Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Talking my book

.... My guess is a quarter out of the fed will lead to a small sell off, then we should recover.... Like I said, something that works twice shouldn't work the third time. The last time the fed came in we were in the 1500 range..... But we are in the 1300s

The 11500 range that we hit last week is significant support... Unless we get into a depression we shouldn't see 10K or 9K.... Remember the 1987 crash happened at 8K.... with inflation the Dow is worth every bit of that.... Remember stocks go up with inflation.

But all of this is just me talking my book.

Now I don't get why the market expects so large a cut... we did get a .75 seems like that is a fairly large cut... I suspect that it's more the banks expecting it... It wouldn't surprise me to see the fed stick it to the market.

could be a great chance to go short.

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