Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Saturday, January 31, 2009


I just read 20 minutes of ... all the economic whine and speculation in pring (called my feed reader)...


Apparently common wisdom is that the "Bad bank" is why we tanked, and if only they can get the market talking about it again.... Things will be good right?

So, to trade against the rumor of a "Bad bank", which will cause a pop... but then sell off. Because... we have to get them cheaper...

Friday, January 30, 2009


After... the great "Baseing" debate... seems like suddenly everyone is bearish..

I was just looking through the blogs...

12 of 12 technicians are bearish.... except TK I think.... God bless him.

I like to see my "Bad mojo" working out.... Makes me feel better. Worst thing would be to be Afraid of "The great Bull Rally Bottom"....

Let me also like to Re-iterate.... I was not happy with the Bob Pisani bottom, or the Erin Burnette Tipple Bottom.

But for all my talk.....

Seems like all that bearishness should be worth a bounce :P

I kept hearing people say shit like "Hope" and "Want".... Bla Bla Bla....

Go Claire!!!!

Claire McCaskill today talking about how if you get tarp money you should be limited to 400K in compensation.

I love that she calls them idiots.

"They don't get it," McCaskill said. "These people are idiots. You can't use taxpayer money to pay out $18-billion in bonuses... What planet are these people on?"

"Once they're off the public dole, once the taxpayers aren't footing the bill, then it's not as much our business what they get paid," she said. "But right now, they're on the hook to us. And they owe us something more than a fancy waste basket and a $15-million dollar jet. They owe us some common sense."

bankrupt companies...

I also say that JPM, GS, WFC are welcome to give the money back. We can see how long they can stay solvent. I guess the people with real value can go to solvent companies.... If they can find a job that doesn't have 400 guys who want it.

Some local macro

Headed off to a movie, Couldn't convince myself to watch Titanic 2, or Somebody tried to clone Kate Beckensdale.

But, I've never seen so many free Prime working age males in the middle of the day.

So... As wallstreet begs for promotions, I'm reminded of how for the past 13 years, i've been in a constant argument with employers about how they need to pay me a living wage. The entire time just to have them make promises they couldn't or never intended to keep. I always wonder where they learn it, but you just say "well, give us another year or two, and maybe we can make that happen." and 2 years later it was all "oh, well we just can't do that yet."... all to wonder why they can't find good employees.

I was working at a company that doubled the management staff, then cut the installation staff in half.... how does that work.... How do we have more paperwork, and less equipment to install.

Seems to me like America is filled with a ton of people who are constantly waiting for a real job. Soon as somebody comes up with some, there is no shortage of good people to work them.


volume picked up... some of that end of the month action...

*shrug* back to the trend line... but again volume is drying up.


to bring myself to go see a movie....

We had an interesting bounce..

I suspect that is all there is too it.... it was just interesting.

For the life of me

I can't read this wave.

how about this... No wave 4... there is a hint of an ABC.

I think I said it yesterday. Traders want a deal. another possibility is that "the bounce in the rubber band has run out."

I like to see materials and staples lead us down. Financials seem to be the best in a bad batch.

I smell bear


It's going one way or the other.

I'm going back to bed, turn on a movie.... Maybe late morning more yoga... spend the weekend meditating. see if I can get my mojo back.

I just suspect this market is all about this morning, if we go up... we are a bull, down a bear.

Bob Pisani

He umn... Just talked about how crazy everyone is.

You have to give it to Exxon, they are just the most economically viable company in the country, congress and the banks could learn a lesson.

Standard trade: over-bought, then a correction. then buy them again.


So... there is more follow through from yesterday's move in gold, overnight...

And yet the dollar is stronger...

Umn... My interest is still marginal. This just seems out of sync, Until I feel more in-sync with the market. It's going to be better to just be mellow.

Nadal is trying to get beaten by another Spaniard(Verdasco)... Crazy that this is the only match today.

Run some screens maybe...

I heard Rush Limbaugh today... Wow! that just put me over the edge.... Like I say the market is crazy!!! when Rush is on Opening Bell..... Cramer is doing charts..... Fortunately Steve forbes was just on overnight talking about mark to market Wheeeewwww. Steve is my Rock!!!

More talk about how Wall street, though subsidized by taxpayers..... Need bit bonus checks to run the country into the ground.... how about a taxpayer bonus for Jamie, Or... Paulson or Bernake, Shiela Bair.... sure there is some contraversy... but they do work hard.

I hear all this stuff, and just think about the Janitor who works for 20 grand, and will pay some 14K over his life for this bullshit.

Thursday, January 29, 2009


I've decided we have officially gone crazy.

I just saw a note from goldman, that talked about how impossible it was going to be to buy all the bad assets...

meaning they were going to buy every bad commercial and consumer loan in the country.

they were like "it will take 4 trillion to do that".... ok, seriously are they going to buy them all... or just some of them... and they are going to take something in return..... so....

I saw a note by meridith, reported as "bad bank won't increase lending"... and roughly that is what she said, but it's all just reported like...... Like everybody in the world is short banks right now. Overall... nothing is going to increase lending. and the real problem is the implosion of the Shadow bank system.... Which... I'm not sure is coming back. State Street...

some stuff

We will see what the morning brings.

We could have a nice aversion in a basing move.

and a nice bear flag.....

Problem is, with the end of the month buying, we should get a bounce... Which could be a Fake out for that aversion phase. ... Basically another Higher low in the market.. but then just to blow up after monday.

So... You know.... Who the hell knows what is going to go on...

One could try and go long in the morning if we uptrend, and even toy with getting out on the first.... or second as it were.


I was working on some screens.

Ugh... Gold and safety plays..... blech!!!

seems like the issue with a screen... If those are going to work, I'd rather be short.


So... with end of month buying, there should be an upbias for the next 2 days...

I'll see what happens through Monday..


I just tried to catch up on the market... I don't know.... I'm starting to hate it. A few low stress days... Always reminds me of what life can be like.... Worse, sometimes I feel like I'm rolling dice with risk management.

Best not to think about it... Not to actually say it "But I may be burning out here"

For those of you who havn't followed, I am super realistic about the market.

  • It's just a Shell game.
  • Stocks are worthless
  • This is no way for a "Real human being to make money"(this isn't an insult, since it is so lucrative.)
I probably just need to .... I don't know.... Compartmentalize Trading better..

This is what I get for doing Yoga today....

Melissa lee

"After obama's comments, how important are bonus' in retaining talent at wallstreet firms"

Earth to melissa..... With that kind of help, they don't need to be retained.

Just crazy"We are completely bankrupt and on the virge of nationalization, but to keep this good help around.... We have to have big bonus'."

Thank the lord CNBC is there to fight for the little guy.

END of the month

One caution I have right now....

is that there is money flow into the market in the next 2 days with the end of the month.

Now i did hear the other half glass in my head on that today.

There also are some redemptions for end of the quarter.

trade channel

there is the lower trade channel, this also has to be a Bull flag... Volume has to pick up... but we will sit here into the close
when the other channel broke down, I didn't mind being a little short.

Seems like traders want a better deal on stocks than they got a week ago.

There is a sale at pennies!!!

I know that you need an update

The woman's final is Serina and Safina.... I missed serina dispatching dementiava last night, I'm hoping they replay it.

Roddick.... I'm not a huge fan, but I'm very proud... for years I had hope... then gave up hope... and out of that despair it seems like he has rebounded... and again... I have some hope that he may just have a grandslam or 2 in him... or at least some semi's or some finals.

There are 2 interesting times in a tennis players career, As they fight to the top, and what they do after they get knocked off.

That is andy's GF... I couldn't bring myself to post a picture of him.


well now.... not so much holding the channel

some trade channels for ya


87 volume has to pick up.


for all my bearishness we have a nice wedge here... I guess it needs to be on declining volume to be valid... which seems to be the case, it has picked up over the past hour.


that 85 level... I think needs to hold, we managed some volume.... but it tapered off


Well we have closed the gap from yesterday.... Roughly. but... the sell off seems to be on higher volume.... and the bounce continues to be unimpressive.


that has sort of given way, we didn't get a good bounce... but with some "wider trendline managemnet, we arn't actually below it yet.... but there still is that red trendline that represents more of a Flag.

In other news...

I just managed 3 minutes of "america's top model"..... Fuck the derivative shit...... That is the rotting core of america.... I'm with Al'Quada on this (oh! shit The NSA will be on me now right?)...

Toying with the first one

there is still the other one below it.

Where are we...

My wedge gave way yesterday... Seems like we want to test the trade channel. 87 was in my target... In Elliot waves. Yesterday was the end of wave 3, we are in a wave 4 pullback... We are still in the trade channel so anything can happen.....

Also there is a chance of an "Aversion" stage if we do break out.

I'm still, on my pretend vacation.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

I don't know

Maybe it's just me...... but, Things are trading so disorderly... That is what is giving me the creeps. Things bouncing 20-10-5% in a matter of hours. Seems like a tough game

also look at that volume


seems like we may have hit a short term(day trading) top... Umn...

Resolution of the secondary trend will not happen till the close...

Maybe then we can have a pull back.

some formations

I refuse to watch cnbc today.... Umn.. I've thrown out that wedge that I showed this morning. I also threw out some potential Flags. There is another one, that... is more high energy... I just don't see that kind of trade right now...

Which of course is why it will probably happen.

but you can see us grinding against that wedge right now.

I also have 87 and 88 targets....

how is that for some shitty T.A.... 87-90


I wrote this up as a comment, and found it was better on my blog

Traders have a tenancy to, only trade what they have known.

One could suggest that they only know the "Big bank Economic Model" and should trade as such.

As I've listened to most of the regional banks, even they are captivated by the idea that "Now they can become Citibank."... But I'm sure they assume that they will be successful where citi failed or at a minimum their compensation packages will be on par with the money centers.

One might think that there may just be some kind of new macro banking model.

But... The market will demand that Multi Billion dollar deals will have to get done, and small banks will have a hard time with them.

Even some of the "winners" out there, may have to take some time digesting, some of the current acquisitions.

It does also bring to mind that we also could see more mergers, than acquisitions for a while.

Hey... You got a chart this morning

that is something,

I did short some gold, pullback this afternoon I may grab some index.

Tennis lasts the rest of the week, I think I'm happy to take a little vacation here for a few days.

What could happen here is my move to 900spx or so for a few days, and we could just bounce on 800 for the next year...

there is a wedge

It resolves in a few days in the 90-88.50 range or so

You want another Half glass on banks

there was Billions and billions of sideline cash ready to go into Bear, by the private sector. Moreover, there were billions for all the financial institutions.

When the government stepped in and started "deciding bank resolutions", all that money dried up because they can't take the risk the government would have stepped in and wiped them out.

and that is still the truth today.

The same is true today. So, the moment they stepped in, there was no choice, it was a feedback loop. and all money from then on was going to come from the federal government, because as a private investor You can't touch them for fear of the government.

That is just another argument.

Some stuff

I'm still in cranky mode.... be honest I just want to forget about the market. and may do everything I can to ignore it for a while

I'd suggest there is a 10% chance of a false breakout.

most likely thing is for a run from now through feb 1... in that time is a good point to sell the news of the stimulus and the "Bad bank".. Who knows where we will be at that point...

this weak motion in the market is what is killing me, there is also some "disorder" to it. Not that that means anything. I'll also point out the declining volume. Though it is roughly "median" volume, though declining.

the idea that we would have a breakout day on an FOMC where they will do nothing. is kind of wierd

Tuesday, January 27, 2009


Yep..... I realized today I've got a little Cabin Fever/Seasonal D.

Which isn't helping things.

So.... The trade has been Long Dollar into the ECB, and short dollar into the FOMC...

So, for all the ....I heard somebody talk about "materials/reflation as new market Leadership" today... Some of that trade is the rebound against the dollar after Europe tried to collapse and the short dollar into the FOMC.

and to point out oil today, Oil was 47 yesterday, and 43 today may have even ended at 42.

sentiment shift

I heard Zion reported today, had a 20% pop, though they missed expectations and had a huge write off for "GoodWill"...

and yet last week similar reports were pounded with 20% beatings.

So..... I'm cranky now... I may stop posting, for a while.

Word is

.... they are going to throw out the bad bank solution imminently... Should be enough to give us a great breakout....

Yep... My model worked... and it looks like for the most part I'll be missing the rally...


No worries I just did the hard Knife catching part.

On my haunches

if we get a good break out we have an 87-90 target.

Unless it's a false breakout...

not that I care


so much hope and yet.... we keep sliding...

I have some ideas on our new environment... assuming we are in one. I'll work on those later

The Plane!!! Boss, The Plane!! Citi needs a private plane... but as the elitest scumbag, talking heads on CNBC are saying, since they are Wanabie, wallstreet scumbags, are saying..... Yes, they need a plane.

But why do they need a new one, it's fine they fly. But they don't need to buy a new plane at this point.... since we can just say they are effectivly insolvent.

Laid up

Well this is going to continue, till I feel the mojo.

Sure does feel like sentiment has turned... Bad news is ignored, Good news Emphasized...

but again we are still at 830-840, as we have been for 5 days.

Tennis... I may even ignore cnbc today.


Well, I expect today I'm going to be sidelined again.

Futures look strong, early this morning.... Since that is completely un-helpful as an observation.

Let me also say, I'm getting a ton of good sleep... Being sidelined.

Monday, January 26, 2009


the market ends at 83...... I'm jumping
I was just looking at pictures of "jumpers"... and unfortunately.. on the INTERNET there are pictures of actual jumpers....

finding some support

we have a little support here.... Not sure what it will develope into.. we may want to test 84 again.

only read I have

I don't have a clear read on this, except that we hit that trendline...

We have neither broken that trendline...Nor does this look very good.


look at this, I remarked last week that most the banks didn't show great washouts.

USB did, and yet look at it getting killed today. it wants to retest 12

Oil, construction... Autos???? metals.

So... Oil is trying to sell off.

all the stregnth in the market seems to be in some crazy places.

I sound skeptical that can result in an up market.

that is ominous


I still think maybe I'll just go for a run today... Mello out....

There is a ton of support under this move. it does feel like it's a false breakout...

Like I said..... I'm going to mello out. There is some bounce, but it's very disorderly.

the buy volume has dried up, but the sell volume is also weak...

You know this is now 2 months and we are in the middle of the range..

Umn.... Erin said a technision.....

"Tripple Bottom?".... What do you get after a third test of bottom? 50% retrace, then back to the lows..... for that elusive "Quad bottom?"

But... there is a reason I'm sitting this out......

I obviously have my head up my ass right now.

That is it...

Tennis and back to bed.....


that is overhead resistance.

seems like

back to 900spx.

Back to 84 again...

breakout to the pivot

just enough to suck them in? or are we going to get a bounce?

Economist Paul Ryan

.... Oh... wait he is just a republican congressman.... I keep forgetting.. No wait, He keeps forgetting.

Again... I don't know.... I keep feeling the Yips coming on.

There is that boxing quote, where "in order to get out of the way of a punch you have to step into it, and push away.". I keep feeling like I'm out of step.

  • If gold is going to pull back, one would think fear reduced and the market should rise.
  • If we have some form of stimulus package, we should at least anticipate it ... A little.
  • End of the month is comming, one would think we would get a bounce.
And yet... I feel like we are in a slow slide.

  • If the market popped in commodities, and they pull back a bit... seems like the market could go lower.
The other bad part is that, I hate to day trade..... HATE IT HATE IT HATE IT... I feel like I'm getting older with every trade.

PFE just cut the dividend to buy Wyeth... All after the pharma sector swore they were secure in the Divi. It's always funny how the dividend plays blow up, in sort of a self fulfilling prophecy. Companies want to maintain a 2% dividend, just to keep institutional investors interested but when the stock goes down, they are compleatly willing to cut it. Even though one would think if they held it would support the stock price, and you would have to beat the investors away.


Looks like after the open europe managed a bounce.

Futures have improved, and working on a flat opening.

European banks look like they caught a nice bounce.

I may just mello out pre-market.

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Some morning reflections

... It's funny, I live the economy every day... and to wake up on sunday with the "Weekend warrior" economic debate on This week, and Meet the press.

there was a debate on "This week with George Steph.". Krugman was on, trying to talk sense into people.. Not that He has the answers, but it just seem obvious that anyone without their head up their ass knows that "You can't force the banks to lend."... I mean..
Ok, they are giving the banks money at 5%... and they want them to make mortgages at 5%... I mean.. where is the margin(ya I know in the leverage ratio.) but .. Ok... who do they loan to.... GE?

The interesting part is that.. there is a clear consensus out there that "Congress needs to Force the banks to loan". This has me spooked... I just think people think that this is the answer to the problem... More credit.

Mackey said Months ago... that the market needs to get so cheep that you know you are getting a bargain.

T-Lo put it this week Clearly in her rules for survival, that one follows the dumb money, but as the first lemming dissapears, it's good to stop following them. My thoughts are that seems like the trade on the next bounce is Materials and banks, tech.. Semi's. I'm not sure if this means buy gold or gold miners.... Gold just kills me, how counter intuitive it is... It even tends to be counter counter intutive.

Some thoughts on the market... One interesting thing is that there don't seem to be any bears.

Let's talk about market action... I've said in the past that the choppy action is sign of a turn.. What sometimes isn't said is that we "Sometimes have a choppy action before we leg down... After that Leg... Then we have a V bottom... and yet... sometimes it's a little different.

I also saw some Time series analysis which said we need 3 down bars to make a bottom... or 5

Saturday, January 24, 2009

2 wedges and a flag

So ignore any but the white lines... you have 2 wedges and a flag.... no that is not a new pattern... that is 3 different patterns..
One of them resolves on say.. tuesday,(the tighter one) It though doesn't seem clean.

The second one, So far so good.... but also resolves sometime next thursday/friday. and doesn't seem impossible.. but bad news is it only moves to about 90 on the upside.

1 wedge looks to resolve tuesday... or so...(let us also remember that once you have a breakout beyond the wedge, it can break out and up..
Ok... lets talk about friday..... In blue... that is a NICE bear flag, target 79.5. Also...

I was talking about a Wedge or any trend line... in red was that nice wedge I found, it's a perfect example of a wedge... and that "when a trend line breaks, it's what it does After that is important, normaly it will "Play with" the trend line. After breaking out of the wedge it moved up up like it was supposed to and resolved perfectly.... Again, I trade what some people call "Live Trendline support resistance, But What happens is that trends are broken all the time.. it's what it does after that is important.... and it's always something "to note". and move your stops.. and get defensive.


Why is it still hard to sleep even though I can...

I mean in a trading day... I want a nap at 7am... and another one at noon...

And yet.. Saturday... Up at 2am.

It must be that the market is a Rorschach test... and maybe even one for everybody..

The move this week reminded me of the Christmas move.... only less conviction than that basing move.

but... overall... I keep looking for answers and there don't seem to be any.

or I'm ignoring them..


Friday, January 23, 2009

This is what I have!

Remember.... Fridays are my bigest mistake days... as fatigued as I am... I'm lucky I know which way is up....

Let me just say MY MODEL SAYS THIS IS THE HIGHER LOW on the monthly. Sentiment says the "banks have no bottom" sentiment change should give us the turn, as it eases... And yet Europe and Asia are in Crisis, and they are looking for a very bearish move in those markets, Some kind of panic low.... I havn't charted them, but one would think they would get it in the next 2 weeks.
But... As I was Charting yesterday and asking.... which pattern do we have... I felt we had a pendant because of the nasty sell off on Thursday by the close. This morning the Pennant was violated... We did get a bounce and it was a ..... Significant rejection of the low. But... the pattern was broken and we now have what looks like a DESCENDING TRIANGLE.....
And yet the sell off at the close was much weaker.

The other part of this sentiment cycle... could be a grinding despair stage and my feel is that this is what we have.... I think I can back that up with the idea that for the most part... what are left are day traders.... this grinding action could be just what shakes most people out of the market and gives us this despair stage.......

Let me just say ... I'm very torn about the direction of the market.

Just sillyness!!!

did we end "NULL".....


there is a resolving wedge

umn... I haven't checked it for volume

mason dixon line

well that was the mason dixon line.

I know I'm a Flip-FLoper

That redish-pink line is the MASON DIXON LINE in the market.
Overall, this is not a bad basing pattern for the market... With a Beautifull AVERSION PHASE this morning.... That I wanted to puke into.

I wonder

IF the market will ebb and flow with congress.

If they are complacent, it will go down.

If they are Afraid and acting it will go up.

If they are fighting and bickering it will go down.

the interesting thing is ...

If the market is up... will they become complacent...

and at what point if all of that happens,will they be... HUMBLED into Reasonable action.

Seems like a dream.

Morning observation

the morning gloom gave us a decent bounce, and some key stocks reject some crazyness.

here it is 10, I'm looking for some volume indicator that this upmove is running out of steam.

But in some issues I'm seeing a lack of selling.

Which doesn't mean there is buying....

What are you crazy...

do you think I can not play?



I'm tempted to just not play....


gold is going crazy today...

Meridith whitney

Let me just say some nasty words...

so she came out talking about consolidation, in the banking industry.

BULLSHIT! Again... the Financial services industry has less value than CDO's, You want to talk about .30 on the dollar, Lets talk about .5 on the dollar for Investment bankers and financial advisors.
There are 50 Investment bankers for every job. Explain to me, how we need more John Thain's, Chuck Prince's, etc.... Seems like we have an oversupply. In an industry where your greatest asset goes out the door every day. There is no reason to buy more doors. You are much better to bottom fish on people, than bother to consolidate.

The UK is on it's way out, Asia to follow.

if you tie GS MS BAC C together, you don't get a raft. You get a tangled knot. which is still 10 times too big for the market.

Some morning rants

First of all, The U.K. is insolvent(BTW i don't mean this), but it's down 1% then moved to 2%.

Damn the Dollar sterling is like 1.3... that sucker was 2.2 a year ago.

Euro hitting new recent lows.'s quest to become the financial capitol of the world..... Be careful what you ask for, you may surely get it. I also have a small giggle about this ex-girlfriend who got her MBA and moved to London thinking the jobs would be better.

I know it's counter to my general Thesis, to be surprised that we don't trade on the news.... Just the notion that somehow Earnings being shitty is a surprise. It's like saying the market doesn't anticipate a damn thing..... which of course it doesn't. Since these are just worthless little pieces of paper, which are showing their fundamental value.

I was reflecting on the John Thane thing, and Juxtaposing that against all the people out there who Just want to Work hard, Produced goods and services, mow their lawns, Raise their kids, and hope to retire. When you wonder what is wrong with the world... that is it. People who work hard getting skewed while these economic freeloaders, who don't actually add to the GDP, Just bank Millions at everyone else's' expense.

I haven't even started on how the Vix, though we have seen higher.... shows potential for daily 7% moves. if you put it in relative perspective... it's almost never been higher.

Tony has been doing some nice work on rotations.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Pick your Poison





I have a hard time.... thinking about a market where the major banks in the country are trading like INTERNET stocks.

I've been staring at charts and am just befuddled.... mostly from fatigue.

Volume wise, if they arn't going to Zero... they are bottoming.

WFC ended flat...

USB.... has showed washout... and yet ended flat...

Better.. any time I'm spooked about them.... seems like that is when to buy....

I'm compleatly weak in the knees....

and still I'm not sure about a wash out day.

I just hate this

it all just feels like playing the lotto.


I want to believe we are out of the woods

we need that higher high

come confirmation of a higher high and a higher low.

back above trend

there is that trend line again... also slightly noticable is the red downtrend line

after yesterday

I've just got ........ These charts .... I just don't want to play. Too much chop..

and yet that can be an indicator of a turn... or the move just before the spike low.

well I said fuck it

Picked up some call options in FITB...

Either worthless or they get baught up... or market crazy.

lets see

if tha can turn the market


I can't realy post....

Wow.... some of this stuff is just....... "don't touch the market at this point"

the market just has to start fighting it to the upside.

we are going to hit the trend line

and sell off...

I'm feeling like my "feeling is a contrary indicator"...

I need to take a walk.

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