Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Why I hate Candlesticks

I still need my number one reversal indicator... Doug Kass capitulation.. which is a 5 of 5 indicator for a pullback, even though the last one was minor. I'll try and keep us updated.I was trying to come up with an explination for today's Doji Which was basically just a standard continuation, small bodied upbar. Just to agree with all the Analysis of what an anomaly wed was, it's rare to see that big a gap up, then extend. It usually has to digest a bit. I want to remark that .. the great part right now is that we can track what "Everyone" is saying and fade it, Which is working quite well. Overnight I have done some reading and very much everyone is breathing a sigh of relief "Wheeeeeww, we made it through 10K... now we are safe.!"... Sounds Like game on again to me.... Meaning Here come the Bears!!!

So, this is what I'm looking for, which is that basically what we have is a Weekly Hanging man Candlestick forming. What I hate about candlesticks is that it indicates movement, but the problem is that sometimes that movement doesn't fit in the time frame of the candle and you get crazy candles.

So the bulls lost control early in the week and rallied back, which was impressive... but indicates future weakness. What we need is a day or 2 of consolidation. so either a pull back on thursday followed by one more "breakout" Leading to the reversal. I've sort of drawn 2 days of action on the chart, and compressed it. But I'm just talking about what to look for. It's possible that we extend, and extend. but sort of a pullback to 10K move up to 10,050 then we see a top.

I guess there is always the chance we start extending... but we can just watch and see how it plays out. Regardless of time frame, two days of sideways or even one with a friday morning spike.... then the weekly bar ends up being a nice sort of Hanging man. Then we pull back.

but like I said, we can just watch.

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