Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Damn

130 point reversal in 10 minutes.... Wholly Shit!!! Betting on some shitty jobs numbers?

Apparently there is a rumor MBIA may cut the rating... This is getting as old as the overnight rate cut rumor......

LOL it's an S&P Equity downgrade... I'm starting to think S&P is short MBIA......as a hedge, against getting sued. they Reiterated it....... Talk about manipulation.


Eh!!!! I've got a little man love for charlie Gasparino, nothing I want to see more than S&P gone after. Fuckheads, and I quote SEC fool.
"the SEC has no regulatory authority over MBS"

wait a minute Securities and exchange commission, mortgage backed securities....?? no authority huh??.... doesn't understand how it works... Sounds like lazy government fat heads to me....

table money

I'll take some money off the table, probably 1/4 cash

overweight financials
equal weight materials
overweight Ag
equal weight cash

more realistic?

how if we settle at 138 waiting for the NFP.... and move from there in the morning.

NFP is negative, again futures are negative, we still trade up. This is the bullish signal that gets everyone into the market in the 1450.... then the axe comes.


this is 2 days SPY.
Green shows the impulse wave we finished(Macro-Wave1). Yellow is a correction or (macro wave2)
Then we have The white wave(wave 1, micro) of the (macro Wave 3).
Hypotheticly this takes us into 1450 SPX
Bearish... Yellow is wave A correction. White is Wave B, and the blue is developing wave C.... Then we get yet another Impulse....
No clue about the jobs number tomorrow....
it will play out one way or another
Chris Dodd is a moron...

Technials

besides weak volume... I see little bearish in the charts.

there are possible cup and handles, inverted head and shoulders... all kinds of bullish indicators throwing us into th 1450's on the spx

I'm not saying it, things can go wrong..... this market is crazy.

i looked for wedge reversals, and I'm not seeing it.....

it's time for massive "contrarian" moves, They will be misguided... and it will fail.... but a retest of the upper descending trend line, makes every bit of sense.... We violate the down trend channel, then we test the up side of the trade channel. This is very normal trading.....

A failure at 1500 even is very Bearish... and we may make another new low.... 1530, would mean a retest of the low, which will succede... and the bear may be done.....

This is just my Chart Astrology, I've been wrong, and I'll be wrong again.

Peoples bank

pbct......

definatly a bank to look into.

If the bears can manage to wreck the market, after some research I'll consider buying it.

Not to be an asshole

But I do declaire....

it's not possible I'll lose money on a trade is it?

My word.... the Horror......

This looks to me like profit taking... good things are down the most...

I'm not saying this sell off has no legs... but...... Come-on... Bring the heat.

Ouch

70+k in more unemployment claims.

I heard it again... how the small banks were going to have MBS write downs....

This is stupid... as a bank why would you buy the premium attached to a mbs, instead of loaning more money.

There are some of the small bankers who looked at the securitisation, and thought it was a joke. I'll say it again, this stuff was disclosed quarters ago.... go through conferences, and if they didn't disclose worry.

There are certainly some, who will have some exposure... but nothing like Citi and morgan....
BBT *cough*...


it's a bear run.

but that unemployment number sucks!!!

Well Game on today. See if I put on a short hedge.

recession

Airline Analyst says we have averted recession....... Hang on, going for a ride....

futures

How did fair value end up +50?

where is climbing the wall of worry?

Funny though, the fed has given the market exactly what it wants.... now, will it be a case of "be careful what you ask for? you may surely get it."

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

acording to rumor

the boogie man is coming.

Same boogie man? yep...

according to my charts, we have a B wave correction followed by an A impulse.

I'm exhausted, more at the thought that

A. I'm going to have to listen to the 6K Dow Crowd for a few days, as they continue to lick their own asses, after getting it put to them for 8 days.

B. I'm just not going to be some kind of asshole trader, running back and fourth day after day, chasing my own tail.

My two trading rules are; Never Chase and Never trade on emotion. I picked up these shares fairly at 11500(ish), And I'm not bumbling them anticipating Armageddon.

Citi deserves to go to "zero"
Morgan........ "Zero"
anyone who was involved in this nightmare... deserves to take their lumps.

Regardless of a retest or a failed retest I have cash, I'll put to work if we fail... other than that I'll stand. Weak dollar plays like my materials, will keep this market up.

Bumbling around like a chicken without a head is going to destroy any gains you have... But is very bearish.

I've played the game of trying to catch every up and down in the market, and it isn't worth it. And we need much scarier stuff than this for us to see 6K Dow.

Hindsight...

I intended to mention that the "Easy money in the financials was probably behind us at Tuesday's close."

I'm in it long.... Ready to take some Bond Ratings pain with the rest of the financial longs. But my banks own no CDOs, so they will take it in the ass unfairly.

I'd like to see how they perform with the indexes pulling back

Mitt Romney

His big Claim to fame.

"I've had a JOB, I'm the only of our aristocracy, that is running, who has ever had one!!!! Vote for me for emperor!!!!"

Re test

we hit 76.4 retrace... Curious where it will lead.... I can't imagine we won't find buyers

134.5
132.5

130

Pixies baby Pixies

nice market action....

That is called short covering on those that took a short position based on a .25

Seen the Peso? 1.487

ouch... look for 1.5... that is the record....

and my bet? Short the dollar after this move. 1.51 1.52 where ever it ends.

music

You know what this day needs... a little Sonic Youth

Waiting for the axe

I've made money every time the fed has cut by going short... and this time... I'm long...

We were at 1500 then we are in the 1350's now......

I find the irony funny.

so, sitting here waiting for the axe.

Oh... what do I think the fed should do....probably cut .25

will I bleed out? a bit.

but my book wants the .75

More of my book

if this sell off maintains, we will price in the .25 to see us down 150 on the Dow by the fed release... would be interesting....

I just can't see us not pricing in the disappointment.... We have seen it before.....

but, I'm just talking my book.

Talking my book

.... My guess is a quarter out of the fed will lead to a small sell off, then we should recover.... Like I said, something that works twice shouldn't work the third time. The last time the fed came in we were in the 1500 range..... But we are in the 1300s

The 11500 range that we hit last week is significant support... Unless we get into a depression we shouldn't see 10K or 9K.... Remember the 1987 crash happened at 8K.... with inflation the Dow is worth every bit of that.... Remember stocks go up with inflation.

But all of this is just me talking my book.

Now I don't get why the market expects so large a cut... we did get a .75 seems like that is a fairly large cut... I suspect that it's more the banks expecting it... It wouldn't surprise me to see the fed stick it to the market.

could be a great chance to go short.

mixed medaphores

Steve Leisman just mixed shakespeare with Melville... it's early maybe I'm wrong.

this Uncle ben / shakespear thing needs to stop.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

que market denial

durable goods number, enough of a nugget of good data that we may not want to slit our equities wrists.... yet.

Need coffee!!! no coffee yet!!! Full pot, no cup.



I'm starting to ponder the idea of a 3 month rally.....

Look a chart of the SPY over 4 months.... Blue line resistance 142 red line 149...

also no longer oversold.

Fibonacci 146.1

Let me just say it.... Elliot wave says we have another new low.... When you ask? yes great question... Trade channel calls it 140(unshown).... I'm dubious.

Prediction.... Sell this open.... I'm not betting it... but the futures don't seem sustainable.

Alright the commercials are working on me .... I want to jump Valerie Bertenelli.

Going to read through this this morning

The Financial Accelerator and the Credit Channel

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.

Purportedly 1930's credit and business cycle declining, and it's synergy in th economy.

Reflate

Most worrisome for me, is the idea that we are going to try and reflate housing prices..... it just sounds like the dumbest thing in the world to.... attempt.

Just bleed off a year and a half of that inflation.. it just has to happen.

more normal trading day

well this is being more of a normal trading day.
Of course besides read the papers, don't have much to do...

make coffee, ... how about poached eggs for breakfast....

State of the union... I watched Larry Kudlow... worked up into a solid Republican fervor... Fucking supply siders... supply stealer's? Clueless that without the middle class there is no one to buy the supply..... so supply side all you want..

guess it's time to learn it.

Makes me want to become the For most expert on the manufacturing of guillotines.

I never say this .... Green economy jobs my ass.

Monday, January 28, 2008

Bear runs in everything

As we start calming down this week, and hopefully we don't violate that last low.... or our target is mid 1450 roughly.

Emotionally I'm still fairly wrecked from the past few weeks, but I'm starting to refill emotionally... Full disclosure... I'd love to see another follow through day on today.. like 100-150 pts tomorrow.

Admittitly sell the fed, has worked twice... but my mantra is... once something works twice.. look for it to fail the third time.. at least to perform differently.

I was tempted about buying McDonald's today... good looking bear run...

I keep hearing about the "consumer non cyclicals is dead" .... I find this trade to be "going long" when the market is going down.... IE... it's a way to go short .... only your going long. as long as the market is going up... the safety players will be rolling out of JnJ and into other stuff.... but when the market turns back down... I expect this trade to be alive again.

Melissa Lee just threw a smack down on Dennis Kneale... I can't believe that she could smack down anyone......

Inside baseball

I'm not all that key to share some stuff with this blog. But old Eric felt like he may be having a heart attack about 3-4 years ago, while playing a video game... took a walk and could maybe do 100 yards.... Kind of a wake up call for me... that was damn near 4 years ago to date.

Now I exercise, and lament the couch potato lifestyle that I was once the king of...

Though I gave them up 2 years ago.... Damn that Big Mac on TV looks good....

There is an element to any diet of not depriving yourself.... I suspect I'm to lazy to go get one.

Seriously

I'm just drinking my first cup of coffee.

If we run to the close... I may take a little something off the table.

I'm not sure about this less than .50 will be a dissapointment.... This may just be bond market speculation..... I'd maybe say that equities are looking for knowing that the fomc is going to help.

I also like "Housing numbers bad?!!! Suprise!!???" we just got to the point where Maybe things wern't getting worse... Unfortunatly it's still getting worse..

Good news for me, I'm hoping to buy some distressed properties soon... I was thinking september october.

Nap while trading

WTF with Mcey D's... should have listened to the conference call.....

I swear I don't know about all of you but the past weeks have put the serious hammer on me... Ive eased up on the coffee and am just ready for this market to heal up ... These moves are crazy...

I was reflecting this weekend about how ridiculous this volatility was. Of course when it flattens out.. it's going to be time to go short :)

I was looking at charts, and doing Elliott waves is rough right now.

I think we will muddle here abouts 1340 till the FOMC.... maybe even the NFP.

I am also running through ideas about how to trade if the FOMC is done with gradualism.

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Portfolio madness

... I'm not a big long time holder of stock.... This makes me very tempted.

the origional Plan was to pick up financials and own only them at this point. roll them over and wait for the next cycle.

I'm wondering if we will heal the market up at this level... and start moving up for a few months...

Think the recession isn't real...

the Mad Cabbie says it's so...... and has a fool proof metric

Saturday, January 26, 2008

2 days

.....
It's interesting to think... Since October.... There are 2 days you could have purchased stock, and you would be up....
Stock per stock... it's slightly different... But roughly.....2 days in 3 months

Lightning in a bottle....

after my retreat

My meditative.... Market wana make me Pukie couple weeks. My Zen Retreat with the market in the corner of my eye. yesterday was nice... I was hoping to keep it going all weekend.

Then after the close, turning it all off, having a nice evening out... Getting the most Brilliant sleep last night that I haven't had since September.

What Am I doing today... blog reading about ... everyone Else's view on market action.

Also, a friend called me about his portfolio this week... I talked to him, calmed him down... then I called his home to talk to him, about being more pro-active, and less Re-active on his portfolio.....
talked to his wife..... asked him to call me.....

anyone know how this will end?

He won't call me until the next time he wants to be Re-active, he will talk to me about being Pro-active..... at which time it will be the wrong time to be pro-active..... pro meaning Before...
Other thing is, I have little time for paniked investment advice when the market is panicing.

Perfect example of buying the top, and the disservice our emotions serve us in trading. If you notice, my blog is called "Buying the Top"... I have the same emotions as everyone else.. not to use too much of a pop culture reference. but like George Costanza you have to do the opposite of your impulse... I swear every time I'm optimistic about the economy, that is when the market tanks.... and I use my emotions as a warning sign that I need to do the opposite.

Another note, if the market looks week for another day, I'm going to toss some weaker positions. I have a ton of faith that my purchases are .... Epic good positions... but some of them are not quite performing.... and if you assholes kill the market I want some cash... or a short hedge. There are some stinkers in the new portfolio... but overall, it's an amazing portfolio of stock...

Nice Correction

Lots of questions?

Reversal of near term trend?

Continued Distribution....consolidation.

Wave 2 of a 5 wave uptrend...

Wave B of a 3 leged correction.

I havn't gotten so much sleep since Xmas...

I'm going to ignore everything stock market related till sunday.

I've had it with it. Just going to pretend it doesn't exist for a few days....

Friday, January 25, 2008

this morning.

The spike up this morning can be considered a complicated Elliot wave.... Maybe not.... If we correct 3 waves: Down, Up, then down........... Then probably another impulse 5 waves. The market has run very hard..... I know everyone is tired. Including me...my

(I posted this to the wrong place)

Update.....

we would correct when I'm trying to do a zen Buddhist retreat/Exercise meditation

I know I'm talking my book....

we hit one of the down trend lines at the open and are going to correct. but I'd watch for a place to get long when it's done, because we will trend up again... Then we hit the Real resistance at the 1400 point.... That is when the real correction should happen.... This is a baby correction.... IMHO

But a fun retest would prove that I earned all this free money I have this week.....

if this was all free, why do I feel like I've been beaten with a pillow case of oranges?

wait for all the near term trend lines to get violated to go long. 132.4 target???? maybe

seriously zen Buddhist retreat.... With exercise.

Bears

I don't mean to criticize.... But a real bear.... is supposed to be a Value investor, not someone waiting for Armageddon. as much as a nice Armageddon or true reckoning would be....

The idea that you see stocks trading at 3/4 book should make you drool. and surfing through to find some great companies, should be your number one concern... Value investing.....

Hopefully that is how
I am as a bear..... P/E of over 20 make me want to puke.....
I'm a Value Boy ;)

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Crash

After weeks of high volatility trade... I've finally crashed... It's been a lot... I'm hoping for a slow Friday.... nice weekend...

.... I just need the market to muddle or go up would be nice....

I'm so sorry.... Armageddon isn't a trading strategy.... no matter how much I believe in it...

..... Craziest life I've ever lived..... I really do earn my money.

I love, in a sort of weird way that I can talk out of both sides of my ass...... Bull vs. Bear.... Switch hitting.

it's just stage 2 of denial.... we are back to it.....

One of these days I'm going to catch the knife, just for fun.... Crazy idea, in retrospect.

not only can I keep my emotions from blowing out my ass... but I can tend to keep the nonsense at Bay.... I mean... is the noise from the stock market any louder than the voices in my head?

I think not!!!!

Ok, Some thoughts on Friday trading.... If we run, at the end of the day, I'll take some profits. Lighten up some..... We hit the OG downtrend line soon... and we should correct..... I have no idea how far.... we could even Retest....

I do have a sneaking suspicion that we will run to the end of the month... My guess is this correction will just be a reason to scare out some weak holders... but an ok reason to lighten up, then see if I can reload a little.

No more markets

Wool socks, Tennis and Jazz!!!!! and books.

Position update

overweight financials
heavyweight materials
Overweight agriculture.
Light weight cash...

I'm actually letting them run naked without stops.

Letting this stuff run....

my projection today is +150.... this is based on nothing but speculation, and my borderline Autistic mind.... It's looking higher.

Who thinks paulson looks like lurch addams family

how is that Peso doing?

It will be rough to get the fed to keep the ease going if the ECB doesn't join in.... But is suspect UK, Spain and France will Crack the Spine of the Euro Bank.

It's WWI that caused the "Wheelbarrow of money" and we are at threat not Europe.

I am happy to be disagreed with.... Just be a pro.

I'm just worked.... I could use a week off.

Ben Steinery.....

If, this Jerome Kerviel BULLSHIT, was a Straw that caused a panic in an already Freaked out market.......

The math runs this way..... it Caused an Unatural low, so the Natural low was more 11,700 and not 11,500... and was MORE of a SHAKE out than was needed.........

Who is to Hypothosise that we wernt' working on a natural capitulation low at 12,000......

If you want suposition, and Random What if, Thinking.....

It Should be embolding to think that it Triggerd more panic than should have happened....

FURTHERMORE.

It is possible that Uncle Ben isn't a Gradualist, which shows his reluctance to cut earlier.....His hero is Milton Friedman who coined the phrase "fool in the shower"..... It is quite possible that the plan at the meeting was to cut .75 or a full point.... and are willing to rapidly cut more and just get it out of the way.

Maybe Killing Gradualisum at the fed is the Key, Get buisnesses to realize that there is a "Window" that they can borrow in in recessions, and they either get on it or loose out.

But instead of waiting for Dow 8k, they decided to Stem the panic, so as to not create instability in the stock market, and spend 6 months picking it up..... or maybe 11k was the bottom.

As much as the Perma Bears don't want to hear it, Uncle Ben is all about SAVINGS, and is doing what he can to Encourage it.

He is a Numismatist ((Lat. numisma, nomisma, a coin; from the Greek, derived from voµi eiv, to use according to law), is the scientific study of currency and its history in all its varied forms) He understands the gold, and silver standard, has studied the federal reserve and it's roll in our lives.

IT is going to take some time to get used to him....
As I remarked the Greenspan mess is partaily due to his concerns about Deflation.... Which very well could have caused the majority of the great depression.... But he is also concerned about inflation.......
This is all Great and Rational.... he may not be a great leader, but We may be able to get used to him........


Significant Upside Resistance to the upside on the Daily time frame over the past months

3 days... Wave's 1 and 2 completed.... I suspect this wave will end at 1400, we get a correction, then maybe a 5 wave impulse... maybe even sideways motion.
How come Dennis Kneale get's to go to Davos.

Today's trade channels... Umn also the downside supports

sleeping in is nice

.... I have barely slept for a week or 2.... sleeping in this morning was nice... always good to hear one trader and destroy a company.

I want to go to davos next year and try and ..... Becky and maria.... I bet I'm the first one with that plan. but it's a good fantasy..

I've had a becky thing since she said she likes zombie movies..... And I love a good zombie movie, who am I kidding I love a bad zombie movie.

I've set up defensive this morning... ready to realize half the gains I've made, but I wholeheartedly believe we will run...

Coffee, and I'll work on some charts.

Australian open update

Hoooo-Raaaaa

Number 2 seed, Rafa Nadal from spain, was just defeated in straight sets by a new Phenom Frenchman Tsanga....

Viv-La France.... a new hope for a male French Tennis Champion!!!!

Hezzzzaaaa!!!

Trend line Analysis

roughly ......



alright I call it Chart-astrology.



WOW!!! the Russel is down..... What is every sucker shorting that?... That could be due for a huge short covering pop!! or underlying weakness. Interesting divergence.



Here is today on the SPY... The green refers to the SPY in it's Third wave.. There are the left you can see the second wave correction... I expect we will test the lower green trend line then jump up to the red trend line... and we then bounce into a correction.....

Will we retest green probably?... Will it hold... I don't know

It's all just a guess.....

Bullish to 1400

does that guys stock Scammer guy.. what ever his name is from Europe, sound like..."I have a great plan, assuming the market always goes up?"

So, I'm bullish... a little low volume today... IWM weak... not the best things in the world....

D-Fence....

Still

Makes me sick to be a bull.... but seriously the max downside to the market is 40% in a down trend.... have to play both ways.

I'm to exhausted from the past 2 weeks to give a crap.... I dont' want to see 2 days of hard won gains die in then next few days...

damn bear markets.

don't want to see a retest either.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

good lord

I'm so bullish on the stock market right now I can't sleep.... to be honest I always feel like this is a counter argument....

What is funny is when I feel optimistic about the state of the U.S. Economy.... That is the time I go for a walk, and decide.... ok, time to get short.... I'm dead serious... it scares the shit out of me when it happens.

Ok, it's 12:07 my time 2:am eastern... I'll have trouble getting up.... but I will work out a chart...

but we just started wave 3 to the upside. I expect a standard 5 wave move. then a correction, then another 5 wave move... this will bring us between to about 1450... then we come back.

But.... This could go off like a Foul ball. But I also expect this first move to go till Tuesday, then correction through NFP... then continuation of the up move.

I will work up a chart......

Let me cover..... I hate this economy, I hate the market, I'm a total Bear.... But it doesn't make me money. To the moon Alice!!!!!!

I may even sleep in.

I had to call a friend, It's that friend who wishes I would manage his retirement...

"Hey"
"I just wanted to let you know that it's over.... Near Term"
"oh good, I was hemmoraging money like mad"
"ya, we should rally for a while... maybe a week maybe a month or 3 so, if your thinking about reallocating your portfolio, that will be the time...."
"would you call me then?"
"sure roughly, I umn just figured you would be relieved to know."
"Ya, I do appreciate it."

What is So Fucking Ironic, is how aaple used to show a small top in the market, or give it a little spike, and this time it just got Pounded, and gave us the lower low off the bottom.

Blood

.... I got stopped out on some stuff :)

My financials are ripping, I realized my entry point sucked today, I'm not charting aggressively enough .... did some re-entrys..... which are running follow stops....

Did I mention Hyped up Nasdaq Bullshit?????? who made that call???

Instead of aggressively long, I'm now looking for a short term trade.

As much as some may hope for a crash... some of these individual Tickers are Terrible, and reflect a mitigated crash.....
mitigated?

I was hoping for a good verification of a Bull trend today, and we are still very neutral. free cash will be used to bottom fish financials.....

Update(funny cause I'm to busy to post)

I just took some profits, killed some runners. get some cash in my pocket for the big crash. and make up for the small losses I took. Set some solid stops so that if we get some rough trading, I'll just wash out.....

Except financials... I continue to lean overweight cash or overweight financials.

I just did a massive entry point..... I'm all long, have stops in place.....

Looking good. Agg and materials....

umn.....

the financial entry points seem to be in the morning panic. I may jump in for more financials.

Nothing says action like action

As Eyore sits around waitng for armageddon.

I banged out a few nice letters to my represntatives last night, to explain our circumstances, and sugjest some possible actions.

Nothing says economic action like the threat of a 2000 down day. Then I got a very poorly timed call this morning.....

Nothing says, I'm a busy fucking guy than when you put your congressman on hold...... for 30 seconds.

He had some questions...

Heath Ledger

Heath Ledger died!!!

What a tragidy.... another burn out to a life lived to hard on the edge?

It's a spooky market

but I purchased monsanto and my bank is up BIG...

I could be wrong, it could be going to Zero

I decided to hang onto monsanto for a bit. Don't know if that is till the end of the day or a couple.

I'm stopped out break even... even pluss a hundred bucks for my trouble. ;)

Have I mentioned I hate day trading....

Retest

Lets see how that goes...

another bite at the apple....no pun

Orderly decline

I can't throw out a chart, As much as it would be fun to exploit a market crash... I just think that an orderly decline would be better for our market, global economy.

I keep hopeing we will at least test the trend line.

Other than that, Blake Federer this morning.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Being short

so, everyone knows I'm a bit of a switch hitting Bear/Bull.... I'm sorry I'm sorry.... apologise it doesn't' agree with your Thesis/dogma... I know "market is going to 0 and you are getting every piece of it...."

I realized when I went short, as I researched every bear for the past 100 years, that.... the downside is 10-40%.... well, I can't have 40% returns over 2-4 years.

Even double short, that barley covers inflation, especially the inflation of the fed taking the rate to 0%, It occurred to me that I needed to ride the roller coaster, and have some alternate strategies, one of which will be shorting retail aggressively this year.... Xmas is going to suck..... Regardless of the Rallies we may get. The other was going long small financials at these quarterly earnings.. Which BTW will quite possibly be the first long in a Great portfolio I'm building.

But some investors say, you can't catch the top or the bottom, it's the middle you try and catch. forget the rest.... roughly a T-boon Pickens quote.

You know what I love, we are getting the hard core investors out, the ones that can trade through any environment, and they give such great advice.

My point is, there is no way to just stay short the indexes through this. Clearing up positions is Key.. you can live in "What could have been", but worse is dealing with unrealized gains when a position turns into a loser. having dry powder to exploit things through this is going to be Key.

anyone think I should listen to the earnings call of one of the banks I own.?

What a long Tuesday....

Like I say, I'm not here to be right about macro economics, and I'm super bearish on the economy.......

But it doesn't pay me to be "Correct" it pays me to be correct about the market motion.

And we have the sleepy Giant a little less Blurry eyed... These are good things.

Unless your hoping for Armageddon, and if you are get some exercise and talk to someone.

Financial armageddon isn't good for anyone, and you will be surprised how bad it will be for you and your friends and family.

be part of the solution not part of the problem.

my bank list

cnb
bbt
rf
hban
cfr
hban
tcb
cbsh

they are probably going to Zero

BBT does have some Bank Steinery.

1987

I'm just curious how that 1987 playbook is working for everyone?

Henin, Bagled 0-6 in the second set.... and packs her bags and goes home.....
sharapova almost assured the Australian open title, only venus williams, and jelana jancovich. stands in her way.

I'm very sad!

Markets Flash Red

... I was doing reading this weekend, to try and make some sense about why the hell this market would be this bad. and I read that sometimes markets flash red, like a child who needs a diaper change or who need some milk. They are just trying to get everyone's attention.

Like the Verizon commercial "DO YOU HEAR ME NOW!"

it's psychological. As much as I'll be defensive and look at 8k levels "if you like it at 11k, you will love it at 8k"

There is little concern I have that we won't bounce hard. Also Right or Wrong, it won't matter, if Uncle ben doesn't cut rates, he will be out on his ass by the end of the week. Cut or not cut.

Like I've said, "Lead, follow... get out of the way."

Funny thing, I will have a hard time not buying something. I mean, just to say I purchased stock on Black Tuesday.

Now if Henin doesn't pull this match out, I'm going to be very angry.


This chart says 1200 on the SPX
:)
not that I say buy, but if I look for opportunities it will be in high dividend yield, or MUST OWN market leaders, or Consumer non cyclical.
Sudden reversals are possible, but this feels like destruction that will take much time to heal.
Sharapova is trying to beat my baby!!!! Henin..... I won't be a happy camper if that happens.
I did see Serina williams get beat, that was good. Felt like a retirement match... Either that or Serena needs to get some coaching.

Monday, January 21, 2008

Big Picture... I can't take that site right now.... I forget how fucking crazy some people are.

Things don't look great for the open, but that won't be the first time.

If the sell off accelerates... there is no reason to step in front of it. just get ready to pick up the pieces, when it's all over. But if I read about Armageddon from chicken little, I'm going to puke. Besides being monumentally Stupid!!!, It's why Pussies are Pussies, they have no ability to manage their emotions. I'm not saying you can control your emotions, but you sure as hell can not act like a chicken with it's head cut off.

It's what causes stuff like this, U.S. Economic Slowness, doesn't mean Coke, can't sell Coke.

some of that stuff is more appropriate for Religious Armageddon chat boards.

Keep your shit together Girls... Opportunity continues to avail opportunities.

There is every chance that things will be fine in the morning, Europe getting freaked out is what we need to cut rates.

Wish I had kept my short hedge on.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

uncle Ben!

Sorry, I'm re-reading the story from The Times........

On virtually every topic of significance — how to prevent deflationary panics, for instance, or to gauge the effect of Fed moves on stock-market prices — Bernanke wrote one of the seminal papers. Essays on the Great Depression

Thus the dictum that inflation would lead to jobs was out. According to the new thinking, low inflation is consistent with, and even a prerequisite for, reaching whatever the economy’s potential is.

Bernanke is also firmly opposed to the notion that central banks should raise rates to prick bubbles in the stock market or elsewhere. In a paper written at the height of the dot-com mania, in late 1999, Bernanke and his friend

I do have to say that I strongly disagree with this, if the fed has a mandate to Stimulate the economy, They also have a mandate to rein in Credit Driven Bubbles, be they Stock or Housing. Its a Yin Yang thing, Universal balance must be maintained. An argument can be made that "it's not part of the mandate, but... Just because it's not your job, you have a responsibility to act to stop massive obvious destruction, Rein in a destructive market. whether through direct fed actions or through use of your obvious roll for leadership of the economy. "When you drive a car, and someone makes a mistake and almost hits your car, you do have a moral responsibility to avoid killing them, Regardless of if it is or is not your job."

Overall, I can see that he realizes that he is walking a Razors edge, He knows it too. I don't believe that they were asleep at the wheel, I think they were and are properly worried about inflation.

Ben Bernake

Like many who are trying to guess the next fed move.... Like I say it's a placebo, and numerous times I've said it would be best if the fed put off the rate cuts as far off as they can.

I've warmed up to the idea of them doing a one and done, or Literally saying you get 3.5% for 2 months, after that it's going back to 4.5%..... Except, won't the banks just hang onto the money, then loan it out at tighter rates later.... I don't know.

I'd think so highly if Ben putts off cutting rates till the meeting.

What I think the fed should do and what the fed will do, are two different things. I think that Ben may be calling the market's bluff. a game of chicken that the market may be losing.... Without a tragic episode in market action that actually Locks up the Credit market.... He will probably hold steady, I'd like to hope.

It's best for this economy, but may put a hurt on my Market bets.... but

It will be fun to watch.

I keep hearing people talk about the market and the market action.... This is what I think.... This isn't' going to trade like the 87 crash, the 74 stagflation, the 1907 panic or 1929 crash..... The August dip, the December dip, The 2000 Bear...

I was doing some historic charting, and news tracking.... so many massive sell offs in the market involve violent Reversals.. Sure it's impending doom,but it doesn't make me money.

Saturday, January 19, 2008

good lord

Did I say that Kudlow agrees with me..... That is scarry...

I have been running charts.... and they say 11K

I have some that say 127 on the SPY short term

Near term this is what I'm looking at.... Pull back to 135.5 +/- on the SPY... Then we go to 127

Then we take my 3 day bounce... maybe a head and shoulders reversal....Then it starts again.....

I'm so sick of charting.

Friday, January 18, 2008

... I'm starting to suspect that like a thief in the night... that just ended, everyone short, pulled their short bid waiting for "THE BOTTOM", and Near Term it happened... The flow changed, and we rally till the fed....
does that sound strange? it feels right though....

something so anticipated, is just going to let everyone down.

Something too anticipated... just has to fail

ok...... Damn I'm tired... I may chase this move at 2:30 to cover this short.... see how low this goes.... I bet it's longs getting out of their positions early.

One long fucking week...... damn

Daytrading.... I hate it... I just want to sit back and mellow out

ok just killed it

ok

stopped out, and I jsut took some shorts.

Good job ben... You fucking moron!! build up the markets expectations then pull the rug out you fucking fool...
I'm day trading it.. we will see

This market is Fragile.... I just placed some stopps on some materials at 1% gains....

The market hates spitzer that bad!!!!!!!

I'm all serious today

I'just dumped my index longs... it was a waist of my cash, and I'll free better having some money to exploit if we run to the floor.

and monsanto just stopped me out with a 5.5% win.

and killed my index longs.....

I want to free up some cash. it will make me feel better.

overall I'm up about 3%. which means ... net up .5%.... and now have some cash.



Ok..... This trend violation suggests we are going into the 4th wave correction of this 3rd wave down... 2-3 upside days.... no now 11K.... I'm too Damn Bearish..... Need to get my dick out.... Now where was that damn thing..... Ok..... 4the wave Correction Then that nasty horrible nasty Free falling Decline

it's hard for me to believe ..... in 11K.....

Ok that 5the wave will take us to 1300 or 12000

I can dump monsanto right now for 3%


This chart says, this futures rally is a false rally.. We have another low in us, a 4th wave correction... Then a great Creshendo Finnish!!! followed by a dead cat bounce, followed by capitulation....
This chart ... is looking for 11K....

Grodge, wants to talk Elliot wave... which makes me happy....
The waves are made up of other waves.
Wave 1 is an Impulse wave in the direction of the Primary trend.... (so in this bear trend, down)
Wave 2 is a Correction in the oposite direction.
Wave 3 is always the largest, either the most in number or longest in time.
Wave 4 another correction
Wave 5 final small impulse.
on this chart I show wave one,
which ended at the end of November......
that wave is made up of 5 waves.....
With the VIX and the RSI hitting their Maximum value at the end of wave 3. and not at wave 5 or the Bottom.
The vix hit 31.09 on the 12th of november and not the 26th when we bottomed. Showing near term capitulation, and not a Crazy Reversal.
I expect a value in the vix of over 31.09 to show the end of wave 3. In fact I'd not be suprised to see 35-39... But that won't be wave 5 that will be wave 3... we get a bump and then Capitulation.... Near Term!!!
In a bear market, corrections go up, and are 3 wave moves
Labeled
  • A impulse or upward move,
  • B corrective move, and
  • C final impulse move up.
But you get a spike in the RSI and the Vix.... Foolishly I don't track the Vix... I can't believe I stopped doing that.... it was completely stupid.... But the Vix and the RSI Should SPIKE Higher in Wave 3 than they do in wave One or Five. The move from the Short covering Rally... I called the end of wave 3 in this downturn..... But it Wasn't because the VIX didn't Spike, just the RSI.
What does all this tell me???.... The short covering rally last week was probably the end of wave 1, Meaning This downturn, is still wave 3. But the little spike should give us a larger Reflex Rally...
My original call was for a 2-3 day Rally... Larger than the wave 2 rally.... But 2 Legs Up one correction. wave.... This could go till wed....
I want to work up a short term chart.

Dire

Like I say, I hate being long....

I always say, the market is a shell game.... as such, it is confidence, that confidence is eroding. By the time the market is 11K or 8K... there is no reason for anything but picking up the pieces ....... So why even bother cutting rates by the fed, Just provide cash to the banks to keep them liquid..... I have felt that they shouldn't do it for 6 months....

My thesis on Uncle Ben, is that Why Fence Sit!! I don't get that, "Lead Follow or get out of the way"...

But sitting around like a rediculous pathetic Academic, saying "on one hand, and on the other hand".....

It's literaly playing the fiddle while rome burns.It's a joke. It's why stupid assholes stay in acedamia, and don't work for a living. They don't understand, the difference between being men of action, and living in dreamland.....
Rediculous fantacies like our president has about how God placed him in this time and place to challenge him. or Provide him with an opertunity to do what his father couldn't.... Crazy shit like that. That the Fed Chairman, as a Student of the 29 crash. is placed here to deal with it.

NEVER REALIZING THAT INACTION IS THE WORST POSSIBLE COURSE OF ACTION, IF YOU DON'T CHOOSE YOUR PATH, YOUR PATH CHOOSES YOU.

Nero needs to tell people to get out of town or grab a bucket.... Or both.

When I talk about him being Dickless.... That is it, in summary.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Nightmares

I'm having Bloggers remorse.... I have no idea who reads this blog, I intend to give sentiment... It kills me, the idea that someone buys chasing my trades...... Please understand that I'm UNBELIEVABLY AGGRESSIVE. please don't ...... do what I do...... if I were you I would tie my money up in 3 month(euro) bonds, and just wait for this bullshit to clear. Maybe buy gold till it's about $1400, then bail.

Hopefully you are a big kid and are taking care of yourself..... I'm a very kind and decent person, and on a day, when not only did the rally that I keep hoping for not happen, but we sit ass drug on the bottom of my target 1330... like a Dead Trout. Yes, I got Burned for 2.5%, and could open down another 2%. ....

My point is, I may avoid mentioning any stock from now on, I feel bad because if you caught those regional banks I gave out wrong, you could have been pummeled for 5% or more. All I did was Coughed up my gains from yesterday, and lost a little bit. I generally can read the tape fairly well, though I get a little crazy some times (can you believe I could have, and almost sold out of Monsanto today for a 3% gain and stopped myself, even though I could see the Rally Failing, for a correction)
The reason I trade the Financials, is because those will be the first bull trend in this market, The materials names I sort of hide in are topped out overall, and have done nothing If I didn't trade them well. The other thing is, I know if I go long and hang on. for a few weeks, I'll get a return. I could shut the ticker off, Suck my thumb for a few weeks, come back and I'll be up.

The way I trade hopes for maximum laziness, and maximum gain. Hopefully I can trade every 5-10 days, Swing trade. And just pay attention to the tape..... I HATE DAY TRADING!!!!!! I think it's the lamest way to make money, to sit and stress in front of the ticker every day(like I'm doing now) is a waist of my life. I'd rather do some consulting, and just relax and let bull runs in my stocks or shorts go.

I sit here contemplating the idea that we recreate the crash of 1987 or 1907. I just watched Fast money, and the Craziness there, Just got to me.... The propensity to tell me how to trade "Yesterday" kills me, and the crazy trades they run, assume that ... Well assume a nimbleness, that few have. And As they fight the 1987 crash.... and talk like it's going to happen.(or at least that is how I interpret it)

The difference between the 1370 I got out at on the short side, and the 2.5% beating I took today... Is nothing.... When we had that short covering rally I had like 7% loss of unrealized gains. Which drove me up the wall.

I couldn't believe this tape today, that we had so much fight in us for the past few days, to then follow through like this...... Just crazy in my estimation..... I guess it just shows what I don't know about the Tape.

Someone called me and we talked about the economy, and I scare the shit out of people.... Hopefully everyone knows how BEARISH i am on this economy. But that doesn't make me money, which is why I have to trade long side bounces. and hate the bouncy market action. The idea that I get out and make aggressive trades, just kills me...

The fact that Over all I'm betting the Fed is going to provide a bounce, or an organic bounce which is completely the opposite of what I think Should Happen.... And the Craziness of the fact that I bet on what I think will happen and not what should happen.... Just saying.... It's unnatural.

But honestly I just want to walk away from this tape and wait for better days..... I'd make a great Construction worker in Brazil....

I ask and beg of you, Do not Trade the way I trade.... Like I say, I'm a lunatic sometimes... and even today I have myself spooked.
I also know that I have to Grab my nuts and buy sometimes....

Also I say I'm up 17 percent or so.... but I do have some money sitting in some mellow investments.... It's my Trading money that is up that high..... I guess it's disingenuous to not talk about everything.

And maybe Hubris is getting to me today...... It's killing me that I've had a few bad day trades, and I think 1 bad trade so far this year.....(which is ridiculous luck)
Maybe it's just this has me so worked up.

Please Please Please.... Be Care full with your money....

what I wouldn't give to be trading in a bull market.

It's been so long since I was long

I keep having flashes about waking up and being down 20%.

I'm just sharing this with Ya'lll....

I find it funny in a nervous kind of way.

as far as I'm concerned that was a long nasty day....

as I say... I hate being long.... but ....

I swear, by the time I'm selling ya'll will be buying them.

Please no more pain...

comon fed Cut....

See what a turncoat I am..,.

15.5% I'm up on the year

down 3.5 today

I have Your stock and

not comming out till you pay me more!!!!!'m
I'll be making tin foil hats till stocks go up!!!!

Crash fucker Crash!!!!!

from hells heart I stab at thee!!!!!!!!


Comon!!! that all you have?????
I'm down 2%.......
Bring it..........
I'll only be up 17% this year.

my broker is bogged down like a bastard.

same guy calling for 1330 now was calling 1460 last week...

Nice range dude

Anyone want to know how badly I wan to puke right now.?
Who want's their shares of monsanto back?

Com on baby keep breaking those trend lines

Ouch ouch ouch

I may have to trade in my 12 year old for the cheep stuff in the gutter!!!!!!


I'm still holding long


Damn!!!!! Super Fun!!!! if you count it out like I didn't look for... this is theend of a 5 wave move....
I will just lose money if it get's worse..... Never Panic.... Never chase!!!

Have I mentiond that Monsanto sucks

Comon.... Hold!!!

:)

Anyone believe I have my balls in my hand!!!!!........


Giddy!!!!!UP!!!!!

Buya!!!!!.....

anyone believe I'm up on everything......


Bounce Fucker

I just went index long....

That is it..... I swear to god!!!!

Or I'll lose money

I just grabbed monsanto

purchased some more bank stocks

I expect some malingering this morning..... Test light blue come back test purple... break purple, bounce off blue.... and off to the races.......

Or not.

Cramer

Damn Crammer is freaking out again.... I can't figure out if it's anger, bargaining or acceptance.
Funny...

I was at a bar a year ago, and saw this woman I was hitting on, work out a mortgage loan on a napkin from her cell phone.

Too many things going on this morning.

Trading Thesis

As I struggled to go to sleep last night, being more long than short....

It occurred to me, that traders may be afraid to be short overnight, with the idea that the fed is going to come in and they will lose $10,000 over night.... or something.... so what they are doing is going short in the morning, covering... going long... Then selling(selling the long positions) again in the afternoon.....

WTF I went to take a shower, futures were up 30 then I come back we are down 33.

Uncle Ben

There is an interesting Story in the New York Times about uncle ben....

It goes on forever but is good, and tells a hell of a long story about central banking. Milton Freedman, and Paul Volcker.

“I think Bernanke is in a very difficult situation. Too many bubbles have been going on for too long. The Fed is not really in control of the situation.”Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker

I'm still trying to interpret this..... Volcker, has a Thesis that Keynesian economics(which is roughly... in my interpretation That monetary policy has to be manipulated in order to convince business to move to Full Employment)... Volcker's thesis is that Keynesian economics Creates, inflation. And should be used only in special situations. And is more of the Austrian school of economics, that Boom Bust cycles are normal.... and if you are going to manipulate the Bust cycles you have to mitigate the Boom cycles.

Here is a link to a paul volker talk

ANYONE WITH IDEAS OR WHO WANT TO ENGAGE IN THIS DISCUSSION, i'D LOVE TO YEAR YOUR IDEAS... (so like a troll I can talk beyond my pay grade and act like an overbearing ass)(I'm kidding, and yet not.

Good Morning

Every morning it's tough for me to focus on the market, with the Australia open going on.... So my loyalty is ..... Split.


Wow, I don't watch the Nasdaq, and was looking at it..... What a Beating!!!!!.....

I say it's because Steve Jobbs is lusting after a super thin notebook..... 5th wave Anyone?

I may throw some money that way.....

OK..!!!

Dollar/euro is at 1.463.... which is killing my materials names, and gave me a chance to reload on some of them yesterday.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

So My bearish friends

I swear we are working on a bottom.... This move is wave 5... I have a target of 1455(that is 15 points away)..... I didn't manage to go short..... I may take a chance and go 100% equities if we go lower. or catch it on the bounce back.





My financials are killing it. the list I gave out were all up 2-5%, if we get a great run, they will pop 5% per day.





As much as I think we Face a "super Cycle"(once a half century) or even a "Great Cycle"(once in a century)..... I have to Trade, to make money... and the technicals are saying swing.... My short positions never really got much better exit points on them.....





My Elliot wave modeling is calling for a bounce after this current downside move.





It also says we have one more wave to the downside To complete this Baby Bear Cycle.





I think CITI is going out of business, and the bond insurers..... There is a ton of pain to come.





The Volume was great today, I bet the MACD is showing divergence..... You have to admit the downside move feels like it's running out of steam.





I don't know how long a rally lasts 3 days, or 3 weeks.....





I'm just being honest.... I have to trade Technicals, and how I feel. Being True to these things continue to make me money.... it's not that I get things right ever time..... or perfectly as we have seen..... But I hit quite a few things.





Also...... You have to remember


I'm a Super aggressive Trader!!!!!

Ok, There is the White Trend.... The pink wave in there that IMHO we are finishing is the Third Wave of that White Trend.... It's the Macro Trend.......

If we go lower, which is probable, we will bounce off that pink Trend line.... and then the white 4th wave correction will start........

The 5th wave correction is the one that will take us segnificantly lower.

In other news..... Damn I hate being long.... I sleep much better being Short....

Ask yourself this.... if the market is going to detonate.... Why is are the small caps being strong.....

Why are the Retailers being strong???? Everything has been pushed down so far, it's all trying to bounce...



Developing Wave 5 We hit the trade channel

I hate charting this because it happens as I'm working on it....
We are now 2:31 in wave 3..... I'll be shorting this wave 5.... we violated the blue.... after this it's time to retest.... or even wave 5 of this entire move...... IE we are in the broader trade channel.

Problem is with the yellow move, the pull back and this red move..... This is a 3 wave elliot move.... we need another segnificant pull back, then another impulse move.

*DJ BB&T Corp. Started At Hold By Citigroup >BBT. (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires January 16, 2008 11:56 ET (16:56 GMT) Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 11 56 AM EST 01-16-08



You know what That means.... Citi is takeing a position in BBT and are waiting to build up stock till you can buy it from them.

all the Small Regionals.... Just kick ass

See those regionals

Killing it........... And the leaders, I own!!!!!


The materials I purchased.... Are Killing it since I purchased them


If we hit the Trade channel... I may try and go short.... maybe even if we go to a 50% retrace
maybe 138.8.....
I'm going to check out more of the australian open.....
Go!!!!! Hennin!!!!!!


I expect to see us start trading range bound.... Some great choppyness.... The tick value was really high and the yellow shows a great Elliot wave... so......
Lets see if I get crushed.
UPDATE: The target is roughly the bottom of wave 2 of that elliot wave....
I umn.... I'm not playing the SPY. I just use it as a reference for my trades.
Ok, I killed that trade. I made a little bit of money.

See how we vilated blue then volate the macro.... Now we test blue.... Which unfairly is happening now.... but it's a good chance to day trade short.

get ready for some Choppy tradding

live bloging this

the blue micro trend is coliding with the red Macro trend

A blog sugjests that which ever it violates first will be the one that it Maintains...So We violated the blue..... Theory is now it's time to violate the macro...
BTW I cleared my morning short, and purchased some materials names.... They are getting Killed!!!!
Notice my regional bank list is almost all in the Green!!!
Point is.... That is wave 3... and now we do wave 4


That is the third wave trade channel.

Regional banks

When I say regionals.... I mean the Baily Savings and loan.... or more Potters bank.....(snicker)

BBT- that is a big bank, and does have CDO exposure,
CFR
TCB
RF
CNB
CBSH
FHN
HBAN

Hey Sorry I have been watching the US open this morning....

I'll Concede that my short covering was early.... :)


This is what you are looking at, We are in that Red Trading Channel.... We should hit the bottom of it, then bounce back for a 4th wave, that fourth wave should break outside the channel.
If you dra a line from the end of wave 1 to were wave 3 ends. then draw a parallel line through line 2. you will get the Trading channel for the full move. Wave 5 should start when it hits that trading channel. I'll be initiating a short this morning as a day trade, then another at wave 5......
That is my plan. I'll be quick to cover after wave 5. I also will be doing some shopping.
I'm Equal Weight Cash,
Over Weight Materials.
Initiating coverage of financials, and oil.
I will be over weight materials and financials after wave 5 is done.
Under Weight Cash.
I'll hang on to enough cash to day trade.
I'm Very Bearish on this economy...... Never doubt that, but that the market is going to 8k..... Today.... doesn't make me money.
If I traded on what I think the market is going to do, I'd be all in gold..... I'm here to make money.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Rogers Diffusion of Innovation Bell Curve

So, Some dope came up with this...... I always come back to this, When I trade I want to be in that first 15%...... The key is to look for the 70%.... In Trading, and Elliot Wave Theory That is the Third Wave.....



But you ask? what is the point in finding the third wave. It's too Late to invest if you are seeing it in the rear view mirror...... But once you see it, then you can prepare for the final 16% then you bet the swing.

Now let's look at a chart.

Sure I'm just trying to Rationalize my Thesis......

But like I say "Chart-Astrology"

I was looking at the charts, today and waiting for quite some time for the Late Majority to come in and give us a second leg down.......

And they never came..... Why???? I suspect based on the laggards coming in we would make a smaller low. But in a bottom process, the Good stocks will be gone before the indexes bottom..... Even if we have a small leg down in the morning.... I still bet that My stocks run hard.

Also, proportionality says that the last rally lasted a day and a half, the next will last 3 days, We have had 3 days of sell off.

None of this has said "1300" in the SPX, If the late majority had come in We could then make the case for a 4th and 5th wave..

Even if I lose on this, It's this kind of thinking that continues to make me money.

Never Panic, and Never Chase a Trade.

The market trades more on momentum than News, that is why we ignore some bad news, and seem to take such importance to others.....

Move counter to the crowd. I hear people calling 11K in the Dow, and it reminds me of people calling for a 1 point rate cut.

(personal note, I was just on the phone with someone, and let me warn you, you don't want to talk to me. I'm happy to hear what you have to say, but get to the point. I don't have all my life to be on the phone with people, waiting for them to make up their mind, or remember something. If it's important, call me back, when you are sure, or it is important enough to remember what you had/have to say)

Since I Truly am a Bear, and think the economy is going to Fucking hell in a handcart...... Let me make your case....





The clear 5 wave Elliot wave ended last wed. We got a ..... Well A very Poor A-B-C correction.. ok, lets call that very bearish... We have now started a 5 wave decline.... Wave one being this morning Wave 3 started at the close(ish) Target is in my 1350-1330 range.
Thes are 2 solid Trends, the one at the bottom looks like it wants to break through.


.... Do I want to make my contrarian case.........????



The IWM was not as weak as the rest of the indexes..... The regional banks after opening lower... Went Crazy Opened 4% down, then about half that I track went positive, then closed down slightly.

The market had 5 opportunities to break down, and didn't.... Also, everyone and their dog went short..... I don't think there is anyone left, Except the day traders..... It is my very nature to go against the trend...... I always want to be ahead of the curve and I do everything I can to not chase it.

It is the very nature of the bear market that it beats the hell out of everyone, Bears and Bulls.

oh, and even with the sell off at the close, every position I took was still up.



make or break.....trendline...

Even down this is wave 5.... Or not.

I just fliped my trade


I'm still waiting for a healthy 4th wave of the red move. We now have the 4th wave of the green move....
A sideways 4th wave will develop.... Current target 1368 We should violate that trend line


This has been roughly my thesis .... Umn.....small bounce off that middle trend line... It will be interesting how strong a bounce that will be.... Hitting that lower Green trend line will kick off Wave 4 which will maybe be a lateral move, then move back toward the trend again for the finish of wave 5.... Of course that is "the general fighting the previous war"
Targets 1360-1330

Citi......

WTF would you buy it except for a trade, or if you are a billionaire who was retiring and wanted the dividend......

good lord

Scream for the intermeeing cut.... my prediction for a scream of 1%.

I see 1.5 dollar Euro today... how about 1.52

Right, so fed official Don Cohn says "listen only to to us".... watch for a chance for that Hubris to bite the fed charman and his Pancho Sanza.

In Elliot wave theory this is the trend we are trying to complete, the one in black with the pink third wave. ... It probably ends when it hits that lower green trend line or beyond.... Also Notice, that There is a Broader pattern.... Theoretically after this move completes ... We will get a solid bounce Test that green trend again.... Then move lower..... But..... This is defiantly trad able, and getting out in a smart position will be good.


This shows the trend lines..... We should get bounces at everyone of them........ But you have to track the trend line in real time.... But it's very likely we bounce off 1397 bounce back to 1400 and Fail down to test 1378 Bounce Maybe fail again..... I'll look for a bounce to 1400 and take a new short position.

Monday, January 14, 2008

I went short into the close....

The Linear regression on each of the trend channels is gettin less and less vertical....

Either that or we are developing an assending triangle.

This rally. so as a Bullisth move this move peters out at 1430 optimistically....

Overall I say anyone getting involved is going to resent that they did.

This is bullish... but slightly....

It was starting to feel to me like we were going to double bottom. in the future.

well now

I just can't convince myself to go one way or the other.....

I made nothing today, took no bets.

I may go short into the close.

Something, Either we are going up or down.......We didn't confirm the uptrend had havn't confirmed the down.... But
we shall see..... I may be a fool, but I just don't believe it.

Why do I feel like CNBC is trying to sell me a f150 ford truck?


Important trend lines in the SPY.....
I say sell off immediatly... But Ithought we would break the lower trendline before the upper We shall see.
How about a retest of 1412????

Earnings

IBM has my hair on the back of my neck up.

trying to test the trend line.

So..... The short term reversal I say is over, and we now get a 5 wave pull back. We are in wave 1 of that move, and, wave 5 of that first wave. We should push lower, get a pull back or lateral move... Then Wave 3, Wave 2 of this move will establish the Trend channel.
This will take 1-3 days.

WOW! Rommny isn't' a complete Moron.

Middle class tax cut, to move it into Savings..... To increase liquidity.

problem is, putting money into savings with double digit inflation is like flushing it down the toilet.

Mit and The Jesus Jammies!!!

Middle class tax cut!!!!!! what is he a Commie!!!!! Trickle Down!!!!!(tongue surly in cheek)

Fed..... Rhyming Economics of the 70's

Someone mentiond that what the market is continueing to bully the fed......



My eternaly optomistic side says that, they will nut up at one point... Either that or he becomes the G. William Miller Redux.

Economic historians have generally considered Miller's short tenure unsuccessful. The high inflation that Miller allowed required harsh "shock therapy" treatment by his successor Paul Volcker to bring under control, which sent the U.S. economy into recession from 1980-1982. Steven Beckner, a Federal Reserve analyst, offered a particularly harsh assessment:




Under Arthur Burns, who chaired the Fed from 1970 to 1978, and under G. William
Miller, who was was chairman from January 1978 to August 1979, the Fed provided
the monetary fuel for an inflation that began as a flicker and grew into a
fearsome blaze... If Nixon appointee Burns lit the fire, Miller poured gasoline
on it during the administration of President Jimmy Carter. Without question the
most partisan and least respected chairman in the Fed's history, this former
Textron executive worked in tandem with fellow Carter appointee, Treasury
Secretary W. Michael Blumenthal, in pursuit of monetary policies that were
expansionist domestically and devaluations internationally. The goals were to
spur employment and exports, with little thought to the dollar's value. By early
1980, inflation was running at 14 percent.
[6]
—Steven
Beckner, Back from the Brink: The Greenspan Years

We never learn, Like Children, we continue to do what in the short term seems good. But leads to long term pain....... It's like credit cards :)

Let me tell you why the fed won't cut this week.... Cause they said they are going to cut, They didn't say it as a warning, They said "we are going to cut" so that they didn't have to, till the meeting.

In the last stagflation cycle gold went from $100-$800.
this cycle it has gone from $500-????... Using that model it's going to $4000... I'm doubting that but $2000-$3000 isn't outside a reasonable target....

market

I say futures will be down 0-50 on the dow this morning.

The dollar is getting KILLED, 1.49..... I also Finaly Heard it, Maket starting to look for .5-1 point cut in the Fed funds rate...... Hear we come 1.6-1.7 Dollar Euro......

Morning Everyone

I want to thank everyone who reads this blog, for the most part I bet I don't know you. But I appreciate that you take the time.
On this Monday morning, as this week starts, and I go from Collected and focused, to ........ The Opposite. I want to say that overall this blog is a work in progress, like everyone... everything hopefully it continues to evolve. I'm going to try and be more Clear, and keep things simple. Please take into account, that this isn't T.V., I'm not trying to sell you a product, and therefore don't relay owe you anything. What I try and do is give out my market Sentiment. As all of you do on your blogs(or not), which hopefully help you gauge what is going on with the market.
Barry, The big Picuture... posted that great picture of the bear jumping off a building. Which was a great market sentiment, showing the maximum volatility of this move, then the snap back, Which Drove me as a Bear crazy, as I watched 5% roll out of my trade.
It's going to be a rough week, with the Australian open drawing my attention.
I have a near term target of 1355-1330 for this next downside move, I think the futures will be down this morning, we get a lateral move then jump to the downside, We should defiantly toy with 1480 today.

Sunday, January 13, 2008

After the Greenback

I want to collect a "1" that commemerates the stock market crashes.


1929

The initial crash occurred on Black Thursday (October 24, 1929), but it was the catastrophic downturn of Black Tuesday (October 29, 1929) five days later that precipitated widespread panic and the onset of unprecedented and long-lasting consequences for the United States.

Treasury secretary Andrew W. Mellon Treasurer W.O woods.

which is a 1928A Dollar
also there are 1929 a/b experimentals..... Wonder what that is about?

$25........

Then maybe I'll collect the great bear markets.

1862 Greenback

In order to get a VF(verry Fine) 1862 greenback it's going to cost me about $500.


lesser quality ones are going for $100-$500


PM's in the $200-$75 range(pieces missing)


see what a Nerd I'm becoming...

1am

Ugh..... 4 or 5 hours of sleep....

Com'on body... it's the weekend how about 7.....

Far be it, that I would have the audacity to ask for 9
On my new Nerdy Obsession, I want this next.....



O.G. Greenback 1862

Saturday, January 12, 2008

My weekend

So besides being a numismatist nerd, I umn will be watching:

  • secrets of the samurai sword
  • gospell acording to phillip k dick
  • vacancy(which is sucking and on right now)
  • averting nuclear disaster 1983
  • batman begins(which I've seen)
  • Absolute Zero, the history of temperature, or something..
  • I'll find some other stuff....

How Bearish is this....

As a commemeration of the comming to the end of the first Bear Cycle.... The baby Bear if you will.

I done purchased me a 1 dollar 1935-E XF Silver Certificate.

I know nothing about it......

Let's find out.

looks like what I have is a 1/1953-7/1957 1935-e xf series silver certificate 1.

it is XF grade.(as the currency nerds call it.)

Extremely Fine (or XF): A note in this grade will be bright, fresh, crisp, and attractive, but a few light folds or bends may be present. The overall eye appeal will be above average, and only the slightest soiling may be visible. A note in this grade might have a few light folds or several very minor bends, or a couple of vertical creases may be present. A note with a horizontal fold and three vertical folds cannot technically grade XF, although a very light horizontal bend that does not "break" the surface of the paper might be acceptable at this grade level if the three vertical folds are not heavy and there are no other apparent flaws. A typical XF note may have a couple of pinholes, but any larger holes would prevent a note from reaching this grade level.

It's a 1 dollar note dated 1935E, the E represents a change in the design of the 1935 bill also the year 1935 may not be when it's issued instead the year the first note was issued until a major design change. The next dollar bill year would be 1957.

Also of note is that it doesn't have "IN GOD WE TRUST" on it.

Silver Certificates-In accordance with an Act of Congress, dated February 28, 1878, the Department of the Treasury issued to the public Silver Certificates which could be exchanged for silver dollars.

On March 25, 1964, the Secretary of the Treasury announced that Silver Certificates would no longer be redeemable for silver dollars. Subsequently, another act of Congress dated June 24, 1967, provided that Silver Certificates could be exchanged for silver bullion for a period of one year, until June 24,1968. Even though silver certificates are no longer printed, those which remain outstanding are still legal tender and can be spent just like a Federal Reserve Note.

.After the abandonment of the gold standard in 1933, all types of issued currency (silver certificates, Federal Reserve notes, and United States Notes) were redeemable only for silver.

in 1935, the design of the one dollar bill was changed again. On the obverse, the blue numeral 1 was changed to gray and made smaller, the gray ONE to the left was removed, the treasury seal was made smaller and superimposed by WASHINGTON D.C., and a stylized ONE DOLLAR was added over the treasury seal. The reverse was also changed to its current design, except for the absence of IN GOD WE TRUST.

Treasurer was:

Ivy Baker Priest (September 7, 1905 in Kimberly, UtahJune 23, 1975) was a politician. She served as United States Treasurer, January 28, 1953January 29, 1961. She was later elected as a Republican to the office of California State Treasurer, serving two terms from 1967-1975. She had previously run for Congress in Utah on the Republican ticket in 1934 and 1950, losing both times. She is the mother of Pat Priest, an actress most famous for playing Marilyn Munster in the 1960s television show The Munsters.

Danger

march 24 2000.

I have been running models, and umn..... I have decided that this was the Last Gasp of western civilization.

I've been running some Elliot Wave models, and that is what i came up with.....

But.... Good news, Is that that date marks end the first wave of Globalization/global Civilization. also information age.
I guess maybe this could be the end of the first wave of globalization
Bad news is that it will be Lead by Asia and Technology
But in the second wave pull back of globalization/information age. We are probably through the first wave of the pull back, had the second wave correction and are working on the Third wave of the decline of western civilization Which started in October.


Jim Rogers is Absolutely Correct... with his thesis.

I am still working on the models.... I may be moving to Brazil....

Umnnn....

Do I get my tinfoil hat yet?


Sound Crazy
Hear this.
We retest august, 1380 Wave 1
bounce back to 1392Wave 2
Impulse1365-55 Wave 3
retrace1380-65 wave 4
impulse1330 wave 5
Bottom Number 2- this one will be tradable. will last a while(3-5 days).... then we will get to bottom number 3 Which I'm working out and is hard to forcast... But about 12000 on the dow.
I'm going to start calling myself rainman if this happens.

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"