the friday session.. of course it's expiration...
smh was trying to push it... xle trying to push xlb....
umn... I have 2 models... one that says we go higher by 500 dow pts, one that is what I've been talking that ... Maybe that was the top... Maybe we have one more push. sort of give us a nice 3 push.... bla bla bla... But if we go higher I'd say we move back to the old highs, then have a sharp pull back.... then make our run...
It's skrewed up to do the same trade twice in 2 hours.... Once pre market then during the day..
that feels grim.... Let us watch to see if it is leadership, or if the xlf can overpower it.
spx came back to trend support.... bounce expected...
market is starting to realize that all the "Beats" are from cost cutting and that there is no segnificant unexpected growth or lack of loss.
CNBC corrected THEIR problem with futures... which also explains why futures were LOWER than they were reporting this morning....
I'm getting weird trading.... not sure what is up... maybe it's my feed, but this morning I had some trades down near resistance, and filled all my trades... That was as good as that scalp was going to get....
American Levi Leipheimer broke his Scaphoid yesterday... No more tour for him..
the 10 65 Min breadth is weak....
Which of course to me means, that there could be a 4 hour correction coming.
I intend to fade options Expiration a little...
and now I .... Hey I'm sorry I'm too don't give a shit to blog the hell out of this...
volume continues to be anemic.
so.... the thing you never hear on cnbc would be this brekout point and how important it is to hold it. Normaly one would look for a Head and shoulders top out of a Trade of last resort.
but the top nobody is ready for Might be.... between the breakout and the old high.
Oh... Not me...
Slept in..... OHHHHH HOW NICE... and good to see nothing has changed.
Can't get the pauslon hearing without.... cnbc overtalk
and I am starting to see some resolution to this move.
volume looks soft....
My non punt.... 2 corrections then top..
super excited today.... I didn't sell it but it felt "hard to sell" ... But the market has refused to correct, so the short side is dangerous...
So... I don't see a reason to play... Let the market fuck around here.... and let Y'all fuck around with it.
that overhead is 93... and some change.... But I'm tired, this move and Le Tour... and My riding... have me wanting to have a lie down.
I just want to throw money against goldman all morning..... F#@$ those Douchebags... but that is no way to trade!
Were are we... Morning gap up we look for the trade of last resort on this "Breakout" but there is still that chance of a pullback then the move to 93
Limited corrections today. new targets of 91.20ish and 91.40... 91.60 you also have this wedge....
Yesterday she was talking about how companies were going to step into the lives of employees with health care..... how if we get some of them to lose a few points... but that would impact McDonalds!!
Today it's all "they are going to tax us to death"
You can't tax a non existent middle class.... this is what happens when you have "Haves and have nots"
is the trade of last resort above here.... as people trade the 'Cup and Handle' break out funny though... that is a bottoming pattern... but you can call it an Ascending........
I talked about another entry.... what we had was an attempt at a "Bump N Go" Now... if we break 90.20... there is a chance we will go to 89.80... But it's possible today is just a Pause. and that then tomorrow we could again go to 91, and hit my target..... Then still have a 2 or 3 day pull back into another Up-leg to the 93 level.
For the most part.... it's just contingencies, and playing the "potential", and knowing when you are wrong....
Sure you can just be a Punter and randomly say "Long" and if it goes against you get out.... but for the most part your brain isn't going to let you do "Random"
"Yesterday we had the strongest day in the last 20 trading sessions; it was also the highest volatility day in SPY over the past 20 days. Since 2000, when that's happened, we've been up the next day 16 times, down 9 times. Not a significant bullish edge, but certainly not a bearish one. I'll be following up with intraday Twitter posts (follow here) and will update the charts during the day."
its not that I disagree, a strong trend day, tends to have some follow through. But I don't need to fuck around with a 20 day indicator to know that.... I also know that there is a 3 day tendency for more upside.....
but here is where the bias comes in.... is the 20 day story of yesterday... The story of Yesterday... Is it the story of the one day 20 point move on the SPX.... or is it the story of the 10 odd down days Vs the 10 up days... that moved us from 950 to 870.
If we have 5 more updays the 20 day story will be "Flat" .... I remember a day when we move 100 spx points.... Was that day the story of 1 day of strength vs 20 days... or was it the story of 10/13/07... and a 20 day 400spx decline.....
you have to look at the context of the move vs larger time frames. Because 20 days is no "Mean" it's a tiny sample.... and it's easy for one day to be more the story of the other 19 than it is the story of that ONE SINGLE DAY!....
This is where all these dipshit Financial types are Clueless... More Psychologist than Mathematician.. More Religious Zealot than Scientist.
and I'm not saying we won't go higher for a few days... but my point is this is USELESS ANALYSIS.... and more apt to be confirmation bias than anything.
Tony was just talking about "predictions" and Targets.... the thing is you are still playing risk management. and Trust me, I am Lucid to the fact that as far as exact numbers, I miss all the time.... But the trick is to know that the Swing is ending, and a new one is starting....
I don't know how long it will be. but I see the change in Character and trade accordingly..
so we are coming to my 91 target... but I'm not waiting till 91 to exit my longs.... what I'm doing is getting out of most, and not starting any new ones. and I'll tend to be FLAT!!! and looking for the Reversal. You arn't going to hit the top tick!! the point is to get "Much of" the move.
Always know... that you just can't hit it perfectly... stop trying... take what you get, and don't lose.
so here we are.. and there may be a chance of a Double top, but I doubt it... but one more move up and I'll look for an entry... if something else happens, I'll wait for a different entry...
