If you're short, I'm the sucker going long....

Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

This is my blog of my Financial Tomfoolery

I like to say that below is the list of things I speculate about that probably won't happen, and that I'm wrong about.

Not even I, drink my own Kool-aid, and neither should you.

IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR GOOD FINANCIAL PORTFOLIO ADVICE...
Teresa Lo, and InvivoAnalytics
in my opinion is the place to go
if you want
Real help.



Tuesday, February 9, 2010

There is your chart

That is a fairly weak C wave... or Weak Wave 3.


....

Oh! the DSI my sentiment indicator... I have to go 7 or 8 Tony was talking 11... but... I would say there are still 10-20% bears hanging on.

In Theory that number should just build until it goes 100% and shouldn't quite go to Zero Bears. With variations...

I do see some positive technicals.... But... *Shrug*

I also checked out Doug Kass, and he is Not too Long... and Cautious.

"Not too long not too short"..... he says...

Like I said, he could get bearish fast.

Running behind

I umn.... well we got my Fast flag...


I guess it could be something larger....

End of the day sort of looked like we ran out of Energy. I'd like to see an "Inside day"

We will see.

I'm way behind today, so... I'll try and look at the charts and read some sentiment sometime this evening.

Currently I'd give a DSI(sentiment number) of 6 or 7... It could be higher.

One more up day would get it Boiling...

but we will see.

What is that

I know I didn't post, but sentiment was very negative at the close. Dennis Gartman was on Fastmoney saying "oooohhhh Market Scary" everyone talking about no confirmation....


bla bla bla We will see if that will chance at today's close and we can get the bottom Callers back out.

And Fulfill the Fast flag.

Now sentiment is more positive... or negative sentiment is on the Wain...

Still... Maybe a bottom, or... maybe my Fast flag

Monday, February 8, 2010

I'm still expecting a fast flag

2-3-4 days/bars. So don't let that Asshole fool you talking about Dow 10K 3.0

At least she isn't reading off a teleprompter.

Right?



Did Palin write the answers to Tea Party Convention questions on her hand?


Tonight, former Alaska governor Sarah Palin spoke to the National Tea Party Convention in Nashville, TN,

bla bla bla.... I'll let you go over there and read it.

But thank god all those skills from Cheating on HighSchool Exams is coming in handy.

To be fair.. Big deal. But... it's good to bring up the teleprompter thing again. Cause the last thing you want is a president who reads a teleprmpter... get one that has shit written in pen on her hands.

Now the Trouble.

My big complaint is now I have to spend time Reloading... Which means more trading...

Sunday, February 7, 2010

DSI

Tony likes me to give a number to my sentiment indicator.


I remarked that we were at a 4 in the afternoon, then I thought a 7 by the close

Bearish to bullish... IN SENTIMENT... Not ... My Market Read. Sentiment being a Contrary indicator... though my own market direction can be sketchy.

I've been doing some review of the usual suspects, and we aren't as bullish as I thought we were.

I think I have to go with a 6. I have honestly not heard as many bottom calls as I have since friday at 2am...

Feels like, though there may be a bounce... there are quite a few people lined up to do the Bullish Rain Dance, this time.

Saturday, February 6, 2010

Clarification

Some People... seem a little freaked out. Which I find Valid, We should hate this market, and find it Offensive and Ridiculous... and just a nightmare to navigate.


This Isn't Fun!

I'm looking at the above swing, Marked in red. It is my Thesis that this swing is Over. That where I have marked with the Green Arrow, under the White lines. Is a nice "Trap". And it is going to "Ram It" up the Bears Ass...
For how long? I don't Know.
Where is it going? I don't know.
Here are the swings Marked out on the Daily. This way I can talk about the Intermediate Move.

Is the swing in Blue finished? I don't know. I suspect that swing is over. 70%
Is this Blue swing just wave A in a larger Corrective Pattern? I don't know. Probably 70%

Is the blue swing the entire Intermediate Trend?
These are my 2 concerns and the supporting evidence for this:
  1. THAT VOLUME WAS HUGE... We haven't seen 500Million spy shares since March. Not even the "little Correction" we saw in May/june(whenever) Traded that many shares. HUGE!!!!!!
  2. Doug Kass believes that is probably "The Correction", Now Doug is fickle. In 3 days or in 2 weeks, he could be Uber Bearish. It's also possible that he wants to "Pretend he was right", and Rain Danced from September Through Jan, He got his "Good Call", and wants to "Mark a Win". Even though it is a Pretend win.(No wonder he Twitter Blocked me.)(To give Doug his due, he suffers from being Definitive in the market. As opposed to all the "Hedgers"
How Significant is this evidence for an Intermediate Swing? I give it 50/50 as ... Significant... to put it in a phrase "It gets the Hair up on the back of my neck"

What does all this Mean.... I don't fucking know... I'm just trying to make money!

So... I think it is going to Bounce.... "Some kind of Bounce"... and some kind of bounce on the Daily.... 4 bar flag? Some kind of 3 week bounce?
Yes, this is what i think... somewhere from 4 bars to 3 weeks....

that is what I think.

maybe we move lower... maybe that was a bottom.

The best thing the bears have going for them, is that that was the most well called bottom EVER!

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"