Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

100 greatest hits of youtube

Diabolical Horror shows.

If you want them... There is that Lt. Blue Flag, Or the Red Flag. Or the Pennant in red on the bottom white on top, but that plays out like the red Flag.


obviously there isn't a solid Pole....

any number of those things will piss some traders off something Fierce!

It's a LEARNING GAME! or Lack there of!

You Choose!!!There is that 10% correction point, and the wedge. I heard Ron Insana saying he was waiting for that correction to put his money to work. Seems like Just enough time to get everyone bearish, and then to shove a White hot Pipe up their Ass!

before the final numbers go in the book

Here at the close and at the open tomorrow.


What is getting marked up, what the 401 K money is going into....

Is bonds.... that is where the little check marks are, on the 401 k forms

if this cup and handle

Plays out... Tony will be incorrigible.. cause the target is 110 roughly.

More fun than

a box of hammers, or barrel of monkeys, or...... I would have played the uptrend if I had thought it was more than a 50Pt move.have to think that traders are looking for some markup into the close... if that is what "They think" how do we play it?

I want to email

Maria Caruso Cabrera....


"The Market doesn't like NO PUBLIC OPTION"....

LOL!!!!

muahhhhhhaaaaahhhhhhaaaaa

what a solid 2 swing flag would look like

shown in white.

More Polanski

Before we discuss how awesome his movies are or what the now-deceased judge did wrong at his trial,...

Roman Polanski instructed her to get into a jacuzzi naked, refused to take her home when she begged to go, began kissing her even though she said no and asked him to stop; performed cunnilingus on her as she said no and asked him to stop; put his penis in her vagina as she said no and asked him to stop; asked if he could penetrate her anally, to which she replied, "No," then went ahead and did it anyway, until he had an orgasm.

As I read about this... and let me say... I SWEAR TO GOD! Most of my life I've tried to understand how great a director he must be to get away with this.... He must be AMAZING!!! and yet... I'm not eve sure I could rewatch Chinatown... Maybe when Nicholson Dies!

But, I heard the victim talk about the documentary, and how she just wanted to get this stuff behind her. Seems to me like Dragging this out for the past 30 years, has double victimized her. There is no choice but to finally Catch him, and bring him to justice.

and to be honest, I want to see him do a YEAR of HARD TIME! That is Just for Dragging this out! And Kudos to the Judge if originally he didn't think that 45 days in a mental ward was enough punishment!

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

FOUL!!! WORD USAGE!!!

You know, I'm twice as liberal as anyone and you have no idea how much I support the arts.

But lets just define Philistine Debra Winger!

I would try and come up with a word for someone who lacks Moral Values, but it would be redundant.

Let me also Assert that Roman Polanski is no great Artist! My entire life I kept wondering if there was some movie I had missed that somehow Justified a GangBang on a child. The only great movie he ever made was Chinatown, and I think Dunaway and Nicholson carried it, and the story. None of which he was responsible for.

His lack of follow through... I suspect if he had whacked himself in prison, he would be the Film version of Jim Morrison... but unfortunatly he lived long enough to torture me with The 9th Gate, Which was AWEFULL regardless of Johnny Depp.... HOW THE FUCK CAN YOU GO WRONG WITH DEPP.

But you did it POLANSKI!!!

and Debbra Winger... you were in a movie once... Cannery row was a better movie than half the polanski stuff.....

HANG HIS ASS!!! just for making me think he was a great film Maker!!!

My official... "I don't Like it."

I hinted at it all day. In fact I thought we needed to hold a modest gain today, I guess I don't get points for things I intended to say. Even With the Sell off, we should have held a higher low, and not flat with the low at the close.


Tomorrow is the last day of the quarter, they print the number in the books; in the morning, at the close, at the Oct. 1 Open.
I don't see a reason to mark it up. We are near the highs What does it matter if the market closes at +50% or +48%, your a winner your a winner or you are a loser you are a loser at this point. One May even suggest that once the books are marked, it would just be safe to take a little off.

I was reading somewhere that we are at 20x backward earnings. The Thesis you would have is some rotation moving forward, Into the back end of the cycle hyperinflation trade... or small Caps. But they are getting Creamed... SMH IWM





Say you have a Thesis that the same thing is going to happen again as happened the last 2 times. The market is a learning game, seems like "Everybody" has to think that, except more diabolical thinkiers.
But the extra horror show is that Steve Grasso is making a similar call... but maybe he knows what he isn't saying "The Inside, big money players" have stopped buying.

So... Official call is "Watch for it".

Update... What would have to happen is, the small caps or Late cycle stocks would have to start leading. Which means the dollar should get clobbered. I'm not sure... but After some correction over the past few days, we may get a retrace....

oops!

it is 15:30... so if buyers this is where they come in.


but may be getting a little descending here.

Too Much


I only had to back it up twice to be sure I saw what I saw... Not for the ... sensitive.

Michael Moore on Power lunch.














Was part of the deal that MCC, Had to be Gagged... or was she just too angry to talk? Also Moore showed how Bright he is. "You want to argue a 16th Century idea against a 19th century one? Aren't we in the 21st?" Bravo!!!! Bravo!!!!

One of these days we will get economics into the 20th century!!!(too much to hope that we will move into the 21st)

Starbucks!

I wonder if it was named after the character in Battlestar Galactica.

SBUX... I just wonder if they would do better if they just served the best cup of coffee and dumped all the biscuts and crap. Obviously you have to serve the anorexic the Machiato, or carmel Latte.

Nobody does Backless Like James Brown!


Missy is amazed to hear there are still Layoffs in the pipeline. Now if companies can't get topline growth, and are measured against their peers for increasing revenue by "Cutbacks"... what do you think they are going to do? Find a way to increase a shrinking market share(HARD), or fire some people...

Update

still haven't tested my 105. Weird that consumer confidence turned the market... haven't seen actual news turn the market in a thousand years. but there is the flag coming up.


It's not really 2 swing..... * shrug*... I'm just...
Many a slip between cup and a lip.

hmm

I'm not sure that this bodes well for the market..

When Last We Checked in with our Super Hero's...

I put in some wave 1-2-3 action to make tony feel better. It's still funny, since I don't Really Buy into EWT, except that it is a good way to talk about momentum. And as a predictive tool, I can talk possible wave patterns for hours, and make the market do just about anything.

But with our new sort of upswing, possibly starting yesterday.We can also look at what I talked about last week.
The Wave 4 or the wave 4.. Which could have just ended, and we can move up and make a new high as a wave 5.
But as I look at it, it's kind of an odd wave 4.

1.4577



that is the dollar euro...

So... What it needs to spook them is a huge gap.

Zero Hedge has this very stupid thing about gold manipulation. (I'm going to get a trackback here.) Which is why in a deflationary environment, it's easier for them to believe that it's being manipulated and all their gold bug tinfoil hats should be worth twice as much. Because of all the money printing that, isn't making it into the money supply.(Double talk intentional.)

Figure I'd post a chart.
There is no breakdown. I posted that line at about 105 Seems like that is where one could indicate that the upswing is over.... but of course be weary of getting trapped there. as a bear.

The thesis on a breakdown, and again I'M NOT SAYING THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN. would be that all the Knobbers that I said last week were going to get trapped, not only were trapped but then flipped their trades. And that roughly explains the move.
RE: window Dressing. I wouldn't think there would be a reason to window dress when we are at a 6 month High. The question would be if the people with 401K's Flipped their options at work over to Risk from Bonds.


Who is it

Who thinks I can schedule another 2.5 hours of my day to watch the Ken burns documentary "National parks"....


It would be one thing if it was once a week, but.... apparently every day

Monday, September 28, 2009

there is

so here is your wave 4 correction ... wave 5 and maybe we are done. or we are done.

bla bla bla

;)

Aparently




The dollar has reversed it's gains, and gold is going back to make new highs.Do you see it? I'm squinting Really hard...... MAYBE???!!! Either that or it's just going on in the hive mind that is CNBC.
SO... revised my flag. Guess all the Fools who jumped in short on friday get to take some Pain. Got to be ahead of the trade, or As MR. T says.
"I Pitty the Fool"
"Time for some PAIN!"

Sunday, September 27, 2009

3/4

Aparently...


I caught the hearing on the fed this morning as a replay, nice to see the Uber Crazies in the house fighting for the same tinfoil hat. Bachman, Ron Paul, that bald crazy guy from california who talks like he writes for ZeroHedge.


I'm dying to know how that Poll went out! 1 in 4 can't balance a CheckBook, I doubt if 20% even know what the Federal Reserve is. Hell, I'm not sure that 80% of the people know who the president is, or for that matter who Glenn Beck is.

But Somehow... some odd 80-75% of them support a federal Reserve Audit.

I'm just saying... THERE IS NO FUCKING WAY!

More Three in Four people believe:


Note to self!

When Drunk! Do not Duct Tape Cat!


It seem obvious that somebody started duct Taping a cat, then realized it was more problem than they could cope with!

Sunday morning newspaper.

2 interesting stories this morning,


Story about gun sales, and how the big boom post election has gone bust, and now they are only buying small handguns for woman. The assertion by the Gun guys is that it's the economy, and not a lack of new Lunatics.

Interesting part is that the woman was looking for quality out of her consumption; If that is the case we are all sunk!


(but it's not all that interesting. which is why I said 2 interesting stories.
but we are a lagging market, I hear. I think that the moratorium on foreclosures kicked the can down the road, and now the chickens have come home to roost.

There was also another story yesterday or the day before about how foodstamps were at a record levels seems like it reflects unemployment more than anything else.

This is fun: Cash4gold decided it would sue consumerist, for publishing what employees were saying about them. Propitiatory information about how they were just skewing you

Fed Transparency

I caught a few minutes of the fed transparency ron paul bill. It gave me a tick in my elbo, and I started to hear the helicopters, as the unfounded assertions and conspiracies from the Von Mieses institute started flying.


and the craziest of the congressmen stood up to share their tie-ins with their favorite conspiracies.

morning shows

Trish Regan on Matthews...


like an idiot machine, you can't turn off. And is she getting Plumper? Maybe giving maria bariromo a little challenge there.

not like I'd throw them out of bed for eating crackers!.

and of course Matthews continues his meme about how healthcare is not important. Seems like obama is too smart by half, cause the local paper has a similar meme. Some of us realize how very important it is, but I once suggested, seems like the members of GE and MSNBC and NBC and Rupert Murdoch's fox media empire... well, they don't care about healthcare, cause they get the best there is. But for small business who pay 3x what GE does and for those that get caught up in the healthcare nightmare... by actually getting sick...

This is roughly that GE and all the big companies use their purchasing power to out compete small companies using healthcare, and the healthcare companies use the smaller companies to supplement Fat Asses like Lue Dobbs, and Rush, can eat all the pie they want.

well our society of FreeMarkateers and Super Capitalism.... FUCK YOU FOR BEING STUPID ENOUGH TO GET SICK!

and all the healthy will just kick the issue down the road till it screws them, but then they will be the minority.

Come to Jesus about healthcare is coming!!!

Friday, September 25, 2009

More of something

Roughly played out. The potential flag building that I mentioned, is posted there. But I guess we could see some monday selling and that will get us to the other target. Then we can get another flag

Health Care

I'm thinking that we may see the public option, and it will be yet another way for the insurance companies to dump only sick people on the government.


We will have the elderly on Medicaid/care(I can't figure that out) and the cancer and chronic illnesses on the public option...

win win for the insurance companies.

senate sideshow

I'm a huge fan of the senate sideshow. proly focus on that today.


here is the guess.... all the lemmings are ready to go short, we will see more people Lock in some profits this morning, so I expect a down draft and mid day reversal, into some kind of flag through maybe monday morning.

That is the game as I see it....


Thursday, September 24, 2009

All over it

From fast money, they are all over the dollar trade and a continued downtrend over the next few trading sessions.


I don't know...

we will see, but they arn't blind to it....

I can never figure out if the blind are following the blind, or if everybody is on one side of the boat again.

some Freeper asshole is on my TV.

Talking counter Knowledge about what would have happened and that some assertion that if we hadn't bailed out whoever. Things would have been better.


It's infamous that if I post targets they don't happen and I've taken about 50% of my short positions off already.
2 targets on the spy.
A move to a new high on the UUP.
This consolidation pattern in the TLT looks to move 104-106... I'm nervous about that one.

New high on the vix 27-28. Then we can retrace.




Wednesday, September 23, 2009

still chance for the trap

and you know they will be all worked up tomorrow...


it's the trap here that I'm looking at...

but we have confirmation out of the vix and Peso... the other thing is that the fed meeting is a good dollar trend reversal day.

but still need confirmation highs and lows out of all of it.

here is the flag/swing...

nice little Elliot wave

well I won

None of it made any sense.... cept that there wern't buyers early, but not sellers.


then everything rampted, I even hung on through the fed....

but... You know me... not holding on for too long! it's a suckers game and at one point there will be no Greater Fool.

New game

I've been working on a new game...


trying to predict what "Everyone is going to do today".

Though thing is that it is sort of a 9am game, since futures tend to dictate how the day plays out. Of course I can try and predict futures.

overnight futures have been Pluss or Minus 2... so the easy thing is to say that is the range they will be in.

It's FOMC day, The normal thing is that the market sort of hovers till about noon, then sells off. Then we get the information risk of the Announcement.

Probably better to Not play, unless there is some kind of playable fed surprise.

Overall I'm still cautious, I want to see some kind of dollar and Vix Reversal to get bearish, we get one or the other and they don't seem to match up.

At this point the prediction is that everybody will think we will rise into the fomc, and we will see moves out of most of the commodities stocks in anticipation of the FOMC. So maybe there is a trade into commodities until about noon. After that it's all information risk.

I guess that is my prediction they will buy commodity stocks into the FOMC.

so the play will be to game them doing that.. get out before the fomc so you don't suffer the information risk.

we will see at 9am

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Say I was running EWT

and we have some wave 4 swings in green and some wave 5's in pink. Even that last wave 5 has now had a wave 4 pull back and is either starting on wave 2 of a down leg, or working on wave 5 of 5.


Or Superspike, and all the talk of dow 10K is correct or, we get the Terranova "SUPERSPIKE!"

The Super Spike

I'm not getting involved, Teranova was on my TV talking about a "SuperSpike" I haven't been watching CNBC today, not sure what sentiment is like right now. it was kind of split it seemed.


The good case he makes is that according to everyone, the fundamentals are negative.... I think I have to agree that that is the universal opinion. He believes this will turn into panic buying in a super spike 1150 or something, this shows 1130.

I also... that second bump was better as far as sentiment was for a "Top"... But a End of quarter panic buy... right into the quarter end? universal Sigh? next tuesday when nobody will notice?

Or worse a sell off below the other 2 downswings, get them bearish and then Superspike.

I havn't shared my opinion much, and mentioned it last week, honestly I don't know...

maybe that is your sentiment indicator..

ok ok

what a bear would be looking for is for that to flag itself out.

Monday, September 21, 2009

intraday charts

just posting some trend lines. from the intraday

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Still trying to get Details

But the rocket scientists in congress have now decided to pull off... what I expected. The solution to health care, is to give more money to insurance companies.


most probably outcome is forcing people into "Insurance Programs" that are low end, So that Minor injuries will be covered but anything Major will still cause bankruptcy. Unless of course people want to spend half their income on a Decent program.

we will see if it's a "Tax Break" or a "Tax Credit" and how much but I doubt it will be larger than 5K.. what is that $400 a month.

apparently the breaks come if you are paying over 15% for health care.
which should be easy since lower middle class is 30K per family, and median health expenses are 15K.

so there could be up to a 4K dollar penalty to not have insurance....

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

LOL

This was from the awl

Holy Bananas

"everybody should stair at this photo every day and contemplate their life choices"

I kid you not!

Some guy was on Washington Journal (c-span call in show);


I forgot why I love this program!!! but I digress;

But this guy says "I saw CNBC yesterday, and some guy(Gasparino) said that no matter what brokers and bankers are always caught up in these crazy bubbles, and they always find a way around the regulations.... So, what I propose is that they loosen the GUN LAWS so that then when they screw people, they will be afraid of the people."

then some guy came on talking about how half the shares in your portfolio are fraudulent shares.. Bla bla bla goldman, short selling, naked shorts....

there was a comment months ago by a person calling in at 4 am from the west coast... and the joke was "how if you just get some sleep buddy!!"

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Grumble!

"The race was close and Johnson was getting worried. Finally he told his campaign manager to start a massive rumor campaign about his opponent's life-long habit of enjoying carnal knowledge of his own barnyard sows. 'Christ, we can't get away with calling him a pig-fucker,' the campaign manager protested. 'Nobody's going to believe a thing like that.' 'I know,' Johnson replied. 'But let's make the sonofabitch deny it.'"

Politics isn't clean. I was riminded of Civility again today. As well what a bunch of Morons Y'all are. Aparently Whatever ACORN is... and all it's attemtps to take over the world. I'm serious, I have NO CLUE WHO ACORN IS... some Service organization, that is about as relivent as most of Glen Beck's arguments...

so just to be clear... what ever it is... somebody stopped it from it's decitfull plan to round all the White folk up and shove them in concenteration camps using the U.S. Census.... PRETEND CRISIS AVERTED.... Morons!

This is like watching the mentaly challenged box their own shaddows...

So, Serina Williams Bitched out a Linesman... and ended up losing the U.S. Open because of it.... If only we had such civilized measures of accountability in CONGRESS!.

Poorly the democrats arn't all over this Joe Wilson thing, They need to be getting milage out of saying..... OK Genious... so your plan is death panel by ambulance driver. You like the idea that aparently if some Peach Picker in California falls off the Tractor and has his leg crushed!!!! it's the responsibility of this country to Let the fucker die! YES SIR.... THIS IS THE AMERICA WE BELIVE IN!!!!! THAT IS THE AMERICA that we can have PRIDE IN!.... ONE THAT LETS PEOPLE DIE IN A DITCH!!!!

"FUCK YOU YOU FREE LOADING SPIC HOMO!!!! MAKING THAT FRUIT COMPANY RICH, BY UNDERPAYING AND EXPLOYTING THE POOR!!!!! DIE YOU DIPSHIT!!!!! " RIGHT????? that is the AMERICA WE CAN BELIEVE IN!!!

or is this the kind of crazy hatefull bullshit that has been eroding at the seams of this country for 40 years?....

and maybe it's time to get back to being people we can be proud of!!! People that we can say we are glad to be!

nope... we will probably just keep working on being ignorant racist morons!!!!... and yes... you are doing honor to the ignorant moron you were on 9-12-2001... LETS GO GET THEM SANDNIGGERS JETHRO!!!!! "WELL WHICH ONES!" "WHO GIVES A SHIT... LET'S GIT EM ALL!!!"

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

If you like a Literate candidate

you should love this.




How about one that can draw all 50 states... he isn't stuart smally for nothing!

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

30 million

we get 30 million shares in the last hour... we will be on track for the lowest volume in the rally!

Yipeee

big new gold price.... oil up.... the Chinese are saying fuck you to their commodities contracts....


not sure santelli will be excited about the "Bastions of Central control, capitalist genius" deciding that contracts and the rule of law are .... fungible.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Big tennis weekend

Tons of great stuff...


well back to the market...

word again seems like up down or sideways....

So...make money up down or sideways....

That is all...

So much stupidity... seems like the president of the united states can't talk about education.... Next he won't be able to talk about economics or national security.....

Like I keep saying.... Y'all are so fucking stupid!... well maybe not you...

People constantly caught in their Catch-22's Too much inflation too much deflation too much debt, more spending.

Seems like the lizard brains are just about whatever is on the menu for today's lunch...

but I digress....

Friday, September 4, 2009

suprise V recovery!!!

Wait... I'm not sure that is GDP!!!! oh!!! you mean that near 20 percent unemployment rate is ... those are the people who are going to be buying Christmas presents... and we are in the 2003 bull market recovery..... seems like we need to cut real unemployment in half! to get there!!


You mean this isn't all about Animal Spirits... and people might be BROKE!

I know we don't do sentiment

but all the tards are Positive!!!!


but it's hard to .... I mean.. its the friday before a holiday weekend!!

maybe they will refuse to be long!

seems like maybe a fast Bear flag setup.

Even the god of the Libritarian gold bugs is full of doubt!


Solid sign of the apocalypse












Thursday, September 3, 2009

a page

sort of took a page from the Doug Kass book and took a flyer... The hard and seemingly imposible trade!

update on the breakout! on gold

All things Tennis and U.S. Open

Georgian Melanie Odin(usa) just beat #4 dementiava.


she plays Sharapova next!...

Proly on the MAIN STAGE! Prime time at the US OPEN... Prolly Saturday!

THE GREAT ARMAGEDDON TRADE

Pointing out some stuff, cause we know where the money in this trade is!

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

well now!!!

Hey big U.S. Open.... You know what has my affections... U.S. Cycling Pro Champ were this weekend. George Hindcapie.... who BTW was at the U.S. open last night...

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"