Some reads this morning

still some Sketchy "Fear" Nervousness in the market.

I've heard the 1000 SPX calls.

Some of the double shorts I'm hearing about how they are going to zero.

I'm on my fake vacation....

I'm getting that "Feeling" that the market is going to the moon? is that a good thing?

I'm testing out this phrase:

How I Learned to Stop worrying and learned to Love The Market!

Top story on Market watch

More sentiment:
Bank Results Challenge Rally!!

Results from Citigroup, Goldman Sachs
and J.P. Morgan will test the recent rally.
Write-offs remain a big question.

But.... On the other side of the coin:

Treasury Department's program to clear out $1 trillion in so-called toxic

Somebody actually referred to them as "So-Called"!!!, I've been Bitching for a month now how "Popular" that word is, especially in the popular Nomenclature, And I guarantee if I asked 95% of the people who say it, "What a Toxic Asset is?" They wouldn't have the Foggiest. But that is a big step up, for people to start recognizing what a sad little "Catch Phrase" this is.

Just to give my read on the market, The real Challenge in the market May be the Materials earnings. There are so many people chasing the "Reflation trade" that is where the real danger is. I would suggest that unless "Mr. Vickrum" is found sticking CDO's up a Dead Boy's ass...

My local Paper

I read the Money section of the local paper today.

Wells Fargo's record profit: Good omen or anomaly?

The unexpected peek into the bank's official results, which will be released in two weeks, was a welcome sign of improvement in one of the most troubled and critical industries in the U.S. economy.

I was reading some of the rest of the stories, and there was some "Cautious bottom calling"


At last, economy leveling off -- but bumps not over

Stock investors, shoppers and home buyers are less jittery. Once-frozen credit markets are slowly thawing. And economic indicators that had been going from bad to worse are showing signs of stabilizing -- though still at distressed levels.

Comments on this story:

4/9/2009 9:02:00 PM -- Rightwinger wing nuts will soon be taking credit for any improvement in the economy. [MORE]

4/9/2009 7:55:00 PM -- Even dead cats bounce! The new accounting rules give incentive for the banks to hold the toxic stuff on their books at possibly... [MORE]

4/9/2009 6:56:00 PM -- After taking bailout money, how can they claim to have "made" a profit ... unless robbing the US Treasury is now considered an... [MORE]

(one neutral, 2 Negative)

This makes me nervous about monday's action, I guess I'd be more nervous if the posted a big headline "It's OVER!"

Some sentiment

I was out at Barns and Noble today, Guess what book was Prominently displayed.

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

It was top of the Science section it's own shelf, tons of copies and top of the Finance section.

I didn't see and exceptional amount of homes for sale on my extended walk today. And when I rewarded myself for such an exceptional week at the Local Ruby Tuesdays. Everybody was bitching about the economy, and the guys drinking had finished work early(working Construction) and had stopped for a beer, But no food, because they were fairly broke.

Links to the blog

I'm still getting a ton of Links about WFC, Tons of people trying to convince themselves to go or stay short.

Some Sentiment talk

Next week is Options Expiration week.

so we have potential pivots of Monday and Friday, Having a reversal on the day before the Monday, would fit into some game theory, and we could get a nice move from Monday through May 1... May 1 see all the money come in end of the month...

What I want to see is a sense that A: the bears have given up. and B: that the big money managers are making that classic mistake... "chasing the trade, like the market is getting away from them." Where all the guys on TV saying "no Bottom" have to jump in... Like teresa says "Hell hath no furry like a client missing out on a Rally."...
We want to see the Big money managers make this mistake Like Mad!!!!.
That and Bear Capitulation.

but As I listen to CNBC, they were all "there is a sense of Good Mojo and happiness here in the studio"

Ugggg... so, checking the blogs would be a good idea.

Sentiment...

nice little magazine indicator..... I just keep hoping for Armageddon so I can get some regular sleep

Economic Rocket Science... that got us here!

West Texans Plan "Tea" Party to Protest Federal Spending

Seems obvious the country is going to struggle through all the tragic GAME THEORY, that pushed us into the Great Depression.

ODESSA - Fed up over federal spending tax payer, Dottie Chavez is organizing a TEA party in Odessa set for April 15th.

The tax day protest is a part of a national movement calling for Congress to rein in spending. TEA stands for Taxed Enough Already. Organizers in every state are looking to add numbers to the movement.

The Associated Press reports the House approved a budget blueprint favored by President Barack Obama, Thursday. According to the wire service the $3.6trillion plan includes a deficit of $1.2 trillion. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says the vote signals the country wants "real change."

Doesn't all brilliant economic thinking come out of Odessa Texas?

Not talked about

Something Missed.... The MEME is that "The market forecasts the recovery 6-8 months in advance"

So... on average the normal Recession is 12-16 months long. That is half way through. Let us also mention that the market doesn't predict the top by 12-16 months, in fact it tends to Lag.

BUT!!! My point is there is another MEME, which is that the Market Bottoms HALF WAY THROUGH THE RECESSION, that the Trough in the market is then.

Sentiment

Barry, this morning was pointing to the comments on this post as a good indicator of sentiment.

It's what I've been pointing to for some time. We seem overwhelmingly bearish, regardless of what CNBC is showing.

A new MEME

I noticed a new MEME in the media in regard to the GM Auto Bail out.

it was the idea that Obama has to play Brinkmanship with the bondholders/union/management. and that he may have to play this to the brink, because without a belief of the parties that the administration won't blink. They won't give up their quest to Milk the government Tit.

Which suggests that we should have information risk on this all the way to the brink and beyond on the GM Bailout.

on another note I heard someone say "Do you think that if this was Toyota, or Honda that the Japanese government wouldn't do everything they can to Make that MFG sector work, and that they wouldn't be behind them 100%. They know that Auto MFG is Very important." and yet isn't it this kind of tough love that they need.

have to love OBAMA

Selling off into hope

For the past 2 years, we have tended to sell off into hopeful events. Eternal optimism into a selling climax.

and here we are with a perfect opportunity to "top" into the G20, and we have sold into it...

I'm just continuing to comment on the change in sentiment .