Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Ben Steinery.....

If, this Jerome Kerviel BULLSHIT, was a Straw that caused a panic in an already Freaked out market.......

The math runs this way..... it Caused an Unatural low, so the Natural low was more 11,700 and not 11,500... and was MORE of a SHAKE out than was needed.........

Who is to Hypothosise that we wernt' working on a natural capitulation low at 12,000......

If you want suposition, and Random What if, Thinking.....

It Should be embolding to think that it Triggerd more panic than should have happened....

FURTHERMORE.

It is possible that Uncle Ben isn't a Gradualist, which shows his reluctance to cut earlier.....His hero is Milton Friedman who coined the phrase "fool in the shower"..... It is quite possible that the plan at the meeting was to cut .75 or a full point.... and are willing to rapidly cut more and just get it out of the way.

Maybe Killing Gradualisum at the fed is the Key, Get buisnesses to realize that there is a "Window" that they can borrow in in recessions, and they either get on it or loose out.

But instead of waiting for Dow 8k, they decided to Stem the panic, so as to not create instability in the stock market, and spend 6 months picking it up..... or maybe 11k was the bottom.

As much as the Perma Bears don't want to hear it, Uncle Ben is all about SAVINGS, and is doing what he can to Encourage it.

He is a Numismatist ((Lat. numisma, nomisma, a coin; from the Greek, derived from voµi eiv, to use according to law), is the scientific study of currency and its history in all its varied forms) He understands the gold, and silver standard, has studied the federal reserve and it's roll in our lives.

IT is going to take some time to get used to him....
As I remarked the Greenspan mess is partaily due to his concerns about Deflation.... Which very well could have caused the majority of the great depression.... But he is also concerned about inflation.......
This is all Great and Rational.... he may not be a great leader, but We may be able to get used to him........

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