I guess I need to post something.
My feeling overnight was that we needed a good denial phase... sort of a "Dubai is fine... nothing to worry about here", then over 3 months it clobbers us, it and about 50 other things.
Here I sit, and we have relatively flat futures.... I think "They" will come in and sell it ... If We are going to follow them, look to bail on price action at 11, then a rebound.... Maybe...
They flew Erin off to Dubai for some reason... probably to have her hair blow every which way... Has she heard of Scrunchies? how about finding spots for her "Stand-up" without wind....
Just saying.
The missed Dubai thing is that though liquidity is being provided to the banks, this doesn't eliminate the default.
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Futures well off the overnight highs and now trading below or just at Friday's close.
Your comment on Friday about so many people calling a top may work against the bears this week. We may have over the next few weeks just an indolent churn with a slight downward trajectory. This would punish both bulls and bears.
Diabolical. Erin went to check on all the poor camels being abused in the UAE.
Ya, I kind of surprised that we don't blow out the Bears from the Friday open, this morning... sort of a finish on a gap fade, from the Friday open.
so maybe that will be the game today.
Europe Sold off on Thursday, then sold again on Friday, rebounded into a Pause, then sold again this morning..
one would also think we would follow their lead.
I just think that we need to sell... and know the reason later...
not whatever that was...
but I also think that a sense that we are selling for some other reason besides dubai... that would make sense.
There are just a lot of people convinced that this is 1982 all over again. The chance to buy.
And there is just enough worry to keep sentiment from bubbling over. it's really a set up for some churn over a fairly long time frame.
(My call for long term churn is probably the signal for an abrupt crash. lol.)
isn't it interesting that they never say "it's 1944" or "1845 spain" or "1957"..
it's always 2004 or 1990 or 1975 or 1982
god damn groundhog day
Good point. "Recency bias."
But I have heard people (Barry Ritholtz, Niall Ferguson, and others) who have gone back as far as the 1930's... bear market rally.
But, sure, why not look at the 1760's or 400AD?
Maybe the issue will be that Bernanke, Paulsen and Geithner did learn something from the 1929-33 period and provided massive liquidity from Oct 08 to now, so we DID avoid the crushing unemployment and deflation that killed us in the 1930's. Their expedition prevented the longer lasting economic pain.
The bull case: Yeah, there are bubbles in certain asset classes (gold, commodities, emerging mkts), but they are relatively tiny and can be wound down fairly easily.
The bear case: the fed and Congress will fuck this up somehow, we just don't know how. Or there will be a black swan (Dubai? other sovereign funds? something completely off the radar?) that will torch the market... because that is what is bound to happen with this much gasoline, fertilizer and dirty rags laying around.
It's more a Doctoral Thesis, than something I could cover here. I've heard mamis suggest that the thing that always surprises them is for something to happen that they have no institutional memory of.... IE Real Estate price Decline, Secular Bear, Non V bottoms. there are only a few old drunks that can remember anything else...(art Cashin)
then there are those who were Teens in the 1970's who think "It's just like the 70's." this is all fucking "Great Society" coming round again... of course their thesis would be more valid if they suggested we were in 1962 instead of 72 or 75..
Then you also have to remember that we only started accumulating economic data after the great depression.
It's very hard to have a model when you only have 3 secular bears and 15 recessions(or so) as samples.
So obviously its 1970 1930 or 1950...
but it's once in a hundred year flood... so once we have a sample of say 3 deflationary deathspirals..
then we could suggest that it will trade like one of those... which we have no record of...
I guess what I'm banging the table on is that it's going to be something else... and hope that instead of an 80% total decline in the market, we have done better....
maybe we can move sideways in a range for some years... while we move the pig through the python..
where is that range? good question.
11K-8k? 14K-8K?
But with limited growth...I'd think PE contraction.
Nial Ferguson is engaged in the worst of all top calling "top of a civilization" You know the British had 300-400 years, and the Spanish and French also had similar multi Century Reigns..
but apparently north america only gets 40 years
It always seems that Ferguson is still carrying the royal grudge against us unwashed colonists and he relishes a bit too much in our recent tribulations.
But he is correct on one issue: the US has not missed any opportunity to upset our own gilded apple cart; this crisis is our own. Ferguson's Shaedenfreude seems a bit too enjoyable... and, as you said, top-calling western civilization is a bold move.
all those documentaries are worth watching a few times.
I just think he is thrilled to know that things are cyclical(how Galileo of him) and at one point ya, things will evolve.
Like Congress who want to blame the Fed or Banks, instead of looking within, People don't want to realize that our financial system is a Global one.
we arn't Decoupled we are more coupled by the day. The chinese are welcome to buy the debt of whoever they want... and nobody is beholden to them for their Buying it.
It's like if I sell a car... and some how I'm indebted to the dumb ass who purchased it for the rest of my life.... not going to happen.
Just as all my Networking clients, the minute they think I owe them anything besides a "Good Job"... They can go fuck themselves... see if they can find someone better somewhere else.
So fucking china can go buy Dubai debt.....
and all the Imbeciles who think "they own us"..... they are a bunch of morons who only have the most rudimentary understanding of markets and economics.
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