and Masters of the universe. I guess the Democrats have to have some kind of answer to Ron Paul.

For anyone who missed it, there was a charming moment today when one of the Republicans evoked the name of Ron Paul and suggested abolition of the Fed.

If it wasn't so Tragic... It would all be very funny.

Non Bank lenders

There was just a story about how "non bank lenders" need warehouse lending to sell mortgages to fanny and freddy. and how things won't improve till it does..

Umn... how if the banks make those loans.... I'm not so sure anyone wants "Non Bank Lenders" to ever be involved in the market again....

and "don't cry for me..... non bank lenders"












good news

Jeff mackie is bearish.... "don't get involoved"...

so he is hedging his opinion....

This is neutral sentiment, and hints at more upside. Everybody is waiting to see if we can clear 800, and will be willing to go long at that point..... EVERYBODY!!!!!

Potential bull flag

let us mention that if we havn't toped ... near term.. that a Flag... outside the Trade channel... suggests a final near term top.

congress and the AIG bonus

SO.... the public wants the AIG boys to get in up the Anti-PieHole... or the Pie Out Hole.

The game would be to Let the Republicans Kill the measure to stop the AIG bonus' and have them be on the side of the "Let them fail and get Paid"

Then barney can run around all Indignant about it.

My afternoon read

As anticipated we are struggling with the 50dma.

Everybody is watching the downtrend/50dma.

Everybody has switched to neutral...

some of the osolators on a daily(not shown) are still bullish... in the 50% range.
In the short term... again, the high volume could have shown a "Top" We are working on my uptrends... Still there is possible "consolidation" move here...
Once again.. consolidations get bigger with time.

Wonder

I'm still wondering if I missed some short term Euphoria...

With AIG and all the fed stuff .

It just seems like there was a lot of noise in the sentiment model

France braces for national strikes


France is bracing itself for nationwide strikes and a huge protest march in Paris on Thursday.

But railway workers started their strike on Wednesday evening, leaving many commuters struggling to get home.

The 24-hour protests are aimed at pressing the government to give workers better support during the economic crisis.

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"