Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Saturday, August 29, 2009

The Plot Thickens!!

Who Would do such a thing! I mean... if you ignore march through august, and Expiration week.. he was right 70% of the time....


and if Assholes were Peaches... bla bla bla!!!!!

Maybe someone got mad because he was stealing charts!... I hear that is a no no....

Never did mind about the little things!

Cobra Rocks...
he is like Stallone!!

Monday, August 24, 2009

Would it have been helpfull

If on friday I had posted that the Wedge resolved today... as well as the Pennant I had talked about for the past 2 weeks... Also Pointed out that target with the Arrow... I guess this still could just be a Left Shoulder. of a reversal....


but Maybe remembering that the friday/monday of expiration has a tendancy to act as a pivot in the market.

Also all the Sentiment indicatoras I had...

Sunday, August 23, 2009

I thought about being bullish the other day

Then I saw oil was at $75

Friday, August 21, 2009

Fantastic

Just want to say how Psyched I am about not blogging the setups. Or waisting my time with sentiment.


Good stuff, gives me much more time.

Big Dave Zabrisky out at the Time Trials tonight!!! World Class Cycling!


Damn!

I was going to give a sentiment indicator....


but DAMN!!! you don't want them!

Oh well... 1-2-3-4-5..... A-B-C

Sorry More Cycling news!

Two of my "Buddies" I say this loosly.. More like decent guys who like to regularly kick my ass and make fun of me on my bike. Well, Two of what I'll call "Friends" for the sake of simplicity. Put an ass Beating on Nice Guy but Suspended for doping Tour De France Non Winner, Floyd Landis.


Which is Awesome and Tragic all at the same time....... Which as a Dichotomy and a Truly american Tail is Awesome.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

I know I know

Sure we have our little EWT... But remember the Wedge.... I wonder where the target was

1-2-3-4-5.... A-B-C

Oooopppp

I was going to give some sentiment.... But I won't...


and it seems like we have our little 1-2-3-4-5.... A-B-C's

so that should be obvious!

Glad to see everything under control!

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Bike Racing for me!!!

Big Bike race this week... I though I'd put some work in... and probably still will but. It's going to be mostly bikes and bike racing for me this week.


Good Luck!

Birtha

Nice! she figured out how to read Futures... It's only been a few months.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Stock Twits

Well this is like 2 weeks of watching it.


I made fun of somebody, for not paying attention to the market... because it seemed like they spent all their time on Stock Twits.

it seems like it's just another isolated bubble, mostly of Howard and his "Clic" of Drudes. It's interesting for sentiment, but I'm starting to see a sort of Median Deviation...

IE... sentiment on stock twits may not represent proper sentiment. Though there are Flashes of "Proper Sentiment"

165 million


lower than my estimate. still in the middle, but not a great sign.

volume is super weak

so far.... even CNBC knows about the 15:30 bagholders/greater fools

Looks like

Looks like we are on track for a 170million share day..


which is "In the middle"... but it depends on the closing shares.

130 million to the last hour 20-60 million in the last hour.

Grasso Just declared

You just buy the dips!! It's that easy.

bob Pisani is a Knob


Never know but... seemed to me like the bears were waiting for some kind of rebound... cause they arn't fools....


Sentiment

they keep talking about buying the dip... I'm not sure that is sentiment for a good bounce.

In that mood

I'm in that foul, what a bunch of dipshits mode.... Some of the crap I hear. Some dumb ass was like "well it's not like Lehman is going to fail, so we should be above 11K."


I just roll my eyes....

Healthcare

This Healthcare debate is getting me...


the only political downside is that Large numbers of people are concerned about the deficit. Other than that there is massive support for effective dismantaling of the entire insurance industry.

Why? Cause it doesn't Work!

they want to sell you a product that they don't want to deliver. Classic Snake Oil Salesman.

But fortunatly Snake oil sells well, and they can Grease the pockets of Congress... Thank God for Democracy!!! this is certainly the "Freedom" the Deatheaters want!

but the market.... so I was thinking rally till 11 then sell off, but I'm not sure how much short covering we will get this morning. Probably will depend on how much buying comes in..

the longs need targets to try and buy it.

Monday, August 17, 2009

The Big Problem with washington

US banknotes show cocaine traces

The largest study of banknotes has found that 95% of dollar bills in Washington DC bear traces of the illegal drug cocaine.

Besides Washington, other big US cities such as Baltimore, Boston and Detroit had the highest average cocaine levels on their dollar bills.

In the US the cleanest bills were collected from Salt Lake City, home of the religious group, the Mormons.

But little do they know we are number one in Perscription drug abuse.

"oh I can't take my 14 kids Doc.... give me something"

I know you are dying to see them.

Old model


New Model

some EWT for tony

it's infamous that if I post shit like this it has no fucking chance...

well

Today is a good day for me to go out and ride my bike

LOL

I didn't realize that StockTwits was one of Howard Lindzon's little Shell Games...


how did Wallstrip turn out for CBS? is it still Running?

have to respect a guy who knows hot to create Zero Market delta activities, and profit off of them.

Sweet Shell Games.

EWT

Just do this for Tony....

of the downtrend we had wave 1 and 2

Now we are in Wave 3.

OF Wave 3, wave 1 this morning, now wave 2.

Of Wave 3, Of Wave 2.. 1-2- Now 3...

soon we can look at rate of decline.

the model



the above is the old model.... and because of the way it's made... it's likely this one will be wrong.

So this is the new one, that over time should be more correct once it gets a few more data points.

the bad part is

I looked at alpha trends and he roughly has the same thing...


I can give you a better reason that Fib for the 96 level though.

Targets

Short therm there is a 98.30 level. but I think 96 or a trap thereof... is cooked in.

Down 20

I was going to write this morning that, all the Knobs had declared that "this looks like a top"... that would be "Except the chart Thief"


It was creeping me out.

but this morning we have down 20 -3.5 fare value.

Realize vix at 25... It's extreme.

side not Rachel Maddow was good at taking on Dick "Blood of Tyrants" Armey. Again I don't understand why Meet the Press has him on, He isn't elected, and doesn't represent anyone but the people who pay his bills, or should I say "Grease his pockets"

Saturday, August 15, 2009

Tyrannis

Apparently Rachel Maddow is going to be on meet the press with Dick Armey.

I have money for the legal defense fund if she stabs him in the chest and says

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants..... sic semper tyrannis!"

The models

Here is the old model. Like I said the 8/11 data is missing. It's effect would be a larger downward bias.

The New Model!!!
not that it is a different formula. but this one starts last friday. Same math only these 5 datapoints(ok 4 cause it's missing 8/11 Too.)
So, above is the data the below is the forecast.
I wouldn't get all "Wet" about the 8/21 data. There will be a tendency to Accelerate, then decelerate until the model gets 3 days of decelerating data points it's libel to be fucked up.



the model

If you don't realize there is a hole in the data.... but I don't control the database so I can't correct it... but if you notice the up bars are smaller and the down bars are getting larger.


Oh... great movie... Ninjas cheerleaders and strippers....

best Joke of the day

.... what a bunch of un-actualized morons most of you are... if you don't realize I'm happy to admit my mistakes, and even admit them to myself...


It's the self delusion that is a mistake.

I caught someone talking about a project a few weeks ago.

"This needs to be changed and this needs to be changed...."

I'm like ... ok...so change it....

"Well bla bla bla....."

"Are you asking for help? cause if you are.... how about this and this."

"Well those things help with these 4 clients"

" Well great... as long as those 4 clients are keeping the doors open."

"well not really."

"So you have something shitty for the 4 clients not keeping the doors open."

Then this week... I get a call from a friend

"I'm not sure if I should get into the market at this point!"

"Ya, I don't think so."

"Well I just figure I've been too conservative."

"Well hindsight is easy... and that is how "Everybody" feels at this point. and that is what sucks them into the move that kills them."

"Well I have been 'buying the dips' since November."

"Well you should be up huge at this point... what are you worried about..."

"well but I could be doing better...."

"It seems good enough... but if only you had a time machine.. and could go back and trade perfectly... Like the difference between what you are saying and the reality."

see they are full of shit, and now they are saying they did exactly what the tv is saying to do.....

You fucking people....

but of course now people .... if we get the pullback... will "Buy the dip" at every level all the way down.

Friday, August 14, 2009

the good news is

that the Fast money lunch traders were mixed in their recomendations...


as opposed to when they are all bearish that guarantees a bounce.

forward thinking


Tony was just talking targets.... Asuming we don't go Pennant


but 92 is a 10% correction... We have the uptrend line

and What about a nice Beartrap below 870......

always the chance.....


of a pennant forming on the spy.

the story of the day is the NON INFLATION.... see that was the game... inflation made the market go up and dollar go down... but look at the green bar on the UUP

all kinds of stops getting Clobbered

and tony will be un-Fucking Bearable..

there is that first uptrend

The red one there is.... Unseen... and I think it won't act as a trap... but this yellow one... Watch out... but as I type it's catching a bounce.

Jebus

So I just opend up my web page and sudddenly Upside was barking at me...


Ok not barking but hemming and hawing.

Morning Charts

Keep that Raindance going.... Above we look at swng structure on a 130 minute bar charts... since I've taken to telling people how to trade... I gave some upside targets that one may be able to trade. I just don't want to lessen the Ascending look of this. and being agressive if we can get a nice downbar... but a downbar and not a fucking Bear trap.here is the minute view... I've drawn some ascending support lines, that can set up some nice traps. but do give points to Keep an eye on.. Also... that dollar reversal would be "The Money" or an indicator of an Impending "Money move" for the bears.


Some things to look for


Ugh.... Friday....

in a sentiment way... there is a chance that the longs won't want too stay in through the weekend.

Tony has called for the downtrend day..... which.... well speaks for itself... Hey sorry Tony, if we can't flip each other shit.... why would we do any of this... Of course tony did call the 666 bottom... but then didn't believe it.
If the dollar eruo can go 1.4250 and lower..... Good news for my bearish thesis. I will now just for fun say "Constant bearish thesis"

Can't say I'm inconsistant.

So... Divergences in:
NYSE advancing isues
Nasdaq advancing
% above 40dayMA(this is sketchy)
Advance decline

Non Divergences

%stocks above 200dma (which isn't a good indicator)

Honestly some of the unmentioned breadth indicators are showing non confirmation highs but non divergences.... so there is some neutral there.

like the 13 week high low

Trader feed has seen the weakenss, and said so.... but the 20 day high I have seems to be different indicator than the one he has NYSE, NASDAQ, and ASE stocks so that is interesting...

The thing that does seem to be looking is fading the "Everybody" and I was reading that everybody was calling a pullback.... then I just watched The first 10 min of fastmoney and they are Mixed to bullish...

I guess one more move up would make them all bullish... Or a move down all bearish....

duno... but WTF.....

If you are looking at Elliot wave structure we still have a nice wave 1 and a wave 3.. sort of a wave 4... and could be working on 5... the 100.4 level could mean a break in this structure.... or that could just mean a broader wave 4 move..... or a clearer cup and handle.

so if I put the Market punters up against the fast money folk you have to give it to the fast money folk. A move to 100.40 or even a pause on friday would give a good chance to a bearish move. I can get a 102.40 target or just short of 103...

in a way that range would be a low risk short entry point... and I guess asuming you arn't already short it would be a good entry to do so........

Either that or I'm hoping my realistic optimisum will be a Counter-indicator...

what the bears need is a pause or a downbar before a new intraday high....

Thursday, August 13, 2009

This has been going around the cycling community




It's both Ridiculous and very true..

Fast money traders

Looks like it would have worked again to have faded the fast money traders...

the twitterati

They went short... then it bounced.... I'm too obsessed with them....


it's that buy up into the 15:00

I hate to say it.. but the fast money kids may all be right...... we may sell off into the close...

it's certainly a third standard deviation event...

they are all playing breakouts

I was just trying to see what was up on twitter....

Could be the auction

little flight to safety... of couse as I type the market is shoting to the moon cause they love the a- from santelli.....

so...

from my sentiment read.... they are getting jerked around and frustrated... which would be how I'd feel if I were playing this. It's undetermined but seems like we "MAY" be developing some distribution patterns some invert cup and handle... etc... I'll be curious if we have a 3rd failed high. here.

OK..... SWINGS!!!!

We had a nice Swing down. I said it I talked about it I traded it.... I said the REAL RESTANCE WAS 99.50. At that Point I knew I had to Cover Most my trades and WAIT.

Wed I had a nice trade, it worked for a while then Blew up... Oh well.
So we have a second swing an Upswing... Is it going higher.. I doubt it... but does that matter NO. I know I don't Know... But today we have another trade... a Trade of last Resort on this swing. We have seen the 101 level for Days.

I am Curious if we will get a BULL trap Above it... But what do I do.... I wait.. I want to see that second swing FAIL.... it has yet to do that. We have yet do it, and we have jerked around since the Fed. But my trade is to look for either a New high or to look for a Failure of that swing.

If we could trade 100.50... later in the day... there is a chance that we have a Failure, and a Failure of this Test of top.

I'VE said it Repeatidly... the most DANGEROUS PLACES TO PLAY ARE AROUND THESE STUPID FUCKING HORIZONTAL SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVELS...

ALL THE FUCKING PUNTERS ARE PLAYING BREAKOUTS AND BREAKDOWNS....

THE MONEY IS PLAYING BETWEEN THEM.

If we have a failure here, we move back to 99.50... and then bounce AGAIN...

but there is not advantage to playing here... Maybe you could play upside with a break of 101.60 with a stop of 101.

or short with a move below 101 with a stop at 101.40 or maybe 101.30 or so....

this is not going to be easy... and being cautious is going to win the game.

Dollar


Looking for that Volume reversal through 23.40..
just keep an eye out.

Land Shark!!!

do we hear the shark...

here is the 5dma model.




If you don't realize the monday and tuseday moves were extreem by the model. SO the correction yesterday moved the actual back to the Model....


Better Living through math.

LOL

So.. the reason we are so excited is because germany and france posted a


.3+ GDP..... LOL

Some thoughts

I was just meditating on things.... which is aking to talking with the voices in my head...


"What the hell is going on?"
"I don't know"
"Well you better figure it out."
"you don't get to talk to me like that!"
"I don't! Fuck you."
"wait a minute.. you do have a Plan!"

....

"sorry I was distracted... What did you say?"

Ok, enough fun....

I told somebody that what seems to be working is that, we have to look for kudlow to be at a 12 on the volume Knob. Looking like he wants to jump Melissa Francis.

Then you can sell it till the fast money 5 are bearish... wait or is it the fast money 15... Point is even if you get a 4-5 bearish... it's no longer the easy trade...

This is kind of my point today, we should get kudlow at 12.... Joe Kiernan is plenty psyched.... Seems like we again have Extreem positive sentiment.

Morning

Retest of top huh!!!


Good news, Joe is all psyched it's all Green shoots again.

The Knobbers will come in, cover and go long....

and we can get get a nice intraday reversal, with low risk to me to watch it play out all afternoon.

I expect a good hour of buying if not the full sell at 11 move.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Punt!

I'm not saying Punt... I'll stick with my thesis.... But I just want to point out the obvious that 250 Million shares is nothing to Sniff at as an upbar.. and should make Us Cautious...


but with 15million shares of punters blowing in and out 4 times.... it could explain it...

but I just want to be Realistic.

Cognative what

Melissa Cleft pallet of CNBC said... After the fomc release we sold off then reversed to end up higher.... Umn... Seen an actual chart or do you just talk out of your ass...


Just pointing out sentiment, and what "They" want to believe. So... was reading Twitter... Sell.... long.... sell...

so.... seems to me like what is going on is the daytraders just trying to play momentum..and Creating it...

this is the crazy thing

jesus



Havn't seen it go this crazy for this long and nothing seems .... anything but crazy..

Seems like

this "Feels Like" the day traders are getting stopped out one by one.

you have to wonder

Famous last words


that somebody was sitting around saying "if the FOMC.... I will...."

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"