New game

I've been working on a new game...

trying to predict what "Everyone is going to do today".

Though thing is that it is sort of a 9am game, since futures tend to dictate how the day plays out. Of course I can try and predict futures.

overnight futures have been Pluss or Minus 2... so the easy thing is to say that is the range they will be in.

It's FOMC day, The normal thing is that the market sort of hovers till about noon, then sells off. Then we get the information risk of the Announcement.

Probably better to Not play, unless there is some kind of playable fed surprise.

Overall I'm still cautious, I want to see some kind of dollar and Vix Reversal to get bearish, we get one or the other and they don't seem to match up.

At this point the prediction is that everybody will think we will rise into the fomc, and we will see moves out of most of the commodities stocks in anticipation of the FOMC. So maybe there is a trade into commodities until about noon. After that it's all information risk.

I guess that is my prediction they will buy commodity stocks into the FOMC.

so the play will be to game them doing that.. get out before the fomc so you don't suffer the information risk.

we will see at 9am