Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Monday, November 30, 2009

Yep

that is the market I know... it has to fuck around with some nice denial... and screw people who "Sell bad news"..


cause the market just doesn't work that way. The worst thing that could have happened to the bears was dubai... so It could sucker them in to get crushed.

maybe this is the sell opportunity... but it just goes to show the mistake of selling a down market.

Same shit different day.

I was reading the Niall Ferguson Krugman Feud.... I was trying to find a detailed Resume of Niall. Seems like he is more of a historian than an Economist... and to beat my dead horse of late...

He just can't do the maths...

but seems like his point is more to be a cult of personality, than anything else.

you would think I'd give you some links .... wouldn't you

I continue with caution

Just the idea that we will sell off on dubai news... just isn't the market I know...


now if we could get a big upbar or something to shake out the sellers..

I mean, there are are million reasons for the market to sell off.... and dubai could be a huge deal...

I'm just saying that isn't the market I know.... It needs to fuck with us some more.

First on CNBC

So, there was a report about how "The market" had shook off dubai and.....


"everybody back in the pool."

they were replaying this report... not noticing that the market was down 30... which isn't exactly "Shaking off"...

I like to see a light sell off that they can easily dismiss.... it would be uber bearish if this went on for a few days...

as they all keep hitting the "Buy the dip"...

then maybe they can declare the world is coming to and end..... and we can bounce

What the hell are you doing! Now we are both in the Hole!

Religulous

I saw Religulous this weekend... only 17.49 at your local amazon.... I'm playing with another project and I'm toying with monetization.


There was a very funny part, where Maher was talking to a senator, and he goes "What concerns me is that my elected representatives believe in a Talking Snake!"

the Born again Senator defending the bible says "Well, there isn't exactly an IQ test for becoming a U.S. Senator."

pause pause pause.

Monday Morning post

I guess I need to post something.


My feeling overnight was that we needed a good denial phase... sort of a "Dubai is fine... nothing to worry about here", then over 3 months it clobbers us, it and about 50 other things.

Here I sit, and we have relatively flat futures.... I think "They" will come in and sell it ... If We are going to follow them, look to bail on price action at 11, then a rebound.... Maybe...

They flew Erin off to Dubai for some reason... probably to have her hair blow every which way... Has she heard of Scrunchies? how about finding spots for her "Stand-up" without wind....

Just saying.

The missed Dubai thing is that though liquidity is being provided to the banks, this doesn't eliminate the default.




Friday, November 27, 2009

Thanksgiving

The concern I have here, is that.... HOLY JESUS THE TOP CALLING!!!!!

Nobody sees this coming!!

My kid could paint that

There is a documentary about a 4 year old who paints Modern art, marla Olmstead

It starts off with the notion of if a 4 year old can paint modern art, Then morphs into "if dad painted her work".

This sort of reminds me of "Teach the Controversy".

I like to think I have some artistic taste, and am willing to call things the way they are. But I've seen Adults do abstract worse than some of the suspect works.

I suspect that Dad couldn't pull off some of the Better ones.

All of this doesn't go back to the original point that; Most abstract art isn't worth the price of the canvas.

Polar sentiment

After thrusday I was going to suggest that we had managed much positive sentiment.....


and we see how that played up.

it all sets up for some very interesting trading, since now we have every body screaming correction again.... and Nimrods saying "Black Swan"... even though many people had been talking about sovereign debt default for weeks.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

down 24

well, futures are down 24 on the spx fair value is less that 2, if not .5.


that is effectively limit down.

I also want to point out down 24 on something we knew Wed.

While you were giving thanks


DJIA Futures 10352.0 -88.0 -0.8% S&P 500 Futures 1096.1 -12.8 -1.2% Nasdaq Futures 1776.0 -18.3 -1.0% Above are as of 0613 ET FTSE 100 5265.0 -99.8 -1.9% Xetra DAX 5686.3 -116.7 -2.0% CAC40 3727.2 -32.0 -2.2% Above are as of 0611 ET Nikkei 225 9383.2 -58.4 -0.6% Hang Seng 22210.4 -401.3 -1.8% Above are closing prices

MARKETS OUTLOOK: Stock futures are sharply lower Thursday after Dubai's surprise move to restructure its corporate jewel - Dubai World - hit sentiment in Europe with markets deep in the red.

Joshua Raymond at City Index said that while investors remain generally upbeat, with the VIX index - the measure of markets' volatility - below levels seen prior to Lehman Brothers' collapse, the global economic recovery remains fragile.

"People are much more confident than they were, but with Black Friday, [the beginning of the traditional Christmas shopping season] this week, we need to see confidence on the high street," he said.


We will see if it holds through friday.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Johnny Cash


Johnny cash Bio is on .

Got's to love Johnny Cash

Some Iritations today

I heard some traders bitch about Trader tax.....


Cry me a River.

If traders are so brilliant, it would be good to tax them to the point where they move to another part of the economy where they can ... be Productive...

but I do hear that we are trying to Breed as much productivity out of the population as possible, by creating a Negative breeding Feedback Loop. You know Reward people for, being a Chair warmer, and look down on anyone who is dumb enough to have a job where they "do something".

It's a chip on my shoulder, but I very much believe that our society runs on the Dilbert Principle; Demote the most productive people to the bottom, and let the most brain Dead excel point being the prosperous nature of financial services.

But like we say "That which is not sustainable, Won't" So, no worries, this is just what we are going through.... The Natural adaptive process has been turned upside down, and is collapsing on itself. And the productive classes... the Blue collar guys will rise up and insist on getting a fair wage, and those with skills will manage to get Paid commensurate with their skills.

Instead of those who can exploit as many productive people as they can, getting bonus' for running companies into the ground, by gutting any intellectual or economic capitol built up over the years.... Cause you can just find someone else to do the job for 1/4 the cost. Sure everything falls apart, but you have someone in the same job title and costs are lower.

Bla Bla Bla

Market delta

if we close near the open today, this will be the third day ... we will have a close near the open... Which would suggest that....


this is all Daytrader volume... Just "Punting" the market back and fourth, across the 50 yard line.

Recent MEME's are "sell after the thanskgiving bounce." and the continued "rally through the rest of the year"

It can be traded on the other side of the curve, if those meme's fail.

always more bars to see.


No chart...

Continued Shuck and jive... plenty of negative sentiment to push us up on low volume...


we will see, but it's thanksgiving.... and I don't want to sit in this chair.

I'm most curious if we can generate delta today, ass opposed to a daily... hour by hour shell game..

Probably plenty of fun Scalp on scalp action to play....

but I'm not very interested in the intra day .... shuck and Jive...

Break out the Old MEME!!!

Break out the Party hats.
.
Lets hear the old Weak dollar rock and roll. The old shuck and jive.
Pull out Santelli For a great day of the same old Song and dance....
It's Groundhog day on Wallstreet!!!

Maybe I can go back to bed.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Ugh this morning

seems like this is going to be a week we could live without


I was doing some reading....

"I'm not a scientist... But..... it seems like the sun rotates around the earth!"

I'm not a Doctor but every time I shove my cock in a Light Socket... I would think I'd get an erection? No?

I'm not an Engineer... but I think a mobile home should be built to take on a tornado.

I'm not an Economist but... why can't economists predict the economy, with absolute precision!!


you see... there are reasons you aren't a scientist, doctor, engineer or economist.... and it's those same reasons you don't understand... Science, biology, engineering or economics!

cause if you could, you would be one....

but you don't even understand this!

thin trading

oh!!! it's thin trading...


we will spend the week seeing if the futures can wag the market dog!

No mans land

I mentioned to tony about No man's land... which is the land of traps on the recent tests of top. that sort of Set of red bars toward the top of this chart.


The great thing about the current move is there is no "Gap" We continue in a sort of range, now moving down below the various tests of top.

You have to throw out a "Failed Test" at this point and suggest that this is a bearish move.

and we are outside the "No Man's land"

Some Charts


I haven't posted any charts for some period of time. You can't point to anything but an uptrend, Or babble meaninglessly about range bound. I hold my long term view.


I suggested yesterday that what the market wants is to catch you on the wrong side of it to the tune of 20SPX points.

I posed the idea yesterday that the morning buyers were just people with the thesis that we would rally on weak volume all week... maybe they are right...
or they are bag holders....

What am I saying.... Good question.. I guess we need to see the next upswing.

NFP

Rosenberg pointed out yesterday that the MEME going around is that NFP will be slightly negative or positive for Nov. when released in early Dec.

Monday, November 23, 2009

SocGen Armageddon piece

SocGen - Worst Case Debt Scenario height="500" width="100%" > value="http://d1.scribdassets.com/ScribdViewer.swf?document_id=22769745&access_key=key-1jsuuqq8eq9lx2lljmkp&page=1&version=1&viewMode=list">

Huckabies


Fortunatly this morning as I contemplate the concept that we are actually range bound. I heart huckabies is on...

1 hour overbought oversold market continues

That is a charmer isn't it.....

Good for the goose good, for the gander

I guess it's Hope or puke day for the shorts from thursday and friday...


we all know my bias... As I type it, stay firmly in control of your emotions, if you are in Puke or hope mode... you are fucking up!


Before the author tracks back to me and writes me hatemail... Come'on... I agree with you there seems to be some weird Monday buying. But besides a chart with some arrows on it, what do you have...

Could be some kind of Dollar Trade Imballence which gets the futures going, sparking off some short covering. It also could be behavioral, but once it's been spotted it tends to be short lived.

The last 2 weeks the profitable thing to do seems to be fade the Monday move (Not specifically on Monday, but to fade the swing), which is easier than buying the pullback, or selling after the pullback.

Fun

up 10 on the spx.....


nice that I do this to myself...

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Making the rounds

Common MEME's


AAII is making the rounds this weekend.

Fat finger the dollar, is making the rounds... looks like Bias to me.

Friday, November 20, 2009

Have to love CNBC

there was a chart of the SPX and the Dollar


they were all "there is an inverse relationship"

for those of us that actually have watched it, it's a loose relationship. It might even suggest that the only relationship is that global markets are moving from stocks into Dollars.. meaning Selling them.

which is ... not a Causal relationship, and it just shows Correlation.

For those of you who don't speak English Correlation is not Causation... but don't say that out loud or you will get "Stoned" by those with marginal intellect.

Things that creep my bearish ass out

Carter worth calling for a correction yesterday.


all this bond stuff... feels like they are spooked.

weekly ta

oh.... the joy... "markets continue to consolidate..."


oh the sentiment.

So, I was scheduled for a lunch today. I get the joy of giving someone investment advice for an hour. I of course bombed this person with 6 pages of all the bad news. Then of course they are all "I was just feeling good, I don't want to hear about all of that"... Then of course when things are Grimm... "the market, I don't want to hear about that, it's a horror show"...

They only universal constant is that they only want to invest when things look good. and won't even want to talk about it when it's grim.

But... will he pay for lunch... or do I just get the joy of talking about investments for 2 hours for my enjoyment cause I live to ... sit and read this crap for 70 hours a week, then have a nice lunch talking about it.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

a chart

Symmetrical Triangle... PLEASE!!!!! *eye roll* I'd explain it but....when did I become your Mr. Miagie! I'd talk about this chart The only think I actually want to say, is JESUS!! I haven't seen us that Bullish in 2 years! I ran some wave counts on Monday and said "we were out, and at best one more." Then I said some useful stuff then on Tuesday I said more." then on Wed I made a very solid call in the morning... Called the afternoon bounce... and took a nap.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Who the FUCK

is buying Commodites and pushing them Limit up.


Remember last time this happened, commodities were near a top....

Just add an egg

In some of my mumbling this morning...


I was talking about a marketing thing, about something related to traders taking heat:

it was something I heard about betty crocker and cake mixes, they suggested that they needed to get consumers to "Add and egg" so they were personally invested.


Simplicity

I've spent the last 10 years of my life, working on simplicity. There are many times when some exacerbated friend comes to me, and my response is generally;


"How am I involved? and how can I not be?", Ya i'm a lousy friend.

So, one thing I have learned... Especially in engineering... KEEP IT SIMPLE! The worst part is that once you deviate and have a problem, you have to dig through a Kludge of a Model. When Honestly you are much better off to just keep things simple, Reduce noise and just focus on the simple signal.


Just some thoughts.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Fuck

I hint at one indicator.... and it shows up.


Jebus.... I guess you are kind of disparate since I've stopped letting you dry hump my calls.

You just have to learn respect... I wasn't put on this earth for you to dry hump.

FastMoney

"the dollar has decoupled from the market"!!!


either that or this is that point where "The market has decoupled from reality"


dave and breakfast

this guy posts breakfast with dave every morning

doesn't seem like

we are struggling with the 1.4950 level in the dollar any more....


and all it's consequences.

Monday, November 16, 2009

I plead the 5th

so.... I can't give out analysis because any analysis I give out will distort my data sample.


Readers of my daily Newsletter AKA my daily hatemail! have my analysis in their Inbox already.


The question

of the day... is how much of this is Noise.... and how much of it is signal.

in case you didn't notice

that is 200 Pts or 20SPX pts in 1 hour and 15 minutes.... that would be impossible with in a trading session.

LOL!

A new study raises more questions about ezetimibe (Zetia)


The trial, known as ARBITER-6 HALTS, was stopped early in June after it was discovered that LDL-cholesterol-lowering Zetia was less effective than extended-release niacin (Niaspan), which raises HDL, or "good," cholesterol levels, in reducing plaque build-up in the arteries.

"This trial provides a clear and undeniable statement on the superior clinical effectiveness of niacin over ezetimibe," study principal investigator Dr. Allen Taylor

84 10 MG Zetia $150
month supply of niaspan $11

Morning notes

Euro struggles with 1.495... and by struggle I mean; moves above and below it.


Futures up 9 up 11 up 7... Takes guts to buy it up there, I'll be curious how price discovery goes.

Predictions.... No advantage here. So.... I should be in bed.

Traders are in the range, so whichever way it breaks out of the range they will but Buying it or selling it....

I hope that works for them...

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Torture

Somebody, just showed a chart. This is the horror of the market, and blogging. Someone shows you a chart. They say "Look At this"... and it doesn't show a fucking thing!


so you re-read it 4 times, just to confirm. Then realize you just spent 20 min reading nothing.

Friday, November 13, 2009

More crankyness

... I'm flipping through blogs, and find another person dry humping my trades. Pretending they are his.


You have to realize this is why I don't post them. What is amusing is that I'd bet this person, in his head thinks it's funny. One should reflect that, it's very sad, when what you claim is yours is actually someone else's. And it's why they take it away.
and remember, this is probably why you don't have anything.

I have to express that this is the problem with posting trades, that I'm then obligated to keep posting.

It won't stay this way.


so

Right in the range.... and seems like there wasn't a huge advantage to holding through Monday. Only disadvantage. the market is probably not going to make it's move overnight.


you can't officially say we have escaped the "bump and go"

Failure of a Bull Flag, or Fast Flag

that is what they were buying here.

Stalking


The current Trading MEME is "the Stalk" so this morning, like I suggested we should have been Stalking this. My good friend Tony, got trapped in this. Which would have probably nailed me this morning Too... but there wasn't a good Vic2B... and Even if I showed you what there was, they used it as a Buy this morning, so the noise on the 5 min would have been hard....

but remember you are looking at a Closing Bar on the 5 min.
The solution would have been to reduce the noise and maybe stalk the 65 minute, which would have kept you out of trouble... and then you could have looked for a better entry at one point.

The great thing about the 65 Min... is that "its better than the 60" and nobody else uses it, so you don't get suckered with "Them"

Stops

SO you are looking at this and wondering Where do I put a stop... Well, obviously since you have the Vic 2b, that is where you want the stop... but there are several obvious places for a stop, all my arrows.


but Mostly you want to remmeber that They are at all thses horizontal levels, and remember that "They" get pushed out by the Noise some times... so your stops should be, in a short position, slightly above these levels.

a bear would like to see

sounds obvious, but a failure to make a new high here... and for that to then fail and move down to the Vic2B

ok... so

If you subscribe to the special news letter... My prediction.... I know I was wrong.. I said "maybe an 11am bounce of 5 spx points, and I was wrong..... Seems to have extended....


But I think we are watching the 15-20 and this Vic2b white arrow and yellow line.

The easy game is just to try and wait it out..... This still could be the bump and go playing out to new highs.

3com

There is a Barrons story about if 3com and HP can stop Cisco....



HAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!!!HAHAHAHAHHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I love you Traders/Investors..... Sure it is a great MEME... and sure It will probably grow....

BUT YOU ARE SO FUCKING STUPID!!

3com is... ok last I knew they were 50 employees, and all their crap is outsourced in china. The only thing they built were Switches.... OK Some of the Best Switches Ever Made. They made a great network card. and they built PALM...

PALM IS A BETTER COMPANY NOW!

They are just lucky they aren't bankrupt, and have almost no ability to build no products... with such a small staff, there aren't any engineers, and any decent ones are long gone.

but somehow.. HP... which is a Glorified DELL... which is a PC company... Ya... HP is the best of the Desktops... big fucking eye roll there. and you merge a company that has made the same switch for 12 years...

and out of all this YOU FUCKING MORONS think you can get a Router out of it. 3com tried to move into other markets... and they were so fucking bad at it. I purchased some equipment from them once... I SPENT 6 months Debugging it... and it never worked right... 3com just apologised and sort of Begged that I didn't tell anybody that their product didn't actually work.... after bullshiting me for 6 months...

BUT YA!!! some Engineer is going to set their Backbone on that SHIT!!!!!!

LOL!!!!!

I hate gold

You can't read a blog these days without running into a gold chart... I saw something and wanted to look at targets? and this is what I came up with, Sure the second higher one is similar to the Inverse head and shoulders.... and I very much doubt it.... but from what I'm hearing, anyone bearish is just looking for a pullback.... So maybe it's a top. but seems due for a pullback..


Now! I'm trying to remember if I've tried to call a top in it before. LOL

I would strongly suggest some kind of intermediate pull back... who the hell knows beyond that.

Joe

This morning Joe was gloating about the big win yesterday for the bulls.


apparently the bears were trying to argue that the walmart earnings were negative and were going to affect the market poorly.

I guess good old joe forgot the market sold off a hundred points yesterday.

Charming how that works.

I'm not sure... Is it me.... I just think that an economy where people are trading down to wallmart isn't a good one...

I'm no Economist like Joe is... Oh... hang on, he was such a shitty broker that he gave it up to make a hundred or a few hundred grand being a talking head.
Like I said I'm not Economist, but I would think a good economy would be one where people are shopping at the Mall, and buying Nice Custom Products, from Specialty retailers.

Oh video game sales down 19 percent Last month...

When I wrote today

"Seems like there is a reversal pattern out of the dollar.

That is all.... that and all it's Consequences."


After talking about, a lower low out of the Euro....

SOMEHOW SOME MORON THOUGH!!! I was suggesting that the market was going Higher?

and not that yesterday's reversal in the Dollar and today's probably confirmation, Meant and even Predicted a DOWN DAY!!! In fact today I was so sure of a Down Day. I turned the TV off, and took a Nap from 11Eastern to 1. And spent most the morning Cleaning.....

But APPARENTLY I have to TRADE FOR PEOPLE!!!... I think you will do it wrong! so if you would send me your passwords, that would be easier! and I'll be charging you 2 and 20.....

I UNDERSTAND THAT YOU ARE STUPID!!! BUT I CAN'T HELP THAT!

And on WED I Clearly DREW THE VIC2B....... I may have even said VIC2B.... BUT YOU FUCKING MISSED IT!!!!

Let us cover Tuesday... when I suggested that we had yet to be TOO excited for a TOP, and probably needed Another PUSH!!! and it Happened ON WED.....

and at the close when I suggested that I was neutral... BECAUSE I FIGURED EVEN IF WE OPENED LOWER TODAY, WE WOULD GAP FADE and you would be able to find a Decent ENTRY at some point after the open.

And it was a SHORT TERM TOP, AT LEAST!!!

Let me talk about MONDAY... WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE we were going HIGHER.... and I SAID I WOULDN'T TRADE IT.

And FRIDAY... I TALKED ABOUT THE Trade Of Last Resort.... and HOW TO PLAY IT! But it Didn't WORK!

BUT BY DIDN'T work THERE WAS NO ENTRY!!


Lets talk about TUESDAY before last, After the big Vix day, and I said we needed another DOWN BAR, and we got it and reversed. NEXT DAY we traded FLAT, and I suggested that there was a BOUNCE!

I just want to say.... IT'S NOT THAT I"M WRONG!!!!! YOU ARE FUCKING STUPID!!!

IF YOU DON'T REALIZE!!! THE MARKET IS A SERIES OF SETUPS AND YOU BET ACCORDINGLY... CONSTANTLY MAKING ONE BET AT A TIME OF APPROPRIATE AMOUNTS, AND TAKING THEM OFF AT APPROPRIATE TIMES.

THIS IS ALL COMING OUT IN MY BULLSHIT SELF PUBLISHED BOOK.

YOU CAN'T TRADE!

There is no chance I'm going to sit all fucking day and post after post trade entries and exits

First... THAT SOUNDS LIKE FUCKING WORK!!!
Second... WHY WOULD I BE STUPID ENOUGH TO DO THAT FOR YOU!
Third... IT WOULD FUCK UP MY TRADING, because I can't FOCUS on it.... Cause I'd be POSTING BULLSHIT TO YOU!

When I trade... you know what the point I'm trying to do is.... NOT TRADE!!! I want to Trade as little as I can, and sit and READ SHIT! and Watch Documentaries, and Be a Better Person.

I'm trying to figure out how to get Rigged up to sit on a BEACH with my laptop, with Hot woman in Bikinis Watching my charts and running around playing GRAB ASS!

NOT TELL YOU HOW TO TRADE!

I've been hitting HOMERS for fucking WEEKS!!! BUT THIS IS HOW FUCKING STUPID PEOPLE ARE... NOT ONLY DO I HAVE TO TELL YOU WHAT; COULD AND WOULD HAPPEN, BUT I HAVE TO TELL YOU TO THE SECOND, AND HOW HIGH AND AT WHAT TIMES!.... A FUCKING CRYSTAL BALL YOU THINK i HAVE!!

AND THIS IS WHAT A BUNCH OF CRYBABIES YOU ALL ARE!!! YOU WANT SOMETHING FOR NOTHING! and when one can't do it as Perfectly AS YOU THINK! YOU BITCH.

and it's not YOU ACTING LIKE AN INFANT... BLAMING OTHER PEOPLE BECAUSE YOU DON'T FUCKING UNDERSTAND!.... AND JUST WANT TO BLAME SOMEONE, BECAUSE YOU FUCKED UP!!!

must be Friday... cause I'm cranky!

But it's my blog... and it's all about me getting shit off my fucking chest.


Thursday, November 12, 2009

How about some Chive

I shit you not!

If I sat and gave out the calls, There seriously is someone out there that Parrots Verbatim what I say.


What Kills me! is that this Moron would think that I'll keep doing it.

Please I refer you to the parable "Kill the goose the lays the golden eggs"

I'm working on a Joke about Libritarians... which is a similar tail, You know libritarians, the broke guy who comes over and wants to take home half the Roast you just cooked for dinner.

"Are you sure you want to keep it? I'd be happy to take the leftovers home with me."

then for some mysterious reason, you don't invite them back.... it's some kind of conspiracy, or you are trying to "Take away their rights!"

Expanded Market Share for Wallmart!

Does anyone ever think that good things for wallmart, mean bad things for the U.S. Economy... I mean... it would be good if everyone was NOT shopping at Wallmart.


also good for the market if we were,not buying WMT

Some rant

So.... One problem I have with the blog is that..... I fucking hate you... ok, probably not you, but it's the random Hump that steals my charts and my market read, Then monitizes it for themselves. It's classic Dickhead Finance guy behavior. Objectivism at it's finest, and fuck you and your narsicistic ways, since there are those that believe in trying to help the Tribe, and those assholes who Steal from the Tribe, trying to generate their own wealth.


I'm basically pissed off you do nothing for the tribe! Which is why I try and Be Vague. If you "kind of Know me" and arn't some random hump... IE you are one of T-Lo's Tribe.... I don't mind.

but unfortunately, I can't sit here and give out trade setups and talk specifics about where the market is going... ETC...

I've done that for the past Week, Mostly for Tony's Bennifit. But I also E-mail him and try and give specifics.

The problem is that it's a Waist of my time. That and I get some of my Setups from T-Lo. so it's also unfair to her... But of course since most of you can't see or understand the setups... and need it spelled out for you.... My days are long and to spend an hour working up a Clear post.... just for the Celebrity of it..... Just isn't me.....

Since I fucking hate you, and you can't fucking Trade...

But probably not you!

So, I try not to be specific... and when I talk about sentiment... and I'm just talking about sentiment.

For the most part, I just look at the charts and talk about them.

Rule out the Bump and go

SO....

Seems like there is a reversal pattern out of the dollar.


That is all.... that and all it's Consequences.

could be wrong... maybe another high...

1.49 euro

It's official.... Lower Low!!

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

no confirmation

No bearish confirmation yet..... So I stand Primarily neutral. but "Cloudy with a chance of rain"

what they are thinking

I can suggest that they are thinking that the market will do exactly what it did yesterday...


All I know is that that is what They are probably thinking.

so.... 1.4963

the market is in denial of the moves of the dollar, I'd say it's a good sign. That the market is in solid Denial, and it's very near term bearish.


Oh... and what we want to see is a third test of the 15 and for it to break through, and then we can play with the 60

so...

there is the trap... we will see how it handles after this plays out.... I suspect if the market had been up, I would have seen the Fuck me Eyes between Kudlow and Melissa F!

Levels to watch

the test of top is 110.0 on the spy 1095 on the spx and 1.50 on the Dollar Euro.


other level to watch on the Euro is the bottom of the range or Yesterday's low of 1.440.

we just moved through the 15 20EMA

Test of top

Back to the test of top, I want to point out that the Euro continues to fail on it's test of top. I am officially Slightly Bearish!

Dollar Euro

Like I said the test of top on the Euro is 1.511, and we are in the 1.49992 right now, so far it's a failure, and getting aggressive...


BUT LIKE I SAY!!! WE WANT TO SEE THE BOUNCE!

probably a pull back

and after that we will get a bounce... and we will look at that bounce.... and Ponder....


and see if it can go higher!

Let the Rain Dance Continue!!


Overnight the Dollar-Euro made a new Swing high. I can play a new Vic2b at about 1.511.

But before I think about being anything but the most defensive of Short seller. Is that I want to see a nice bounce after a new Swing low. Which is all the way down at 1.4940... SO once I see that bounce I can think about being a Bear.

Let me also point out that the dollar is about to retest the high from weeks ago, so it will probably retreat before pushing Higher... that is just typical price action.

Other than that it's just RainDancing.
So, here it is, futures are up 10... I doubt they will hold this high and I doubt a trend day. It's obvious to me that the morons got short on the 65 minute downbars yesterday.... and now have to be in Hope Or Puke Mode.

Same thing on the SPX... I want to see the low on the 65 minute broken, then I want to see an upswing. I doubt very much that we will see a trend day... I do think a ton of people will think and try and play a trend day. The only thing I know is that after this uptrend on the 65Min, we will see a downswing that will be larger than the last one.

I'll save you the "This could be the Top" through each of these highs... because we have no idea how many there will be, and each of them could be a top....

But let me remind us..... OF THE 60Min 20EMA, which is HELL AND GONE below us 1082.... That is a Full Trend day Below us.

Sentiment wise, I have yet to see Melissa F. make the Fuck me Eyes at Kudlow. The best thing one can hang a hat on, is the diabolical nature of a failure, or how EVERYBODY knows we are going higher.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

the various vic2b's

this one seems to be right at the 15-20 This being the second time today we have struggled with it.

65 minute low

so... the euro broke the 1.485... but as I suggested it is just enough to peak our interest. So if we could break these 65 minute lows, either with or without making a new high, could very well be a top or swing High.


Let me also add that sometimes it seems to me like the market is moving the dollar, and not the opposite.... but that is just academic.

If->then

so if the market can make and hold below the 15-20EMA without making a new high. I will become Bearish, on the move.... but it will still have to contend with the 60....

If the move in the dollar euro was a flag

some kind of 2 swing correction, it just broke the trend line..


Remember that doesn't actually mean anything... it needs follow through.

1.4946 on the euro

this is enough of a sell off to perk my ears....

finaly some wave 4 action

So.... should get a bounce here.. but the 60 is at 1078... which is unlikly, but would be fucking grim.

I live to tick by tick this sucker

one would expect a bounce off the 20.. my expectation is a failed bounce. Then we can go down and hit the 15-20

vwap and the 20

no vwap on this chart but it's about the same level..


interesting thing is the euro moved from 1.500 to 1.497, in abrupt fashion

Still

good chance of some kind of pullback before the move above 1100

so this is

seems like we are just fucking around with the break out.


what does that mean... you ask.. well seems like there is a good chance of it happening.....

Like I keep saying... we are most probably going higher......

the good trades will involve the 60min EMA... but I have to pay bills until that happens.

still no joy in Currencies


sure we made a new high, but of course I'm playing Real Estate.

see if we can get

a few bars of correction.... Maybe a 65 minute downbar or something.

no hope for rain yet...

vic2B.... and still no joy in currencies

Where are we this morning

Looks like we want to correct. The model would say... it's a Short term correction.... Possible Wave 4 of this move. But it's hard to predict, and we need to see a few 65 minute up bars. following some kind of correction.

Best of The Chive yesterday


going to have to click on the above to read the note!, That or go to the chive to read it. The gist of this is that the professor gave a True False test end of semester. and this kid guessed C, on the whole thing. If you grew up in this family would you want to be the rebel without a cause?

1.4975 euro


down from 1.51 could be an interesting day. 1.45 ish is what i want to see. there are huge gaps in support here. the 60 is still way below... and barely in yesterday's range, the previous Vic 2B is in this chart.

the danger is a 65min bar pullback, then bounce to new highs.... We shall See

1.4950

Watching the Almighty buck, new short term highs.


but we have a bit of a low overnight at 1.4950.

Again, I'm just saying that is a currency point that could Perk my interest.

Monday, November 9, 2009

no chart

Sitting here watching the Dollar/Euro... I think it should be stated Dollar-Euro, and not Dollar Euro... more of my obsessive syntax.


So. 1.49 is previous resistance....and when I look at a "POSSIBLE" bear flag, that is the trend line, which would need to be tested for the reversal..

BTW this is hell and gone from the 1.499 level it's currently trading. But

seems like I wouldn't get excited about selling the market until I see that level... and I'd still be very cautious until it trades under 1.48.

I was looking at the 15-20EMA and the 60.... and they are also Hell and gone below us....

Making me make bullshit predictions

Everybody Knows we are going to new highs..... YeeeeHaaaaa


Of course Terranova said nothing about the super spike... maybe that is the diabolical thing, (sarcasum BTW), but it's easy to avoid.

So, we have solid bullishness, and this Weak Dollar Meme... FEELS like the weak dollar ME has Orgasmed.... It will be , interesting to see some Morning bullishness as well. Real Euphoria!

I mean.... seriously Rosenberg and gold

I'm not going to waist a raindance on double top, test of top... Superspike.... Nazdaq 2K.

But this is easy.... see it start testing the 15Period 20EMA's then see it break to the 60 bounce and fail......

only thing that would suck, is if it did something else....

hey look

a vic 2 b.... OF THE THIRD WAVE!!! if this can fail, we can see a Wave 4 pullback.... THEN after MAYBE we can see a TOP!.....

There are about 4 more steps to seeing some kind of TOP! Other than that stick with the 20 Period EMA's

Not sure why I didn't take off today

I hear Rosenberg has a $2700 price target on gold. So there is still no decent spot to get short the market, and this wave 3 action.... so we need to get rid of the wave 4 and 5 before we make those decisions. Could be the greatest contrary indicators and maybe I'm trying to curse it. but seems like a solid chance we will run through Friday or next Monday.

The new and improved Vic2B

the 15Period-20 EMA is about 1077. We probably have to go through the 5-20EMA first... Just a crazy assumption.

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"