Tradewell pointed out my mistake in saying that Options expiration was a week off, which after she said it, I realized I forgot where we were in the Callender.
My rough trading model, says we have an upward bias to options expiration, and probably beyond. My charts on this pull back are just Grimm Though. In the spirit of Disambiguation which I try and stick to on my blog... I try not to Hedge, and say specificly what I think is going to happen. Of course all of that flies in the face of good trading practices that say one should talk about probabilities. My point is that I believe the greatest chance is for an upward bias through Monday after next. I'll expect a nice pull back after that, then some follow through in December, but there may just be a tremendous amount of "sort of sideways motion"... But all of that won't happen, but I will stick with a 50-60% chance of upward bias for another 6 trading days.
Fucking GM and Ford... The legacy to the middle class... I'm absolutely split about it... It's a fucking horror show, Companies that should die a horrible death, management so High on the smell of their own shit..... My hope is that somebody comes up with a good solution that gets them to pull themselves up with their own boot straps.
I continue to hear all this bullshit from Dylan Ratigan about how we need transparency... Which I agree with but it's just naive, at one point you just don't get enough transparency and you don't get to know the special spices at KFC, regardless of how important the analysts thing it is to caluclate expenses.
Friday, November 7, 2008
50-60%
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9 comments:
GM and Ford going bankrupt is baked into the broader indices. Here in west Michigan, all the parts makers have closed shop or cut back to skeleton staffs. We've been in a depression for 18 months, percent of people on Medicaid has gone up astronomically.
Off topic:
Flag formation on SPY. Which does it hit first: 91.60 or 93.20? Up or down?
This should be a short term reversal... Not sure if it will be a week or a couple days.
Management has run ford and GM into the ground, Letting them fail has the appeal of less moral hazard, and Maybe someone will build a more inovative car that I'd be interested in owning. Of course then I think of all the people with actual Retirement, and the message it would send to the american workforce that, we are all slaves to the uberClass. and Retirement is just a Dream
I appreciate the sentiment for the working class, but UAW has no real appeal to most second tier blue collar workers here. It is recognized by many that the generous benefits given to semi-skilled workers in Detroit have ruined the economy of the entire state. Workers making half the pay without lifetime health care in a Kalamazoo parts plant have little sympathy when auto assemblers across the state get laid off.
For many, the cravennous and greed has led to the downfall of an entire industry-- we'd have been better off supplying Toyota in Kentucky.
Not going to conjecture a number on the SPY?
You have to recognize the laws of supply and demand, there will still be demand for cars, so GM, Chrysler, and Ford's loss will be sombody's gain... I'm interested in seeing some chinese car MFG come and kick everyone's ass. Not sure if they will build enough cup holders for us tubby fuckers.
With Lean MFG, and expensive shipping, Building cars in the USA is not too much of a disadvantage. It's a void in the economy and somebody will jump in, Of course this being yet another cross to bare in the economy isn't any fun.
I'll suggest we will see 96 on the spy
Valid points and the demand will be pent up after car sales stall this year and next.
My money would be on Toyota, Honda and maybe Hyundai since they already have the infrastructure and their labor costs are managed. Toyota and Honda can easily expand their US plants when/if GM and Ford are shuttered. even with fed money to prop them up, their sales will continue to dwindle for other reasons.
Chrysler was bailed out in the 70's by Gerry Ford (from MI, BTW) and to this day I don't see how that helped the economy in the long run. We got the K-car!! It nearly bankrupted Mercedes and it's still a shitty car company and always will be. No moral hazard.
It's interesting that there is a moral hazard with the Car guys like there is with the banks.
and that they suffer the same, Incompetence.
I keep hoping some counter argument to the Kudlow Economic Theme will develop.
You know some kind of Henry ford Esq(that damn socialist) New Deal Plan.
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