Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Saturday, October 20, 2007

The Questions

Walked away with some slight gains today, I'm sick of:
1/3 slight gains
1/3 loss
1/3 fare gains

Caught a little behind the curve today. Honestly I bailed after the first leg down and we didn't look like we were going to reverse.

My usual impulse is not to run, but when the market breaks down, I tend to lose a ton waiting for the reversal.

I guess my better game plan is to wait for reversals, instead of trying to be ahead of the curve.

Bullish:
this would be the end of a 5 day pull back.
Bearish:


Based on my old theory that we have to give back a 200% retracement from the fed move.
Targets are:
144 SPY or 1450 on the S&P

2510 on the naz

13050 on the dow

Lets talk about the 5 year bull.

23.6% retracement is 12500 or roughly the august low.
38.2 Retracement is 11500 or roughly the march high.

*work in progress*

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