The models

Here is the old model. Like I said the 8/11 data is missing. It's effect would be a larger downward bias.

The New Model!!!

not that it is a different formula. but this one starts last friday. Same math only these 5 datapoints(ok 4 cause it's missing 8/11 Too.)

So, above is the data the below is the forecast.

I wouldn't get all "Wet" about the 8/21 data. There will be a tendency to Accelerate, then decelerate until the model gets 3 days of decelerating data points it's libel to be fucked up.