Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Barrons

In FREE

Dan Chung of Fred Alger Management thinks more upside earnings surprises will help bring sidelined cash back into the market.

In PAID

The bull is still in charge, say America's money managers in our latest Big Money Poll. But it pays to be cautious, as bargains are getting harder to find. The case for Microsoft.

and for a little balance

In FREE

The end of the easy money.

Some sentiment

I'm trying to show some of the more "Neutral" perspective out there. that the Bearishness is not actually there.


here is someone I won't name:

YUCK!

The indices lost 2 ½%+ of their value on Friday.

The S&P has now given up nearly 2 months worth of gains.

This action keeps the Bowtie moving averages rolling over (email me if you need the Bowtie Pattern). This is especially true in the Russell 2000 (RUT-X or IWM). Plot it if you get chance this weekend (or watch yesterday' s chart show) and you'll see what I mean.

Be careful out there. I'm going to study things more this weekend and will likely have more to say on Monday.

From my analysis so far, it looks like we should continue to keep an eye out for possible shorts.

And, as usual, continue to honor stops on existing longs.


The day before there was some optimism from this person.

overall I would say that "They" have yet to sell this thing

Armageddon is at hand

See I say that, and the contrarian is looking for a bounce.



Roubini and david Rosenberg are.... scheptical....


What's more, economists are not traders or stock strategists. As a result, their perspectives on the economy are not meant to be market-timing devices for investors, says Carmine Grigoli, a self-described bull and chief investment strategist at Mizuho Securities USA. Grigoli argues that the bears may be proved right, but the question is, how long will it take for their views to come true?

The interesting thing is that; I know it sounds bearish. but still many traders are optimistic. I hear talk of resistance in the 1020 level. and plenty of "Hope" for the bulls.

I also... The interesting thing is that there are still a ton of people thinking the greater fool is ahead. As Steve Grasso put it today. "Even the Bears think we will be at 1100 end of the year". Let me also point out the universality of the "things will be bad next year".

I also heard about how we were trading on Q4, For those that see the market as a discounting and predictive instrument. The thesis is that it's forward looking to 6-8 months. Not 1 Quarter. So we should be trading Q1 And Q2 of next year, right now... or Very Soon!

So, sure I feel some bad mojo here, but as was debated today "either the 200pt bounce on thursday, or the 200pt decline or Wed or Friday.... is the Head fake." Bill Griffith said.... But he thinks it was the decline.

With everybody thinking the greater fool comes in at the end of the year..... I'm doubting it. and when it's apparent that the music has stopped, the chase for the exits are going to get very Crowded.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Pushing the range


We are very much pushing the range today... I have to point out that the bollinger band on the vix is just ahead of us.... It's a huge move in the Vix....


but I can put a 36+ target on the vix.

So....


Sentiment sucks here.... but the thing is the vix and the uup want to go "Wave 3" in an uptrend. and that means the market downtrend wants to go "Wave 3".


The vix is 27 or so... so if it keeps rising... that means the maximum range for the day is down 30 SPX on the day.

I don't mean to ..... Sentiment sucks but... they didn't know that yesterday...

Second time at the 50EMA

the Generic model is for a bounce then we come back at it and go through.

Twoud be Grimm!

If we couldn't perform some kind of assault on the 20ema

Nerd Stuff

Charlie Rose is doing a 12 part series on the human brain.Charlie Rose

Hedge the flag

Besides the issue with us having a Non Flag Flag(meaning a pullback from here, which is more Wunderbar than flag.)


we will see if at 11 we get some kind of uptrend... or if the downtrend continues.

but I'll look to hedge if we can get a higher intraday low, or if she looks stalled.

Flag

SO... I messed up the 3 domes and the house of jebus/Holy hangrenade post... The Python skit was supposed to be there. So if you didn't see it.... it's funny.....


and I'm kind of nerdy...

for a flag we need a pullback, then another push... I guess we can just have an upbar or something on the daily...

Concerning

I keep seeing people posting about the Post 1929 market, which had an oversold bounce then started diving again.


Not saying that is my concern, it's just that too many people are posting about it.

My overall thesis is that "This is not; the 2002 bottom, the 1974 bottom, the 1932 bottom, etc"... this is going to have it's own character.

Morning bell

Did they replace Erin with Melissa Lee......


If they did.... I see more Bloomberg in my future. It's unlikely I'll hold on, just to catch Mark's smiling face.

funny stuff from the chive



Extra points for knowing what the last one is!

Indicators

Umn... Quantifiable edges pointed out that the McClellan Oscillator went all the way out to -381.


Not only is it interesting but it's also interesting that QE pointed out something interesting.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

3 Domes and The House of Jebus!




Maybe it's 3 domes and the Holy Hand Grenade!

Here is the Rick Santelli Non Shooting Star pattern. Looks almost like a Hammer.


I will suggest that you stop the blog music and play this instead!

Frontruning month end

Everybody is chasing a Month end markup. I'd be nervous of a failure, since "Everyone is on it" and tomorrow is the Last day. Expectations are for it to go through the friday close, Which It may do. But let us also remember that, most the 401K money is moving into bonds and not stocks. Though with Dow 10K, a few people may have switched their allocations around.


I just wrote this as a comment... "Seems like everybody is looking for a Greater fool, Tomoorow"

If you are managing big money "The book" says Price-October-31 or Price Nov-1, But I think most say 31st.

What have we here


No chart of the market. I am surprised we didn't gap down this morning. Certainly Panic is not in. After 2 10% moves in the Vix, some retracement was certainly in order. I wanted to point out both in vix and the dollar, than the tenancy is to move above resistance levels then pull back below them before moving Higher. We will see, but I'm also not sure how it affects a Vic2B.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Terranova

Terranova-"2010 they are going to have a 6% yield on the 10Year."


So that means.... 8-10% for corporate AAA.... who is that going to bankrupt?

2010 people will beg for a 6% yield... I'd agree the corporate debt could hit 8-10%

but that is no good for stocks... and good news for Treasuries. I'll take The USGov. over comcast anyday..

Ok... back to my movie " terminator 8"... or whichever it is.

gap down in the morning, see if we can bounce off of that.

All Eyes

SO..... "The are all Talking about the uptrend"... and they want to find a bounce (a couple days)


what would suprise them is a Break of the uptrend, that goes "Trap" .... Enough to scare them, Then Bounce..... Then Fail.

But enough to scare the "Buy the 50" buyers, and the "uptrend" buyers..... It needs to scare them out, and get everybody bearish... Like another 20spx pts would do it..

Then we could have a Dead Cat bounce.

Maybe it will bounce off the 50... but I'm trying to give some analysis for some "Punishment" for everyone.

Grail Fail

So... we hit the 20, and sort of the 15-20(lt blue), If you call that a Grail, and are looking for the Fail.


The White is where "They" all have their stops. So if it can get past there all the stops should be triggered and we should Jump Higher. But you have to get in before it hits the stops.. so you have to watch for it to move back toward the (white) stops and get in Long, First. Then you scalp through all the stops

Just to hedge

it's still possible we will keep trending today, gap down... then bounce

50-ema

Thar... SHE BLOWS!!!!!

Why oh Why!!!

As I sit here, I wonder... Why is it that I dislike Melissa Lee so much.... is it just the Tone of her voice?


Is it a racial thing.... Maybe she is Korean and not Chinese... She looks Chinese, I'm not a big hater of the Chinese... Korean's are a different matter... It's all that time watching M*A*S*H*

I mean... Hell I even like Melissa Francis!.... and I'd totally Spank MCC

See.... I must be feeling better!

Complacnecy....

... I hate to say it. I've been out of touch Since last week. With my HamThrax((H1N1)h/t... to my 'EX-'). Which Yes, thanks for asking. I am feeling better. It hasn't been all that bad, and because I can lay in bed as much as I'd like, and have cupboards full of fruit and Soup.


Sot the Dow is down 30... and the SPX down 10... I need to find out what is it in the dow that is keeping it stronger... but it's a good indicator that Breadth sucks when the dow is stronger than the SPX...

The danger here is that I've been watching movies instead of watching the usual suspects on CNBC, But I just tuned in.
"We don't even have a correction here"
"Maybe some Profit taking"(not only is this that standard "profit taking" but it is being marginalized "Maybe" profit taking.)
"higher at the end of the year"

I haven't watched Fastmoney, and I also haven't checked out what rick said about the bond market yesterday. I bet both would be interesting.

The reason I had to tune in was because... I mean... SHIT we were down 10 after 4 days of selling... You would think they would be scared. But nope... they seem complacent.

but the 50 EMA is near, One would think it would be worth a fast flag....

Sounds like a Clean Top to me....

So... Back to "Star Trek"... seems like there are a ton of summer movies that I skipped. Apparently Spock is skrewing Uhura, Bones is ... well he has his bad moments, and of course there is some kind of Quantum time abnormality.

QE slope of hope

On monday they posted something about "Close on low" bounce within 3 days.


today they post Close lower 3 days in a row bla bla bla "higher in the next 10 days"

Let me say the 50 is coming up. and we should get a bounce...

This just reminds me of the study "Close down yesterday, Close up the next day.", I've never run it, but I'd say there is a 40% chance.

and sure 3 days down one day up... is hard to trade.


A chart

I was ... There is some resistance in here. the 50 and some trend lines.


Of course, that could be making traders complacent, and we could go through them like a hot knife, and surprise us.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Athletes and drugs

I was witness to another debate on drugs and Athletes.


The 2 major drugs are variations of Steroids or HGH, for Strength athletes, and variations of EPO for endurance athletes.

Certainly there are athletes that use both of these.

In the debate there was a discussion of how much different athletes are physically now that they were 30 years ago.

As an Athlete,but more of a Weekend warrior athlete, I feel I need to point out in the past 30 years our understanding of Science and nutrition.

30 years ago an armature athlete managed to choke down 3 raw eggs as a protein and vitamin supplement to help build muscle. Well, we are hell and gone from those days. Now an informed athlete regulates about every ounce of food that they eat, in regular portions to provide exactly the nutrients they need. We have supplements that make it possible to eat almost 80% protein every day, without trying to eat Steak or chicken for every meal, and having dinner twice, and sucking down thousands of calories of unneeded fat. Vitamins and the ability to add Vitamin B,D, and A. to ones diet, as well as other supplements allow an athlete to Very much push their bodies to Extreme Shape and Form. Both Steroids and EPO, just provide a shortcut, a sort of Hyper drive which is extremely unhealthy, Either supplement would be nearly useless without proper nutrition. It's our understanding of nutrition that has helped to push our athletes to these extremes.

Roller Coaster

bla bla bla....


Over the weekend I saw Real Economy with ben wattenberg.

Honestly there were some good things covered. Debt Surpluss andrew Jackson.

The amusing part is that it has the "old Kudlow Standards" Jerry Boyer, Ben Stein... it was made last summer. They pound the table about the old "This Recession is Media Created". Boyer also talks about how he invested in silver in the 80's and lost his shirt.
You realize when they were talking about it, the market was in the 12000's

One just remembers how these jokers said "There is no Recession", and now they sort of admit there was/is a recession, but it is media created.... Fast forward 6 months.. I guess now there is a recession but it's Government created.

Ostrich economics, Where do these assholes come from.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Compensation debate

just a quick rant.


I've mentioned this before so, same rant different day.

Most companies operate on "The Dilbert Principle", which to sum up; is the inverse peter principle. I kid you not, I've been in a hundred board rooms and a hundred Meetings with a Thousand "suits", I have yet to meet one in person who is worth a shit!. Ethically or Intellectually.

Jamie Worth every dime.
Loyd is worth every dime.
Mack worth some dimes.

But the argument that the top management in these shitholes like GE, AIG, C, and BAC. Even if you did't run it into the ground. How if you take on an ... Ethical responsibility, and assume that you will be rewarded in the future.

If I ran a company into the ground, I'd want to tough it out for 5 or 10 years. Out of pride. To get it back on it's feet. As a small business owner, anytime a project goes bad I've always been personally responsible for not making things right.

Seems like that is the difference between Wallstreet business and Mainstreet business.

penultimate

penultimate-


–adjective
1.next to the last: the penultimate scene of the play.
2.of or pertaining to a penult.



Can I go back to bed yet

or if I do will it pop back another 10spx
this was weird and kind of hot.

Hamthrax!!

I want to lay in bed and do nothing today... yet here I sit!


Just going to try and get through the day.

Preparation to hedge..... will be the phrase of the day.

I saw some great stuff on the nasa channel this morning...

can't I just watch that!

Why aren't I a physicist!

Thursday, October 22, 2009

earnings and employment

If you don't realize, what companies are doing is if they can't expand revenue, they fire people to make the numbers.


as long as wallstreet rewards them, they will keep doing it.... Till there are no employees left.....

so...

Still not out of the woods...


and if we get a higher high... guess what? we need to see the pullback...

but if we could get a dollar reversal that would be nice....

If I wasn't sick this would be funny

maybe it's only funny because I'm sick.

greater fool

Please please please... they say..... There has to be a greater fool out there.... there just has to be!!!!!


they will come in and buy them at the close..... I swear!!!!! Please please please I'll never trade again.

this is a Teresa joke!

looking for the inside bar

Lets start the Hope or puke!!!!

Breakout!!!! OMG... it's coming back on me!!!! Please Please Please..... Keep going up.... if you just keep going up.... I swear... I'll never trade again!!!!! I've tried to be a good person..... I don't deserve this!!!!

Breakout!!!!!!!

too bad the target is about there....


we will see... They are going to hate this.

Fountains of optimisum

Play the Flag!!!

20 on the daily

that was the 20... I'm not sure it will hold

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Lower Low

let us also add that this swing is significantly longer than the last 2 upswings

I also want to say

I told tony "V reversal spike low on the VIX"

not sure

if I said it to the blog or in comments or an email


but I said shooting star Candle today. Hot money looking to play musical chairs one more day.

they should puke them hard tomorrow.

greater fool

a ton of volume waiting for a greater fool.

in other news

I think I have the plague

I Just told tony something important


I figured I'd restate it. Yesterday, I knew the Peso didn't close on a new high high, it made a lower low, but didn't make a Higher high, it just toyed with its Range.

Point being it still needs to make a Higher High....

THEN THEN!!!!!! needs to make a higher Low.... It's still HELL AND GONE FROM a TECHNICAL DOWNTREND.

Lets also talk about the market, for all the "Looked like it was going to make a Lower Low" It didn't. It also needed to make a Lower High. It did Neither.
Certainly there is a chance that we will cliff dive after a top. but we need a Lower Low... then a Lower High...... and not aggressive but defensive until that happens.

the wedge

not saying we are going to the moon... but art cashin was talking the wedge today.


I just want to put the "Everybody sees it" Kaibosh on the pattern... of course who knows what it means. "the wedge".... what I'm saying is that I know what a wedge is, but i'm not sure what "They think it means"

Gunning for the highs

I was laying in bed... and missed the latest irrational move in the market...



blind leading the blind. er blind leading the stupid..... but it doesn't make me possibly wrong.

we need some dollar action!

Update.... I misspelled Gunning!... what else is fucking new

Another new test in the lows of the dollar

Weeeeeeee. I'm with tony on this nazdaq thing....


200 more pts in the spx and the economy is back to 2007!!!! WhoooooHOooooooooooo


Tuesday, October 20, 2009

GodZilla!!!!

ah oh!!!!

dollar bears be warned!!

Some notes today...

or snarks.


Of course CAT had a great quarter, the state is repaving every road in this city, and guess what the Tubby guys were riding on.... and CAT should do fine through all the stimulative spending.

Apparently there was top line growth, I'm trying to find the company but I think they sell antidepressant. LOL The next market leadership!

Windfall tax on banks.... as the Rain maker for the entire financial system... I think the Treasury is entitled to 10% of all Pre bonus profits, for 5 years. It's only fair risk = reward.

So...


The 60 20ema is not a buy btw which may not stop them... See if it wants to struggle with the 15. because it and the 5 are a sellNice bounce out of the Peso

ok

back to the trendline... see if the market can make a bump and go.


I want to say... My mojo says this is over! the worm has Turned... but like every Ex- and girlfriend I've every had, will attest to ' My mojo can certainly be off'.

The official Technical Call is "Wait for the pull back", then we want to see the first upswing. Then Trade off of it.

Some morning stuff

Seems unanimous


Carl says "if we can make it through today, we can....." I guess go to the moon.

unanimity in bullishness....

I guess it's the moon we go.
So, back at home base....

I'd expect the lemmings run in this morning, with the day trader money....

and hold their breath... and cross their fingers and Hope!

Lets see...

I would say... doug kass still isn't a bull.

Monday, October 19, 2009

pulled some of my hedge

well

there is at least another decent call I made... not sure if the 15 20 dma is going to hold.


seems like a new test of the 60 20dma is in the cards... and happens to be the uptrend from thursday friday.

damn... I should day trade... oh wait... I do and hate it.!!!!

TLT

Tony asked about the TLT... I said ... If I knew what the fuck was going on with treasuries I'd know what was going on with gold and the market too...


this is my old chart.... with a 105 ish ISH ISH target, I don't see any reason that it wouldn't still be a valid target.... ISH

afghanastan

2/3 rds of the votes in the afghan election "in question" or invalid


Sweet... so it's not like he just tipped the scales in the election.... it's more that nobody voted for him, and he had to cheat on all the ballots.

and of course we are not going to throw his ass out!
"People are disappointed, really disappointed," said Afghan political analyst Abdulhadi Hairan. "It will be hard for them to trust the next government."

which of course ruin's our credibility. if we can't sort this out ... I'm thinking cut and run. why waist time and lives if we are going to "fight for Democracy" and then hand the afghans to a dictator....

we are so fucking stupid!

I guess the point is

I found something to short... and if I'm wrong... I'll get blown out of that Too.

so

I think it's just going to run till the close..... Let me restate that "I Feel" like it's going to run till the close.


which if I ignore my emotions, and think to trade against them... this could be a swing high.

this just sort of feels like complacency.....

see if we can get

back to the 20

I can believe it and yet...

chasing this crap....

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"