Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Nightmares

I'm having Bloggers remorse.... I have no idea who reads this blog, I intend to give sentiment... It kills me, the idea that someone buys chasing my trades...... Please understand that I'm UNBELIEVABLY AGGRESSIVE. please don't ...... do what I do...... if I were you I would tie my money up in 3 month(euro) bonds, and just wait for this bullshit to clear. Maybe buy gold till it's about $1400, then bail.

Hopefully you are a big kid and are taking care of yourself..... I'm a very kind and decent person, and on a day, when not only did the rally that I keep hoping for not happen, but we sit ass drug on the bottom of my target 1330... like a Dead Trout. Yes, I got Burned for 2.5%, and could open down another 2%. ....

My point is, I may avoid mentioning any stock from now on, I feel bad because if you caught those regional banks I gave out wrong, you could have been pummeled for 5% or more. All I did was Coughed up my gains from yesterday, and lost a little bit. I generally can read the tape fairly well, though I get a little crazy some times (can you believe I could have, and almost sold out of Monsanto today for a 3% gain and stopped myself, even though I could see the Rally Failing, for a correction)
The reason I trade the Financials, is because those will be the first bull trend in this market, The materials names I sort of hide in are topped out overall, and have done nothing If I didn't trade them well. The other thing is, I know if I go long and hang on. for a few weeks, I'll get a return. I could shut the ticker off, Suck my thumb for a few weeks, come back and I'll be up.

The way I trade hopes for maximum laziness, and maximum gain. Hopefully I can trade every 5-10 days, Swing trade. And just pay attention to the tape..... I HATE DAY TRADING!!!!!! I think it's the lamest way to make money, to sit and stress in front of the ticker every day(like I'm doing now) is a waist of my life. I'd rather do some consulting, and just relax and let bull runs in my stocks or shorts go.

I sit here contemplating the idea that we recreate the crash of 1987 or 1907. I just watched Fast money, and the Craziness there, Just got to me.... The propensity to tell me how to trade "Yesterday" kills me, and the crazy trades they run, assume that ... Well assume a nimbleness, that few have. And As they fight the 1987 crash.... and talk like it's going to happen.(or at least that is how I interpret it)

The difference between the 1370 I got out at on the short side, and the 2.5% beating I took today... Is nothing.... When we had that short covering rally I had like 7% loss of unrealized gains. Which drove me up the wall.

I couldn't believe this tape today, that we had so much fight in us for the past few days, to then follow through like this...... Just crazy in my estimation..... I guess it just shows what I don't know about the Tape.

Someone called me and we talked about the economy, and I scare the shit out of people.... Hopefully everyone knows how BEARISH i am on this economy. But that doesn't make me money, which is why I have to trade long side bounces. and hate the bouncy market action. The idea that I get out and make aggressive trades, just kills me...

The fact that Over all I'm betting the Fed is going to provide a bounce, or an organic bounce which is completely the opposite of what I think Should Happen.... And the Craziness of the fact that I bet on what I think will happen and not what should happen.... Just saying.... It's unnatural.

But honestly I just want to walk away from this tape and wait for better days..... I'd make a great Construction worker in Brazil....

I ask and beg of you, Do not Trade the way I trade.... Like I say, I'm a lunatic sometimes... and even today I have myself spooked.
I also know that I have to Grab my nuts and buy sometimes....

Also I say I'm up 17 percent or so.... but I do have some money sitting in some mellow investments.... It's my Trading money that is up that high..... I guess it's disingenuous to not talk about everything.

And maybe Hubris is getting to me today...... It's killing me that I've had a few bad day trades, and I think 1 bad trade so far this year.....(which is ridiculous luck)
Maybe it's just this has me so worked up.

Please Please Please.... Be Care full with your money....

what I wouldn't give to be trading in a bull market.

5 comments:

Tony said...

Don't have too much remorse... Caveat Surfer. We're all big boys and girls, but I do appreciate your sentiment.

Getting back to Elliot wave, does the fifth wave last longer than the third wave, or is it just a greater level of magnitude change?

With the market closed Monday and the Fed on deck, are we looking at some traders getting back into financials for the weekend? As you said, they may lead the charge in any short term recovery (fourth wave). I'm still bullish JPM on a trade.

Keep up the blogging... it helps to air out opinions on the market moves.

Any uptick over the next few days could be a great opportunity to add to shorts in the emerging markets, IMO.

Tony said...

Clarification:
I meant to say, does the third wave last longer than the fifth wave...

Eric said...

they say technical Analysis is more an art than a science... so They say the third wave is longer than the 5th..... Either it is longer in time, or longer in Rise.

But as I've seen the RSI is greater at the end of the 3rd wave... But the Volatility isn't.

I'll check that.

I'll draw one out this morning... or show you based on market action.

It will be a welcome relief from my Black Tuesday dreaming.

Eric said...

there I posted it but am still typeing

Eric said...

I guess to answer... more clearly
3rd wave is longer, and 5th wave goes lower... but isn't as long.

Not to confuse the issue, but they can move sideways.

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