Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

The Super Spike

I'm not getting involved, Teranova was on my TV talking about a "SuperSpike" I haven't been watching CNBC today, not sure what sentiment is like right now. it was kind of split it seemed.


The good case he makes is that according to everyone, the fundamentals are negative.... I think I have to agree that that is the universal opinion. He believes this will turn into panic buying in a super spike 1150 or something, this shows 1130.

I also... that second bump was better as far as sentiment was for a "Top"... But a End of quarter panic buy... right into the quarter end? universal Sigh? next tuesday when nobody will notice?

Or worse a sell off below the other 2 downswings, get them bearish and then Superspike.

I havn't shared my opinion much, and mentioned it last week, honestly I don't know...

maybe that is your sentiment indicator..

10 comments:

Tony said...

It's like the of adage that nobody is happy when they leave the casino: losers are disappointed that they lost and winners wish they would have been more aggressive.

Maybe this sentiment is what fuels the spike top-- everyone, even the winners, are trying to benefit from that last push.

I can't help but think about 1999 to March of 2000. The Naz went from 2500 to 3000 to 3500 to 4000 and all the people were saying "this is nuts" but they kept throwing money into the market. The Naz finally hit 5200 then broke down with the classic subtle warning followed by the overt warning and then the crash.

I just don't see this rolling over softly like Oct 2007. This feels like it's going to spike... I mean AIG at $52 ????? I remember SUNW going to $67 or so in 2000. It *feels* like the same thing, albeit on a smaller scale.

The reason this is so vivid is that I had a lot of SUNW and sold it in March despite my Merrill broker vehemently advising to HOLD as she looked for other tech stocks for me to buy buy buy. Admittedly, it was pure luck since I had no clue what the TA was saying. I just couldn't let those winnings ride anymore.

My technical analysis skills are remedial (despite reading books and looking at these squiggles every day), but there must be a psychology--- a sentiment-- that is operative.

Eric said...

You don't really think this will hang on till precicly the end of the quarter so that everyone can "Take some off the table, just to be safe."

I'd watch that possible flag I posted.

But it is fair to give the model, cause if it does happen we can be prepared. or if it doesn't game out like the money managers want, and they are "All in" and we start to fail, because EVERYBODY IS LOOKING FOR THE GREATER FOOL.

Tony said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Tony said...

(I put up a shorter url link)

It's Gann Day! Beware the Equinox:

http://tinyurl.com/l8784f

Eric said...

Waxing Crescent, 22% full...

That as sentiment is about as negative as it gets!

Eric said...

I mean your barons article is about as bearish as it gets right now.

cept art cashin's every day rain dance

Eric said...

doug kass at the close

went BULLISH

"if you can't beat them, Join them"

Tony said...

Bernanke talks tomorrow. Quarter ends next week. So maybe everyone unloads before the weekend.

On the other hand, T.Lo has said that the Aug high of 104.34 needs to be taken out for the picture to change. The official Invivo stop is a close below 103.36.

So, it's really out of my hands.

Eric said...

Just giving possibilities... I wouldn't make a call

Tony said...

Thank god for stops.

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