Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Tuesday, October 9, 2007

Again with this

As the trading day is moving off, into the sunset, All my work done, and I wait for tomorrow, a voice in the background starts yammering about "Basic Materials being a weak dollar play". My Basic materials stocks, leading the indexes for most of the day Untill the fed minutes. I wondered about this being True.
My current short term thesis is a stregnthening of the dollar, and thos investments being counter to my thesis, if basic materials are a weak dollar play... Sure, gold is a weak dollar play, but materials are a global growth play.... Suddenly there I am, looking at the charts. tracking the dollar vs different commodities, and basic materials. I grant that there is a small lift that basic materials get from a weak dollar, which is larger than the whole market gets from a weak dollar.
The research shows that its a limited upside, and that the basic materials stocks do not trade with the dollar. and over the past months, basic materials can be down significantly and have the dollar be weakening.
I just want to thank those who draw these quick ridiculous conclusions. when what they don't track is that for a week basic materials/ and the whole market were down, and they are just now recovering. Which is by far more of the momentum.... Yep.... again it was said. As though he got it from the lips of god. But thanks for waisting 20 minuets of my time, and the additional time I'll spend later on tonight verifying that I'm correct.

Shhhhh Let me let you in on something, the week before earnings there is an attempt to scare investors out of almost all stocks(its a great time to purchase for some fast money). then as earnings in either the sector or the individual name, draw closer. the stock then picks up to the anticipated fair value based on earnings.

the Dow trades with closer parity to the weak dollar.... in fact the dollar probably reflects the dow and the overall economy.

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