Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Friday, October 16, 2009

Game Theory


So... we know how the "higher High lower low" players play... and their breakouts.

and the Linda people.....
but here is a behavioral thing you may not know. We don't see patterns, or complicated patterns... the only pattern we see is that What just happened, will happen again today.

So they are thinking pullback into a long trade... So the monkeys can be right, but the trick is to leave the depreciating half crown to the other sucker.

5 comments:

Tony said...

We're below Wed's gap-up open and heading for the Wed LOD-- 108.26 -- this may flush out a lot of trend traders and Bradtke 20-ma bouncers.

Tony said...

Not sure how the "pinning" works on expiry*, but technically the Wed gap up looks like it has a 50-50 chance of filling.

*Assuming you mean option buyers will replace their holdings with front month positions and thus give a natural support/ resistance to the market.

Tony said...

XLF has filled the gap-- very bearish. GE and other bellwethers are collapsing. LQD looks terrible on the daily... canary on the coal mine.

Eric said...

Ya... my guess was we would flush out the "Breakout Players" who were in Puke or hope mode. Then we would get a bounce.

but, on expiration it's usual to open on a high, or have closed on a high on thursday, then sell off till the 11am.

then it bounces back about 50%... or to a "Pin" which is a whole number in a stock, so on the spy it was 108. Now what then happened is there was some closing Pukage... I believe because many people realized this was a wave 2 of a downtrend. roughly... so we had the selling.

btw T-lo hit them out of the park today

Eric said...

so pinning; it just sells off, then bounces back about 50% of the previous "Swing" on the 65 Minute say.

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