Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, July 31, 2008

What the hell are you people doing to my market!!

You killed Banks, materilas, oil... On a 2 dollar sell off BTW.

GDP was grim, and employment......
and still an attempt to rally....

And the Fed's Scarecrow(greenspan) "I realy fucked stuff up.... sorry everyone... Oh... it's not my fault....)

This is looking like consolidation.

long week

2 days left in the week,....

Overall, I think my current bets are out of control.... and I have little time to deal with it all..

Let's just hope oil comes back and breaks that 120 level.

assuming we don't want economic Armageddon.

Funny thing in my local paper.....

"Surprise You Home is worth 30K less, so your taxes on it go down.
Surprise, the land your home is on, is worth more by 40K, so your taxes go up."

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

safe

I have some "short financial searches..." so all is good.

After resting, after we called things off today.... I started some research... and I'm trying to get this project back on the "Rails".

so... besides set stops... (I stopped out of DUG Today), and try and be defensive.... My time is limited.... This "Work Vacation project" is going to cost me... Should have gone to Bermuda...

XLE Valuations look great.

We were starting to get some fear on this.... and we started with "valuations look good" for the past week... This looks like it's going to go sideways or a Bear flag for a few days while earnings come out.... Look for misses being punnished in Oil stocks as they report... hard to miss but...
Maybe they will dome top as they report....
But Sideways I believe before the next scary leg down....
Or I'm wrong

Rally

Well, not the market... but me a little.

Sentiment... I have some Positive sentiment on the banks today....

and .... UGH!!! Cramer is calling bottom......

Investing for Deaf People

Damn I hate this show.

Bla Bla Bla...

... Goldman "we still see $150 oil"....So.... 'Corden to the astrology... this goes to 131 at least.

Really.....

Yippie!!!!!

This schedule is killing me....

I'm trying to come up with something to say...

Hopefully I'll look at some wave counts....

It looks poised to break out hard... I also think that once we set an intraday low... Tons of people reset their stops...(smartly) to get out ahead of the crowed..

This market could take a rocket shot through say monday or tuesday....

Sort of a "It's over!!!!!" Rally and People flooding in after the weekend.... Only to get Crushed, in a rough reversal next week...(not that we will get lower... but just we will end up in sort of a sideways... disappointment trade.

I wonder what is going on at Ibank coin....

(I'll be good)

Sorry

Long week.... I fell asleep in my chair...

Yippeee up 187

With oil up $5.

You know, +/- that looks like someone kicked off a short covering rally

... Sorry... I'm really beat...

I would thank the Day traders for that rally..... I think they tried to sell it, and it blew up in their face.

Look at that XLE.....

I have returned

Temperaraly....

I'll talk about why i'm away from work later.... You know me.... I share every pathetic thought, and whine..

OIL!!! Standard breaking of a significant resistance, like the "Cyclical trend line in oil" in the 120 range......

well You have to test it, bounce on a weekly time frame, then come back and test it again... then retest and break it on a daily time frame... It may take the eia report next week.... but Oil seems doomed.... I heard the nonsense today about oil..... Well it's summer and it's easy to give up the car... but come fall.... Well then....

Realize it's probably more Optional trips that are disappearing, and more "I'm going to the Grocery store Once this week" not 5 times. "We are giving up having 2 cars." Just have the One, and make due.....

remember all the carpooling in the 70's and 80's.......

Seems like

The Teresa lo podcast sugjested a forming pendant formation, maybe a nice high here for the next few days and a pendant formation... sort of working itself out for the next..... While... Always hard to disagree...

Having a hard time this morning doing anything but... Getting out of here and going back to work..

Not sure I have any extra thoughts..

sorry

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

quick sentiment

I'm 2 x 1 negative, To be honest.. it's more like 5 to 1 negative.. but I have a lot of neutral sentiment.

Tired

Sorry I can't blog much more... It's past my bed time... and hopefully I'll have some mojo in the morning...

Nice Rally.... Umn.... I didn't get all my trades triggered.. I have no idea how I'm going to trade them...

Seems like a morning thing.

For such a tough recession... How Umn... Why can't We keep people doing grunt work (18-22 year olds)... for longer than 1 day... we have gone through 7 of them, so far....

and I'm only a little mean.... I mean.. I can't let these Gen-Y Folk, spend the entire day texting on their phones and sleeping in the shade.

But Even at my pay rate, I can do the work of 6 of them..... so.... The cost justification, kind of Eliminates their usefulness, or lack thereof.

Potatochip Recession

As I was smirking all day, about my smug PotatoChip Recession talk....

I realized.... Someone should actually Plot the decline of the chip in a recession, and it could provide a very useful Metric to measure the severity of the recession... I imaging it wouldn't be a Leading indicator.

I wonder if there is a snack food that would be a leading indicator...

I'd be curious if someone has already done the research...
Also, It would probably be required to go to the library for this kind of research....

but maybe I could BS my way into the data from the companies.

This may be one of those things that I think is a good idea, then realize is a huge waist of my time....

Maybe I can submit my research and get it published... and become an Honorary Psudo Scientist... Oh, sorry Social Scientist...

I also wonder if there is a "Comfort food" Factor in potatochips, that would skew the data..

Like a big boy

I've decided not to gloat..... neither at Ibank coin or

at "the big Picture"..

I'll point out that Ibank coin has capitulated.....

The Fusion IQ.... Has NOT.

#3

I am the number 3 search for Black helicopter crowd....

Sweeeeetttt!!!!!!

and of courese #1 for ID 10 T wave theory

Remember

The best bottoms...... are "Widely disbelieved"

One more thing

Famous last words.

But... some of the Technisions, are talking about the VIX at 40....

I mentioned this in the last 3 declines.... and how I doubted a "Segnificant low" because of it... and was wrong every time.

when you look at the 2000 declines, intermediate lows were made at 45 VIX..... That hasn't happened this time, the intermediate lows this time are being made in the 30's.... The Thesis of VIX 40 is wrong.....

many vix obsessed have remarked at the lack of Vix.... and one can say this as a "Lack of getting there".... Or that the metric has changed... OR as they say "jumped the shark"

Ok I have to have breakfast... and move some orders around.

I just don't see Worse sentiment than "every bank is going to Fail."

Some asshole

There is some guy on saying "We are only half way there, retail investors need to get comfortable being short." we are only half way there.

Right... Citigroup at 7? JPM at 15? GS at 80? LEH at 7? WM at 1.50? KEY?5 BAC at 15? MER 12?
The DOW at 7k? SPX at 900......

OR... is that guy FULL OF SHIT, Talking his book.... and going to lose his shirt.

SO.... these guys talk about the Lack of transparency..... it just shows the ignorance... Problem is that Nobody knows the value of Credit, in a declining economy...... It just is what ever the losses are this quarter.... you can model it out all you want.... but there are way to many variables.

AND BTW SOCIAL SCIENTISTS(Economists) have no idea how to MODEL. I mean shit.. they can't even calculate inflation.

AGAIN.... I'm offended constantly by the SHEAR IGNORANCE OF Economists... as they DELUDE THEMSELVES INTO thinking they know anything about science.... THE LAST STEPT IN Scientific method is to Draw a Conclusion....
EVERY TIME THEY SAY "on one hand... and on the other", it offends the Great Minds of Western Thought.

The other interesting thing, is how People don't factor in how Fluid and dynamic Markets are.... They are so resilient... and like I pointed out, the other day... all most of America needs to do to Pay the morgage is stop eating potato chips and fudrukers... and there you go.. $10 a day for 30 days, is $300 tward a morgage. Cut you driving in half... there is another $300.

AND MER droping those CDO's at distressed prices.... How is that for a sign of capitulation in financials.....

hmm...

Now I have to remember what I was going to post about....

OIL....

I think for the next 6 trading days... the "Rally"... Will... as Kudlow says(I know we hate Kudlow, But I've said it for months)... the rally depends on oil...

OIL MUST BREAK THE CYCLICAL TREND. which is at the 120 level.

We have spent 5 or so days at the 123 level.... and this is flirting with the cyclical trend. I Today is EIA data.. as is next week... I expect that if we break that level it will be TODAY or next tuesday...

The market could just muddle from now till then...

Or maybe there is a surprise in the employment data... which we won't believe.

Regional Bank thesis

I've gone on for months about my Regional Bank Thesis, That it is the Regional Banks that will win, in the finance Sector, and not the Shit Banks( Money center, Ibanks).

I have what is a start of a Technical confirmation of my Thesis. as the XLF has Retraced 50% and the KRE has retraced 38%.

Hi

... I had a very long day, arguing with .... It was nice to not watch the ticker all day... And for "The Great Depresion: Take Two." It's strange how much Work Is going on out there. And that I was called in to do some consulting.. that will probably go on for a few weeks.

I can tell I'll have my service on the phone a bunch. Not sure how they will react "Does it look like a Wave 2 in an uptrend"

Alright I need to get back to bed, so I can lick my wounds for a few more hours before I have to go yell at people.

Don't kid yourself.. The market can't "Cook in" a Global depression, in 1 quarter. and at one point there is no more money to "go short".

This is a long drawn out horrible process...... Just go with it... And don't kid yourself.... I don't get what is wrong with people that they think that this can be "Finished"..

Life is a Journey... not a Goal, not a mountaintop..... Once you get to a Peak... you realize, just how many more peaks there are... Just" live"....

That being said:
Mostly... I like this wave.... It has a little more to play out... MAYBE... MAYBE a little wave up, little wave down... Then we look for a turn... Little wave up, little wave down... THEN The start of the Break out.... I don't get some of you people...

your SAFE ENTRY long, is a Move up... Followed By a Pullback, Then you look for the move to turn back up..... and you buy... I've provided an arrow to show what that looks like
I have MACD divergences... accumulation... The technicians will be all over this saying... this is a Failed sell off... the volume sucked.....

Maybe we wait till friday with that BIG SURPRISE BAD JOB NUMBER......

Monday, July 28, 2008

I'm going to set up some orders

In case we "Capitulate tomorrow"... I read how gartman said that a week ago last tuesday, was the most watched capitulation he had seen..... I don't know.. it snuck by quite a few people...Including me.. till Wed...

but Shhhhhh tomorrow is the big secret.....

Or...Pstttttttttt... Maybe the employment numbers will be bad.... Shhhh don't tell anyonehttp://icanhascheezburger.files.wordpress.com/2007/05/secret_r.jpg

What is up with MER

Is Pimco not trading with them again?

Hey!!!!!

I thought you guys were going to sell stuff today? I guess everyone is waiting till the Naked shorts can sell the financials again...... Then we will show the market!!!

Futures

As I get ready to take of to sort out this new project.... and I check the futures...

HOW IN THE HELL are the Futures, Fair value Up 40?

have a good week... I'll be back later in the afternnoon(post market)...Hopefully I can figure out what happened

Sunday, July 27, 2008

some weekend sentiment.

Over the weekend We have swung out of neutral, and into bearish sentiment. Mostly charictorized by Repeated "restatements" of the old Bear Thesis.... Only with additional energy.

I've mentioned before that we have the new bear thesis of the "Global Worldwide Depression", that has started to emerge.
http://www.itulip.com/images/DepressionFoodLine30.gif

that should be a fun one..... Probably the "Xmas is Canceled" will come first.

I have to say, I was out on the "Bread Lines" AKA Grocery store.... and it's grim out there, The pan handlers and Hobo's are rolling around in those electric chairs, with their baskets... complaining about how expensive it is to eat All you can eat Shrimp at Fudruckers, and how tragic it is to have to cut down on bottled water... And drink... Straight from the tap....

One remarket. "Things are so bad, I may have to cut back on potato chips."

umn....

Why on a nice sunday....

I found some new books on Technical analysis.... that I can't help but go through.

http://www.scribd.com

so the big picture. Pointed out this resource.....

There are an impressive number of books on TA, and Finance, in there.

Some Late night Monkey, typwriter banging.

I'm excited about my pretend vacation. Let you crazy fuckers self destruct, without me to watch. I said self destruct.... It's you who will injure yourself.

Had some discussions with The great Ducati, BTW ducati was a Bear before half of us even smelled this coming. Like myself, or I like him, Well Like Gartman, and Kass, Starting to get bullish. As opposed to the Dow 6000, Black Helicopter Crowd.

The Discussion was "Where is the Value."... I ran my Regionals... Problem is, they have had a great run, and don't quite represent the "Great Value" they did 2 weeks ago. I also suggested that there could be a great Higher low, on a monthly chart... coming later in the year.

He suggested REITs. There has to be a point where some of the homies are a good play... But I also think the banks are about to take the homebuilders to the woodshed. If one theorizes about major bank failure, one has to theorize about a near clearing of the decks with Homies.

I'll grant some value with Energy... Problem is that is such a crowded trade.... and it still needs some Pain.

The entire Street is Short Everything, and Long Energy.... Net short has to get to be crowded at one point.

I still believe that the SPY has 132 in it ... Just in a "Back and Fill" motion...

But again, as you Crazy fuckers want to self destruct....And Bears in Full ON MANIA!!! It makes me think we are much closer to the end, than even I think!!!!

Contrary indicator

I eat healthy foods mostly, and some stuff I can only get at the local healthfood/bulkfood storage place...

So, many shelves are empty.

I ask the owner, " Wow, I've never seen the shelves so empty."

Owner," Yep, people are freaked out.(and I swear he rolled his eyes)"

Me, "any idea when we will get my honey back in."

"ya, it will probably take a few weeks."

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Good stuff

Market has gone ape shit, Everyone is confused. angry, afraid... Bearish, bullish.

"Bust out the Tinfoil hats..... we are going to crash!!!!."

Again I said the best and most bullish thing for the market would be a Good retest of 10K, and a nice Capitulation....(but I can't be that optimistic.)

I can't remember when we have had this much emotion in the market.

I think it's awesome....

Fun week coming to us, and I'm going to miss it.

YOU ALL REALIZE THAT A WEEK AGO, WE WERE CONVINCED, THAT EVERY BANK WAS GOING TO FAIL AND THAT FANNY AND FREDDY WERE GOING TO FOLD.

This was the most irrational thing I've ever heard....

Market hangover

In my less fatigued moments........ I think the highest probability is that we go higher.
Mean Reversion... It's higher. There are always possibilities... but If the last slide didn't scare people out.. this silly stuff won't do it. The market needs more longs to put mother market's fear into.

http://imagecache2.allposters.com/images/pic/POPMAG/RM12221~Hangover-Shelter-Posters.jpg

I'm going to get some personal time in.....

I wish I could draw the charts.

or wish I would draw them... I was trying to make th case for a Bull flag, in a counter trend.
then I realized I had to make the case for a Bear flag in the trend.

But.... There is no greater truth than that we are making a lower high... which has yet to be confirmed by a higher high...

Maybe I'll throw out a little different model I have of a sort of domed top formation....

Friday, July 25, 2008

Bear Mania on Kudlow

I just ran through the secotors

Everything up today, is in a CLEAR downtrend.
or "Valuations look good"

Or Parabolic, and about to break down, or breaking down.

consumer staples.... may be ok.

But all of it could easily turn and go up for a few weeks.

Or break down severely

oh

Have a great weekend everyone.

Charts

So...... I can't let you in on what I see... Cause it is just a perfect setup to go both ways..

I can see both charts setup perfectly.

But the market is frustrated and confused.... (could be me)

It's not going to care about lower oil, it's not going to care about anything... It wants to go down... and... there is too much short interest....

I would have suggested that we need bear capitulation. to get some downside...

Art Cashin is looking for a Tuesday washout... just like every Tuesday washout he has predicted that has never happened... Except several weeks later.

If you want to hear my thesis.... Gold(inflation) is Bullish to the market, Dollar(economics) is bullish for the market, Oil is Bullish for the market(Cheep energy), There are bailouts for everything right now.

No clear leadership in the market. Today tech worked, and coal healthcare. Yesterday it was noncyclcals. This market is a knotted ball of twine, that can't get out of it's own way.

And with all this... can we get a rally going? Quite Possibly

The best thing about this market

is how bad it is.....

market full of hate

If I say "it's different this time".... and it's time for a 1987 event.... and Armageddon is here..... and buy gold now.... and and..... here is the falling "butter knife"

will it hasten the process?

but drip drip drip....

MAYBE Tuesday after next........ but don't get your hopes up.

You know it won't work.... It's good news, seems like the market is like getting beaten with a Whiffle Bat.

How long can we take it?

Oh... and health care was working today.... Jump right in.... *rolls eyes*

Thank god I'm taking a couple weeks off.. or working for a few weeks...

I just went through sentiment.....

Guess what... Neither bullish nor bearish.....
Just 6 "art cashin"...
Not a single bearish search.....
not a single bullish search.....

(this start to smell like impending capitulation?)

Can we posibly hope

for a good wash out....

Hey... Fundies are good for "Coal"

and for energy.....

You know we won't get it...... "Drip Drip Drip"

does it feel like we are in discouragement with the financials?

Crumbs...

who wants to play this game..

earned every nickle of that

running stops.. on this

Like a fool

Instead of taking profits, again I'm riding it out....... Umn..... This has some smell of accumulation.

Lets lose some money


see if the market just set a bear trap....... maybe get a nice volatile short covering rally here on a friday

Run... But wait...


this is just a yawner of a sell off....

lets see it.... Com'on break down...


dI just think you are all out of Bears........ I'm sorry.... I want to see it in the chart....

but.....

fanny and freddy on credit watch

can you make this shit up?

Their credit is good with the US Government.... WTF

why is this working


Is it because we are all costanza's now?
Oil traders not wanting to go short into the weekend... and yet... why go long? Isn't' there more risk?
Stops are set.....I just break even now..

well

lets lose some money... I have some quick exits... but risk reward here feels good... for a small rally

I just heard run on bank on cnbc


that almost has to be bullish.

I would like it to prove it.....

there is the test


If we can break that... I could get short term optimistic.... we could see a nice short covering rally

trend line test

this retest should fail..... but

besides my costanza thesis

this is a fairly obvious descending triangle.

I'd love to see it break the other way....

we havn't cliff jumped

I've gone back to aggressive day trading....
this looks toppy

there is the possiblity of the costanza trade

a lot of data next week

exits

I've set some exits

Pendants in a downtrend are bad if you are bullish...

But are we in a downtrend... or a countertrend... or....

I've set my exits....

I can come back in if I have to.....maybe this has topped out?????

If I talk nice ?


will you deliver... What I don't want to see is sideways

My GOD!!!!

Might this be the Dreaded 12 sigma quadruple top?

the dreaded tripple top

I'm playing here... what comes after the tripple top is the quadruple.... followed by...

show me the money


when in doubt... Platitudes

spy


I don't like that domed top... but that is a 5 wave correction off the back side

com'on tick value


show me the reversal

alright

no more new lows....

broader drops in housing prices

there is a thesis that has to do with worrys about loss of home prices in places like texas.....
Problem is.... with the credit crunch... universal financing is going to go for a premium.. and it will hurt all markets...
125.20 looks like a great place to run like hell from the market

Lets see if I can lose some money

don't dissapoint daddy

of course

the best thing to do is prep for being wrong...

there are lots of good reasons to "not Play"

:)

I sure hope we get the rally my boogyman mojo

yamada, and the Great bear and

If you talk about great bear cycles.. they usually start with the largest sell off...

If you say 2001 was the start of a cyclical bear... Problem is we will never touch the 2003 lows...

I wonder

will Gimme Credit and Kathleen Shanley

get a visit from Regulators today.

or will WAMU last the weekend

Vix

I saw some stuff about the vix..... Let me just mention that the vix... I've never seen it to be a leading indicator.

I'm always trying, but a leading stock in a secotor, and maybe some of the laggards, With the Tick rate......
Still the way to trade.....

I keep hoping that vix will become useful... Cept when it hits 30

quantifyable edges

get out the boogyman....


Looking at the results of a 2% or greater drop after a bounce from a 200-day low I found that 47% of them went on to make new lows within the next 5 days. In every case where the market managed to hold above its recent lows for the next 5 days, it also held above them for at least 3 more weeks. The next five days may tell a lot about the sustainability of this attempted rally.
Funny when the model a week ago was 100% of a 20 day run.....

so take it for what it's worth.

One last thing today.

What I'm tired of ..... THE FUCKING GLOBAL DEPRESSION NARRATIVE....

I mean..... who touched you in the wrong way when you were a child.... that makes your mind work that way....

Sorry that was inappropriate.

After, every bank was going to fail, narrative...... Now I hear this crap..... I just .... I don't know if I can listen to 5 more months of that crazy bullshit.

9 months ago, global growth Juggernaut....

Now... Global Depression........ with inflation no doubt....

Isn't this proof that over half the market just stopped making sense a few months ago.

In 2 months I'll tune into kudlow and it will just be a bunch of jabbering, and drooling.

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Boogyman

Boogyman just has me right now... maybe a vitamin deficiency.... could be the houseguests...

Seems like we should get a good rally off my boogyman.

I have some bad news....

My Ex says I need a vacation.... I can't pull myself off the trading crack pipe, to do it.

I got a call this week, and someone offered me a project.... a non stock market project.

We just need some relief... Or I do..... Not sure how long the project will last, 1-2 weeks...

So I have the added stress of figuring out how to deal with my trading/investments... during that time......

So during my pretend vacation from the desk here.... What I'm saying is ... It'll probably push me over the edge, and I'll stroke out.....

I have no idea how I'll deal with the blog, Probably try and do some charts after work.

Just letting you know.

Overall, I need some sleep...

Where was I

2 weeks of the xlf. This is a great looking wave form. We also have the last 2 day's correction. Over all we are just playing with the march jan lows.
This is the pull back.... I'm not super Psyched about this wave form... but I can see a similar one repeating, in the uptrend....

Could see some uglyness in the morning...20.67 is support... It's also important

I look at that curve.. and it looks like everyone has earned their money.

This is what we are working on, I think...... I'm having a hard time grasping.... If the XLF trades range bound 21-24 or 22-25 or 22-26....... I'm worried about leadership... With materials getting killed, tech killed... consumer Killed....

I'm having a hard time modeling anything but sideways.

Maybe financials can trade sideways and materials can go sideways... and tech and consumer can go down.....

My goal would be to play long... but can't quite figure out where to play it.... Maybe barbell financials...

Sentiment july 24

After todays market
"how safe is your bank"
"santelli oil speculation debunk"
"dollar euro by 2008"

yesterday -market close
"today Libor"
"art cashin"
"Cub Bear market"
"art cashin"
"uptick for banks"
"doug kass"
"regional bank thesis"
"Xlf covering shorts"
"Gartman Oil"
"double XLF"

Yesterday we had some hope....
Now it's back to fear.

Crox is intersting at 2

Damn... can you see how tired everyone is..... You could see it at the close.....

after that month and a half decline. You could see the fatigue come back to everyone's face.
I'm tired Too..... how much would we give for a nice slow market..... Like .5% per day.

So..... I don't like the look of that wave.... it says to me .... there is more down side...

Just a little...... It could be the fatigue talking....

I want to throw my houseguests out.....

It's great... I can get sleep from 2am-4am.... then again things get quite after 10pm.... Perfect for a trader right?

Well I need a walk or a nap... one of the two

the chart above

shows nothing worked today..... Market was tired...

I was looking at libor... and it seems solid... there have been some moves in the 3 month... but slight moves

I'll do this later

Besides how quiet it was over at Big picture, and the manic bull over at ibank coin...

I started getting searches for going long banks.....

I'm still bullish, but those people chasing at this level, have to take some pain....

I always measure things based on how much risk someone took, and how they should be rewarded.

Chasing banks a week after the move happens.... You have to EARN IT.... so expect some pain.

have to buy some.... We have needed this correction... this has been agressive..
I'm also happy to chase them tomorrow.

well

I'm going to do some selective buying....

Tick Ratio


a little bit of panic..

here I am giving up...

and it will probably turn.... Mr Costanza

sigh


well seems like a sell off into the close... I may pick some stuff up into the close..

If the market thinks we will ever get to buy WFC at 20.... it's twice as crazy as I though.

I like this

Lets see a higher high

comon baby

10 months

Wow, some guy just said we are 10 months from a bottom....

WOW!! that would be historic.

Or he is an idiot

and he backs it up with "well nobody thinks oil is going to $100 so it's not going to happen"

retest


there is a successfull retest

here is a retest


I don't have confirmation here...

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"