Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

cspan

I just caught some c-span....

The idiot parade will start again tomorrow.

You know

I'm a total bear ..... talking about death spirals... and helocopters... all that crap...

gold is getting clobbered, the dollar is 1.41 to the euro.

But will a rally last past 11

we are way to sure we are going to crash...

or... Crash again...

Because we need some entertainment today

Some of my letters, from the past week:

Mr. President.

I’m well aware how serious what is going on in our economy is. We need leadership, and you are acting like a dog with his tail between his legs. I think that if you rolled up your sleeves, and went to the deliberative bodies, got dirty, and helped them get something worked out. I think it could help. I really doubt it could hurt.

Find a way to help them, work this out.

We need the old president bush, the one who rolls up his sleeves and gets dirty. The one that we elected.

Sincerely Eric Davis


Letter 2:


Representative Matheson.

I’m not sure if you know this, but the credit markets are so locked up that imports and exports can’t get the credit they need to get into and out of the country. I mean… I’m not smart congressional representative, but I think our economy needs imports and exports. It’s a very heroic thing that you did to ‘go with the flow’. I mean it’s not like our economy is falling one domino at a time, as the largest banks fall one by one. But what do your constituents need with money, or Credit. I didn’t realize you feel in line with the ideas of the KATO institute.

Well I’m sure you have a plan. I’d love to hear it.

Eric Davis


Letter 3:

Rep, Cannon.

The stories I have read, have you against trying to recapitalize banks.

I noticed on your blog that you mentioned the Washington Post article. Five Ways to Wreck a Recovery.

Interesting that you don’t mention:

· Blaming the messenger. Punishing the stock market for the 1929 crash was popular in Washington in the early 1930s. Lawmakers attacked the practice of short selling; Senate Banking Committee counsel Ferdinand Pecora hauled J.P. Morgan and other Wall Streeters in for hearings. By 1934, Congress was creating the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Roosevelt administration also prosecuted business leaders, including former Treasury secretary Andrew Mellon and utilities magnate Samuel Insull. The new regulatory culture cut crime and protected investors. But the arbitrary nature of the assault petrified Wall Streeters.

As America, Isn’t educated enough to realize there is no separation between “Wall Street” and Mainstreet, and that wall street is just an indicator of what is going on in the broader economy. Unfortunately most of your constituents are caught up in this idea of “Blaming Wall street”, not realizing that it’s the entire economy that is ready to Jump off a cliff, and that they are just blaming the messenger.

Sen. Reed Smoot and Rep. W.C. Hawley proposed a tariff that was to raise effective duties by as much as half. More than a thousand economists signed an open letter warning that the duties would "raise the cost of living and injure the great majority of our citizens."

It’s funny. Smoot-Hawley was favored by the population and was part of what got Hoover elected, It’s unfortunate that sometimes what is popular politically sometimes isn’t a good idea. It also makes me realize that most the business leaders and economists Buffet, Jack Welch, Volker, Pimco are in favor of the measure.

Seems like this is one of those moments when some people will exacerbate a problem and will become the new “Smoot-Hawley’s”, and some people will show some Integrity, and take the hard path, and do what is needed to help keep the economy and keep it from Jumping off a cliff, Tax cuts and deregulation are not going to be enough.

When you and your staff, get done and make your decision. I’ll be excited to hear your justifications for how you voted. I honestly hope this is just political posturing, and you’re just tipping your hat to all this Populist sentiment, and you’re ready to make the prudent responsible adult decision.

Funny “5 ways to Wreck a Recovery”… Seems like we are still more in the Wreck than the Recovery.

Sometimes it’s important that our representatives LEAD constituents, and not Follow them.

I pray and hope that you can see through this mess, these aren’t easy decisions, and I hope you are up for it.

Eric Davis

Record Libor.

Libor Surges Most on Record After U.S. Congress Rejects Bailout

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks charge each other for such loans climbed 431 basis points to an all-time high of 6.88 percent today, the British Bankers' Association said. The euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor, for one-month loans climbed to record 5.05 percent, the European Banking Federation said. The Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of the scarcity of cash, advanced to a record. Rates in Asia also rose.

6.875% overnight libor

4.05% for 3 month....

these are Thursday before last levels.

6.875% overnight libor

What the market knows

  • First, that we will sell off big today(just like I figured we would sell of big on Friday)
  • Second, foreign markets say a deal will be signed on thursday.
If there is a deal, there is no reason to sell.

And yet.... Alice.... If we don't sell off, the house won't make a deal.

mark to market

The problem with passing mark to market is it doesn't free liquidity and I'm fairly sure that is what Japan did....

Glum

Hey, I'm sorry to be so glum. But long term this isn't good. Hope springs eternal, but besides some small bounces.. I'm not hopeful. And we could bounce 500 points today.

The way I see it... It's dominoes, we could have caught it early... We may still. But they are away, at this point. And continue to move far off in the distance.

The foreign markets are in denial... some of them are flat..... "They Can't believe that this could be real" that our representatives could be so incompetent....

What we need is McCain and his long Bomb.... or somebody and a long bomb...

got that nice 3 hours of sleep

ugh... I have no idea how to bet this.... My impulse is that hope springs eternal. We are in a cascading failure... and have yet to even see it get dark... Let alone darkest before dawn.

We need to stop the bleeding before we can even see what the damage is....

Even passage of a bill ... doesn't leave me with confidence... funny the confidence game.... Confidence would be established with the house doing what ever they had to to sort this out...

and yet what we have is the opposite They lack the conviction to do what needs to be done.

Strange bedfellows

When Crazy Right wing Shitbags, are matched up with Left wing We need a larger package that gives more free money to the poor.

When the fringe elements of both parties are those who vote no.... You have a good sausage.

News Flash Pat Buchanna

after being a blow hard all week about what a load of shit this was....

Today it was all "Umn.... I think we may be facing an international economic crash"

Thanks for coming late to the party pat.

On thursday

they have a plan to unfreeze credit markets....
.....

Huh!!! just shows how ignorant they are... isn't that what they were trying to do.

The New Smoot Hawley list

Abercrombie
Aderholt
Akin
Alexander
Altmire
Baca
Bachmann
Barrett (SC)
Barrow
Bartlett (MD)
Barton (TX)
Becerra
Berkley
Biggert
Bilbray
Bilirakis
Bishop (UT)
Blackburn
Blumenauer
Boustany
Boyda (KS)
Braley (IA)
Broun (GA)
Brown-Waite, Ginny
Buchanan
Burgess
Burton (IN)
Butterfield
Buyer
Capito
Carney
Carson
Carter
Castor
Cazayoux
Chabot
Chandler
Childers
Clay
Cleaver
Coble
Conaway
Conyers
Costello
Courtney
Cuellar
Culberson
Cummings
Davis (KY)
Davis, David
Davis, Lincoln
Deal (GA)
DeFazio
Delahunt
Dent
Diaz-Balart, L.
Diaz-Balart, M.
Doggett
Doolittle
Drake
Duncan
Edwards (MD)
English (PA)
Fallin
Feeney
Filner
Flake
Forbes
Fortenberry
Foxx
Franks (AZ)
Frelinghuysen
Gallegly
Garrett (NJ)
Gerlach
Giffords
Gillibrand
Gingrey
Gohmert
Goode
Goodlatte
Graves
Green, Al
Green, Gene
Grijalva
Hall (TX)
Hastings (WA)
Hayes
Heller
Hensarling
Herseth Sandlin
Hill
Hinchey
Hirono
Hodes
Hoekstra
Holden
Hulshof
Hunter
Inslee
Issa
Jackson (IL)
Jackson-Lee (TX)
Jefferson
Johnson (GA)
Johnson (IL)
Johnson, Sam
Jones (NC)
Jordan
Kagen
Kaptur
Keller
Kilpatrick
King (IA)
Kingston
Knollenberg
Kucinich
Kuhl (NY)
Lamborn
Lampson
Latham
LaTourette
Latta
Lee
Lewis (GA)
Linder
Lipinski
LoBiondo
Lucas
Lynch
Mack
Manzullo
Marchant
Matheson
McCarthy (CA)
McCaul (TX)
McCotter
McHenry
McIntyre
McMorris Rodgers
Mica
Michaud
Miller (FL)
Miller (MI)
Mitchell
Moran (KS)
Murphy, Tim
Musgrave
Myrick
Napolitano
Neugebauer
Nunes
Ortiz
Pascrell
Pastor
Paul
Payne
Pearce
Pence
Peterson (MN)
Petri
Pitts
Platts
Poe
Price (GA)
Ramstad
Rehberg
Reichert
Renzi
Rodriguez
Rogers (MI)
Rohrabacher
Ros-Lehtinen
Roskam
Rothman
Roybal-Allard
Royce
Rush
Salazar
Sali
Sánchez, Linda T.
Sanchez, Loretta
Scalise
Schiff
Schmidt
Scott (GA)
Scott (VA)
Sensenbrenner
Serrano
Shadegg
Shea-Porter
Sherman
Shimkus
Shuler
Shuster
Smith (NE)
Smith (NJ)
Solis
Stark
Stearns
Stupak
Sullivan
Sutton
Taylor
Terry
Thompson (CA)
Thompson (MS)
Thornberry
Tiahrt
Tiberi
Tierney
Turner
Udall (CO)
Udall (NM)
Visclosky
Walberg
Walz (MN)
Wamp
Watson
Welch (VT)
Westmoreland
Whitfield (KY)
Wittman (VA)
Woolsey
Wu
Yarmuth
Young (AK)
Young (FL)

I hear we need shipping

- The credit crunch is sucking liquidity out of global trade and the shipping business, leaving cargoes stranded on docks and threatening to bring down shipyards and ship owners alike.

"The banks have ceased lending and a lack of liquidity affects trade," Stamatis Molaris told Reuters in a telephone interview. "The demand for goods is there; there is just not enough liquidity to move those goods around."

"It has happened to us and it is happening everywhere to everyone," he said. "The whole system has come to a state of chaos."

Monday, September 29, 2008

China's Tug-Of-War With Vale

“In the near term China will use domestic iron ore and reduce or refrain from using Brazilian iron ore,” the state-run newspaper China Securities Journal reported, citing Luo Bingsheng, head of the China Iron and Steel Association.


What this says... is the global slow down is real.... even the D word

Fed Pumps Further $630 Billion Into Financial System

Fed Pumps Further $630 Billion Into Financial System.

So now

The democrats have no interest in working this out. They have already been burned supporting this turkey. They can just step back, say "we tried" and let the chips fall.

I got a phone call. I said "the best thing to have been "in in congress", was on the losing side of that bet." It was a Winner really Loses situation... Whoever won actually lost, because they got their way and it was not going to turn out well.

Well

I just fired off 2 fraudulent emails to my(or not my) congressmen, using made up addresses....

both sites were very jammed

You know what I like right now

the house web site is very slow.....

This didn't happen when they were going to pass it... makes me think... there are now some angry people on the other side...

we can always hope...

LOL

So, people think now we will get a "Good plan".... LOL....

My bet... and even worse plan, that is 2 to 3 times more expensive.

and it will be after the election.

ALSO.... this is funny.. I hear they want to create a plan to "unclog the credit markets"..... Geeee I thought that was what we were doing and besides.

What a disaster

Any Bets?

will we lose 1 trillion in FDIC

or will we lose 1 trillion in bailouts for businesses.

the great crash of 2008

the house will show the Market...... they are much bigger than the market.

Anyone ready for "The New Deal?".....

Nope we will have to go through all the motions won't we..

Gosh.... and congress will now try and do "something" to fix the credit markets.

but you have to ask... Who would loan us crazy idiots money now?

always chances

things can shake out... as long as new dominoes don't fall, which will be treasury and fed response.

Umn.... It's funny that the "free market response" of letting LEH fall.. is what caused all this.

they just don't realize how the dominoes all work.

Good stuff

"May we Live in interesting times"

What has to happen is this has to get sold to mainstreet,

Either through company failures and paychecks not going out, or 2-3K loss on the indexes

I'm stunned

even though It seemed like this was the 40 year flood.

What has to happen is that the credit markets have to lock up and the house will be back at the table, When business leaders start calling in the next few weeks saying they can't make payroll.

If they ignore that, then people will have to start seeing unemployment and lose their jobs, and start calling their representatives saying "FOR GOD SAKES DO SOMETHING!!!!"

It was said this morning, "not only does the fire have to move from the kitchen to the livingroom, it actually has to burn the couch people are sitting on."

good lord

this is all just the craziest shit ever...

by voice

So... the voice vote says it should pass handily.

when in a voice vote you hear a weak response and people yell to make up for it.. You can count they will lose.

on of the best hopes is

that because stock ownership is so widespread.

Problems on wallstreet are much more.... Widespread.

Madam speaker

I'd like to yield my time to the Lunatic from:

Texas
California
Illinois

Why are they always from the same states...

I'm excluding florida.. only because somehow they have moderated.

the house is about to vote


I have never hated our elected officials as much as I do right now..... Every one of them.

Either too ignorant to do what is right,
Or more interested in getting elected.

I love that at the last minute there are all these "Solutions" ...Where were these "solutions" a week ago.

The nazdaq is down 4.54%

Imagine if they don't pass the bill.... and still The senate on wed.

I'm on cspan

THESE PEOPLE ARE FUCKING CRAZY.

I have no idea what the numbers will be... but those in opposition are fucking crazy.

hmmm

Financial train Wreck.... Or... Continental Divide.

boogity boogity

I'm not saying it's going to be bad... I just have the heebie jebies.

Something..... I just feel like ... I want the national nightmare to be over.

can hope that they are selling the futures to sucker the new shorts in and give the big firms a buy in opportunity.

It' s not passed.... and I continue to be embarrassed by all parties.

I just continue to think how much I don't want to play.

Fun

futures down 200, dollar up significantly, gold down, oil down.....

which one doest't belong....

asia is very jittery.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

I popped out a comment to a blog

about how funny it was that if the system collapses the result would most likely be a rebirth of socialism in full Bloom, "new Deal" TIMES TEN

and how that is just what the "free marketeers" want to protect Free markets.

and how everything is in a death spiraling catch 22 to socialisum.

  • Capitalism collapses, we get socialisum.
  • free markets embrace socialisum, and it betrays their hypocrisy... and more socialisum.
They refused to publish the comment...... LOL, the blog was obviously so insulted

Back to my crank

I read what my asshat representatives think... it's apparent they are so clueless...

they say stuff like "this is a tough decision".... Isn't that what they are there to do..... Make tough decisions.

what a bunch of idiots.

This is kind of fun

With all the market drama,.... I tell you here is a signal of sentiment for a significant low.

An old girlfriend, called me thursday or friday. I guess she wanted to talk about the market. Or not so much, she probably wants to get back together.

Funny I told her she needed to take her 401K defensive last year, and she was all "Oh I forgot, until like June."

What is funny is she was calling me, after she broke up with me.. Last june....
Why did we break up?

Well I'm just a hoot.... I go to bed at like 9pm if I'm staying up late, Get up at 3am. I like to sleep with cnbc on... or not so much like to, but end up doing it. And I take a lot of naps.

Oh... and when I'm not doing all that, I like to watch documentaries.

Beyond all that, I tend to be anti-social... and irritable with people.... Which reminds me. I was out having lunch at a bar yesterday... Well not so much a bar, but one of those stupid "fudrucker" like places, that make my skin crawl. But I'm at the bar, and people try and have conversations with me.

This is what I said in the course of lunch.

I told one person that "When he was in Kindergarten, he must not have learned that lesson 'keeps hands to self' "
Then the bartender, she was talking about how huge her daughter was, but in hight and girth. I Told her it was all the steroids in the Meat, and how they grow the cows all big and fat, of course what you feed the cows to, become the same way. "Oh", She said. Then I commented, "you will think "Oh!" when she then develops massive emotions problems, as a side effect. But don't worry they will sell you even more drugs for that.

Yep.... I'm a hoot.

How would it be

for the weekends to mellow out, and for trading to get more relaxed. Less Armageddon talk.

Fast money....... some of the traders were saying the rally could go through thursday...

talk about counting chickens... and and....it's like the most predicted rally in history.

Rats in a Maze... More Circular Logic... Catch 22s

This morning, I had the amusing thought.

After the great depression, Roosevelt started "The New Deal" one of the largest move toward socialism, in this countries history.

That all these "Free Market Capitalists" believe that in the spirit of "Free Markets" we should let it all Burn. Yet, Wouldn't you think that this time, If it all Burned down our move toward Socialism, would be even stronger. We could easily reform our entire social economic system... More Toward Socialism, than ever before.

The irony that in the spirit of "Free markets" allowing it all to burn down... could forever reform capitalism... More toward socialism than ever before.....and that the only hope for "free markets" is a socialist move.

This just keeps making me Giggle.

Where is my copy of Alice in wonderland.

Here is the plan

According to reports late tonight, negotiators have (re-)reached a tentative deal on the bailout of the financial system. Full story here, but the gist as follows:

  • $700-billion in total
  • $350-billion immediately, with some of that earmarked for the insurance initiative championed by House Republicans
  • "Reasonable" limits on severance packages
  • Warrant coverage
  • Some sort of tithing of the financial sector in five years if the bailout isn't profitable
  • Government must renegotiate bad mortgages it acquires to try to keep people in houses
  • Full text Sunday, as is a House vote, and then a Senate vote Monday


Thank god McCain came in to Make all these huge changes.... I Mean, Hell we could have voted on it on friday..... Now Monday...... Notice the other change... A Tith on the financial sector... Not a Tax..... See Republicans can't make a move for Adding Taxes. But a Tith.... That is ok...

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Fast money again

I caught the late showing of fast money... another 10 minutes. So... I'm a fan of them being traded OTC, But here is the plan....

they want to buy derivatives of them. Calls and puts..... God I hate wallstreet.... derivatives of derivatives of derivatives..... I want a derivative of the derivative market.... I want a 'put' on the destruction of humanity based on derivatives.

The first law of engineering is "KEEP IT SIMPLE".... Like I keep pointing out Wall street is the bottom fish intellectually, They know little about history, little about economics, Little about philosophy. Little about markets.

The derivatives market is a Kludge, at one point it has to collapse....

all I want out of that market is for buyers and legitimate sellers to come together. in a transparent way.... and I don't care much about MBS.... what I do care about is those fucking default swaps.... and other than that... I want to see swaps linked to a bond.....

This is all just Asshatery. All the douchbags on fast money working each other into a narcissistic Mind Fuck Group think... We are going to save the earth by building a new derivative otc market...

Kind of reminds me of the Douchbags who thought they were going to save the world with MBS.

The pile on effect

they keep talking about how every time one bank goes down they move on to the next one. The interesting thing to consider is that Once Wamu went down, all the hedgers using the weakest bank had to move on to the next one for all their long hedges against banks so they could be Long some banks.

Friday, September 26, 2008

McCain

I've been a semi supporter of his, for a long time... for a republican, I felt he wasn't satan..... Ok I still don't think he is satan.

He comes off like a sniveling.... Weasel.

Ok, here it comes.

he keeps "throwing the 'hail Mary'", you dont' want that as a strategy. I was a bronco fan for a long time, and it wasn't until John elway learned to not rely on his 2 minute play book to dig him out of trouble, He didn't win "the big game"..... The secret is to Not get in that positions. Unfortunatly, there is a pattern of him trying to keep "Throwing the Bomb".

I wan't Cartoons....

Smoot-Hawley Act

Smoot-Hawley act-

The act was pioneered by Senator Reed Smoot, a Republican from Utah, and Representative Willis C. Hawley

After the economic downturn and crash of 1929, Smoot Hawley was enacted and it was a Very Popular move, Enacted by our Legislative branches.

When running for president in 1928, one of Hoover's many campaign promises to help beleaguered farmers had been to raise tariff levels on agricultural products.

A petition was signed by 1028 economists in the United States asking President Hoover to veto the legislation, organized by Paul Douglas, Irving Fisher, James TFG Wood, Frank Graham, Ernest Patterson, Henry Seager, Frank Taussig, and Clair Wilcox.[5] Automobile executive Henry Ford spent an evening at the White House trying to convince Hoover to veto the bill, calling it "an economic stupidity".[6]J.P.Morgan's Thomas Lamont said he "almost went down on my knees to beg Herbert Hoover to veto the asinine Hawley-Smoot tariff,

(Interesting parallel as every business leader in the country and economist of any repute is begging our government to do something to Re-liquify banks Right now. Volker, Greenspan, Pimco, Jack Welch, Clinton, and even Paulson fell onto one knee to beg for passage.)

In the opinion of most economists, the Smoot-Hawley act was partially responsible for the severity of the Great Depression.[2][3]

Unemployment was at 7.8% in 1930 when the Smoot-Hawley tariff was passed, but it jumped to 16.3% in 1931, 24.9% in 1932, and 25.1% in 1933.[11]

For those of you who don't understand, I'm drawing a parallel between PASSING Smoot-Hawley........ and NOT doing everything we can to help Re-Liquefy banks right now.

Sometimes we take action because something is very popular by the voters, or Don't take action because something is unpopular. To disastrous results, It is expected that sometimes for our legislative branch to Rise above politics and do what is best for the country, regardless of it's popularity. Sometimes the best decisions are not popular. As the minority opinions against the war in Iraq have shown, and we are lucky if our politicians can take the heat for the correct decision as opposed to the Popular one.

That razers edge.

They keep talking about "Rewarding bad actors". I find it interesting that instead of evenly providing lequidity. They want to only proved it to the institutions that are willing to Accept Warrents, and the other punitive provisions in the program. Hopefully they aren't that punitive, and are just reasonable.

My consern has always been that what they realy want to do Is rain Liquidity aross banks by market cap. As opposed to only getting MBS, or other crazy derivitives. But also pick up just some mom and pop loans and commercial loans.

Hopefully some of the republicans did a Wikie lookup of Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act Realized, they didn't want to be smoot or hawley....

Some Republican

he said this:

We have a priority in my state, 'it's more energy'. That is our priority....... Assuming that the entire financial system doesn't collapse.

Fast money Obsession

The massive obsession with this market for MBS..... The down side... Our government buys them, then the market shorts the shit out of them.

Also then they are like "well then we can get an instant "market price"" this way they can short a financial equity down by shorting it's MBS down to the point that the bank is insolvent... based on instant mark to market.....

I'm such a huge fan of supply and demand, and the efficiency of markets.... After this short ban, and Yall know I seem to have become an informal specialist in financial stocks. But even I knew that Regardless of the short ban, the financial stocks were going to sell off, because they didn't have buyers. It's simple supply and demand.

But the way Traders freaked out about it, like we couldn't get market prices without shorting..... Tells me either traders are hopelessly ignorant of the laws of supply and demand, or the system is so corrupt, that it was like "Their pants had come off and they didn't want anyone to know how small their dicks were"..... and that in the market it's more about manipulation, that it is about price discovery.... The emperor has no clothes, so to speak.

But that suddenly has me worried about this whole "mbs market"...

I'm a huge fan of them being traded OTC... but mostly so they can find buyers.

news flash

Greenspan wrote a letter begging the legislative branch to take action.

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan co-signed a letter calling for lawmakers to take action to relieve the financial crisis. Greenspan, along with former Treasury Secretary George Shultz and Robert Hall of the Hoover Institution, declined to back a specific plan, instead saying, “We endorse all plans that would preserve the key functions of the threatened financial institutions.”

Stocks Rise

on notion that Lawmakers arn't butt fucking Crazy....

Best to take some off.

What creeps me out

is a "buy the rumor" "Sell the news" trade.

Hey

The republicans have agreed.....

"THERE IS A PROBLEM", and after 7 days.. are willing to negotiate.

sorry.... I may have to look up my AA.... 12 steps right?

  1. We admitted we were powerless over alcohol—that our lives had become unmanageable.
  2. Came to believe that a Power greater than ourselves could restore us to sanity.
  3. Made a decision to turn our will and our lives over to the care of God as we understood Him.
  4. Made a searching and fearless moral inventory of ourselves.
  5. Admitted to God, to ourselves, and to another human being the exact nature of our wrongs.
  6. Were entirely ready to have God remove all these defects of character.
  7. Humbly asked Him to remove our shortcomings.
  8. Made a list of all persons we had harmed, and became willing to make amends to them all.
  9. Made direct amends to such people wherever possible, except when to do so would injure them or others.
  10. Continued to take personal inventory and when we were wrong promptly admitted it.
  11. Sought through prayer and meditation to improve our conscious contact with God as we understood Him, praying only for knowledge of His Will for us and the power to carry that out.
  12. Having had a spiritual awakening as the result of these steps, we tried to carry this message to alcoholics, and to practice these principles in all our affairs.

Libor Rates For Dollars

DJ British Bankers Association Libor Rates For Dollars

.All rates compared to previous day's fixing: . .
Current Previous . ------- --------
.O/N 2.31250 2.56250
.1WK 3.96875 4.00000
.2WK 3.95000 3.93125
.1MO 3.70375 3.70875
.2MO 3.72250 3.73125
.3MO 3.76188 3.76875
.4MO 3.80750 3.82750
.5MO 3.84500 3.89375
.6MO 3.87625 3.97500
.7MO 3.87375 3.97750
.8MO 3.87750 3.98063
.9MO 3.87875 3.98250
.10MO 3.88375 3.97750
.11MO 3.88875 3.97938
.12MO 3.89125 3.98250

3 stupidest things I've heard this cycle

I was out walking this morning... ya, I didn't run because... well I have been good about it, and don't want to over do it... and I seem to some mornings be to fatigued to run some mornings.

But 3 stupidest things I've heard.

  1. Decoupling of either Wall street from the U.S. Economy. Or the the U.S. economy from the Global economy.
  2. Economeisters that say "Economic Armageddon... Except materials"... I hate to say this, either it's economic Armageddon or not... Armageddon does not make exceptions.
  3. that "Wall Street and Mainstreet are somehow disconnected"... this is just asshatery.

mmmmm Sausage

http://www.horizonmeats.ca/images/sausage.jpg
It's best to grind this out...... Just.... Why weren't they grinding sausage for the past 7 days.

The other half... Mcdonalds StarWars collectors glass

have I wished I were flat, yet....

This is trading like easing sentiment... and that we are on the wall of worry.

A lot of great fist fights.

I maintain that, for our economy to be healed, we need bank recapitalization.

A slower deal is smarter... Not like the republicans or democrats understand economics.

that is impressive

Guns and butter

I went out this morning and got some cash. Got some stuff at the grocery store.

Dem probably have no choice but to play brinksmanship, Let the ATM's stop working. Market drop 2K.

My prediction

this is all staged to have McCain come in and save the day!

and get the Tax cuts for the rich extended

Thursday, September 25, 2008

US Congress Tries To Salvage Rescue As Another Bk Fails


. (Updates with additional details, Rep. Frank comment)

By Jessica Holzer and Michael R. Crittenden . Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES .

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--As another U.S. financial institution failed, congressional leaders scrambled Thursday night to salvage a $700 billion rescue for Wall Street that was thrown into disarray by House Republicans who balked at a plan that relies on taxpayer funds.

House Republicans floated an alternative plan instead that they said would have private market participants insure toxic mortgage assets rather sell them to the government. Meanwhile, Washington Mutual Inc. (WM) failed and its deposits were acquired by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) in a deal brokered by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., highlighting the continued stress facing the U.S. financial system.

Resistance from House Republicans caught the Bush administration and Democratic leaders in Congress off guard, leading to a hastily called meeting with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to try and sort out House Republican concerns.

"The big problem is the taxpayer element of this," said Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wisc., the top Republican on the House Budget Committee. "The key is to do this without taxpayers bailing us out."

Sen. Robert Bennett, R-Utah, said top congressional leaders moved to regain control of negotiations over the package. "We never had a deal," Bennett said. "We had what we thought was a framework of an agreement that might work." Bennett said leaders plan to reduce the number of participants in negotiations going forward.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said getting House Republicans on board with an agreement was key for the rescue package to clear Congress. "If we can get support from the House Republicans this could be done in a matter of days," Reid said at an evening press conference.

House and Senate leaders met on the Senate side of the Capitol Thursday evening to discuss a way to overcome the impasse. Reid said both Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke were invited to attend the meeting. A Fed spokeswoman said Bernanke did not plan to attend.

The only House Republican initially at the meeting was Rep. Spencer Bachus of Alabama, the ranking GOP member of the House Financial Services Committee. Bachus emerged from the 8 p.m. EDT meeting after less than 30 minutes, sounding extremely pessimistic.

"I hope we get a plan by the weekend," Bachus said. "It's been frustrating."

Just seven hours earlier Bachus had joined a bipartisan group of lawmakers to announce a "fundamental agreement" on the rescue plan for Wall Street. Within a few hours, however, House Republicans said Bachus did not have the authority to negotiate in their name and were floating their own proposal despite the fact that House and Senate negotiators have been working closely with the Treasury Department and Bush administration on the rescue plan.

President George W. Bush, Paulson, key House and Senate lawmakers and presidential candidates Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., were present at the White House meeting when House Republican Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, announced that his rank-and-file wouldn't support the deal.

Speaking to reporters at the Capitol, Boehner spokesman Michael Steel asserted that there had not been any negotiations yet between House Republican and Democrats.

"At this point, we're waiting for a bipartisan negotiation that includes the House Republicans," he said.

Democrats said they were caught off-guard by House Republicans misgivings.

"No one brought it up yesterday," Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., said of the alternative plan. "No one suggested there was an alternative core idea."

In a statement issued before the evening meeting between Paulson and lawmakers, a Treasury spokeswoman said, "Treasury staff has been working with Congressional committee staff since Saturday. There are still open issues to be resolved, and we are committed to resolving them."

House and Senate lawmakers of both parties announced after meeting earlier in the day that they had reached agreement on the broad parameters of the plan.

But the Republicans who attended that meeting, including Sen. Bennett apparently did not speak on behalf of House Republicans. Steel said that Bachus wasn't empowered to negotiate for House Republicans.

He also asserted that a meeting between Boehner and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., earlier this week on the plan did not count as negotiations.

After the White House meeting, Pelosi told Paulson that he needed to convince House Republicans to get on board, according to Brendan Daly, a Pelosi spokesman.

Pelosi spokesman Nadeam Elshami said the plan would not move forward without the support of House Republicans.

"The speaker has said this has to be a bipartisan bill," he said.

House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass., said that despite the last-minute chaos House and Senate Democrats, Senate Republicans and the Bush administration were close to a deal.

Asked whether Democrats would move ahead with the plan without House Republicans, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said, "If it's going to pass, it needs to be bipartisan."

Frank said in this morning's meeting, Bachus made no mention of an alternative plan. However, he said Bachus told lawmakers he didn't have authority to negotiate on behalf of House Republicans.

"I'm frankly somewhat puzzled at this stage," he said.

McCain to save the day

Yep... There go the Washington Pricks.....

Get a nice game of brinksmanship going.

It's a sausage

Regardless.... You sometimes have to accept that your beautiful T-bone has become........ a Sausage

I swear I'm not becoming a republican.

...What they wanted to do was create a Liquid market for the CDO's.

To do that you need as many participants as possible.

as congress puts in things like the Warrants, CEO compensation rules.

it starts to exclude some companies.... Like credit unions, And some of the "good banks", From coming after the Liquidity.

Thereby, doing exactly what they don't want to do... Reward the people who did the bad things, and punish the Good.


In these cycles... you have to understand that the banks don't have to lend, They can sit for years and only let lose the slightest of loans. We have to convince them to loan. These are publicly held companies, they don't loan to "help america". they want to make money. Which is why we have to use socialism to entice them to loan.... We give them socialism, they give it to us.

bond market update

I mentioned that the 3month was up but the 6month and 1 year were down. as I sit this afternoon, all bonds are up, specifically the 3month and the 2 year. Even the 10 year is creeping up.

Good


Some follow through.

Hope springs eternal, The thing I like... is that "We earned it" today. Started up 50, and we Earned the gains. It wasn't Short covering, It wasn't Up futures. People came in to buy.

And so far... we have some follow through at the end....... SO FAR.

Libor

DJ British Bankers Association Libor Rates For Dollars

.All rates compared to previous day's fixing: .
. Current Previous . ------- --------
.O/N 2.56250 2.68750
.1WK 4.00000 3.93750
.2WK 3.93125 3.84375
.1MO 3.70875 3.42875
.2MO 3.73125 3.46125
.3MO 3.76875 3.47625
.4MO 3.82750 3.55375
.5MO 3.89375 3.62500
.6MO 3.97500 3.70125
.7MO 3.97750 3.71250
.8MO 3.98063 3.72375
.9MO 3.98250 3.73000
.10MO 3.97750 3.73875
.11MO 3.97938 3.74750
.12MO 3.98250 3.75750

I found Live LIBOR

on cnbc's site

funny how you can't search for it... but once you get the ticker.

libor 3 month Ticker: usl3m

Overnight Ticker: usl0n

this looks good

I've put some money to work.... This is a nice basing move..... they seem to be chasing them today...... Umn.... I'm still defensive.... but...


"We are from the government and we are here to help

I'd still rather be in bed

sentiment continues to lift.... Seems like ye old wall of worry

Benjamin Franklin

"We must hang together, gentlemen...else, we shall most assuredly hang separately"

Benjamin Franklin

libor read

In London trading on Thursday, the interbank cost of borrowing dollars for three months was indicated in a huge range of between 3 and 4.8 percent

Overnight dollar rates were closer to the U.S. Federal Reserve's 2 percent target rate but still high at between 2 and 2.80 percent, Reuters charts show.

yesterdays numbers were
overnight 4.4
3 month 5.06

a fuller glass

I like that Tony is bullish.... It's great.

Misch is completely Manic.... one of my favorite people to fade.

Universal calls for "it's different this time".

with bush telling everyone to throw the money in the mattress... seems like it's time for the contrarian to come out.

manic bears

So.... I'm seeing a ton of manic bear activity....

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Some word on the street

I woke up from my nap, saying I was optimistic and it was time to put some money to risk.

I just got some word on the street saying "it's different this time"... my impulse is to fade that. My feel is that a deal gets made, and things work out.

I've warned that every 40 years we make a huge mistake... or a series of disasters. the populist sentiment on this to "Fuck Wall street" is very much in line with that.

As the Fools who believe in "decoupling" learn the 40 year lesson..... decoupling of wall street and main street is a myth. It was obvious that congress could either be showboating, or are so fucking ignorant, they will buy it.

I see all this Anti Rescue/Bailout sentiment, Which is an absolute death to the economy. After the presidents speech... I wonder how many people really will throw their money into the mattress, and we will finally get the 40 year reckoning.

I have some bets on the table.... but I'm thinking about in no way going all in....

This crazy idea that we "won't bail out the economy"..... this is the 40 year old foolish flood.

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm willing to miss out on the rally.

maybe I'll feel different in the future.

sorry...

Damn I'm sick of talking heads interrupting congressional hearings....

I just don't care what is going on with the usual wall street suspects....

so.... I'm still suspecting a failed rally here... which may develop into an ABC correction... with a Retest.

The Pennant move is more an indecisive move....???

failed rally into the real rally



We had the failed rally yesterday, one would hope that today's rally would have a Dick... or Legs so to speak

Conspiracy!!!!!! They have Gross in on this BULLSHIT CON!!!

Bill Gross says Government makes 7% ROI on "Economic Rescue Plan"

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Treasury's proposed $700 billion bailout for financial firms could yield a profit of at least 7 percent to 8 percent and benefit taxpayers, Bill Gross, who manages the world's biggest bond fund, wrote in an opinion piece in The Washington Post on Wednesday.



The worst part is President hoover is going to try and sell this tonight


where is my Tinfoil hat!!!!! ;) (sarcasum)

Libor

British Bankers Association Libor Rates For Euros

.All rates compared to previous day's fixing: .
. Current Previous . ------- --------
.O/N 4.37500 4.41250
.1WK 4.72750 4.68500
.2WK 4.76000 4.70500
.1MO 4.91000 4.84250
.2MO 4.89750 4.84750
.3MO 5.06250 5.05250
.4MO 5.16125 5.15625
.5MO 5.22000 5.20750
.6MO 5.26750 5.25750
.7MO 5.29250 5.28000
.8MO 5.32125 5.30875
.9MO 5.34750 5.33375
.10MO 5.38000 5.37125
.11MO 5.41625 5.41000
.12MO 5.45750 5.45000

Congress

I think uncle ben needs to sell it better, The market knows that we could be talking about 10% unemployment.... he should talk about that possibility.

Also... "suddenly they are surprised" After a year of economic down turn, and congress and the senate being told, that there are many things they could do. I swear they were told to do some work.... and they have sat on their asses for a year... and "let do"... and now here we are, and they are surprised.

more of the spy

It concerns me that there is no ABC look to this correction... But Life is like that, could be the short selling..... could be that we have just been melting looking for buyers.

This looks like a developing basing move....

Buttet is an asshole

I mean... doesn't he know that Benjamin graham would not buy financials....

And he thinks Paulson is the right person in the right job, and that we are lucky to have him there. Doesn't he know Paulson is trying to stick it to the little guy!!!!!http://downwiththeinternet.files.wordpress.com/2007/12/hobo.jpg


he is going to get hosed.... Dumb ass!!!! ;)

The Half full glass

So... I feel like sentiment is lifting. There is some trouble with the congressional jarheads all morning.

Sentiment wise, I feel like we are easing.... Maybe get that wall of worry. So... here is the last 6 days of the spy..... I can make an argument for one more low in this trend. I can also warn that this isn't a healthy ABC correction. I've started to suggest that we have forming sideways motion, maybe a pennant.

But besides that it feels like sentiment is lifting, We also got the "Tony" panic indicator. http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics_images/fig_2.gif
This is an indicator that usually off the panic low. At the end of the wave 2 pull back. we get some panic out of him..... I get some panic too.... probably all of us. (Just playing here)

Bank runs in asia

Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of East Asia Ltd., Hong Kong's third-largest lender, asked police to investigate ``malicious rumors'' that sparked a slump in its stock and queues at branches across the city.

story

buttet bounce

I'm not buying it....

I feel as though I'm in the post bounce anxiety stage...

as I continue to suggest that the market may need to scare congress.

Usually when we get the 2 days in front of the nitwhits, the first day is the bad one for the market and the second is usually a little better.

We Get the Real Brain trust today..... CONGRESS... bring out the tinfoil hats.

The Unthinkable

In the 1970's the in response to a financial crisis, An unpopular government, stuck in an unpopular war, responded to populist sentiment and passed the price controls that lead to 12 years of economic pain.

In the 1930's Weak response to a financial crisis, lead to a series of horrific economic decisions. Which resulted in the most disastrous economic period in U.S. History.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Market is going to have to warn them.

Paulson's panic

Contrary to much commentary, Paulson's plan would not be the largest government intervention in the private economy since World War II. That distinction still belongs to Richard Nixon's imposition of wage and price controls in August 1971. True, Paulson would socialize unprecedented amounts of private debt, but Nixon asserted control over the entire economy. What's fascinating are the possible parallels between the two episodes, starting with a shared irony: Both came from administrations committed to "free markets."

When Nixon declared the wage-price freeze -- a complete surprise because he had consistently opposed controls -- the decision proved "wildly popular," Rice University historian Allen Matusow writes in his book "Nixon's Economy." By one survey, 75 percent of Americans supported it.

"There was widespread public rejoicing that at last the government was protecting the people," Herbert Stein, a Nixon economist, later observed. Consumer price inflation, which had been rising at a 4 percent annual rate, dropped toward 1 percent. People believed that by acting decisively government could outlaw inflationary psychology. It couldn't.

Inflationary pressures built up under the artificial lid of the controls. Moreover, the faulty economic doctrines that produced inflation -- easy-money policies aimed at maintaining "full employment" of 4 percent joblessness -- remained. When controls ended in 1974, inflation exploded to 12 percent. It averaged almost 9 percent from 1975 to 1981. Only the brutal 1981-82 recession, imposed by Paul Volcker's Fed and raising unemployment to 10.8 percent, ended the wage-price spiral.


When I was talking about the 5 min retest

this was what I was talking about ..... I wanted to see that trend Broken and successfully retested. Once you have that smaller 1 minute time frame tested.... You have to see the bigger retest... like a retest that goes on for 20 minutes or so.... How little time we had was a concern.

Cramer keeps drum beating 87...... I don't think we will crash.... but Mother market may need to threaten. Teach these people who is in charge..... WE ALL KNOW, NOBODY IS BIGGER THAN THE MARKET.

The dangerous thing is if these guys start thinking they are.

What is there to say.....

I forgot that we had 2 days of........ Hey.... Bennett is my senator.... he is in lockstep. Of course all of this after being the one who pushed to bailout for homebuilders earlier this year.

My favorite guys were all "I'm not even sure anything would happen if we dont' do this".

The market may have to scare these guys.

There is a purpose to the saber rattling, and grandstanding.

Libor Rates

Libor Rates For Dollars

.All rates compared to previous day's fixing: .
. Current Previous . ------- --------
.O/N 2.95000 2.96875
.1WK 3.84375 3.83125
.2WK 3.71875 3.64625
.1MO 3.20688 3.17625
.2MO 3.20313 3.17500
.3MO 3.21125 3.19750
.4MO 3.30750 3.27125
.5MO 3.38250 3.34625
.6MO 3.46500 3.42875
.7MO 3.47688 3.44563
.8MO 3.48938 3.46125
.9MO 3.50000 3.47625
.10MO 3.51250 3.49250
.11MO 3.52563 3.50313
.12MO 3.53688 3.51250 .
.Rates are effective two days hence. .Source: BBA via Reuters .

Bill Poole

Is he crazy..... he said that main street had decoupled from the credit markets.

There needs to be a Pool

How long will the Talking heads on Business TV.... allow themselves to be upstaged by the talking heads in the legislature.

1 minute retest

This has yet to be successful, but I am getting some good signs. But we still need to retest on a 5 minute scale.... Assuming this succeeds.

They are right about the equity stake

I'm a huge fan of the equity stake....

Problem is, they are trying to create a liquid market for them, and If a Financial institution needs to give up equity to participate. It will reduce liquidity, in that market.

something

Here is something. what we want to see is a retest on the 5 minute time frame.

Momentum low, secondary low

so it has yet to play out, but it's starting to feel like the market is waking up. one would think that we would get a slightly lower low here.

Missed that one

Bottom tick?

The spy

We continue to proceed with a descending triangle, I continue to look for the possibility of a turn. we did retest the 120.40 level... But we are headed to that level again for the deadly 3rd retest.....
It's possible we could break that level and form a bear trap.... or spike low.

I'm dying to know

If we are going to not learn from the mistakes of the past.......

this is more and more smelling like it.

It makes absolute sense to me, that just like the rats in a cage...

we will refuse to learn from the mistakes of the past.

Libor is back up today. Credit spreads back up....

I guess this is a good thing to many......

I wrote on another blog......

It's not like I care, I don't have kids. And I hope that those people who want the collapse....
I sincerely hope you can make enough money short the market to keep your family fed.

Leave a solution to our legislative branch.... One of those guys, had no idea who Pimco was.

hell, lets make it a referendum item on the November election.

America Vote:

  • Bail out the financial system
  • or
  • Lollypops for all..

hundred point bounce at the open

That is wild....

I said it's about oil, euro and gold

The dollar euro is doing an inside move..... 1.48-1.47

the inside moves... indicate we are WAITING

One of the standard Patterns

has been that we have the "bail out" ... then we test the low.....

Interesting thing is that we haven't done that..... But maybe we don't quite have the "bail out" yet.

Well

this is one of those days... It's actually kind of cold, I need some wool socks and a hoodie.

but that isn't what I was getting at. this is one of those days that I feel like the reward isn't worth the risk. Last time I said that, I coined money. but...

I still don't understand why people think there is a choice, There isn't a smart person I know who thinks this shouldn't happen.

My only concern is giving too much power to Paulson, Absolute power corrupts...

My prediction is we move sideways most the morning then have a nice dip... That should be the buy.

I don't get some people

Market 2.0-So far we are 1 ½ hours into Market 2.0 and the picture looks like a throwback to earlier in the year. Gold, oil and commodities in general are in the green and almost every other sector is in the red, with financials, airlines, and real estate logging the largest losses.


If the first day of market 2.0 goes down 300 pts....... I'll wait for Version 3.

quantifyable edges

I don't know wtf they are saying.

But what does it matter, they are more wrong than right.

Some times when conducting historical analysis a small sample set can tell you that the market is doing something extraordinary. Indicators reaching excessive readings often suggest an edge because when things get too extreme, mean reversion tendencies tend to kick in.

There are other instances where a small sample set simply suggests the market is not acting as it should. Monday’s action may be a good example of this...............

...

I would consider Monday’s action a warning sign.

me.... I'll watch gold dollar and oil for my indicators.

what i'll be looking for. Dollar euro moved to 1.485, Pulled back to 1.47... and now bounced to 1.4784..... If this is a failed move..... After failed moves you get fast moves.

Overnight.... and some stuff

Carter Worth was on fastmoney, Talking about going sideways for 2-3 months. Interesting to consider a 2 month Pennant. Might indicate we have lower to go here before a reversal.

Dollar Euro Peaked yesterday at 1.485, and has pulled back to 1.469.

Uncle Ben talks today..... Uncle Ben is the universal Sell indicator... But we have also set 2 or 3 "bottoms" while he testifies.

Maddox

Many years ago, stuck with insomnia.... I was doing random searches on the internet. I found myself doing a search for "Greatest web page", and I found Maddox.
It just so happens that Maddox is a local boy. Maddox used to be involved in database management for a telemarketing firm. Telemarketing firms are big here in Utah, We only rarely use our Utah Venacular accents, and for the most part they just blend in with the rest of america.

But, If you like a good angry rant Maddox is the man.

If you just want a good old Sarcastic Rant:

I just wanted a video game, not eternal damnation in hell.:


Worst movie in the world.... Maybe.

See how I like to Hedge.

I have a contestant for "Worst movie in the world".... I know it sounds like hyperbole. But...

Starship Troopers 3: Marauder.........

I've given it my own Special title.

MechWarrior Meets Jesus..... Or.. MechWarrior IS Jesus...


I know.... Sounds great doesn't it!

Monday, September 22, 2008

Nerves

So, traderfeed, I'm not going to link it, for technical reasons I can't go into.

But he points out that "Chasing Panic" these days.... Isn't working. and hints at the ramification of the oil market. I thought it was interesting.

I'm still cranky for some reason. It's probably because I was having such a nice weekend and we are back to the swinging 400 pt market nightmare, And I just want to watch cartoons.

Also, for some reason I'm getting off being a bullshit hedger. I actually have some good bets on what is about to happen. But I feel like being a Hedger.

Bespoke Quotes 87 crash and great depression.

After a weekend that many on Wall Street wished would last forever, investors were hoping these volatile markets would show some signs of stability after last week's craziness. Better luck next week. With a decline of 3.27% today, the Dow just registered its fifth 3% day out of six trading days. Only the '87 Crash and the Great Depression saw such short-term volatility in the markets.



I know I wanted the weekend to last forever.

I posted this a week ago

Back then Traders were in stage 10 as they begged for divine intrevention.

So where are we now? and in the Stages of grief, if we were in barganing? have we moved into depression? Acceptance?

Are we in "the wall of worry"Discouragement?

The question is...

Did oil traders follow the Folks from Nashville Tennessee, into the Tinfoil hat trade?

And Cramer Too?

Cramer says buy gold.

Where are we going?

up?
Down?
Sideways?

This is a Completed Elliot Wave.
This is not a Completed Elliot Wave ABC correction. Here is the Thursday through Monday move. Roughly, this is a 50% retracement.

Just the first move toward Armageddon? or the best pull back on the way to the moon? Or Part of a sideways move?

Phantix/phanta/Tradewell

Suggested a Volatile week, Looks like that is paying off in spades, with 120 oil.

And the possibility of Hyperinflation.... Or not... and it's all "boat rockers".

This Rate of change is not sustainable, and it scares me to chase any of it, as a long term trade.



http://www.tutor2u.net/blog/images/uploads/1000.jpg

The mad max trade

Again, it's obvious that when we find that oil and gold break, it will be time to go long.

Limit up on oil.... Wholy crap. the talking heads say it's a route of the shorts in the october contract. But if the longs are bidding it up... don't they have to exit. unless shorts are fighting themselves.

Commodity bull, gartman says... well at this rate, gas will be unfordable by the end of the week.

STOCK TRANSACTIONS

DJ NYSE STOCK TRANSACTIONS AT 1 00 PM

. Today Prev Day
.12 30-1 00 50,660,000 90,200,000
. 9 30-1 00 552,130,000 1,692,050,000
.1 00 PM NYSE Common Stock Index
.NYSE Composite 8059.07 UP 284.27
.NYSE World Ldrs 5971.08 UP 248.93
.NYSE US 100 5926.85 UP 171.89
.International 100 5816.05 UP 337.09
.NYSE TMT 5421.47 UP 136.44
.Financial 6334.36 UP 263.56
.Energy 13343.01 UP 1120.97
.Health Care 6257.29 DN 6.83 .

Mind blowing

The trade today, back to the Mad Max trade.

Yet another feed back loop.

Halted Crude oil..... Wholy shit.....

This is just amazing.

We are actually working on a Hyperinflation trade.

LIBOR

Overnight and 3 month libor donw.

DJ British Bankers Association Libor Rates For Dollars

.All rates compared to previous day's fixing: . .
Current Previous . ------- --------
.O/N 2.96875 3.25000
.1WK 3.83125 3.83125
.2WK 3.64625 3.69375
.1MO 3.17625 3.19000
.2MO 3.17500 3.20250
.3MO 3.19750 3.21000
.4MO 3.27125 3.29750
.5MO 3.34625 3.38250
.6MO 3.42875 3.45750
.7MO 3.44563 3.45688
.8MO 3.46125 3.45750
.9MO 3.47625 3.46125
.10MO 3.49250 3.46125
.11MO 3.50313 3.46000
.12MO 3.51250 3.45875

Wow!

This market is a whole new Beast...... Dollar trying to test 1.5

Emailed a buddy at Morgan

Asked him if I opened an account with MS, If I got a toaster.

CNBC said so....

Now I'm cranky

I should take the day off.

I'm going to make a call.

We may go higher,

We may go sideways,

We may go lower.

I bet I'm right.

Umn,

I'm excited about a basing move... I want more shots at the lotto ticket.

One can say that the regionals moved into Euphoria on friday, and are due for a correction. Like I said, "My Coke isn't sold short" does that mean that I don't pay fair price for my Coke? So, they can still correct.

Oil back up to 107... WTF.....

The dollar is getting killed...... *Sigh* 1.46

Remember Employment number is thursday, we could see a 2 or 3 day pull back.... and maybe it will bottom on Thursday with the employment number? Then it's NFP(payroll) and the expiration of the short rule.

THOSE ARE SOME HEADWINDS....

We all know I love the banks

But Let me share, I hate what happened. The worst part is they just hit the rocket booster, and... It's Too hard to trade.

I'm hoping that over the next few days they trade more naturally

THE BELL HATH RUNG!!!

AND THE LORD SPOKE AND "MARKET THOU HATH BOTTOMED."

I reiterate, the foolishness of such calls, but as I read this morning. I'm going to document the bottom calls.

  • TK... Calls for a developing inverted Head and Shoulders. Sugjests "KD Bar the door"
  • Trader feed says the low is in. P.S. - Stocks with notably positive money flows this past week include AA, CAT, DD, GE, HPQ, JNJ, JPM, MCD, MMM, PG, UTX, and VZ.
  • quantifyable edges, this was posted friday
  • Y'all didn't notice, but after I said that barry was looking for 1929, he came by, and said he had made 2 "bullish calls". I'm not going to link him, because he will show up and I'll have to spend time argueing with him. For Regular readers, There is nothing I hate more than "Bullshit Hedger speak", It's one thing to say "I don't know, or it's this or this I think... and probably "this". But to say things that you arn't acountable for, is a waist of time. This also accounts for TA which is "We went down today... We go down tomorrow" "We went up today, We will continue".... It's useless.
  1. He did have that post calling for "Biggest rally since 1929".... And I quote him "Combine the technical and sentiment factors with the government bailout, and you have the makings of a powerful -- but likely temporary -- rally.".... ("My comment:What temporary is is anyones guess, a 1000 point rally is a powerfull,but temporary rally" )
  2. He posted his post that the 50% point of the previous downturn, should create a rally. To quote. "That 50% retrace is where one would expect to see some sort of *rally*. I don't expect it to last very long, and its really a long term selling opportunity" "MY comment: We have had" some sort of 'Rally' " what 'last long' mean is hedger speak... A year, 6 months, 3 months, a week, 1 month.
  3. There is a post about fear has returned to the market and I quote: "The only question for traders is whether or not this sell off is closer to the ones seen over the past 2 years (in which case you can buy 'em here) or more like the 2000- 03 period (in which case we have more selling to go)." My comment: this is the first real trader talk I've heard from him, where "there is a rally, but not sure where it's going", One can make a case that this is bullish vaguly.

Wholy cow

Talk about the mother of all bottom calling weekends.

I hadn't read many of the regular blogs, but from what I'm reading, it's a combonation of "Anger" and Bottom calling

Sunday, September 21, 2008

MS and GS become banks.

Check this out

Fed boosts support for Goldman and Morgan
Central bank okays change in status for last two remaining investment banks.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve said Sunday it had granted a request by the country's last two major investment banks - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley - to change their status to bank holding companies.

Very interesting.

Ducati and the COO\ D00dZ3

Like I warned, You should leave Crazy alone. That is a huge waist of your time and emotional energy.

"Can't talk to a psyco like a normal human being"-poe (not Edger Allen)

Take the world off your shoulders Atlas.

Who do you think you are Don Quixoti?

Me, I have life to love, and money to make.

Some trades

Looking at ALGN and VAL
I've stated that both of these are high potential Bullish stocks. But lets look at how to work a short trade.

ALGN This has the most bearish look. It has a Nice dome top look to it, But again, if you imagine relative performance to the spx, it's very strong. It does have a nice red candle, on Friday there is a daily macd divergence to the bearish side. It follows the pattern of a nice Momentum high, followed by a secondary high. It also does not look like a very good "Basing" move, There is a case that it's in Aversion stage. before a push higher. The safe short is to short it when it "Crosses" not plays with the blue line, that should lead to a very aggressive correction. The red trend line is based on nothing but a 45 Degree angle, or a 50% retracement of the impulse move. Aggressively a short could be, placed on a 50% retracement of this move.
Still I don't like the look of the chart, and this is the third time it has teased with this resistance level.... Remember my rule of threes.... The third time resistance is tested, the more likely to go through it is.

VAL
This is a decent looking basing move, which could still have some sideways action in it. The recent high is a momentum high, and one would suggest that a secondary high is still in order. Firday has a nice green candle. the Blue line is the "Safe short". Again The red line is based on nothing but a 50% retracement of the last move, or a 45 Degree angle, an aggressive short initiated when it crosses ... Not Toys with this line. The yellow line is... well Thursdays and Fridays low tied together, That is an aggressive trade, and probably more a "Scalp" trade than anything. in this chart you actually have a nice bullish MACD

LOL

Funny, so many of us are so... off our sleep patterns.... Not one of us is in a regular pattern.

I got up yesterday morning at 3 am mt,
then fell asleep again at 7am,
slept to 10am.
Up till about 2pm,
and took another nap, got back up at 5pm.
Up till 11am, back up at 3am.

I did have a GREAT RUN, ran a mile and a half(ok, I call it running... more like a periodic jog over a mile and a half) I drank a fat coffee, Then did another 3 miles.

but I'm sure there is another nap in my future...

but I see blog checks from just about everyone in the past 6 hours... Either people staying up way too late, or way too early....

I HOPE WE ALL HAVE HAD SOME NICE REST, We sure do deserve it.

The other half glass

Er.... The other side of the Coin, Er.... The other side of the Tinfoil hat.


I was sent stuff about international peace day, and thought it was interesting, in light of the "other stuff" going on.

The other side of the Tinfoil hat

  • September 21: international day of peace.
  • UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in his message on the International Day of Peace, 21 September 2008 called on people of the world to send a powerful signal for peace that will be read, heard and felt around the world.
  • Hundreds of churches and Christian organizations around the world will pray for peace this Sunday on International Day of Prayer for Peace.

    In the United States alone, nearly 140 congregations and Christian groups are organizing public prayer events on Sept. 21.

  • Military ops in Afghanistan to halt on 'Peace Day' Taliban leaders in Afghanistan claim they will observe the United Nations International Day of Peace on Sunday. NATO's top general in Afghanistan has also ordered all international troops to halt offensive military operations to mark the occasion. But the promise to observe "Peace Day" coincides with a new al Qaeda video warning of new attacks in Afghanistan.

Tinfoil Hats
I didn't realize the Gas Panic was from Florida to Louisiana

Kentucky
Friday, 19 September 2008
Hurricane Ike caused panic to erupt at gas pumps throughout the area, even before the storm made landfall last Friday along the Texas coast. As the storm tore through the Gulf of Mexico, fears of supply disruption tore through not only McCreary County, but much of the country, prompting a sort of panic at the fuel pump.
The panic buying that wiped out gasoline supplies in Tallahassee and much of north Florida may have been triggered by an e-mail from a state worker.

TALLAHASSEE, FLA -- The message from an anonymous administrative assistant at the Department of Management Services warned of a dollar a gallon increase in the price of gas and advised people to fill up.
"...
They were told that by this afternoon, gas will go up $1 (yes, you heard me right) from its current price, due to Hurricane Ike hitting the Texas area. ... So if your finances permit, you may want to take a few extra minutes at lunch and fill up...."

That message was sent out Thursday and went viral on Friday. Drivers started lining up at gas stations... wiping out supplies within a few hours. Since then, state hotlines have logged thousands of complaints about gasoline price gouging and says they'll all be checked out.

Market addicts anonymous

I realized how active we all are, this weekend. Sure sign of addiction. We all have been fighting this for so long, so many days... we have an impossible time giving it up. I wonder what that means sentiment wise.

At one point I'm going to look at some charts.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Fastmoney

or stock market for deaf people.

Ican was on, had a great rant about how incompetent the CEO's are. Glorified Head of the Fraternity, His greatest skill is holding his liqueur. Surround them self with echo chamers, and yes men.

Mackey, after being suprised that Zero was an option last week, Is now angry that Zero is not an option this week.

Repriceing of risk......

Ok... No more mother market.... till late tomorrow

Tinfoil hate stage.

I'm trying to figure out which part of the sentiment cycle is "Tinfoil hat" stage

The 87 trade

This chart is the bounce back off the 87 crash..... It's a good example of a nice baseing move. I expect an upday, followed by a pull back. Some of you don't watch the banking stocks like I do. Most of this bounce is all banks, and I expect it to run out of steam monday or tuesday. I expect a possible spike high from 8:30-11 on monday, and a nice correction say tuesday or wed.

I doubt we will retrace the ENTIRE move from the last 2 days, but we need to find some buyers... we have gone way to far way to fast. Especialy in bank stocks. and it's most of the move. But I do expect buyers to come in on monday. but we should get decent sell off tueseday or wed

I can't take it

buy 700 billion in mbs?

but... I umn... seriously I can't do this shit another day, another weekend. All I'm thinking about is what else I can do besides think about it.

Palin Witch hunt.... or Witch hut of Palin's pastur.

It occured to me

It's 3am here, and I was Like I always do, looking outside for my WSJ. Which never gets here till 4:30-5am. I should bribe the paperboy to start his route here.

But I realized, I needed to gather up the last 2 weeks of the WSJ and save them.

and for all my soul refilling...

What do I get, .... after a week of financial horror. I get a nice 4 hour nap... not worried about markets.

Zombie Dreams.... Rich guy zombie dreams.... have to move to Alaska, because zombies don't like snow banks. Have to escape the city to get to massive avalanches away from the zombie... kind of dreams.

And I'm trying to work up the courage to unlock my door to "look around" kind of dreams.

Funny...

Hope the don't get me.http://www.aneyeoni.com/ART/Illustrations/Aleksi_Zombies_boxcover.600_600.jpg

Up-Tick Rule... Or is it UPTICK rule

I came up with one of my ideas. I'm going to have to send it to my legislators. If you think it's a good one, maybe you could too.

What we need isn't the uptick rule, we need a +5 or +10 uptick rule.

When the "Academics" that the SEC had a study done of the affect of the uptick rule, What they didn't realize was, that Back when the Uptick Rule was effective We traded in 1/16 Sizes.

When they did the study we had switched to .01, or 1 Cent sizes, and not the .08 sizes or 1/16 of a dollar. The Volatility was already in the market. Because we had increased it by a magnitude of 8 or 10 by allowing 100 ticks per dollar, instead of 16.

When they did the study, 100 ticks per dollar, made little difference in slowing volatility, since there were 10 Times as many ticks.

I'm still trying to get my head around how it would work... Would you need a series of 10 + ticks? or maybe a Plus tick over the course of 1 minute, or 10 seconds. Maybe there are better variations.

But That would reduce the Volatility. We don't need the uptick rule back, what we need is the uptick Rule increased by a magnitued of 8 or 10

Trying to feed my Soul

What a week. After all this nonsense I had to go try and ...Do some rebuilding of my soul.

I went out .... I don't normally drink, I used to drink all the time, but not so much anymore. Also I realized at one point, I trade poorly when I've been drinking.

But I love WINGS.... Hot as shit, trying to kill me WINGS. That and beer. so I indulged. Then I did some grocery shopping, because it wasn't enough....... Never enough, isn't it.

Got some root beer, 2 liters. I hate soda, Ok.. I love soda, so it has to" not be here". As I wandered the store, Grocery shopping with a couple beers in me is a nightmare. I had to fight the urge to buy a box of Oreo's or my uber sin, Chips Ahoy, and downing it with a gallon of milk...... MMMMnnnn. There I am trying to figure out how to fill my soul, and yet not get rediculous.... and not reinforce emotional eating.

So I managed to walk out with some grocery store sushie, 2 liters of rootbeer and a candybar.....

Cause that is how I Roll, Yo!

then of course I come back and watch 2 more hours of CNBC....

Friday, September 19, 2008

Barry calls for 1929

I'm holding him to it.

Sour grapes? does he need medication?

he has guts for making the call...


I don't know if it counts for anything.... but there are about 40X as many bottom callers than there were in july

I want a nervous breakdonw.

I umn.... Futures say +370.... GOOD GOD!!!!

I dumped a ton of shares... cause I made a shit load of money....

I HATE POSTING TRADES, I had one that went from 9 to 19 right now in post market.

Let me say on a risk reward ratio.... I feel like I earned every bit of it, and deserve a shit load more. But when did "What I deserve have anything to do with it."

which was why I dumped most of them.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

We Survived!!!!!!!!!!

Armageddon averted. I'm ready to puke. I think we will open up on monday, and then we should try and do some retesting. Umn.........

I don't know about Y'all........ But I'm fucking Tired.

My question to fast money.

If markets are efficient… and it’s all about price discovery.

Then if it’s the price of Pizza, or the price of a stock. Price discovery should be the same…. It should be efficient.

Regardless of short selling.

I have to be right, if markets are efficient, short selling shouldn’t matter.

the difference should be speed of price discovery. Right?

the size of these moves

I was just looking at a chart, and I was like, I need to cover at "that point in the chart" and just realize that was 5% lower than it's current value.... The stock was there 5 minutes ago.

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"