Right... so we are looking for leadership.... to see a turn.. I said it today, I don't like the SPY chart... it needs another low at least.... it could get away without it. but... I'm not psyched about it. I have the 15 and the 30 min chart... and to measure osolaters, they say... "start looking for a turn." I know we have sold off only 200 pts or so... but remember that is a solid 400 by Pre september standards. We are very oversold. At yesterday's close we had One indicator of a turn... and I did like the spy chart better... but... We now have all the oscolators going on many time frames. SENTIMENT IS AWEFULL!!!! "SENNATE HAS WRECKED THE ECONOMY" HOW WILL BANKERS EVER LIVE ON LESS THAN 2 MILLION A DAY....... ETC.
I know we have hit this meme already.. but my uncle is one of those greedy asshats, who's stock is now down sub 10 with most his equity. Sounds like his bonus is gone too..... serves him right, he isn't a rocket scientist.
Back to the charts... what the SPY doesn't have is a good MACD divergence... and there is yet a good buy signal on the SMI.
So Here are the Semis.... nothign good about this chart... Ok... it didn't close on the low. but no divergence... and the semi's could lead... and the rest of the market can follow in a few days.
BUT!!!!! here is TSM... now that is not a bad chart... even a low volume sell off... MACD... etc. No great Volume spike but... we can look to TSM for leadership in the market.
TSM has lead every time... so on weakness it may be time to add to this position. if it's leading maybe look at some of the slight laggards in the chip sector.
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Charts
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3 comments:
Interesting look at sectors:
http://nn.nf/1abnd
If-- and that's a big IF- this scheme works, most of the things that will work seem to be inflation plays: materials, chemicals, etc.
I'm not arguing with your chart, but in this list, tech is at the bottom of the list.
that is a 6 year chart of Japan...
all the rotation thesis is is that there may be stregnth in tech... for... a quarter or so.
Just as Pharma was strong for 6 months, and may be over. and utilities were strong for 6 months, and staples were strong for 6 months..
Point is the discrepancy is time frame.
as we keep experiencing forecasting macro is hard. When Japan went trough QE it went through it on it's own, now the world is going through it. I'm not saying that chart is wrong. I'd suggest that there could be differences.
And if we can get inflation going, materials are a good play.
if you used that same chart, with U.S. markets during the same time frame... they would show the same thing...
and we didn't have QE.
why is that?
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