durable goods number, enough of a nugget of good data that we may not want to slit our equities wrists.... yet.
Need coffee!!! no coffee yet!!! Full pot, no cup.
I'm starting to ponder the idea of a 3 month rally.....
Look a chart of the SPY over 4 months.... Blue line resistance 142 red line 149...
also no longer oversold.
Fibonacci 146.1
Let me just say it.... Elliot wave says we have another new low.... When you ask? yes great question... Trade channel calls it 140(unshown).... I'm dubious.
Prediction.... Sell this open.... I'm not betting it... but the futures don't seem sustainable.
2 comments:
Morning Eric,
I am now guessing the market reaction on rate cut.
Obviously, a 25 basis points cut would lead a immediate market sell off, how abunt 50 basis points, will the market happy? Or sell on fact as this is expected. If uncle Ben has gut and decide to bail out the market, an unexpected 75 basis point cut would bring the market further rebound to Dow 13k i think.
Eric, any thoughts?
Interesting I didn't see this this morning...
Morning Melissa,
I say .25... 200 pt sell off and then rebound, or quickly muted action..
.50 we react positively and go to 1400.
The last two cuts happened at very high levels(1500 s&P)... and this one is happening at a fairly low level... I just think there isn't much room to act negatively...
But a .25 and maybe 1400 on the SPX is all we will have in us on the upside..
When a trade works the same way 2 times in a row... I tend to bet it won't work the third time... I.E. Sell on the FOMC.
We are seeing that same great denial again... Everything is great, no recession, earnings are fine, if you look at them selectively.
I just think we may float up until just before q1 earnings.
I'm betting we will be surprised how well we will take tepid news.
I could get burned :)
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