Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Accountability/ Sentiment

If you listen to Carl Icahn, you hear the meme about how there is no accountability in corporate America.

There was debate a day ago about "IF" wallmart was responsible for the death of the temp employee crushed in the Black Friday debacle. I find it unbelievable that there is even a debate.

Not that I've been to wallmart, but My impression is that they are open 24/7. (I could be easily wrong here). In broad strokes, seems like when you create that "Rush",Instead of say, Letting people enter 1 by one... Seems like you are responsible. But in our age of Laissez-faire, and lack of accountability. Anything can happen.

Saturday, November 29, 2008

gas

I was out running this morning, Realized that gas had just hit $1.50, after 6 months ago it being $4.00.

It Troubles me, as a big believer in Markets, and supply and demand, Even a "Lack of Inefficiency in markets".

This does worry me, Something is Seriously wrong in markets, when we can see that kind of swing.

Friday, November 28, 2008

sign of the times

that this year there was actually a fatality, shows the desperation for "Bargains" out there for Christmas.

slowing down


I have a software upgrade that is slowing my ability to rapidly post, takes me 10 minutes some times. Driving me crazy.

that is just simple EWT of what I'm looking at today... but then a correction into nfp

pennant

So, this was a developed pennant and One could sugjest that it's goingto break out into a bull trap at the close.
the above is not a link.

the naz wants to break down, but I'd guess that it would be more neutral today.

Seems like with some end of the month action, that will give us a nice bump into monday morning.

but when the air starts getting thin like this... I'm super cautious...

Thanksgiving

Well happy turkey day, yesterday.

half day trading today, not sure How I'll be involved.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

pro 17

What a stupid commercial. To start off with the quant models, that got it slightly right in the past weeks... now they are touting themselves as experts.... with the CNBC version of a used car commercial.

but the commercial says "we had a forecast on the jim cramer stock of the year NYX"...

I hate to tell them, that was his stock of the year for 2007..... how can I trust that they are sensable when they can't even get the details right.

Jim Rogers

still bullish on china after a 90% correction.... WTF.

Sure it's a good trade now. but why take the correction....

sometimes I think Rogers is full of shit.

Not that he is wrong, but that he says he has shares in china, but that they are a minimal investment.

I'd love to see his tax return.

Market

The day tends to come in 3 forms, a morning leg, an afternoon leg, which are significant. then some kind of lunch correction.

That the market rallied through 11:30. That is a 3 hour move. that is sometimes proportional to the afternoon leg. Which would suggest that the correction will be 1-2 hours... specifically 1.5 hours.
n
the way the market is moving feels like "the bottom is in" trade, and we need to get some nice euphoria, which should also be a "Shorts are in Hell" phase, as they have been waiting for a correction to get out.

Euro Fast Money Jim rogers

Jim Rogers today on Power lunch.... That should drive the Euro dollar down another 1%.. The euro is getting Creamed today.

Like I talked about, and as a great example of Teresa's model. All this HyperInflation talk is a perfect example of how a top is formed, as all the schmoes jump into the Pool, and it's time to get out.

Now! I still want the spy to get into the resistance in the 90 range(900 on the spx) to see a heavy contraction. That could take till Monday for that correction.

BUT this feels like this could be a near term toppy move.

so

Sell on Obama has worked 2 times... short term...

the rule is 3rd time doesn't work...

how can the market not like Volker.????

I don't believe in "NEWS" trading...

but shit IT'S VOLKER!!!!!!

WTF this morning

My equities trading is kicking ass, but....

so, this morning I get caught in a bear trap, then again about 30 minutes ago I got hit in another one.... But then that Bear trap turned into a Bull trap, that I saw, and now I'm FLAT....

Problem is I focus on equities and sort of ignore the other stuff..

did I mention we are consolidating and that playing both sides is going to be the way to play.

this is the past 2 days and this morning

this is a Base building move/consolidation....

but be warned I always say that before we leg down.

but in the past 20 min we have managed a rebound in financials.... so....

financials can now go sideways, find both buyers and sellers, and arn't at support, which was why I felt we would get a bounce..

The key here may be to play the volitility, Play both sides and just trade it out..... listen for some euphoria on cnbc.

market wants to fight

watch for a topping move here

market

the weakness this morning is in the wrong places financials, marine transports, utilities, tech, biotech. Seems like a short term buy. strength in retail oil weak retail, strong consumer...

I heard it again... HyperInflation

I havn't listed to Schiff lately, but 4 months ago he PoPo'ed that word.

PETER SCHIFF was realistic about HYPERINFLATION. the reason for hyperinflation would be if, We started WW3 Lost it, then the world forced us to pay for it, so we printed money to pay it off.

that is how you get hyper inflation.

NFP

The Employment Situation for November 2008 is scheduled to be released on December 5, 2008, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time

Personal stuff

I went out running, I finally have a good pace, not that it's a "Good" pace, but that it's a pace and I can maintain it for a few miles.

IT IS SO FUCKING COLD OUT THERE, I was saying I should run later in the day, and yet.

Speaking of which, after talking currency and looking at it this morning I decided to short some Swiss franc as a proxy for the over done move in gold. Short term....

I also shorted the euro as a play,

these are just trial moves.

Fast money- Hyper inflation

I'm wondering if the call by the fast money croud is going to mark a top in the current correction in the dollar,

I'll note that the eurodollar was 1.30 yesterday and now it's 1.29.

gold, is down $4

Bank and a hard place

As we know I like to look at the conundrums that face us. (different that the Alice in wonderland notions, but they smell similar.)

Banks have to loan:

  • Problem is that the reason banks are in trouble is because the market is taking bets on if the loan loss reserves are enough for the bank to survive.
  • If a bank Loans out of the loan loss reserve... Less probability it will survive.
Corporations/CFO's are complaining that banks arn't loaning enough... or at the rates that institutions would like *wink*
  • as part of the deleveredging Some of the corporate debt should be next. Think insurance companies, but also some companies that felt they could just borrow short at 3% forever. They now are having to come to terms with the fact that they have to pay 10-15%. It's interesting that the annualized Dow return is also 10%.... 10% seems like a proper equilibrium(realize that there are 10-20 year bear cycles with 10-20 year Bull cycles, so the Return in the bull cycles is 20% per year)
  • CFO's will have to get used to borrowing money in the 6-9% range, and just live with it.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Hyperinflation

Teressa Just pointed out... Well this is the thought I had today.

Back on my Theme of "Through the looking glass", I was remembering how the Trade of the Jan-May period was some kind of "Great Depression Redux" and Hyperinflation Trade.

It's interesting that, people thought that somehow we could go through Massive Deflation as the "Shadow Banking system" collapsed, and have Hyperinflation. As I was sitting here and listened to the "Fast Money" crowd, and the stared talking about Hyperinflation. BTW they were more talking about "super sized inflation" even though they said Hyperinflation and invoked "Jim Rogers".

Cause if you believed in Hyperinflation, you would move the hell out of anything in dollars. I'm not saying that there isn't inflation somewhere down the road..... But that is somewhere down the road, and after the contraction is over.

the old Portfolio challenge

I find it stupid that I'm sitting here trading and I have to... figure out where tings are going to close, and where it will be in Tomorrow's close, and try and figure out when to make different moves.

all of this While trading.

fortunately this time the site is faster, It took 30 minutes to make changes in the last hour of trading, last time, this time I managed to trade 2 portfolios in 8 minutes.

what I need to do is trade currencies, that is where you get mean trading chart patterns and you can do it after the market closes.

Carter

I keep Mocking Carter Worth. Something happened to him after March. He had a great hit rate from November through march and has been shooting blanks ever since. of course you can't count on him to be eternally wrong.

So, his prediction was a Muddle in the 8-9k range.

A good sign was that he finally admitted being wrong with his last call. So maybe he realized hubris had gotten the best of him.

If you want probabilities, I say 60% he is correct here, I give him the benefit of the doubt.

Power lunch

I'm starting to become "Won Over" by the format of Power Lunch on CNBC. Please Parse what I'm saying, the format is good.

What I would really like is if they had 4 or five Brilliant Traders or economists, Chewing over the fat of the market, for an hour or two.

Of course the "Rock and Roll" Theme and music.... Well it is just the Cheesy Silliness that is Apropos to the program. I'd complain, but it is just too beautiful.

observation

Today Sheila Bair, had a speech about the banks.... and as a Sweet little head fake, Paulson spoke at the same time, knowing that The treasury secretary trumps the FDIC on CNBC.

I'd suggest that it's intentional to take the focus off of the bank info, and onto Paulson.

This is one of the brilliant things about Paulson, and yet... Nobody is bigger than the market. one could suggest that these moves slowed the correction down over the first 9 months of it, and exacerbated the october move. So not so brilliant. It is interesting.

I am still a little bummed that Bair isn't the new Treasury secretary.

did you know

Yesterday on the spy, was the best follow through volume we have seen yet.

30 pts on the SPX was the sell off yesterday.... that is ridiculous.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Fast Money, Shark Jump

... I like Fast money, mostly for sentiment.

One of the interesting things was in an argument with the new economic adviser Laura Tyson, where everybody seemed to be blaming everyone else for circular logic.

I'm not taking sides, but I've always seen; not only our financial system, but our whole economic system as Socializing the risk and Privatize the profits. What do we think the reserve is for? That is what Supply side economics is. Roads are only Free because it decreases transportation costs for goods and services. Every time we use government to "stimulate business" We Socialize the cost, and privatize the profits. This is what we do.

Regardless of the "FreeMarket" bullshit Traders talk... there is no more honest statement made than by Jeff Mackey after Lehman Failed "The Treasury INTRODUCED 'Zero' as an option in the market"

It has always been "understood" by the market *wink wink nod nod* that many companies were "Too Big To Fail".... It is still Mind blowing that somehow, Now it's Socialism and bad.

Again, I'm just here to make money... but this constant declaration of "Capitalism is dead" reminds me of all the anarchists who are always decrying how we don't really live in a Pure Democracy so they don't vote.

Tom Friedman- Inauguration

suggested that inauguration date should be moved up.

What do you think? Congress can get together debate and amend the constitution in the next 2 weeks to get it moved up to... ??? Christmas?

old chart but

we blew past that Live trendline(the non horizontal resistance), and found some at 87 on the spy. I expected more resistance in the 88.50- 93.50 based on the horizontal.

Umn... then next trendline is at 96We have seen, now some struggling with that trendline in white, and I expect some struggle with the 20-30 dma.... Point is there is a ton of resistance in that 90 range.

Certifiable Rally

-Melissa Lee says.....

I just heard the Wrongest Trader in the world Joe TerraNova talk about how the market is a Pool... and we have seen them clean the pool.... but we want the pool tested...

This reminded me of this morning when somebody was talking about "Cutting the blood off to the Cancer" .... For about 2 minutes I tried to figure out how that analogy applied to the market, and how the Market analogies are getting out of control. Then I realized they were talking about a Cancer drug.

I think Dylan gave the analogy to TerraNova... I think When Dylan needs a Shill to talk His book. TerraNova gets the call.

Eric Bolling 5 stages of grief

It seemed to indicate that he feels we are in the Bargaining Phase(phase 3), As opposed to Smarty Pants money which hits more at a despair phase.... I would suggest that if you were using the 5 stages of grief the turn would be after depression.. and if a market did turn at acceptance, it would be early in the acceptance phase.

Speaking of the 'b' word

The idea that a sovereign fund can catch a bottom is works against that theory.

Alwaleed

Don't you think it would help Alwaleed's credibility if he knew that in the U.S. We use the last name as the Surname, and not the First... Of course all of this probably has to do with Indian names being a "Trade" name, and not a Family name.

but still Commonly "Mr. Pandit", Not Mr. Vikram.


Pandit, is "learned Man" or Brahman Scholar,

LOL

Prince Alwaleed......... WHAT AN ASSFUCK....

He is all about STRICT STRUCTURES FOR BAILOUTS FOR AUTOS, and keeping it reasonable.........

but for "SHITTY GROUP"... WE JUST BACKSTOPPED THEM TO INFINITY.... and gave them 50 Billion.

TALK ABOUT MARGIONAL, OR RELATIVE LOGIC!!!!!!!

Jesus!!!! "Alice Alwaleed"... how is wonderland......??

That's funny

I haven't blogged anything this morning.

Big cap financials are preforming this morning... Or shall I say formerly big cap financials.

Best sign this morning was that it took 5 hours for me to hear the "B" word..... As well no talking head has yet to come out calling it. Let me add that several times they have pulled out a talking head to try and "Time" When to sell the rally...

I'm not a "Bottom" caller, and try not to use the word. Since my trading models, have to to with Dates and events, and Momentum. It's unnecessary.

Friday, November 21, 2008

Can't have it both ways.

If this is The Great Depression II.

We will fight Disinflation the whole cycle, Which has another year too it.

We don't get it both ways. Global contraction and inflation.

My new auto thought

It's all game theory..

So you buy a GM car, with the risk that even with government backstopping the warranty, there is still a risk... and there is still risk that in case of chapter 7 and I'll end up filling out federal paperwork for 30 hours and calling bureaucrats for a few days to get the front end looked at.

Or

I can buy a Honda/Toyota

FDR

So, I'm working on game theory. I've been trying to figure out the game people keep playing with the "I pay my bills, Nobody bails me out... Why should I bail out the ...(insert bailout candidate). "

I've "felt" that the inevitability that the people who show the "Moral High ground" and want to give out the "Tough Love", would override the self preservation impulse, and that that would provide the needed systemic risk.

I'm not saying that we should bail out the big three, I'm still on the fence about it.

But I'm checking out this FDR documentary, and I realize the same game is the one we played in WWI and WWII with Isolationism. As people Waited Until the fire was actually burning the couch they were sitting on, before taking action. Which was also the game that Congress played when they needed the political cover of a thousand point drop in the market to allocate the 700 billion.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Let me give you one more indicator

Barry Trolled by to check out my sentiment....

What that shows is that he is head scratching.....

Cramer

Wow... Cramer has become Dissociative... Slightly so. He has again hit that point where he tries to dictate policy.

Check this out

Apparently, according to Kass "time can run out for a Rally" I guess when time runs out, the sun doest't come up.... and I guess the market just goes to Zero and never rallies again..

My old meme

Somebody said something this week...

During the great depression GDP was cut in half.....

anyone seen that?

So... I'm back on my meme... Like schiff says this is going to go on for a while. So between now and a year or 3 years from now..... The market has to go somewhere... Ok... so over the next 2 weeks we go to 400 like Yamadda says... AND THEN WHAT...... The market has to go somewhere.. Right?

Trying to price this in at this point.... Just goes to mention the amount of volitility between now and then.

Ok... Some reality check

BTW I just can't believe how many companies have to roll over so much short term debt.

Peter Schiff was on Fast money.... If that isn't a contrary indicator...

Yamada said... "SPX 400-600"

Can I be Technician of the year if I say "SPX 750-500". She also said a low below the 2002 low.... I hate to wake her up out of the Bong Pipe Haze, but....Has she checked a chart.... been there done that, Princess.

Teresa pointed out the Large percentage falls people keep talking about not realizing it. Hence the 50% hair cut from here she is calling for.

And Schiff who wasn't talking about Hyper inflation 6 months ago, is now smoking the crack of his own ass... and is now talking the whole 'Enchilada' as much of his Armageddon as he could.... and Pimping a new Book, If Schiff couldn't speak Hyperbole, would he have anything to say?..... and during this will he actually suggest that "The Sun Will Explode!"... My money is on Yes.

kevin farry

was throwing out the "B" word.... Hesitantly, on closing bell.

He said "This(the move in Treasuries) Was what they wanted to see out of treasuries, in the final parts of the bottoming process."

maria caruso cabrera

What is it that for some reason she finds it necessary to speak to me(or us) like she is a porn star or like she is my girlfriend trying to instill confidence after bad performance(not that that has ever happened Mind you).

" We will be back in a moment... On this... which is a Historic day in the market. "
........
....
..

"Happy birth day Mr. President.......... Happy birthday........ "

Why do I always think she is just a naughty girl, and needs a good spanking.

I think I'll rename her 'Bubbles'

Maria Caruso 'Bubbles' Cabrera.....
Maria 'Bubbles' Caruso Cabrera.....
Maria Ca-'Bubbles' Cabrera....

Her father would be Proud.

http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/2848/5052508jq9.jpg
(let me just start by apologizing right off the bat. I know how Narcissistic, 'Reporters' are. I suspect this post will get her attention. I'm sorry... this is more a me joking about what an attractive woman you are, and as a fairly liberal person... how uncomfortable I am with it, and yet I'm Ok with it.)

The Charlie Gasparino Kiss of death

Gasparino just gave City the old "City is fine, they would have to be lying in order to be in trouble"...

Just like he did when he said " I trust Dick Fuld more than any of these bears, They arn't lying"

seems like the kiss of death to me.

maybe we can get a nice moodies downgrade in the next few days.

funny thing

DJ Citi, JPMorgan, Capital One Bid For Chevy Chase -Report

.

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES .

Citigroup Inc. (C), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) are among the final bidders for Chevy Chase Bank, Reuters reported Thursday, citing sources familiar with the matter. Other banks that looked at Chevy Chase include SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI) and BB&T Corp. (BBT), one source said. "The key thing with that bank is that the asset side is not very attractive, but the deposit side is incredibly valuable because it is in Washington, D.C.," the source said.


Funny part is that it's in Washington D.C. perfect place to piss off lawmakers who have said "We gave you this money to Loan out, not to buy banks. It will be hard for the banks to explain how going after the "Troubled" ones... isn't the same as buying banks out.

that isn't a bad move

I'm not hopefull here

we will see, but with every cnbc reporter now a technician.... and calling for a reversal this morning...... It's just not much to hang your hat on.....

This is stupid

So... Been watching west wing on bravo.... The idea with bravo was that they would rerun drama's of exceptional quality... and yet.. they run some west wing... at odd hours 6am 2am 7am....

the rest of the line up seems to be Trials and tribulations of the mentally ill...
http://www.nancarrow-webdesk.com/warehouse/storage2/2008-w29/img.271287_t.jpg

some T.A.



I have good wave forms here.... One would suggest that we need a solid high volume reversal. But I want to see a nice bottom that nobody sees.... with the calls for much lower and 6k.... seems like a good time for some kind of surprise. I'm not saying now, even though I'm ok with the wave forms.

What I'm saying is I'm looking for things to surprise.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

If I were in congress

you have no idea how insulting I would be.

Lots of me saying "You must think, we are the dumbest people in the world to come here and obfuscate just about every question. Then expect help"

I still am not sure about what we should do... I expect them to bail them out... I may have felt that same way about LEH....

auto deleverage

So far my favorite thing... "How if you go to Mexico for this money, Those are the jobs we would be saving"

Apparently this is on cspan 3, I hate getting commercials, and I hate hearing Pisani instead... Hearing Congress is just like listening to the idiots on CNBC... only it's new idiots.

I keep working on Game theory, I keep wondering how many units of Utility "putting the Stick to the Big 3" is worth.

Mother market

I don't know what to say about it.....

Technically I read it as sideways.... Even though I don't believe in sideways.

My Model says we should get a nice run from now till friday/monday.

One significant though I had was that the market just wants to "Pretend Bottom" here. It thinks we can just "price it all in" here..... And we can't the damage has to play out over the next year. "Are these the lows"... Who knows... but we need to go through the motions. My contrarian thinking says "The market wants to believe this is the bottom".... that won't happen, we will get some kind of "huge relief" "that was the bottom" bounce..... then we will have to retest, and it should scare the shit out of every one.

this just goes back to my theme that this was just too much and you can't price in a 2 year recession after 1 year of it.... and we can't just sit here for 6 months.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

I just love this stuff

congress figured... 700 billion to rescue mortgage payers.

What the hell "Rescue" means...

I'd pay big money for the thoughts of Ben bernake as he is questioned by Ron Paul....

Paulson thinks he is in charge

I could watch this stuff all day... He thinks he can stick to his intent. He needs a little clearer direction from congress. He also needs to realize he isn't in charge.

To be honest we need a president... Somebody needs to come up with a central plan.

Somebody suggested that Sheila baer for treasury.... I think thats a damn good idea.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Futures

I was just thinking about ..... Seems like most people should be afraid to do about anything but day trade, with swings in the futures of 200Pts.

The Great Triple Bottom

I mock..... but there still is a chance of that .... "Bouncing ball trade". I know I don't believe in sideways trading. The market action feels like both Up and Down. I would think that would suggest sideways trading.

Some Dumb ass is saying that C needs to make an acquisition, I'd say the bias would be against it. Congress doesn't want the Tarp Bank Welfare money to go for that, and it seems like to make the biggest unwieldiest bank even larger is a huge mistake. It also seems to me that the FDIC is trying to keep the consolidation smaller and spread out, giving the failed small banks to the medium ones.

Still My official call based on my model is that we have an upward bias through next monday. I guess there is a chance we will go down till then and that will be the inflection point.

Umn.... sounds like I could be wrong...

All work and no play.....

You know... you get up at 2am, and work all morning.... about 11 you are exhausted.... regardless of the coffee.

now, I'm all about City and GS getting Clobbered ..... but they need to stabilize so the market can get some legs.

BBC Homebuilders

I saw a documentary over the weekend about the credit crunch...

I love the homebuilders (sarcasm) they were like "Well we need the government to step in and provide a way for us to turn the homes into rentals... Cause if we lose all the jobs"... bla bla bla... isn't it apparent that too many homes have been built... and there needs to be less of them...

NEWS FLASH mark cuban charged with insider trading, that asshole.... he has always played it fast and loose. no details yet something about mama.com

Next

My guess is the next part of this won't be the auto's it will be the insurance companies... you know insurance .... the guys who take money and never give it out....

"we didn't understand that we had to pay for this stuff.", They will say.... "We need TARP money"

Signed up for the portfolio challenge

Every time I find it too unwieldy to trade..... and anticipating the close is a bitch. And since I reflect on the market in the morning and after the close...

It's just massively inconvenient. We will see.

So.... since the election... I'm more Psyched to watch the west wing every morning than Squawk....

Atlanta mayor

Begging for money from the TARP...

they should ask.... "What Troubled assets do you have?"

then.

"If you need this money... Should investors be worried about investing in Atlanta Debt? Sounds like you are going through Tough times. Does Moodies Know about your Financial Troubles?"

This tarp money has become like Pan Handling. http://www.cartoonstock.com/lowres/cpa0025l.jpg

Friday, November 14, 2008

Shitty Leads the way

Opps... sorry City never sleeps

resistance levels

Thes are some of the resistance levels I'm looking at.

Morning

I had a nice wakeup this morning with Joe, barking about how he loved the smell of Napalm in the morning.... or maybe it was how wet he was for Bush's speech. And As he and Kudlow try and give him responsibility for the rally.... I hate to point out that this pullback (above white arrow) is when he was giving his great speech.

I'll also pose that Joe has finally caught that "FreeMarkets for Everyone But me" bug that seems to be going around. Either you let the efficient freemarket system Implode under it's own weight... or you admit there are some bugs in a "pure Free Market" System.

Let me also reiterate my thesis that one of the biggest problems is when you put a "Business man" "Free-Market guy" in charge of Government. They don't realize that government has a place in business.... Like educating Workers, providing Roads, Security, fairness through Regulation, and maybe even Stopping Market Consolidation/monopolies, which are the natural result of "Pure Free Markets"..... We'd all work for Wall-mart... Or JPMorgan, or Microsoft....

Let me also throw out another Thesis I have... That last time we had Truly "Free-Markets" was this little remembered time between the Romans and the Renaissance.... Little known time called "The Dark Ages".... back when nobody could read or Write, and people just Killed at random..... Ahhhhh the pure free market.Ahhhh The Bush Economic Prosperity...... You have to assume that some of this can be attributed to him and his Republican Majority..... What a Legacy.... Go Free Market Deregulation..... He Swears it will get this economy going some time...... Year 3000 I bet things would have turned around by then..

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Tripple bottom

One thing that gets me is, I heard the "Tipple Bottom call"... which is a joke..

Now you can talk about a double bottom on a monthly.....

we will see... I'm not convinced.... and I think this is going to take some aggressive trading.

recap

I'm not sure what to think about the bounce.

there is still that chance of that bouncing ball that is going to run out of steam.

also a 50% retrace.... Also a continuation of the descending triangle....

It was a much stronger bounce that I figured.

87


that is the earlier high...... Umn.... these moves are so large... Umn....

just for cnbc

the close low is 83.9584.30 seems to be better resistance.... Seems like we are, on an intra day basis trying to retest

These moves are so large it is hard to see the higher highs and higher lows.... this sort of is a higher high.

700 pts in 2 days


1700 in a week.... and that is just a huge move. So we broke the resistance and are finding some chop.

Oh........

one of the random talking heads on cnbc giving out technical calls.......

What a great contrary indicator...

especial when they are calling resistance on a closing basis vs intraday....

chart

Yesterday I talked about Symmetry79.3 is the max downside I have.... the minimum is... Now.

Umn.... I've said it before, My biggest concern is that we are trying to price in Too much too fast. Maybe it's just the information age... but the economy does have to Churn it's way through this.

Morning

I'm prepped for the standard Monday Tuesday reversal.

I'm going to keep my eyes open.

I spent 30 minutes trying to sort out the trade setup over at InvivoAnalytics. Maybe it's fatigue but besides saying "It's a continuation pattern" of the broader trend, it's all I have. There are some weird inconsistencies with my read on the pattern and what is going on.

I keep expecting the market to surprise us all somehow.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

I want to throw shit at paulson.

I'm not against him talking. He just hit Lame duck status today. new plan for him to execute in the last 2 months of his term....

What is this... Plan 9.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4e/Plan_9_poster.JPG

rule of threes

what is that rule... the third retest it goes through....

set up for a nice monday/tuesday reversal?

Alright Now I have a complaint

It's official,I think paulson has no plan, and is just throwing shit at the wall to see what sticks. It's desperation, and to be honest, lack of a plan, and lack of any form of Competence.

Instead of letting market forces go to work, and I'm not talking about letting companies go bankrupt, What I'm talking about is allowing the Dynamics of Markets to close the holes in the dam.

He apparently wants the Federal government to move in and replace private investors in all markets.

If investors don't want to invest in ABS, or MBS or any of the former securitized markets... It's time for those markets to evolve. There is demand for those markets... but you can't just prop up a market, and be a Bidder for new issues because you can't find one. It's one thing to do it for Old assets, but to do it for new ones, is Asshatery, if that is what I'm hearing.

I'm still trying to figure out his plan......

but I think so is he...

Trucks banks

and forest products....trying to lead the market...

laggards Coal footwear tires,casino's steel...

interesting laggard... Real Estate.

I was going to post

Something about the lack of symmetry. overall... my big complaint is that I'm bored with the selling.

Speaking about symmetry, I'm not a fan of fractal analysis.... seems like voodo

If only things were different, I would win

... I've heard hours of debate by the republicans, "if only the financial crisis hadn't happened, McSame would have won."

Somebody said yesterday "putting republicans in charge of Government, is like letting a Vegetarian choose the Steak you are going to eat." When somebody doesn't believe in something, why would you put them in charge of it.

Some Yahoo is on Squawk saying "if only Wachovia had the Tarp, it would have been ok." Same thing was said about Lehman.

even with bailout money these banks weren't going to loan.

and if only I had won the lotto when I was 18....... bla bla bla...

do people think they are fooling everyone, or are they just stupid.

the word yesterday

was that Bush wanted to bargain a trade deal with Columbia for a bailout for the automakers. I'd like to see bush veto that bailout.... I'd be amused at the drama. If you are the Democrats, you just wait 3 months.

That guy is a Genius

6 hours

I managed a straight 6 hours of sleep, since the nightmare started. For the most part I sleep 3-4 hours, then catch a nap... and for the first time(excluding weekends) I managed 6 straight hours.

Thoughts this morning... GM, they aren't going to let them fail, I'm still divided about it. Santelli was saying they shouldn't do it, but he has a Chicago bias. I honestly want to let them fail, but it is a ton of decent jobs, you know the industrial prosperity model that henry ford threw out... That socialist, I see it as important. If it fails, it seems counterintuitive, but I think we will go through a re-unionisation of America.

Just like GM is a Failed model, I think the unions are too... It may be time to rethink both models.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

so......

I'm still sketchy about this possible reversal. I will say that this feels like a reversal, if not it should happen soon.

I hate to sort of agree with Barry, and I'm not sure if he has changed his mind or is now hedging or whatever, but I just think this is the kind of low that holds for a while, Month-Months.

My thesis is that we need a high volatility low, then a low volatility low, and if we don't have a nice bounce this will continue to be a part of the High volatility low, and will still need to be confirmed with a Low volatility low.

We haven't seen a Higher Low in quite some time... My mojo may be off in identifying them...

sideways


I'd like to see us up significantly into the close to be more positive on the market overall.

end of the day

Lets see what the last hour brings.

how did I know

what the whoever it is that cnbc said is responsible for this bounce said it... whatever it was.

compass

Here is the spy... I feel like my mojo is off... because I want to say this is the turn... We just haven't seen a lower high for so long....


from the charts Industrials and energy look best.... Retail and Teck look nasty

where were we.

well we moved through the bear flag. The market action suggests to me that we will get a higher low ... seems like we are at least trying.

This is the most interesting market action I've seen in months.

but Maybe it portends another 2K pt drop.

Mark Hains

Some solid Indignation today about how the responsible get shafted. I always roll my eyes at this, First of all... Yes the responsible always get shafted, Just think about the elderly who get screwed with inflation just so that the market can go up from year to year...

the millions who listen to "bubbleVison/CNBC" and get screwed chasing performance every year... Want some Righteous Indignation.... Here is some... MARK YOU WOULDN'T EVEN HAVE A JOB if it wasn't for People getting screwed getting poor investment advise and getting shafted.

Want more Righteous indignation, how about the millions of people out there who have real jobs and produce for the country, Try and put money away in the market for retirement, only to run into an Uber bear.

Which gets me to my broader point......

I keep seeing this bullshit around the net, about how somebody is gaming the mortgage system, by not paying to renegotiate.

I hate to call them fucking liars... but I'd suspect they are, First off you apparently purchased a bubble... Tough shit. Second if you are falling behind, my guess is that it's not that you are gaming the system, it's probably that you got a mortgage you couldn't afford... See, somebody who would try and "Game the system" would also be the kind of person who would, would get Caught in an option arm that reset, as you moved from one smaller home into a larger one that you couldn't afford.... So... Truth is, your a deadbeat and need to be De-Leveredged.

Further, if you can afford your mortgage the bank is going to look at your income, and call bullshit...

My point is "people who say they are going to game the system"... are full of shit.

Malware.

A few months ago, I found a great Malware remover.

Malwarebytes anti-malware.

So if you are seeing any Wonkey behavior, or even just for piece of mind. It seems to be solid, I'm sure in the next 2 years they will get Taken over, and it will become useless, so that Mcaffee or Symantec can sell you another add on package.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Off chance

there is that off chance, that we are trying to build a base for a higher low.

try this again

we are seeing some leadership out of select financials, Regardless This is probably only a short term bounce.

i guess not

Feels like a turn


Having a hard time holding a bid here. Let me hedge by saying I'm not very positive about the market action.

Amazon Recomends for you...

I was ordering some books and these were some recommendations specifically for me

"Stay mad for life"

"Noam Chomsky: Failed States"

"The history of the Peloponnesian War: by Thucydides"

BTW Google spell check doesn't have the word peloponnesian

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Enigma

I caught Enigma yesterday. Of the 12 movies I've seen this weekend it's been the best.

Tropic of thunder
was OK,

Tooth Fairy was bad but not bad enough. It did make me laugh a few times.

Burn After Reading
, was ok but seemed like an excuse to for Francis Mcdormand to get plastic surgery... I know that was the theme but I think it was life imitating art. She is married to one of the coen brothers.

andrew Lo

there is a podcast

And the video Courtesy Chuck Boyce H/T, Thanks.

Homo economicus: MIT's Andrew Lo on reason, emotion, and behavioral economics.

(Genius' brother BTW, but I'm sure the inferior of the two(I'm just sucking up here, and the notion of some kind of Brother Sister Competitiveness, feeds my need to pretend to know everything)) ,

I haven't listened to it, I'm actually downloading the video from my secret video source.

If there is one thing that kills me about US Media, it's that Canada and the U.K. have some great Documentaries, and Just Generic sources for in depth Information.

We just kind of have Charlie Rose, Occasional Bill Moyers, Frontline, and Nova.

Just a side note, if you haven't ever seen the "bil moyers on faith and Reason" series, you are completely missing out.
You can watch them on your computer here.

If you are tony you should start with Colin McGinn. Pema chodron is superb, the rest are great. Of course I'm fascinated with everyones relationship to "Their Unicorns"

Friday, November 7, 2008

Super Obama World

http://superobamaworld.com/

Awwwww

hank Greenberg is going broke...... has less billions than he had before.

On TV crying about how pension plans etc are going broke from AIG.

I love that there is more CNBC sympathy for Hank GreenBerg than for the middle class.... It's very Sweet.

I don't give a shit

But on the political front; This Gay Rights issue, sneaking up on the political front.

This is straight out of the 1992 playbook for gay rights, where after Clinton was elected he was caught up in his first 100 days in what developed into "don't ask, Don't tell".. What a waist of the hundred days... and for some Nitwhit at CNBC... which I think was Carl... I do like carl, but the Hundred days doesn't start after the vote, it starts after inaguration.

But For the first time I heard the president-elect's words being used to try and get him caught up in the debate. I'm not getting involved in this discussion besides to point out the old playbook, and how detrimental to getting off on the right foot it was to the clinton decade.
If your shit gets voted down, you have 2 choices.

  • Get new legislation passed, and do a better job to get out your vote.(all you are doing now is trying to turn back time)
  • Challenge it Legaly.(good luck, have you seen the supreem court)
I'm not sure if I did this, but we should see some attempts by the Extreem wings of the Party to try and dictate the adjenda.
so far I've seen:
  • The 'Rainbow' Croud on the rampage, trying to get to the front of the line.
  • And the Other "Rainbow Coalition", Trying to get to the front.
both of these issues are important, but we have soooooooo much work to do... and by we I mean sombody else. The economy is such a horror show, and though I predict that we will get sidetracked by Infighting, and extreemists trying to take charge of our political adjenda. It's not the right foot.
But we struggled with that resistance all day, and end of the day... we broke it.... Still have that Bear flag to Null out. Just to stick with my Non Hedgeing Hedging....
I SAY UPWARD BIAS FROM NOW TO NEXT MONDAY. But, I'm very cautous about that, this "Correction" didn't feel good. And we could be facing a near term "Bear Flag"... But I'd also sugjest that the sell off represented more of an Aversion stage preceding an upside break in the short term pattern.

I'm doubting it, but we could see that this whole correction could be just an "Aversion Phase" in a larger uptrend.

This would be a developing Bear Flag


this is a possibility. This just has this Grim Target

some chart stuff

There continues to be significant damage to the market and to reading it... IMO. One bad sign to day is that we need to see some leadership in banks, with WFC having the Capital raise, it throws it off as a metric, but the other signs that go with it are only half there.

Tony was talking about a Bear Flag, one of my concerns with this downtrend is the Lack of Bear Flags within it. I would have liked to have seen a downtrend followed by a Bear flag, followed by another correction. Which could be what is setting up.... that is what has me spooked.

Sorry about the bad print here/ but I don't buy the descending triangle marked with that white line.... But what I don't buy is that as a development.... What I'd suggest is that we were struggling with that Green downtrend... The trend analysis that is my number one Tool, Throws out 2 trend lines that you have to struggle with for a Good reversal, and we broke the first one after the double bottom, and now we are struggling with the second one.(Green Line)

Specifics

Childish little boy Dennis Kneal, wants specifics of the economic plan. Which is a repeat of the McCain Campaign MEME.
There is no specific plan, and even when there is it will need to be sent through the Sausage Press of our Legislature.

The Horror show of our Economy, is a bit of an overwhelming proposition.

Flag/ Ascending Triangle

Tony asked about this pattern, It's more Pennant than Flag There is a Flag here but it was yesterday, but somepeople call Pennants-flags. A standard call on a Pennant in an intermediate donwtrend, in a counter Trend rally. would be for this to break down.

My sense is that this will be a reversal(resolving up), but I'm not sure how long it will last.

Another call would be that this will go sideways through monday tuesday, spike lower and that will be the reversal.

Seems to me that the sentiment is ready to reverse for a bit. and that maybe we can struggle back up for 5 days through next monday.

50-60%

Tradewell pointed out my mistake in saying that Options expiration was a week off, which after she said it, I realized I forgot where we were in the Callender.

My rough trading model, says we have an upward bias to options expiration, and probably beyond. My charts on this pull back are just Grimm Though. In the spirit of Disambiguation which I try and stick to on my blog... I try not to Hedge, and say specificly what I think is going to happen. Of course all of that flies in the face of good trading practices that say one should talk about probabilities. My point is that I believe the greatest chance is for an upward bias through Monday after next. I'll expect a nice pull back after that, then some follow through in December, but there may just be a tremendous amount of "sort of sideways motion"... But all of that won't happen, but I will stick with a 50-60% chance of upward bias for another 6 trading days.

Fucking GM and Ford... The legacy to the middle class... I'm absolutely split about it... It's a fucking horror show, Companies that should die a horrible death, management so High on the smell of their own shit..... My hope is that somebody comes up with a good solution that gets them to pull themselves up with their own boot straps.

I continue to hear all this bullshit from Dylan Ratigan about how we need transparency... Which I agree with but it's just naive, at one point you just don't get enough transparency and you don't get to know the special spices at KFC, regardless of how important the analysts thing it is to caluclate expenses.

200K expectations

That is what I hear, seems like well.

No matter what it's a knife in the gut, but at this point as long as it's not a shotgun blast to the head, I guess it's ok...

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Market action


SO.... Overall I hate this action.. Maybe it's just emotional memory from the last moves down. But.....There is some hope that we dropped below that support line, and it seems like value was found below it.... But still this move needs a bounce that will Fail.

This feels like a retest and not just a correction.

Could be that this is just a sell the news and buy the rumor on the NFP.

but Next week is options expiration....

But to me.. this feels like a near term wall of worry. but the market action says "Be afraid"

In the Ghetto


Just felt like posting this for some reason.

no chart

Yawn!!! 800 pts in 2 days... Jesus....

Obviously they will sell the futures, but seems like we have cooked in the NFP, in the morning.

I keep trying to say that the market seems healthier, and by that I don't mean "good or Bad" I'm just saying "With Order"

GM Ford Chrysler

All I hope is that if somebody cuts them a check, that management is forced to take a huge Pay cut. I insist that the CEO takes half a mill per year. the rest of his lackies all make under 300K.

I can understand Wall street companies paying bonuses if money is made, but these guys are just golfing all day.

How if I talk about the market.

So, 38.2% retrace, No biggie... Not like with futures this is Brain surgery, but there seems to be more downside... maybe a mid day bounce then more selling maybe tomorrow. it will depend on price action, but the chart doesn't look like this is done.

There is no surprise about the NFP... I doubt anything but a 200K handle will be a surprise, but they will try and sell it.

My crystal ball is way off right now... Cause I just don't care right now, I'm staying Lean primarily and cautious, Politics and my health have my brain right now. I'm just working on being healthy, and this market just continues to be a horror show.

So... Today or yesterday it's like we are back to the emotions of october, and we should see that be on the Wain for a full month or even 2.

I'm trying to feel good about some rotation into some first recovery stocks, but it's tough... Coal and banks sold hard yesterday, so.... that was interesting, but I don't think the horror show is over for retail or tech... but maybe the price action over the next few weeks will show something.

My good mojo is off, but I'm expecting some kind of rally between now and say next Tuesday, bring us to a Nice top, then we can have a Healthy 3-5 day sell off..... I'll give this a 20% probability with my wires all crossed.

There does seem to be a little bit of bounce in the futures.. so that is good....

Maybe we get some morning selling and then a nice bounce into the close..... then some continued selling on friday morning then a nice reversal..... Seems like some good mojo going on in that mantra.

BuzzKill

So, I wrote up this rant about.... Well basically it was a "Welcome to the Machine" post for those people who apparently haven't felt included in our democracy.

You know... That new car smell lasted about 24 hours.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Meredith witney

I just saw her, You know she only does Large cap financials right?..

So she was talking about WFC at 20.... and where was it 2 quarters ago? 20...
Sounds like Pinning to me.

This gives me a chance to Opine Macro. So I'm still bearish on the large cap, I'm not saying sell them. Too many People want them, and still They need to get Bearish... still I'd like to see 50% layoffs, and even Selling and Closing the doors on parts of the business. With the Internet, and Information Tech, Decentralization of much of "Wall Street". We need to see Gang fighting in NYC before I'll be bullish on them.

Still there is a sense of "This isn't Us" to the De-Leveraging.... I'd like to see some Hopelessness on "The Street" before One could get Bullish on them.

But The regionals, who didn't participate in "The Uber Securitization Leverage process." Those will be the Winners, as we turn to the community bankers to loan us money from now on.

Republican operative

Republican,"The democrats talked about 'WE', and the republicans constantly talk about 'I'. That needs to change."

Umn...... isn't that Socialism to talk and engage the 'WE' in our country?


And..... I'm not sure if it's me, but Does Sarah Palin talk about herself in the Third Person... My confusion may be that she is unfamiliar with the concept of "Subject Noun"... Maybe that is an entirely different pathology in language "Lack of Subject in sentence structure"

Weekly world news

Alien weeps for McCain loss.

Insiders believe the Alien will beam himself this evening to McCain’s home to offer the Senator a shoulder to cry on.

Jesus hates Utah

As Punishment for not "Loving America" *smirk* and voting for the hatemonger party, As punishment Jesus Dropped a ton of snow on us last night. When will the Mormons Learn...

*smirk*

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"