Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

My official... "I don't Like it."

I hinted at it all day. In fact I thought we needed to hold a modest gain today, I guess I don't get points for things I intended to say. Even With the Sell off, we should have held a higher low, and not flat with the low at the close.


Tomorrow is the last day of the quarter, they print the number in the books; in the morning, at the close, at the Oct. 1 Open.
I don't see a reason to mark it up. We are near the highs What does it matter if the market closes at +50% or +48%, your a winner your a winner or you are a loser you are a loser at this point. One May even suggest that once the books are marked, it would just be safe to take a little off.

I was reading somewhere that we are at 20x backward earnings. The Thesis you would have is some rotation moving forward, Into the back end of the cycle hyperinflation trade... or small Caps. But they are getting Creamed... SMH IWM





Say you have a Thesis that the same thing is going to happen again as happened the last 2 times. The market is a learning game, seems like "Everybody" has to think that, except more diabolical thinkiers.
But the extra horror show is that Steve Grasso is making a similar call... but maybe he knows what he isn't saying "The Inside, big money players" have stopped buying.

So... Official call is "Watch for it".

Update... What would have to happen is, the small caps or Late cycle stocks would have to start leading. Which means the dollar should get clobbered. I'm not sure... but After some correction over the past few days, we may get a retrace....

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