Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Nothing against Laverkin

I missed making 10 percent today in DRYS. I was going to jump on end of the day.... but I'm just not getting my groove on, that and I thought I was Chasing the earlier gain. I was tempted by Csco... but.....

I've decided to move out of my usual Energy and basic materials plays, because I think we may see some return of the dollar. which will be bad for them both.

Toying with some banks, some bottom fishing, and Jeff Macky is on the other side of the trade, so I have to have a winner.

I got my after market nap.... WTF was I going to say...... See how bad this blog is...

"I would trade the rate cuts, for no recession"

hey dipshit, with no looming recession no rate cut..... The idea is they nullify eachother.

so, growth is stagnant at best, no m&a, financials mess. materials topped out......No more Fed..

Umnnnnn where are we going to get momentum

more on my broken fucked up crystal ball

Damn.... Don't know why... but it's all cloudy. cant figure out if I want to buy drys or short financials. or both.........

I'm just thinking I'll stay firm.

gameplan

So I'm sitting here trying to figure out how to play this if it goes bad... and I have no idea. I also have no idea how the play the other side.......

I should lay up.

have I mentioned the broken crystal ball....

Damn, people want oil, as crude just keeps exploding up.

I need to do some shit.

Interesting numbers this morning... GDP is fine, .... employment sucks.. but is livable

The fed shouldn't cut, and it should be fine. .....

the worst part of the whole equasion is the weak dollar and oil and gold.....

Fuck I hate this economy... which is aparently OK...

for some reason this has thrown my crystal ball off.

drys

Some bullshit about lower rates for shipping next year..... Who falls for this stuff. I'm thinking some tight stops.

I'm tempted to jump into the premarket, also CSCO .... hmmm

the fed is going to cut.... My powder is so damp these days... I'm just chicken shit.

game plan

Not realy sure here... I'm thinking about shorting oil or materials....if there is no cut.

Not sure what to do if we bull... a .5 and I'll go long materials(mining, and not gold).

.25

I'm toying with csco...also drys dryships

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Damn

Sorry, long time no post... I think.

Bulk shippers, basic materials, oil. all down today, they have had one hell of a run over the past days....

The bulk shipping tempts me.

umnnnn.

Game plans:
Fed cuts.... Long nasdaq
fed doesn't cut... short materials. or oil.

fed is going to cut, with a weakening of credit, that is a good reason for them to cut. I think they need to hang the owners of asset backed paper. Yes they are lying about their exposure, and you can't mark that to market... Unless we get another good 1-2% drop in bond rates.

Monday, October 29, 2007

Monday

buy 500 gallons of gas.

Buy 50 pounds of wheat.

Put money into Eruo's

Doug kass says the consumer will drown us all.... $5 gas will get us first. Going to see millions of Suburbanites, talking about how they can't afford gas.

but good news the nasdaq is going to 5000

That is $600 a month for somone who buys 30 gallons of gas a week $480 at $4 gas. from $312 now.

I have to keep remembering what a bunch of dumbfucks there are in the market
Usually they are just a little smarter than I give them credit for.

Maybe this will be the big blow off.

Tumor

For hell's sake, then NASDAQ futures are up 20 already....

Fucking bubbly... but I want in on it.

Like everyone knows, no control as to how far it can run, maybe Aapl can get to 160 P/E and Rimm. Get Csco, and MSFT up to 60 P/E, Let Google hit 1000,

Jesus, anyone seen history repeating. WTF

U.S. Dollar, new low... Whoooo Hooo... 100 dollar oil by the end of the week.

Friday, October 26, 2007

Fess up

Well, One can say, that today was fairly bullish for stocks. Here is something I know, there won't be any short interest in the market on fed day.

This stuff is tough for me, I have a hard time getting bullish on stocks with 90 dollar oil. I should buy bonds for 30 days and go on vacation. These times are just rough... I remember when oil would go up 50 cents and the market would trade down. Oil almost hit 92, bringing gas with it.

I'm much happier without watching CNBC.

This is just a tough trading environment.

When the market gets like this, I feel like my compass is spinning out of control.

does that goldman guy on cnbc know any adjectives besides:
phenomenal
blockbuster
Blow out

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Coined a new Phrase today.... "5 Gallons of Gas is going to be this years big X-mas Present"

Tips for bears

So, you put 5 or 10K down short on the decline, wait for a good stall. cover half... on a decline. Then put your stop in half way back up on the return. Regardless your going to have little effect, your a fly on the shoulder of some Huge ass firms, kicking the market around. It's like being long only inverted.

I've stopped watching cnbc for the most part, it was giving me a headache...

Bloomberg kills me,

DUDE on Bloomberg "AAPL is trading at 50 P/E Rimm at 40P/E... Do you think that with MOT at 25 the market has let it get undervalued."

(all the numbers I made up, but you get the idea)

Maybe I posted this, Second best thing I heard today... this was on cnbc, some analyst came on and said "I hate to break this to you bunch of morons and CNBC(aparently this ranks lower than moron), but average america doesn't make 200K, so they don't give a shit about the AMT."

Or something like that.

I literaly laughed and choked to death.(I have a little sinus thing today.)

It's time.

So, It's time to start aggressively day trading this market. I've got my short positions set up, for "the big fall"... but I need to start aggressively making money intraday.

ooohhh look the dollar sucks again



Wall street hangs it's coat on higher P/E ratios to justify "Higher Highs".. I am going to get serious about intraday shorts today.

futures are high, we may get a big jump at the open and for the first hour or so.... Then we will see.

I was reading about the Types of traders, Unfortunately I'm either the "tail between the legs kind" that thinks every trade is going to hell. or the one who sees it as gambling..... I like educated gambling...

None of that doesn't mean it's not going the other way....

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Tomorrows short trade

in the morning there will be some strength as suckers buy the market. Then About 30 minutes before the housing numbers (yes, there will be new housing numbers) you place a short position. As the market sells off you place your stop where the sell off began, at about 11-11:30 eastern, you cover half, then move your stop up to between where the sell off happened and the current position. Then you wait it out......

Shorting the market.

I've seen a lot of tough talk about how hard it is to short this market. I know it's hard, but it's like going long. Instead of looking for weakness to buy, you look for strength to sell. Since the last "all time highs", there are no buyers in the market. Every time we get close we sell off, because no one believes in this market. The 3Q earnings were based on a strong economy, as company after company misses unless it has international exposure, the fundamentals of all the companies weaken, The P/E's are too high. Even if the fed cuts... This market can't go higher on imaginary earnings, we may get a short covering jump. but that will be it. there is nothing for this market to hang it's hat on, besides higher P/E's.

As the sell offs get stronger and longer the shorts will be better and will be more willing to hold the short positions overnight. Till then if your chicken, wait for a bit of strength then short, if we get stronger cover, if you short into some early parts of the pull backs then as they get stronger and stronger, just cover mid day if you have to, take your profits. Shorting is Neutral to the market, you have to sell and buy, it takes people actually selling their equities to make the market go down. This pull back is about 20% into it IMHO, so there is plenty to gain from shorting. but you have to be strong. But if you wait till we pull back another 60% your going to miss most the move, then there will be a rally and you will barley make any money, cause instead of selling that rally, you will be covering for a minor gain.....
This bullshit with, "Fed Cuts" and other ways the Bulls get you to cover, just take advantage of the Timid nature of the Bears.(is that a fare way to say your a bunch of pussies.). The Fed Kicked your ass twice, because the market(credit market) was going to Freeze up, or had frozen, and they had to cut, but the short sellers covered, and that momentum was used to Rally for a few days. Then when the fed cut .5 again there was a short covering rally, using the momentum of "stronger earnings from a weaker dollar" we rallied again. Suddenly as earnings came out, those earnings weren't so good, because input costs were higher, and lots of companies had higher input costs and no international dollar exposure. In the short term Fed cuts are bad for U.S. Companies. Bad for the Dollar, the only good thing is that it makes it easier for companies to borrow money, and for people to buy houses. Long term, it will help.
Without the European union cutting, or the credit markets locking up, I can't see the fed cutting. Also.... If the fed cuts we will get fears of Hyperinflation as gold goes to 1000 and oil goes to 100. It's funny how that catch 22 works in the favor of the bears....

The laws of supply and demand, with most the money going into bonds, and few buyers at these levels... Who aren't short sellers.
This market needs big earnings to push it forward, not higher input costs. This market is done down to the august levels, if not lower..... Sorry, Game over.

In a Declining market Traders sell the strength, instead of buy the dips. Besides buy aapl and google and a handful of other stocks, your only choice is to jump into crowded trades.

Market Commie Downie.... unless someone can explain to me how in a weakening U.S. Economy, 70% of which is consumer driven, Which then drives Asia.... SOMEHOW the Bulls think that this means earnings are going UP. The only bulls left are the Perma Bulls, and they are as stupid as the Perma Bears that hide in the basement with piles of gold, bullets, and 3 years of freeze dried food. This is all dumb shit, based on momentum traders, and people who don't see the fundamentals, and can't see overall market moves.... EVEN BUFFET was saying we were in for some "Shakyness" for a few years.
Further more, the weakening dollar has more to do with a weak economy that printing money. The dollar fell more on the credit crunch than when Uncle Ben dropped money from his Helo... LOOK IT UP. The Fed Equity was sucked up by the European banks, as they issued bonds for that money, pulling it off the market, and into European Liquidity. so that they wouldn't call in the note from all our loans. Er something like that.... I'm not an economist.

but get short this fucking market.

More dumb shit

Floor Trader:

"like .... it's not that the fed has anything to do before the 31st, I just don't know why they don't cut now."

I heard a smart thing.

If you adjust the S&P for the weak dollar, it has traded flat for the year.

(point being you would be better in the Euro than in the S&P this year. and if the fed cuts, it will be even more true.)

I should create a blog about the dumb shit said on financial channels.

One days ago that still resonates is "The VIX has broken out of it's down trending trading channel, So I think that Volatility will come back." This of course after a 200 pt decline in the Dow.

so what he is saying is that now that the volatility index is high, there will be volatility.

Let me just add that now that oil is trading at 86 dollars per barrel, I think that oil will be sold for 86 dollars per barrel.

Another good one today was.
"it seems like we have a trend now of 5-10% corrections, and then we trade to all time highs, so you can safely dip buy anything."
....
Dude, one time is not a Trend, and with all the "Dip Buy" talk I hear. I think that is over. Further more.... In an uptrending market you can buy the dips, But in Downtrends you want to Sell Strength, It's roughly the same trade but the oposite... But you do have to see the trend.

Hehehehee Cramer just said "Sell Appl" and RIMM, Also with his outright sell sell sell on AMZN. That shoots 3 of the 4 horseman of the Apocalypse....... With him saying "Take profits" repeatedly over the past week..... Guess what market is going to test the lows?
Especially with him being the asshat who started this "Tech RUN" with stuff about how strong the Cap-Ex, cycle in business this year would be.....

Speaking of trends....
When housing Keeps getting worse showing no bottom. How do I know this? When in a downtrend and the numbers get worse, it takes the bad numbers getting better, declining in their decline. so, when that happens, we are in the middle of the decline. So, if we have had declining housing for 1 year, we will then decline for another year, and hit bottom. Now that it's been going on for 1 year, at best housing will bottom in a year.

Another Trend.
6 months ago
"everything was great" Liquidity was fine.
3 months ago
then we have a problem with liquidity. then it was well the economy is strong
1 month ago
The economy is weakening, but the consumer is strong, global strength is fine.
1 week ago
The economy is probably in a recession, but the consumer is slowing, and global strength is fine

Anyone see a pattern....

and BTW no one wants to buy those fucking CLOs. and when they say no one, they mean europe and asia.

And FUCKING cnbc
"dow down 1.5%"
"S&P down 1.5%"
and Nas up 15% for the year.....
WTF kind of Apples to Tomatos are they running.
BTW Nasdaq big loser on the day at the time down 2%...
but do we hear "is the Tech run over?"

quiakidy quack

Good news, Naz is looking to cuagh up over half the gains from yesterday on the open. Ouch, I'm swearing off CNBC except squawk box, Cause Joe keeps them in line. Steve makes me think he is a puppy looking for a pat on the nose, and some of the stuff he says. He made this decleration today about how the fed was going to cut .25. I swear it ended "and the fed will cut .25" like it was a press release.

I like to hear from the CEO's and buffett, who are so well grounded, gives me hope for corporate America. they say "I don't know" so well.

Buffett was like "Ya... The U.S. Economy will be fine in 5-10 years. I don't know about 3-6 months".

I have been enjoying Bloomburg, it's easy to ignore and doesn't give me a tumor.

Oh and my prediction, though I'm not going to watch it, steve will see the housing number and say "MY GOD, you just can't imagine that this isn't a bottom"(double negative intended)

I am going to continue my week off, letting these shorts ride, and pay just a little attention to them.

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

laws of supply and demand

If there is one truth in "mother market" it's the laws of buyers and sellers. The flight to quality means that "no one wants equities". 6 months ago, every day institutional investors would flock in every day and buy up equities, People keep asking "where is the volume". as you see the falling bond yield curve, at the 2 and 3 year level. even at these levels it's obvious where the money is going.
The obvious thing to me is that the music has stopped, and it's just a matter of time before the slow money realizes it, and runs for a chair.

I've re initiated some smaller short positions.

com'on market give it up. the other options are so much darker.

Gave it up in the premarket

havn't seen a move like that out of the nasdaq since last time I was short that fucking thing.......

I'm taking the day... if not the rest of the week off.

I hate the market

So many great companies are effectively on sale, relatively speaking..... and yet they motor lower, and guppy shit like appl is unstoppable... btw, they had a good quarter, nothing to justify a 50 P/E. but doesn't' mean they arn't going higher.
every company is saying the same thing.... The U.S. sucks and international is great. that will end. I get so sick of hearing the music stop, for some reason all the morons keep going. I swear to god the minute I stand up, we will reverse.
and ya, this economy could go in the toilet and guppys will still buy Iphones.

I'm trying to stick to the gameplan, in the face of the beating I'll take this morning..... but who the hell knows..

God has taken an interest in getting rid of some of the California real estate.

Keep my dick under me... catch a nap.

Dear Larry Kudlow

Just to start, I'm a huge fan. you have this impressive ability to get 2 people(or more) together and have what seems like a civilized debate it's impressive.

The reason I write this is to bring to light how absolutely offended I was when there was a clear line between "investor class" people, and guys just suffering working at the local gas station, or walmart, or best buy. And the super elite investor class of our society. I have no doubt you are out of touch with the "Peons" and "Untouchables" of this economy, that you try and carry the banner for.
As you tow the line for the Uberclass, those people making 95 percent of the money in this economy, and who are just tragically offended to have to pay 80% of the taxes. I hate to inform you that those taxes provide the infrastructure ... The decaying infrastructure, of this country. That allows commerce to happen, that the "uberclass" profit from. Those taxes and debts we wrack up provide you with a war, to protect the oil interests of this country. I find it unpatriotic that you refuse to pay your fair share of the taxes in this economy.

As Leeches sucking the life blood of their host, the Uberclass needs to wake up to the realities of this economy. YOU CAN ONLY SUCK SO MUCH BLOOD, BEFORE THE HOST AND THE LEACH DIE. Those Peons, and untouchables, working at Fudruckers, and best buy, and who languish inside as you quickly have your gas tank filled without the uncomfortable confrontation, with the reality of this economy. Those people making 5% of the wealth paying 20% of the taxes.....(honestly I'm being dramatic.. what is it the uberclass make 90% and pay 80%. and the peons have 10% of the wealth and pay 20%)... Regardless, one group is paying 8/9 as a ratio and the others are paying 2/1. I know your a smart man, and know this, Know that one group is paying as a percentage of their income over 2x as much in taxes as the uber class, and this doesn't even get into sales tax. I know you are aware of this, and you continue to perpetuate and try and increase the imbalance. As people go day to day without insurance, barley able to own a home. Stupidly leverage themselves to the bone. You are there to Leach the Remaining Blood from their system, I know you are aware of this, and honestly you just don't care.
Unfortunately, this will hopefully end over the next 10 years, and the underclass has been squeezed and will start fighting back, As you push them into inner city squall er, and servitude to their corporate masters. You will force them to escalate into increased violence which will infest our cities, and make America, the ugliest story never told. Their children unable to get reasonable health care, as they bleed and die in the streets. I know, I'll hold you responsible, As Europe and asia, surpass us in their ability to be civilized, and give us the ass whooping we need. So that you can learn the lesson, that the Lifeblood and engine of our economy are the little worker Bees, that show up and go to work every day, and deserve a decent paycheck and some security in both their retirement, and day to day quality of life.
It's morons like you that do, and have pushed this economy off a cliff(again), with your tax cut, self serving crap. sometimes I wonder if it's all on purpose. Do you laugh about it in your private moments? As the Right wing of this country Tax the country into massive debt, and place the squeeze on the poor. Leaving the mess for better people to clean up. It's childlike behavior, if you don't realize.

Didn't your parents hug you enough as a child?

It's time for Goldylocks to die, hopefully to be reborn, something new, something real. something that will feed and cloth the families in this economy. She was Broken and cancerous, from birth, never really had a chance, we should have put her down at birth.

The first decade of the 21st century was the economy of the......."housing bust"

Monday, October 22, 2007

Gam Plan

I expected some kind of bounce. Just not off the open.... I know better than to buy the open.. and I'm still kicking myself. the futures looked too grim at 6pm on sunday... and I couldn't let go
I feel like ruprict the monkey boy


I had 2 plans against my Nemesis the Nasdaq. first was to just throw at it at the open, second was to wait till the aapl noise was over and hope the bears take it then.

Alright going to stop kicking myself.

I'm an aggressive guy, and well, I was on a streak, 4 winning trades in a row, even what I sold on Friday was a win, not as much as I'd have liked but, better than if I had held on, and it's not like I've even lost money off of that trade yet.... Ok with the apple earnings I'm down... maybe a buck fiddly. I like to see apple only get a 5% pop

First I hate the NASDAQ.... hate it, hate it, hate it, the fact it leads this rally just kills me. My theory was that it was showing weakness in the past week, and my downside is still only like 2 more bucks to new highs.

as my Nemesis... it has a good shot at me... Why does that imbecile on fast money talk about the technicals of the VIX

I like aapl getting only a 5% bump maybe 7% as a mean. usually larger in the post market than on the day... Com'on profit taking....

Game plan is that if I can't get a good post earnings pull back, I will retreat and pull back. my gold miner got pummeled today, glad to know I got out.

I wish this had played itself out differently but this is the game plan and I'll stick to it. I knew this was a possibility, stick to the plan... and I'll probably lose money.

Though I've talked about this trade alot, I try not to talk about them.... as it goes the problem is when you talk about it you get your pride involved, then either you scare out too early, or you stick with it to long....

I'm not sure how to quantify the profit taking. in aapl.

more of the carnage

My theory was I'd be up 3 or 4 bucks, then end of the day and with earnings in aaple I'd lose 2 of the 4 or 3, then the profit taking would take hold..... it was dumb risk management btw... more greed for the extra bucks.

Un-known by the bulls is that the flight to quality will still be there.....

I expected the bounce in the evening.

Reminder.... never buy the open.............Never buy the open....

if I hadn't, I bet I'd be long.... I have to remember keep my dick under me. Neutral trading....give it to the 5dma

Reminders of things I knew already

Never buy the open, you can limit sell the open, but never buy the open.

Remember how weak the sort seller are.... Personaly, I think this open was short sellers against short sellers..... funny how it's a double edged sword for short sellers.

I think if I hadn't baught the open I'd be buying into the reversal..... it looks weak though...

oh, and now I want to tell the fly what a monkey fuck he is.... he is just going to lose money and get locked up again... Cramer just said to "nibble on this market", lets see if that enough to get it to sell off.

wow... $20 change in gold since thursday.

Ok, going to see some pain .... Fucking nazdaq

took 7 minutes to fill my order this morning. comon nasdaq die

Interesting

I figured I'd post to my blog instead of .... reading others. The Internet slowed down quite considerable over the past hour, it's trying to come back. it could just be some overnight maintenance. wow, weakness out of south America.... interesting.

I read some of the hate full shit over at "the Fly", it makes me embarrassed for those people. I also think the fly isn't as bullish as he shows. I also think that some of his broker friends slide him "Tips" and "red herrings" for the "Internet fucktards".

all the world markets are chasing the 2.5% loss of the U.S. markets. Till we open and look like we could give back 5 percent. I think today will be the big day for losses in the near term, with my posted targets.... 200% retracement from the initial fed move.
I was looking at the 100 year chart of the Dow, and was thinking about the downside of this move being at most 11,000.

One other thing, Part of the reason I like this move in the market, is because I hate this economy. We have millions of people working at "Fudruckers" tons of Fat Americans. I'm just hoping that out of the ashes something better rises.

One scary thing to me was how quiet about it Cramer was, and his overall message was "take some proffits"

this is a list from best performing indexed ultrashorts from friday.

twm-r2k
mzz midcap400
sjh- r2k value
rew- technology
skk- r3k growth
sdd- smallcap 600
sdk- russell midcap growth
sds- sp500
dxd dow 30
sfk r1k growth
qid- qqqq
sjl - midcap value
sjf r1k value

These are the outperforming ultrashort sector plays.
sector
dug- oil and gas
srs-real estate
skf-financials
ssg-semiconductors
sij-industrial
srew-technology
sdp-utilities
smn-basic materials
scc-consumer services
szk-consumer goods
rxd-health care

As i read about the Hannah Montana tour this weekend, and some Brittney updates. it made me think that all the good music has been killed by the pharmaceutical industry.

Ok, time for a nap.

Saturday, October 20, 2007

The Questions

Walked away with some slight gains today, I'm sick of:
1/3 slight gains
1/3 loss
1/3 fare gains

Caught a little behind the curve today. Honestly I bailed after the first leg down and we didn't look like we were going to reverse.

My usual impulse is not to run, but when the market breaks down, I tend to lose a ton waiting for the reversal.

I guess my better game plan is to wait for reversals, instead of trying to be ahead of the curve.

Bullish:
this would be the end of a 5 day pull back.
Bearish:


Based on my old theory that we have to give back a 200% retracement from the fed move.
Targets are:
144 SPY or 1450 on the S&P

2510 on the naz

13050 on the dow

Lets talk about the 5 year bull.

23.6% retracement is 12500 or roughly the august low.
38.2 Retracement is 11500 or roughly the march high.

*work in progress*

Friday, October 19, 2007

Quick update

Goldilocks foot found in...... Claw marks found both on foot, and in area

developing......


Good Job! the market figured out that there are some real problems.... Not sure what they are, but apparently they are affecting the consumer......

Suspects:

  1. inflation
  2. falling home equity
  3. low paying service jobs
  4. high insurance
  5. high gas prices.
  6. shadow financial market(don't ever talk about fight club er... the Shadow financial market)

Shady character "sub prime" wanted for questioning.


I'll wait till more denial kicks in, and short some more.

Till then... some sleep.

sigh

took some profits and will now be short the consumer.

why tech will hold up is delusional.

Where it's at

seems like it's all international mining, the conglomerates and industrial are getting unfairly killed, they need a 5% correction..... Going to see a 15% correction is my call. They will be buys. Joe is freaked out... all the old guard who are having Vietnam like flashbacks.

Morning debate

Weak Dollar.

damn. that is a skanky open... and BTW this is a new leg down, unless we reverse by the afternoon.... I'm thinking this is nerves like I had this morning.... My holdings are hanging on.

IWM has found support

spy is back above the 30 day MA and found support

but these are new lows in the near term.

dow stil no higher high.

qqqq still no low

overnight jitters

I'm glad to see the morning trading, gives me some prints to see what is going on. I'm up big... regardless of the old timers talking about getting short on October 19.

How the nasdaq can be up 4
and the dow can be down 50

Just trying to get the first print, either up or down big... Options... probably better they are down. I hate to see all the lame options end up "in the money"

going to try and grab a quick nap before the open.... my gold miner is up on an upgrade this morning... regardless that GS has a price target nearly 40% up from where it is.

The 4am thoughts

I ummmm, got a little sleep....

keep my dick under me.

I was going to switch my stop to a market sell, but there was a server thing that stopped me.

I figured if I was being superstitious about the date, I should be superstitious about the synergy of the sell.

the nasdaq is only down like 3 now.
s&p down 7
dow down 40

we just need Joe and Becky to calm things down.....

my hubris about picking the reversals get's to me too.

I can't imagine We will get through the day without a gut check....

I do need to come up with a killer game plan.

and Asians are tragically superstitious, if you asked them about the sell off today, they would say "our ancestors told us to"

Climbing the Mountain of worry.

My trader skills are 2 fold.

1. My math skills, logic skills, technical skills are unreal. I can see the patterns in the trading and for the most part, it's absolutely second nature to me.
2. I can "smell" the market psychology. the shifting moods and constant swings from Fear to Greed .. I don't know.. I just tend to hit them just right. +/- one day.

Last Friday I went straight to cash, and just waited it out. I knew we were in for a down leg and wanted to be "ahead of the curve" I figured we would have one more small up day. Well we traded slightly down on Monday, I was surprised. we also tend to trade in 5 day cycles, and that was more like a 3 day downtrend, and Thursday was a weak up day... which is normal... But....

here is the thing, if we are in a 3 day up cycle, we should be up in the premarket, and up big, 30 pts in the futures minimum...
If it's a 5 day up cycle, hopefully we don't start day 2 of that cycle down 30... but 50? that is sketchy.

Well we are down 70... That is bad, and it was barley midnight my time(Mountain) when that happened.

We were down 17 pts at one point on the nasdaq, currently down 14
s&P down 7.2

when you look at yesterday most the sectors were up, energy was weak, but.... it's been up.

THIS JUST ISN"T LOOKING GOOD.

but maybe I'm just freaking out cause of the date.

the unemployment numbers weren't great
highest in 7 weeks isn't a legitimate number to get my panties(not actual panties) in a bunch.

the 3 month mean of the nonfarm payrolls is not bad, not good...

The Asian markets are not doing well... except china which is sort of flat.

another thing I said. was if there was an international event, not just rumor or saber rattling, I'd be gone... Does this bombing in Pakistan count?

There is no reason, but as nervous as the markets have been, will this finally be the straw that breaks the camels back.

WE NEED SOME GOOD NEWS..... i'm thinking if we are down more than 50 I'm gone.

watch it be down 51 or 49..... grrrr...

The positions i'm in, I'm fine if it "Rains" but I think I'm not insured for "earthquakes"... or "flooding"... I'm not sure what that means.

I'm looking with my biggest position in an inverted triangle which is 1-4 days of it's break out, 5-6 dollars of break out....

Like I said... Cliff of worry... er mountain.

I always have to remind myself "Keep your dick under you".... Whatever that means.

Maybe at 4am.. My time, becky quick will calm everyone down...

I can cash out and be fine... I can lose the 3 bucks per share I've gained in 2 days.......

I put a stop in.... see how I feel in the morning. 2 hours away.

this is how I make mistakes. and it's always fridays too. Like the long drag of the week finaly gets me.

I just need it to rain and not pour.

It's these fucking Europeans, fuckers constantly talking about 87 and convinced it's comming... I want to punch them.... grrrrrrrrr

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Looking for the head and shoulders out of the qqqq, Manic google. and some profit taking. then a failed move next week....... OR Not!! going to need a move to 36.5 or 37

Could be a double top. based on today's White hot action. or not, not a double top, not white hot. The transports make it obvious that this rally is for suckers.. if your holding lots of stuff long, time to get out of U.S. sensitive/consumer names.

I'm punching the next person who says Bubble....

Air is getting thin....

Ugh..... I'm so tempted to cash out.... mostly my boy rick santelli is throwing the wall of worry. The rate cut nonsense will keep us up. Wall of worry on my end, I'm just looking at a 2-4 dollar break out hopefully followed up with 6 more bucks of strength.

then the gold miner.... good to the fed.

I'm going to read the beige book

did I just read unemployment claims went up?

some postition and my market view

I believe in yesterday as a market reversal, good way to curse it.

I don't seem to post positions much, Umnnn It tends to curse it, I'm not superstitious, and I read something about not talking about your positions to people. mostly because once you tell people, it becomes personal, you can get your emotions involved and not call the loss fast enough or run from a good position of of fear of getting shit.
Yesterday as I suspected the reversal, I took a ton of weak dollar positions, basic materials, gold miners.
As we get the Hyper-inflation debate, and the Fed cut-no cut debate. these should kill it. I may stay in these positions as long as they win, up till the fed. I may not play on fed day. I suspect the bear will start that day or the day after.

Regardless the trend will be set that day, and I'll go either direction.

I'm starting to see the buyers come back though, it's good to see when your long.

LIBOR down Yippee for me now that I'm long
4.841

Peso Euro... Er Dollar Euro 1.4309 overnight low

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

The Bubble debate

I read some retarded bubble debate. ok it's fucking stupid. the only question is if F P/E's are correct. based on what we know, they are. but if the economy takes a downturn... they wont' be, and stock prices will go down... Because earnings wont' be there.

a bubble would be if say... for some reason we decided that the P/E ratios of speculative stock was currently at 60 P/E and we decided it should be valued at 30 p/e

Posted this to El Fly

Not going to get the bull back till someone stuffs and mounts that Steve Liesman and those NTRI needing legs on the squawk box table as a sacrifice to "Mother Market"

if your not noticing, with the exceptions of "The Shorts" we are running out of buyers. Don't worry they will run the market up and down for a few more weeks... or days... when is that anniversary of 87?

No worries, I'm still long the market, I know the bulls are to stupid to know how much trouble we are in.


(the last part I edited out)

this is my thesis... the shorts right now provide a ton of upward support on the market. Notice you don't see a ton of people going long.... *DING DING DING*

BTW I'm long, but I'm looking for the head pattern....

That eternal Stock Chaser "john najarian" propped up the "bull" case.... Honestly buddy, Not that i don't like you if you google this. but you chase... it's what option monster is.... I'm sure you coin money... but it's just not an investment strategy... and it's not something I want to encourage in my trading...
Point being he said "I don't think we realized the extend of this housing problem." ya you didn't look into it, and your still not looking into it.

REALIZE, the housing market is "The KNIFE" and we keep catching it. The mantra is "Don't catch the Knife. and we keep doing it. there is no bottom yet in that market. Till it is, the U.S. market is in free fall.

But till you Retards realize this, I'll still keep buying you people catching the knife, and selling the tops... I'm absolutely coining money day after day. but it's starting to look like the "Shorts" have control, wait till they decide to take us to hell.

Till then I'll keep coining money, and looking for the head part of the pattern.

Indications of "the top": big breakdowns of the IWM. Breakdowns of the consumer names. A crowded trade(more than already) of the "Recession stocks" (consumer non cyclical) (utilities) or/and inflation/weak dollar plays(materials, gold, conglomerates, energy).

expect the big debate to be (inflation/weak dollar/fed cut) after the fed... all bets are off. Either the fed "saves us" and we go into fear of hyperinflation or the fed doesn't and we tank.... nice to see the other side of the catch 22.....

Well Libor is down

The peso... er dollar is weak but not a new low. High part of the low range.. whatever that means.

Hurt my finger somehow... probably tension... I got some good sleep, even some nightmare.. some classic movie kind of nightmare, Kind of being blind and kicking the shit out of the little kid from "The Grudge"

but back to my lowsy trading, I was on fire last week, So far this week... weak stuff. Cause I wasn't short the market.

Umnnn....umnnnn I got so bullish yesterday... it scared me... one of those... there is a shoe out there ... Somewhere kinds of things..

In case someone reads this... I'm a total bear... Lucky I don't have a pile of wheat and some firearms.

I think I'm just still exhausted this morning.... Waffles..... that will help

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

GamePlan

Looks like a good day to short cover.

So,I'm looking for panic

Maybe csco, fwlt, RIO

Aparently the new OS X from apple... Rumor is... Cures cancer... Again...

Oh, the oil traders are full of shit... they are trying to create enough fear in the market today... All with big fat smirks.... Right... going to war with Turky

none of it doesn't mean there won't be more fear tomorrow.

Saturday, October 13, 2007

9pm trying to go to bed

I doubt anyone reads this blog, since it's mosly for my venting and stock nonsense....

I killed it last week, and I'm super psyched for the next. That pull back in the nasdaq, is just the first chink in that armor... how many times will it make new highs......who knows, but it's weakening... The real tell will be when we get a bunch of upward, abnormal momentum to the upside, made by the bears... that is how i envision the top. I'm super defensive. We should have some great upside still, I'll play it day by day.

So, I'm in this stupid rowel with some fucktards on a stock message board, they seem to think I should provide free stock analysis for them... all of course so they can blame me if it doesn't work out. Fucking Children, and I'm the dick... as it is with children, manipulative trying to get everything they can for free, and when you tell them no. they pout and cry cause they don't get what they want.

I keep talking about my thesis "Why your were to fucking stupid to get in the market." followed by my Opus, "why you buy the top and sell the bottom". maybe the first was the opus and the latter is my opus... I'll have to reflect on it.

I'm super excited for next weeks market.

I want some coco puffs....

I hope I can catch a jog tomorrow...

Friday, October 12, 2007

Ringing the register

I got out of my overnight trades... cat was a stinkier. FWLT was good
AL was a stinker.

Morning nonsense.

shit....
I don't mean there is a problem I just forget the numbers
libor is 4.8 ish
Dollar sucks 98% all time low
asia sucks but not that bad
Europe sucks but not that bad.

the PPI and CPI, the retail numbers were fine....

What is funny is that inflation is killing earnings.... but not core inflation.

Nazdaq solar burritos are up 5 already....

Like I've said, that shit will bring the whole market down.

good to see the futures positive, hopefully that will stop the knife.

People with business degrees are morons... Relative to most people.

alright started slow this morning, catch up on my coffee drinking. maybe some breakfast.

Thursday, October 11, 2007

The sell off

I was Super psyched and loaded up the cart....

got the stops set. I could take a hit... but this shit is comming back.... Ya, the teeny bopper chicks aren't shopping..... WTF does that have to do with my industrials and basic materials.

it's stupid but we are comming back.....hopefully with the nasdaq limping behind the dow this time.... The Dow Leads..... Its industrials... only the stupid are getting killed. how can 10 more bucks in oil kill them without them knowing... and they don't raise prices

I may get tagged in alcan... what a stinker that was a mistake. I was just trying to grab from my short list(short list I want to own)... unfotunatly it was on it.

I didn't even get into the red for the day, I was going to lock in some gains... but.. I just figured if I was only that far down and the NaZ was getting Pummeled. I spent the time laughing more than anything....

I just don't see the big sell off yet... earnings are only bad if your being myopic overall, Ya.. my thesis is correct. and we are in a recession trend.. but the sky isn't falling... it's never worked for me to go short on day 2 of a sell off..... good way to get bear butt fucked....

like a sucker I"m bottom fishing

Rio Redux
fwlt
gss
aa
al
cat

hopefully we can make a higher low.

fwlt 142.90
gss.....came back to fast
aauk 34.40
al 100.56
cat 79.37

First on CNBC

Lower Upper class don't want to pay tax that forces them to actually pay tax.

The AMT which forces anyone who makes over 150K to pay their share of taxes, as they fight over and over to avoid paying any taxes, then get tagged because of the AMT, which forces them pony up with a minimum amount of tax instead of "Tax avoidance"

overnights

1.4204 euro to dollar 1.427 all time high 10 days ago sept 30.

dollar index 78.038 all time low 77.63 sept 30

overnight 4.88 1 month Libor 5.13 one month 5.80
Libor locked up at 6 roughly, but it's a spread vs prime

It hit me last night Re: The fly and posting that shit about a 3-5% sell off in October and a big buy in in nov or thanksgiving.... BTW to be noted was the horseshit he was trying to pass off a month ago about technology falling apart.... which it will, just not a month ago. So much for the investing advice he gives out to "Internet Leaching Fucktards"

This in addition to all the other horseshit as wall street keeps trying to scare us out of basic materials. also about how important all the numbers this week and next week are.... PPI and CPI arn't all that important currently IMHO. the retail numbers were going to be poor, and they will be pawned off as "Weather Related"... as Macky says, don't trust anyone who blames the weather.

My point is I'm very tempted to bet the other way..... we are seeing a slow consumer, which will be passed off as nervousness... but it's broader. I'm suspecting we could trade choppy Halloween till thanksgiving, then we could just fall off the cliff. maybe we get a bump from a November fed bump, then sell off.

I just think that we have a choppy earnings, then the dance could be over.

D-Fence

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

fast money chairman

I've been criticle of the chairman of fastmoney....

I just want to note that there is a tremendous amount more caution comming out of the man for the past week or so....

Yes, Bullish with caution is how the market is, seems like a good way to be.

New on Fast money

I bet soon cnbc will send me a note about how I should probably just stop watching.....

but it's so much fun to make fun...

I have a new nickname for one of the CNBC Fast money guys..... he isn't a regular, more an irregular.

I'm still undecided, I was thinking Sleazy, then Greasy, then greaser... I'm going to try:

Sleazy Greaser.

Who today suggested we get out of all the materials names....

For those of you playing the slow money, the only things working are tech, consumer non cyclical and Basic materials.

if basic materials aren't working.... bust out the submarines.

FIRST ON CNBC

"Crowd blocks Traffic.... Pictures coming....... Developing"

do they even think about what they are saying... were they hoping someone was going to get run over..... maybe someone from cnbc.

Melissa Lee "Boeing Insured investors that the 6 month supply time-line was probable"

I'm just covering it as it happens.....

First on my blog: I can use a shower, and a run.

Tuesday, October 9, 2007

Questions......

I'm interested in the move the dollar made last tuesday.

that move had to be a preemtive move before the jobs numbers.

Say there is a Carry trade.

The weakening dollar from people simply selling dollars...

So, the dollar selling stopped when the market hit a new high on the dow.

Looking at the chart on Friday before the Jobs number, the dollar hit a low.

Which is a 3-4% change since the downturn. and has given up half it's gain since the fed cut.

of 2 theories:

  1. the Dollar reflects the money supply
  2. The Dollar reflects the international relative strength of the economy.

Does this reflect the duality in our markets, the weakness of the economy and the strength of the Stock Market.

What about a dollar Dow spread on it.....

Fairly bullish for stocks is that the dollar is outpacing the weakness of the dollar.

Again with this

As the trading day is moving off, into the sunset, All my work done, and I wait for tomorrow, a voice in the background starts yammering about "Basic Materials being a weak dollar play". My Basic materials stocks, leading the indexes for most of the day Untill the fed minutes. I wondered about this being True.
My current short term thesis is a stregnthening of the dollar, and thos investments being counter to my thesis, if basic materials are a weak dollar play... Sure, gold is a weak dollar play, but materials are a global growth play.... Suddenly there I am, looking at the charts. tracking the dollar vs different commodities, and basic materials. I grant that there is a small lift that basic materials get from a weak dollar, which is larger than the whole market gets from a weak dollar.
The research shows that its a limited upside, and that the basic materials stocks do not trade with the dollar. and over the past months, basic materials can be down significantly and have the dollar be weakening.
I just want to thank those who draw these quick ridiculous conclusions. when what they don't track is that for a week basic materials/ and the whole market were down, and they are just now recovering. Which is by far more of the momentum.... Yep.... again it was said. As though he got it from the lips of god. But thanks for waisting 20 minuets of my time, and the additional time I'll spend later on tonight verifying that I'm correct.

Shhhhh Let me let you in on something, the week before earnings there is an attempt to scare investors out of almost all stocks(its a great time to purchase for some fast money). then as earnings in either the sector or the individual name, draw closer. the stock then picks up to the anticipated fair value based on earnings.

the Dow trades with closer parity to the weak dollar.... in fact the dollar probably reflects the dow and the overall economy.

Somone called me out.

I've had to spend a good part of my evening, backing my shit up. Better explaining my positions, due to somone calling me out on my Hyperbole.

here is my responce, I actually edited this down because I found it long winded.

@@@@, I very much apologies, and also give you a tremendous amount of respect for calling me out, on my flippant bile. In your case, I had intended to comment, about my jealousy that you get to cover @#@W, as a means of employment. Also your input to CNBC as a distraction from aggressive trading is welcome. I found it funny, as well as annoying that I’ve spent way to many minutes of my time trying to figure out how to “Short” #@##, based on my assumed bearishness on your part, and that thought continues to make me chuckle.

In my defense(of the overall post, and not Re: @#$#, which was unfair ) my frustrations with CNBC and all of the fine well meaning, hard working folk, Is my frustration with Journalism in general, where editorial Journalism has taken center stage, over more responsible, point-counterpoint journalism. This as well is my frustration in all of journalism today. Not only CNBC, but also WSJ, NYT, CNN, FOX, etc… I’m a Die hard Socialist, but the best show on CNBC in my opinion is Kudlow. That shows ability to bring on the Biggest Bears and Biggest Bulls, into civil point counterpoint arguments about the economy, is invaluable investor information. I’m Long this market, and hope for economic prosperity for everyone in it. But I also don’t want to be the guy going long goldilocks, as pappa bear chews her up, and we wait for grandma to send another of her grand-children back into the woods. This is just a fact of life in this age of Info-tainment guising itself as news, and to be honest I need to spend more time focusing on coping with it, but part of that process is to be able to vent my frustrations on my lame Blog.

As CNBC hosts can provide their opinion that “more people will buy air conditioners in China than will be hurt by the loss of 10-20% equity in their home.”. That months ago “Cisco saw a global market as strong as he has ever seen, in routers and networking devices”(oh, wait that is never qualified, it is always CEOs have remarked that “Global growth, is as strong as it’s ever been.”) and talk about the Tragedy of the Middle class, making 250K getting hit with AMT…. If they can do that, I can flippantly comment on how much I dislike them in some near random order.

My frustration is this: WHERE IS THE STORY ABOUT THE GUY GOING HAVING TROUBLE, GOING BANKRUPT BECAUSE OF MEDICAL BILLS, THAT THE INSURANCE COMPANY IS DENYING, OR THAT BECAUSE HIS COMPANY DOESN’T PROVIDE HEALTH CARE ANYMORE, AND HE CANT FIND A JOB WHERE HE DOES GET MEDICAL. NOW THAT $1000 A MONTH COMES OUT OF HIS PAYCHECK, SO HE CAN’T PAY HIS MORTAGE, HIS HOUSE IS IN FORCLOSURE, HE IS LEVERAGED TO HIS EYBALLS IN CREDIT CARD DEBT, TO FEED HIS FAMILY, ALL ON HIS 25k A YEAR JOB. I’m a little more interested if quantifying these people, than I am in the effect of a change in the tax structure for private equity, or the effect of the AMT on people who make 200K a year. The aforementioned get’s very little play and could have a tremendous affect on our consumer driven economy, the latter is a mustard burp to this economy. I need to know how many of them there are, and how bad it is. Not, a lot of bad suppositions and analogies, and Feet up on the desk… Crap infotainment-economics.

All of this is a debate(cnbc’s lack of discussion of CDOs and CLOs until they had literally ceased up the credit market, and continued discussion of “sub-prime” as the problem, and not a housing bubble), I’m not willing take the time for. CNBC’s continued ability to be about 7 days behind the curve on almost everything in the market, is more their problem than mine. Overall it doesn’t concern me, besides make the hair on the back of my neck go up as I imagine, Old retired people, trying to stretch their meager retirement budget, by going long apple at a 65 P/E. not realizing that it’s a highly speculative investment, as investors are counting on them tripling their market share, which is possible, but still speculative, but WHERE IS THAT STORY “FIRST ON CNBC: APPLE MUST MORE THAN DOUBLE THEIR CURRENT MARKET TO JUSTIFY THE CURRENT PRICE.”……

I digress, and once again, it’s that frustration that I have, that I focus in a poor way, on like I said, the hard working men and woman, doing their best at CNBC, Honestly I should focus more of that frustration on the producers and management. Honestly, I’m busy staying ahead of my investments to do anything but vent to my blog, and now, take this time to clarify my thoughts.

@#^#, none of that has anything to do with you, or your work. I do find useful information, in many of your projects, and I also find that you don’t particularly “Cheer lead” for the market. You’re also a welcome relief to my stressful trading day, and I thank you. Once again I apologies for my remarks.

And Yes, I'm an asshole. But I've told everyone I know that unless you're actively managing your investments, your better off in bonds for a few months. The downside is much higher than the Upside. of course this was once the market recovered, which it has.

Monday, October 8, 2007

more of my hate of cnbc

CNBC Talking heads-

most lack of preference to most prefered.

  1. Bob Pisani
  2. Melissa Lee
  3. Jim Goldman
  4. ***
  5. Erin Burnett
  6. Steve Liesman
  7. Dylan Rattigan
  8. (the multitudes of cnbc Talking heads)
  9. Kudlow
  10. Joe Kernen
  11. Maria.. the money honey
  12. Jim Cramer
  13. Rick Santelli
  14. Margaret Brennan( Sorry, for a minute I thought this was a list of least hot to most)

Just an Update: This isn't fair. In my defence, there are a tremendous amount of Editorial journalisum on cnbc... and my list tries to reflect those at cnbc who are cautious in providing their views, and those who throw about their opinions around like they know something.... some of them do, and some of them..... are about as behind the curve as you can get.

Sunday, October 7, 2007

hmmmm

maybe farming and mining are going to make us all rich.... probably the new technology...

Certainly if there is a huge food and mining boom, it will take the economy with it.

Like I say... I'm no brain surgeon...

The smart money.... what are they up to.

last week, did they sell out? Recession, but when.

why isn't the dollar strengthening, gold going down, oil coming down.......

is the market really counting on another rate cut.....

these are the models... if there is nothing wrong.. the fed fucked up.. (Hopefully they won't take it back. Cause something is wrong).

we will keep rising... but slowly hopefully.

interesting thing is that. we still face some slowing in the economy....

I'm just a bear in bull clothing. Just so as I'm not the slow money.

Saturday, October 6, 2007

In Defense of the Hedge fund

I've been rethinking my ideas about the sleazy hedge funds buying up the market in low volum rallys....

I love every up day on CNBC.... this is how it goes:

"Hi, Sam... Look at this market, it's just amazing"

"Yep the market is great."

"well Sam, what are you and your hedge fund/brokerage house buying today?"

"oh we like Technology and materials, but we arn't buying today."



But here it is... the reason for the low volume is.... well they arn't buying. It's the Day Traders and the Retail.

But they arn't shorting it either, they are still long the market, and are hoping it will go up.

Without the suphisticated software to slowly ease them out of the market, every time they sell it just drives it down in mass.

I also wonder if there is legitamate bullishness to the market, if sure 2 or 3 months of slow job growth.... just meanst there isnt' much hiring out there. Buisness is good, just not good enough for more employees....

Cept Main street can feel it. they know things arn't good. They pay for more gas and more food.

Alright, I know I'm not a rocket scientist... but I am smart, and I spent some time on the google message boards. and damn those people are dumb.

they say, "I Like Apple.... Cause it's shiney"

I just wonder if the Hedgies and brokrages are like "damn those home gamers/daytraders" are dumb.... Don't they know there is a recession comming.....

I just don't want to be the one standing after the music stops playing.

Okidokie

Going to blog this through.....


Shit that scares me.

  1. end of the day price action. Unreal how it was like the music stoped in the last hour and the day traders got left holding the bag. and we had a massive sell off.. except the nasdaq.
  2. Weak volume ralleys.... I've sort of staired at it.... I'm not seeing larger sell offs than ralleys.... so .... it's not... it is in my stock..... but ... not in the market
  3. still a weak rally after such bullish news.(bullshit bullish news)
  4. I need walstreet to hold their stock.... I don't need bullish.. but I think I do need neutral.

things the other way:

  1. I get scared when I'm holding long, this has gone on long enough.... so it just scares me.

Friday, October 5, 2007

Lets talk about apple

Hypotheticly, if apple did the unbeliebable took over 100 billion in pc market share... assuming the profit margin in pc's was the same as mac....

they pick up 2 dollars per share in earnings...

$6 per share. that is still a p/e of 32 which is still 12 more P/E than HPQ which trades at 20.

That is called overvaluation. when even if the best thing in the world happened, the P/E of apple is still over valued.

at apples current valuation, they need have a P/C in every home, everyone needs to have a iphone, and an Ipod.

that is it's current value.

maybe I'll give this to herb greenburg.

more fast money

I can't bring into words how much I hate "fast money" the cnbc show.

I'm sorry, Macky is funny, probably a good guy to go to lunch with and trade with, drink beer.

finerman is the only decent trader there... and I miss long winded Eric Bolling... at least I knew why he liked stuff..

Besides shouting ticker symbols at me... what the hell is the point of this show...

sorry... I just hate this fucking show.

BTW... I made a brilliant call today... I just picked the perfect reversal point in a stock today.... it was unfucking real...

I get this way... but I'm sketchy on a trade I did. if the market shows sucker rally today we are so overextended... If we have a pullback... I'm going to see some pain.... I'm better with pain when i'm short the market... I expect some pain when I'm speculating on a reversal.... I need to do some market chart shit.... that fucking nasdaq, that fucker is so ready for a fall. but give that fucker another 20% when apple trades at 100 p/e will people clue in there.

I don't realy know if anyone is reading this blog

I figure I'd give a recap of my opinion on the economy and Le Market.

Just a recap of what kind of asshole I am.

My poorly measured IQ is 140-160 range... probalby in the low end cause I'm a sucker for tons of bullshit.... but I digress

I'm no economist, and have a humanities background.....

Meaning I have Bear Tendancies...

But... I'm very bullish on the market. Based on my understanding and research on Recessions and the market. Once the fed cuts the Bulls take it to the market, and if they are doing low volume runn-ups with high volume sell offs. We will trade to all time highs through earnings, and untill.... well untill we get some realy bad news.. .probably in the form of employment... we will get a 50's number next month, and the bulls will say "lets see if it's revised up next month" we will trade neutral till the december number... it will be bad and we will probably Crash.
This is the 8th or 9the inning of the game. the question answered today was if we were in the bottom of the 9th... and we could be in the 8th.... I wouldn't rull out that we are in the bottom of the 7th.

also it could be the GDP number that kicks us in the ... Balls.

the 100K employment numbers are Bad... and tell the real maket guys to get very defensive.... and they are taking as many profits right now as they can.

The market action today was good, but not "Great" not like monday.... the fact that the monday rally was better than this "good employment" number... tells me something about the market... the price action shows much more bearish than one would suspect. at the end of the day the institutional investors, didn't come in like they normaly do. and the daytrading L2 traders got caught with teh bag as we traded back to the 50% retracement.... we are still bullish... it's just... strange, and its very bearish that no one wanted to hold onto stock at the end of the day... Especially on what was such a "good day".

The dollar... the dollar should be strengthening, and gold should be coming down with oil... I project 710 in gold and 76 in oil.... the fed is not going to cut...

when the fed doesn't cut.. the bulls will say "oh, that's because the economy is ok." usually we trade up for a while after that.

with my money I'll be playing very defensive, and find beaten down sectors by market sell offs"profit taking"

I guess my point is we aren't falling off a cliff but I didn't think that anyways... but we are going up for a few weeks. it's easier to make money long, and not short....

Always afraid but long the market...

I just posted this to The big picture

This is like the best snow job ever.....

How do you convince everyone and stop people from talking about how bad sub 100,000 jobs are..

you get a sub 4K and get it revised back up.

and everyone things that it's good.

Because sub 100K numbers for the past 3 months is good for the economy.

As the stock market has weak volume rallies and high volume sell offs.

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!!!!
I Am OZ!!!
but I digress.

in a few months we find out that goldilocks has been held up like a marionette for months.

The greatest shell game ever told.



In an act of Pathetic self promotion I linked back here.

Let me just warn, this blog is just about unreadable. I use it to vent, and say Rude and unkind stuff about people who... to be honest are just doing their best.... but they piss me off... so I vent.

Also I speculate on the economy and stock market...

but I honestly as a good trader think I shouldn't post my trades... because...
well it seems to curse them. every trade I've posted has killed me.... and I'm thinking there is a psychological correlation.

Oh, gold is comming back to 710-720 and will muddle there for months. but gold mining stocks will be a good buy there.

Thursday, October 4, 2007

First On CNBC, First on JPMorgan, First at Citi

So..... I want a job working for these morons.....

basic materials stock pull back for the past 3 days.... I'm thinking about jumping in, and JpMorgan is like... oh we are downgrading them....Really they are already down 5% thanks for the Hind site.... No body in the global economy is going to need steel....

I just want a job downgrading stocks that just came down.... it's like working for CNBC....

The market just came down 3000 pts... Oh, we are going to downgrade it....

What a bunch of fucking morons.... and who the fuck pays them for this bullshit...

oop steal is testing the day low.... now if only we could test the high....

Just going to have to take the bet...

I'm thinking the number is going to suck and things will be cheeper tomorrow.

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

tale of the tape

this is looking bad... praying to god we find some buyers.....

Is steve liesman the stupidest economist in the world..... Sure he only has a masters.... but that only makes him slightly smarter than a PHD... I guess there are dumber ones

So, average American owns what last fall was a 400,000 home.

that home is projected to be worth 300,000 but the market isn't liquid because we have 8 months of houses in the market.
The fact that they just lost 100k-50K that won't affect them..... especialy if they don't even have 100K in equidy and may as well just cash out....

PUT YOUR FUCKING LEGS BACK ON THE TABLE ASSHOLE!!!!!!

WTF I just looked at his Resume..... he has no economic background..... Masters in journalisum, and B.A. in english.
none of that means we arn't going up..........

I wan't someone at CNBC to say "THIS IS ONE SCARY VOLITILE MARKET" if your not an aggressive trader.... Get out......

Housing sales continue to show no bottom....

BTW there could be a lessening of the decline in housing sales next month, since a lot of this was caused by the lockup of the credit market.

Damn

so I follow Sierra mountain investor... and he is gone... or she... super lame... I checked the site because looks like we are getting a pull back in gold... I'd like to see it to Work a U bottom but we will see....

I'm a little jittery this morning... futures look even.... Makes me nervous... short interest record high yesterday

short interest

this tape is looking stinky.........Wish I had some free cash to go short...

Sorry more on the game plan

I'm riding this out with my long positions.. Watch the market action, set some stops... The bears are dead, and it's going to get something to get their nuts back under them.

Epic bad numbers, enough to shake the bulls.

also seeing some high volume slow declines...

I'll stay long and just watch the numbers, I think it will be hard to slow this market till the earnings are over.

Like the Fly says... there is always new money the institutions have to dump into the market... and without the bears, Just that momentum makes the stocks go to the moon.

Game Plan

Don't have one... going to try and get some exercise today.... I should look for some new bearings for my wheels...

In fast money news... guy adami looked positively spooked, and so did baby Hughey... Let me just say... I kind of like baby hughey... cept that he is in the sector that is getting killed....he should just stand up and say... if it's retail... Sell!!!!!! "market was up? good day to sell retail."

Mr. Nut tickler... he has some rationalization about "clarity"... he is still trying to give reasons for the market... In my opinion the market is 80% emotion 20% economics... Also realize, he has only traded the 98 and 2001 recessions only the 2001 being an actual recession... Point being he just doesn't see it coming.... When he talks about mining stocks being undervalued at 15-20 P/E .... umnnnn they traditionally trade at like 7 P/E but a change in economics, can mean that they are the new "Tech"....

So.... on a more personal note Jeff Macke... Like I say... starting to like him... just in case he surfs this.... Buddy... I'm worried about your health... Without getting into it.. I think you should defiantly try and get "Some" exercise.. even just a walk every day. If not, I'd like to see you go to a doctor every 6 months, and if they suggest more... I'd do as they ask... I know your busy.. but please, for your family and your friends.... Maybe even fans... but maybe your going to have to hit rock bottom, I just hope it doesn't take you from us...

Monday, October 1, 2007

assmonkeys on wallstreet and GPS

Garmin GRMN is growing at 2x per year.... they are selling twice as many gps units every year. Not only new users but also old users upgrading to new units. So many people use them for cycling, backpacking, and a thousand recreational uses.....

Wallstreet thinks it is for Tubby and his wife, so that they don't get lost on the way to cousin Hugo's new home for a BBQ..... Why? because they are Tubby, and haven't seen the outdoors in since they walked over to central park, to get gang raped by disco dancers... WTF does that mean...... it is just a reminder of how important it's been in the last week that the Mets play baseball.

Garmin will continue to make great products that will never be able to be replaced by a cell phone... cell phones have to get 4x more powerful, and and and.... will have to be connected to the cell towers and the Internet.... How helpful will that be when your lost in the middle of nowhere.... that is where your Lame ass cell phone gps will get you...... Stupid wall street morons...
There are 2 tech stocks on the nasdaq 100 that have any value, one is Garmin the other is cisco. once the recession hits... they will continue to do well, while the rest of this consumer shit will go down the toilet as the over leveraged consumer takes a hit that has not been seen in our lifetime.

But none of this means GRMN isn't going lower.... Opinion and emotion are everything, if she goes she goes, but I'd buy it before earnings every time for huge pops ever time as Tubby continues to be surprised by a company that continues to RIPPPP, if there is something to dump on this it's that lame Magellin...

First on CNBC

No Recession.....

based on ....

the worst bankers in the country Citigroup have said so.

everyone else says chance are very high, relativly.... I'll bet Erin Burnetts retirment on it...

Oh.... the fucking market it ripping today.... and probably will for a while......

BTW rate cut no rate cut, the market rips... in fact a rate cut would put more fear in the market than the bullshit spin put into the market by a "no rate cut".....

Even at -2000 number in jobs wouldnt' put a pull back in the market....

RIPPING...

One week upside 2%
one week downside 4%

one month upside 10%
one month downside 4%

2 month upsided 15%
2 month downside 0%

3 month upside 15%
3 month downside 20%

this is my crystal ball.

I love that we are ripping today..... good call of mine, that I was nervous about that we would just keep ripping.....

this is totaly out of the historic models that I looked at.... but... once the model is broken, you have to take a bet.

Umnnn, my list of regional banks are RIPPING
Particular notes
KB +6%
fhn +3%
BBT 2.1%
the rest are all up from .5-1.5%
Except NCC

Game Plan!!!

My crystal ball!!!!

I don't see a big sell off, but we could trade neutral through the whisper number on jobs. Let the Hedgies sell all the crap they purchased last week(distribution).

Spent some of my time this weekend looking at regional banks....
I excluded banks with Florida, California, and east coast exposure, and some preferential looks to things in Texas and other good mining states.... I also excluded banks that had largely recovered.

NCC
BBT
KB
NCC
RF
CNB
CBSH
FHN
HBAN
TCB
CFR

Looking at them for a 10%-20% trade........ besides a quick screen, that was all I did, I barley looked into the fundamentals.

I'm looking for a pull back in gold, which will make me want to jump into a miner till the Jobs number comes out.....

The snoozer trade that I'm in, is making my ass twitch... Hoping to break even there..

Maybe look to a breakdown of the R2K..... I may pull out today and look for greener pastures.

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"