Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Monday, June 30, 2008

Ugh....

I think I'm tired of the market... and that I expected us to sell off heavily.. and we arn't all that Bearish....

I just want it over..

and that we are trading oil....

and I'm sick of saying we could get a rally if we can get some oil relief....

and what is the Mantra... if they don't scare you out they will wear you out.

Forget the market full of hate

I just hate the market right now....

I don't know what I think about the ECB cutting, I want to believe in a short term rally....

I don't want to slide down the slope of hope....

alot of stregnth after 11pm....

I don't know, I think my mojo is off.

Tops and bottoms



Wireless? Pipelines? water Utilities?

contrarian

So, nobody is talking a top in oil at 143.
Nobody is talking a "Near Term Low" in the market here.

makes me nervous.

arggg

welll Im frustrated this morning... I'll stick with my thesis of a wash out this week... Chances of some inflow of money with the start of the new quarter.

I may jump off a bridge if we muddle this week.

hmm

well.... Art says we may not get our wash out.

this trade has been on oil, that has concerned me, as a trade.

As a Function, the rallies have become thinner and thinner, and the buying seems to only be traders. With Redemtpions, and there hasn't been a decent rally, we have had 4 some odd attempts that have compleatly fizzled by 1pm.

I just don't see any stregnth. I also don't, near term see any sidline money come in...

It's just a market full of hate.

bad dollar
bad oil

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Saturday

Belive it or not I hate saturday.

I don't decompress till somewhere in the afternoon.

So basicly.... Hopefully I get a good night's sleep on friday night, maybe sleep in.. or catch a 7am nap. and then I try and figure out what the hell I'm going to do.

Usually I avoid everything market related, but this morning has been different. I'm just trying to get a great handle on everything before next week. See what everyone thinks about the sell off...

Friday, June 27, 2008

What I expect

I'm expecting a huge down day on monday.. Regardless of what is going on... the market has no buyers.... We need to find them..... We should sell of hard on monday, then find them on tuesday.

we need that huge down day that precipitates the bottom......

It unnerves me..... I'm suprised how well the regionals were holding up.. then the last 2 days they have been cracking... I don't expect them to hold up...

I do suspect my calls may be very valuble when the vix spikes.. maybe more valuble than when I purchased them... so I may toss them.... Maybe not.

I just think monday will be that day that you want to puke, and tuesday will be when you want to buy.... we are just building to that.... a nice 400 pt down day to scare the shit out of people... then hold your dick and buy like mad

tipping points

what would be interesting is to be able to track on a proportional basis, when the market goes up more on an oil sell off, than it goes down with an oil increase.

more oil

oil was in a range.. as a trader you see it break the range.. so you jump on as it breaks... that is the point where... well that is where a wave 3 happens.. that wave fizzles... what is that 141.50?

I guess my point is at one point everyone going long will have gone long..

here is the oil fight from this morning

Market Inefficiancy

..... I heard today, how confused traders and money managers are. Of course they are waiting for the standard... Wash out move before jumping in....

Maybe what we will have is a few days of flat trading, then a nice decline, into a panic...

I'd still say it's more about oil... but even a drop will be looked at suspiciously.

overall I'd say this is solid capitulation buy the bears on oil...

I'll sugjest we are in a near term market inefficiancy.... I'm not saying there isn't more trouble down the line..

Supply and Demand

Great argument on Squawk this morning, Santelli and Jack Bouroudjian. I'll try and post it later.

but about oil...

My argument is more a fundamental one... If I buy an oil contract Long either a futures contract or ETF... it creates Demand for the Contract, and oil. therefore drives the price up. That I had money and turned it into oil... drives the price up.. As if I buy a futures contract in the S&P, If I put my good hard cash into something, it has to drive the price up... that is how markets work.... You can't believe in markets if you believe that somehow I buy or sell something, and it has no effect on the price....... That is ASSHATERY.

Oil can go to a million on speculation.

Head scratcher

It's friday, friday are mistake days for me... stick with the thesis.

I may take a rest day... and yet I'll probably show up at the trading desk....

Thursday, June 26, 2008

How about a negative 350 rant

How about this Bear Huh!!!!!. I said 11300 months ago.... I win, I also said 12800 for that first leg in December... I also got the 1450 for the top of that rally.....even though I was off by 10 pts... and I do admit I suspected another small leg up.... But..... I'm still a rookie....

I guess I'm going to tell a story. In august I was busy... You know.... all that stuff one is busy with... and just moving some investments around..... I was suspicious, so suspicious I invested in some gold even.... Well that first leg down took gold with it...... I was a little ahead of the market... Well gold did rally back..... and that august leg down, I spent about every hour of my time doing research..... and research about stagflation, and bear markets and how they trade......

I knew that As the fed starts cutting rates we have a denial rally to new highs..... We got that in October. Then we start to decline... Usually that decline... in a Real bear will decline between 20-40%.... that total decline it will take half of it in the first part of the year, then the second in the second half of the year ... with a rally in between.

That follows Standard EWT Wave A down... Wave B Up then C down

Here is the decline since October... What this suggests though... is that we still need a wave B... followed by a wave C Delcine..... My point is Even if we Rally.... Don't trust it... maybe between now and Tuesday... we will bounce... but event then... I wouldn't trust it for longer than a couple weeks. That is scary.

This is the 2 years of the 73-73.... That first Delcine is a 20% decline, then as you notice we muddle... and in 73-74 we muddled for 6 months... IMO we are more at the end of that last red line.... For all the "Bear" markets I looked at... admitidly I didn't go back beyond this century... We declined a total of 20-40% over the first Period... but in 2 very separate Sections with a solid Muddle in between..... I don't believe that the muddle we have had between Jan and may was enough, that was only 3 months.... it is too small a muddle. We want a solid Range bound Muddle... and then a ridiculous decline that will make everyone want to shoot themselves... But with Oil shooting to Ridiculous highs, that make these highs seem silly. this took 2 years.

Then we just spend 5 years range bound between say 10k and 12k.

The same thing causes this every time... Santelli was talking about this... Someone comes up and asks you for $100, you say no way, give them $100 and they are excited... The fed is stupid, just as emotional as everyone else, after 30 years of "Free Money", because the fed won't to the hard thing and Take the money away. They have done it just like Children do with finance, where they run up credit Until they cant pay it back. That is what the fed has done. Over all for quite some time they are going to whistle past the grave yard on it, Take no responsibility(go back to my thesis on them being children).

They will, as time allows start raising rates, and instead of trying to break the back of inflation, like good Austrian economists, they will approach it like Dim-whit What ever type of economists they are.

I think over the next 3 months to year the stress is going to get to uncle ben, you can tell he has a nervous condition, and academics are not "men of Action" or they would .. do something, as the congress Beats the shit out of him. They could quite honestly look to Fed Fisher to bail us out... they don't know anything, all they know is what they are doing now Isn't working... and will look to someone else and scape goat Uncle ben.

Of course then when fisher smartly doesn't want to give out the free lollypops in 10 years, they will dump Fisher, and find some easy money guy to replace him... and the cycle will start again.

Overall... ya....... I'm just saying be Cautous.... Things are never the same... Some say things are never different.... I'd say, things are never the same, but very simaler.... The interesting thing is how things will be different. I can't believe the fed isn't being more cautious, and if when the ECB meets and oil is at 150, I wouldn't doubt if Trichet is going to call Uncle Ben's bluff...

I hope oil moderates What I can't believe is how bullish it acts... it hasn't shown any weakness since 115, that is a 30% gain... On nothing...

Tumor

After catching a few nice runs this moring... by that I mean 3. after that the market died..... No fun for anyone..

Cramer... on street signs giveing the serious face, talking about 700 more pts to the downside... Ya, I'm still talking 11,300.....

Sure I was hoping for a turn today.. and then oil broke the spine of any rally....

there are no sellers, just nobody who wants to buy stock with high oil.

I'm not an armageddon bear... People buy stock.

BTW My Calls on Big cap Regionals... are Positive.

I tell you the dollar trade right now is that the ECB will tighten..... that one is concerning me, I'd flip a coin... even give odds that it won't happen. but that doesn't make it an invalid trade from now till it does or doesn't happen.

Over all.... It's very obvious... there is no reason to play... even oil feels too volitle to play.

Trading/investing is all about risk management.... and there is absolutly no reason to get involved in this market None.....

I was just running some charts.... Good news is I don't see more than another 100pts on the SPX to go..... in this whole bear...... I could be wrong but...

I don't know

Nice spike in oil......

shove money in the matress....

I'm suprised the market is holding up at all.

oil.....

if only it could trade in the 130 range....

every damn day.... does it feel like it is the last chair in a game of musical chairs?

8 days of the spy


We have a nice looking wave 5 from yesterday into today.... Maybe another low... but we are starting to see some nice MACD divergence...on this time line... I suspect the rest of the time lines will develop over the course of the day......
*shrug* this sell off has been aggressive... and if we can get some bearishness out of oil, these levels could hold.....
The Big Regionals Look Great, consolidating working on a break out of the recent range... Ya.. maybe the big financials could catch a little bounce.... I don't know... but shit on them... Personally I'd hope for another week of selling in them, before I'd think about them. Energy acting much more bearish than the market....
My point is.... lets start looking for a turn.... Maybe I'm being optimistic

Trading with TK

I'm getting to be more of a fan, I love his indicator... apparently when the market is up it's overbought and when it's down it's oversold.... that is what I've figured out.

Energy

I'm not talking about Carbon.

There is alot of energy in the market again... We are in a Fast Money Traders market...

From what I've seen, this kind of market, which can last for 1-3 days... is a sign of a change.

Lots of volitility in the oil market. Up $6 down 3 up 3 down 3.

In all this armageddon, I'm liking the way the big cap regionals are holding up.. My calls are up big.

What I don't buy is that the fed on hold is bullish for either the Euro or commodities....

so lets see...

Flight to oil

The mad max trade is back on.... and gold is being added gold to that trade.

Finaly the market agrees with me about the big financials... they should take those out and shoot them...
but what will hapen with my regional banks?

The fed was stupid, they should not have cut the last time.... had they, then they could have cut this time... or stayed pat....

Oil is just a flight to safety... Now... I was realy wanting to buy oil last night....so as a contrary indictor???.....

Over all the market isn't interesting... I'll keep one eye open... but like everyone else... daytrade only... I have held some stock every once in a while.... and I have calls

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

did the Chinese finally stop buying Oil?

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. crude inventories posted an unexpected gain in the week ended June 20, bucking analysts' expectations and five consecutive weeks of declines, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Energy

Market

I'm stumped..... the Elliot waves sugjest a bounce .... a solid 2-3 day one, maybe better.

Looking at the oil chart it's looking bullish..... Yes, I still maintain the the volitility is Bearish... but Maybe we break up higher....

Once again we are in the 135-136 range on oil... The dollar is at 1.56 which sucks... says that the fed is full of Pussies.

It makes more sense to me that we are headed for 11300... maybe we get a jump back to 12500 then come back down. or maybe we jump 200 pts then come back down.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Optimisum

After I saw the banks rally in a significant way..... I'm cautiously optimistic....

I also like the action in oil today.... It just keeps giving up ground.

so maybe a couple day rally...

Broader sectors

Regionals Lead.
Insurance.
Semiconductors.
XLF-finacials

are all up...

Church of what is working now

these sectors are up.... Recreational Products, Food Retailers(up on a big win for Kroger) Precious metals, tobacco, auto's..... then

Flat are

Banks

Point being there are 5 up sectors. The musical chairs are getting thin.

The big financials

.... IMO they have a lot of distance to fall... like 20%

Trapped market

I'm still psyched to not be playing.... I've talked 11300 before.... I still think a little neutal... but I don't think the market much cares.

It's obvious to me the fed must raise rates... I can't believe how stupid they are.

With the amount of market matipulation they are into... they show their ignorance by not realizing they were stupid to cut rates so far, and have caused as many problems as they have solved.

I'm not psyched to play besides calls yet.

Monday, June 23, 2008

Gold financials .. a ramble

Gartman was in gold at 890.... Opps they were running for the exits this morning... because... Well Nobody wants gold quite yet.
I'm still mulling my target of 1.50 for the Euro dollar.....

I like to see continued pain in the Ibanks and Money centers... I think they are due for a good 20% cut...

anyone interested in C at 10?
MER at 20?

Stocks

It's straight up the Mad max Trade.... If oil can trade in the 132-133 range we could maybe trade flat.

very low energy trading.... Sellers and no buyers... seems like we are out of sellers too... Just suposition

Who knows

I'm not sure we are going to fund much support here... Market is ready to go lower.....

we could see a nice little relief rally... heck maybe we can trade sideways till the FOMC...

I'm tempted to watch tennis all day.

Friday, June 20, 2008

JPMORGAN to buy bank

They said they were looking at
STI WAMU.

I say they merge and buy JMP.

I don't post on the indexes much anymore

Umn... I'd say the open on monday will be down... Unless oil is down $10

hardest part of the market is that it's all trading on oil... for the most part.

134.77 is the close on oil

My thesis for a very long time is that if we want a great Rally in the stock market, if we could get

JPM, LEH, C, MER, GS...... To all go out of buisness, with all their Market Tomfoolery, and asshatery, and Lying Thieving ways.....

we could get a 2k pt rally...

Crooked Bastards

rally?

well I think the only rally to hope for is for a short covering rally into the close

We shall see...

Isralies and oil

We should nuke the isralies for trying to drive oil up.

and I want opec to come out and cream the market

oil

Oil traded up over $1.00 driving the market down...

now it has given back that dollar + some

135.60 oil

Fucking oil shit...

rally

Lets just forget that rally for a bit...

There was a bearish move in oil that got us to rally... now the market is back to

"THE JITTERZ!!!!"

fortunatly I can get that DUG going again...

Also

I cleared out of my Dug position... Made good money....

I may restart it later... but I'm not paying good atttentio to it..

but.... you know the dip buyers... they seem like they want to come in.

suspecting the reversal

which has developed as I posted this

(UPDATE) I then had to vacate that position. Oil is trying to rally

Trading with TK

Mid day observation
By TK
Things have calmed down
from that mini panic earlier. This is some game we chosen. Anyway we are
oversold pretty good, and I would not be surprised to see a rally develope. Like
a roller coaster. Talk to you later



I agree.. watch for a rally, the indexes aren't as week as I'd suspected

and it made me laugh wen he said "this is some game we've chosen(I corrected the gramer)

go STT

*DJ State Street Boosts Qtrly Div To 24c From 23c >STT

Boogyman Loses Again

Yep... I don't believe in God, or Boogymen...

Caviot, In the shower this morning I wanted to puke.

I suspect a solid pull back... but the uptrend has been super strong.... and this will kill the indexes if the financials start correcting

Generals Fighting the Last war

In the housing crash of 1990 it was the Savings and loans that had all the bad loans to home ownerns, This time.... It's not the Regionals that have that Pain...

Unless the bank was stupid enough to either Write Interest only loans(Zion), or own the Myriad of Zombi like securies...

Mostly those are in Funds, and i-banks.... and Other places looking for marginal "Safe Gains"

Ya no quote today

Have to wait for the market to stabilize this morning.....

the worst part about posting a trade is that I feel like I have to follow up. So here I am..... Trying to not have my dick cut off.

Like a good gambler, the secret is to reduce the amount of gambling you are doing.... Don't risk too much trying to get .04 out of a stock.

and I feel like I have to tell people how I trade. I will trade 1-4 stocks in a day, I play live trend line support, and use EWS as an artful chartastrolgy.

fuck... This is too hard.... +/- after taking half my profits in RF yesterday after that big run.... The other half I stopped out today(not that I ran a stop, but that it kicked back hard, and I managed to get out Even roughly(not true, but when you make $50, who gives a shit)

The market is funky this morning.... the indexes want to break... but the Regionals are putting up one hell of a fight...... Feel like they are getting their Dicks back

I cleared out of my dug position, and am looking to restart it......

boogeyman

The boogeyman has me this morning.....

but... Like a Great Orgasmic Bull charge into "Stocks going to the Moon"

I guess the boogeyman trade has it's own Grimm Reaper Orgasm.

and some boogyman futures too.

but I'll watch for downside today... we are definatly on the edge here.

Thursday, June 19, 2008

06/19/2008 14:32 OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Closes $4.88 Lower At $131.80/Bbl

I know I'm playing with fire.... but .... I just think that the decent regionals will make it.... The Shitty No doc loans were securitiezed..... that was the point of them, securitize and sell them off in order to get higher yield in the form of a Psudo Bond.

It is possible they will be merged out of existance as cramer says.... Especialy if the stocks go to 2.

The systemic risk of a moneyline bank or Ibank is segnificant... but the Psycological risk of a Regional bank failure is by far worse....

Speaking of that type of Trade... Gold went crazy this morning... I'm not sure why...

BBT

*DJ BB&T Reaffirms First-Qtr Div Comment

*DJ BB&T Corp: Mgmt Sees Some Increase In Cash Dividend During 2008 >BBT

There is some smart managment..... WTF would you wait till now to cut dividend....

This is directed at you FIFTH THIRD....

and then to have to raise 2 Billion.... WTF.

I mean Key Bank is stupid, and have always had trouble with Deposits, and being Capitalized.....

Today's tape

...... What I like about today's tape....

I like to see the big banks finaly taking it in the ass. Losing 3-4%... and just taking it like they are headed to the Teens.... Like they should be.....

RF regions financial

I'm Playing with fire... this is a 3 day 15 minute chart...

5x volume yesterday, slightly lower low today... seems to have found some stability. The down side correction shows 2 legs down. It's about to break the downtrend(wave 5 down trend, not the overall downtrend). MACD divergence, on about every time frame..... It seems good for a bounce... if not a near term low.......

NOW They have not cut the Dividend, it's payable After next Week.... Every posiblity they will monday or tuesday.... But it seems Cooked in... But that doesn't mean that it won't take more pain.
I will be temtped to hold this into the close, if it can hang on into the close.... and if oil can break 132.... that will make it much easier to sleep.

Super Scarry Trade!!!!!!!!

Update

So........This market is still unstable, and Oil Has to Crack... but the oil stocks feel nasty.... Selling off harder than financials.

I picked up some calls... that was tough.....

Emotionaly I feel like the market had that wave 3 fear... I alittle wave 4 optimisum... and the final wave 5 Boogyman today.......

Of course maybe everything is good when Buckaroo banzai is on....

Buckaroo Banzai: "Hey, hey, hey — don't be mean. No need to be mean. 'Cause, remember: no matter where you go...

..... there you are"

There is some good news

Oil drops as China says it will raise fuel prices

I was trading around and didn't get why my dug was working and everything else had stalled...

Mad Max Trade

On the rally this morning I started some short index positions. I could see we were setting up for some nastyness. reflex rally. Time to find some buyers in the market.....

I think they are lower.

We could find those buyers monday or tuesday of next week.

Capitulation

Today we ought to be able to see first that Booker T. Washington faced a situation in which he was seeking desperately for a way out, and he could see no way out except capitulation.

C. L. R. James.

So.... I'm beat.... where is the Euro dollar? 1.45, Where is oil $135, How are the markets, oil stocks going up financials going down....

Same Trade Different day.

This just isn't interesting.... I suspect a bit of a leg down in the next 3 days. And I'm not very interested till oil gets below $130

Maybe I'll get some balls and buy some calls in the financials today. But honestly none of this is interesting. I know I'm totaly at capitulation... Maybe that is a good sign for the market.... Honestly I was looking at a vacation... the one I'll never take....

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Oil

30 minutes of floor trading left.

I'd like to hope that oil is going to give it up.. but yet again, it's closer to the top than breaking support. Even with a sell off, it's going to take 115 for the market to get optimistic.

I think we are headed to a dollar/Oil Fed Crisis.

I wanted to post about this but WFT is the fed doing, after talking the dollar up. then having the ECB cut their legs off.... then they put the full court press to get it back up.... Then they get that story out about how they really aren't going to cut.....

does it show that they are completely confused? and that they have no idea what they are doing. I think oil could go to $150 and the fed will be forced to cut....... Which is the stupidest thing in the world.....

I don't know, I'm just into how Stupid things are...

and the regional banks.... Trading at early 1990's levels.... It's crazy... either there is something to how the uptick rule works, or we are in a lot of trouble...... and oil will be that Mast sticking up above the water on the sinking ship.

and if financials can't find some support, neither will the market.....

Maybe my feelings on this are a contrary indicator... but the market is making me very nervous.

Morning

Oil is looking rough...... I'd watch for it to break the 132 level, and could find the 125 level.

I also feel like the morning boogyman is gone...

and I love stocks trading 5% intraday swings........

WTF

Good to not own stock... My aggressive trading strategies continue to pay off... and my decision to not own stock into the close yesterday... was super smart.... have to watch the inner contrarian. I do have some calls that will be worthless... Maybe .

UPDATE: Fifth Third Plans $1 Billion Capital Raise, To Slash Dividend

there will be an upside trade here, as this stock will be demolished this morning.... and then should bounce....

WTF..... If you needed to do this... why not do it a month ago... or 2. just shows how stupid bankers are.

good news bad news

It is an ill thing to be the first to bring news of ill.

Aeschylus


I'm having a hard time believing that there is more bad news in the Regional banks... course I've been saying it for weeks...

We had a low on Friday? and we had a pull back on Tuesday.... but not to a lower low. We had huge disbelief in the rally on Monday. Maximum pessimism on Friday, which rebuilt again today.... The regionals are universally Hated. They are trading at Unprecedented Inflation adjusted values. Based on limited bad news, they are at 1/4 their 2006 value.

I'm not talking about the money center or Ibanks... they have much lower to go.

The fact Even i'm nervous about them, makes me think there could be some upside.

good news with goldman was bad news... maybe bad news with morgan is cooked in....

Sell the rumor buy the news.

I see that a lot of traders are having a tough time... and yesterday I'll admit was super aggressive.. When even the day traders are having a hard time..... It makes me think the trend is going to reverse..

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Well... been a long day.

some of this volatility is insane.....

I picked up some calls... just some small tradable positions I'm thinking as far as momentum tomorrow will be an important day....

Was today consolidation, or was it the beginning of another downtrend....

xlf


one more high after this... but probably into the close.... which makes it fairly stupid forecasting.

xlf

there is my high..... by my count 2 more highs and 1 more higher low....

but it is all about oil... so if it breaks hard, it will have a hard time sustaining itself

First on CNBC

A doctor in surgery, thought "If only we could put patient files on the Internet, and access patient records that way. That would revolutionize our industry"

Wholly crap..... where do you get these guys. Johnny come lately.

What a Genious, thank god when I'm under the knife these guys have it in their hands.

"If only we had something Round, and could put it under vehicles, to help them move better, instead of dragging our carts around....."

"You know, For kids"

chart pattern

this is the xlf today. The way I read it... to start off this is a 5 wave pattern. It's actually the same pattern 3 times... which builds the same pattern, Roughly 3 higher highs(ya, there are only 2), and 2 lows. Which is why I don't trust this has broken down yet, a somewhat similar pattern in Oil....
But, as I read it, this is not a healthy bull pattern, it's bearish. Biggest move being wave 1, then fading moves as it progresses.

currently this move is about to make a lower low....after a lower high.. the fact that it couldn't even complete itself in the 5 wave pattern, goes to show added weakness.

I'm just trying to point out a great chart pattern to keep an eye out for. series of 3 highs, 2 higher lows, the last 2 highs being only slightly higher that each-other.... very ripe for major corrections.

Oil just dropped to a Record cheep 133...

If we can get a move to 130. I think the market would like it.....as it breaks to a lower low and a lower high.

I've ben mentioning the Marine transports... As a trade I think they still have some room to move... I'd also say watch for a second leg down..... but if oil breaks... they will rocket...

oil

the acumulation, matches very solidly the distribution in oil over the last 30 minutes


some great volitility, great action..... feels like some nice acumulation/consolidation in the upmove.... Hopefully a higher low.... I say as I talk my book

Mad Max trade

Market is very nervous. Dip buying on oil continues

Oil

I'd be optimistic if we could get oil down below 130.



Sharon on cnbc Finlay realized that volatility means the market is toppy..

Hi blog

As we must account for every idle word, so must we account for every idle silence.

Benjamin Franklin

Morning... Upward momentum continues... apparently.....

Monday, June 16, 2008

Why regionals

I'm trying to convince myself here...... I lightened up today..... I'm much happier to be trading around in these... and I wasn't impressed by the close.. that and oil.... but you aren't going to see the shorts with their pants down much more in oil.

Say you are a Waiter and you are speculating in housing.... you are going to go to CFC or one of the now defunct Mortgage finance companies, where the interview process is done buy someone who is basically a glorified telemarketer....
My point is, 80-90% of the bad loans were securitized, and of the remainder 50% didn't go to the big banks....

Well what about the builder loans......

most of those loans are asset backed, Meaning for the cost of the land... yes the land isn't worth as much, but probably 70%....
When the homies build a house, they usually treat the contractors like creditors, and usually they only get a 50% deposit... Even if the loan covered the whole thing....70% is recoverable....

It's just not that bad for them..... There will be some defaults in Genuine people who default because the home just isn't worth what it was when they purchased it.... But Those people think in 2 years it will be..... so... they aren't defaulting in Droves.

Oil

I've been busy... and umn.... Oil had a huge correction back to 133... it now is taking a solid $1.40 bounce/correction

I'll expect us to be strong into the close..

leaders and laggards



I didn't mention that the dry shippers were looking good chart wise...

I'd be carefull, there is exposure to oil, and a slowing global economy

basic resources oil and financials... how is that for a mix

Tired

what I'm sick of... is trading the market based on crude prices..... it's just ridiculous.... If I wanted to trade crude... I'd trade crude...

Mad Max Trade

the monday morning story again is oil... Market will want to see it retreat before it can move higher.

Saturday, June 14, 2008

Some Elliot waves

Here is our downtrend.... Very nice 5 wave move.
What is funny is that I look at the candles... I see that big green one, and look fondly on the day oil was $122 and reversed to $137 giving us the big green one and the big red one..... Oh! Sigh!! those were the days.
When you realize that what we could have is an ABC correction in a Bullish market.... hey!!! That's not right!!!! but it is what those candles show...


Here is a hypothetical though..... that we get a little retracement, then one more new low..... and we are then in a larger downtrend, and have a nice Bearish set of impulse waves..... We will see... But even if we do get one more low... We will have a follow up(upmove) Correction... I'd say if oil goes to 150 this week we will see this... Then Oil will correct... maybe back to the 120's or 130's... then it will resume it's march higher, and the market lower...

Friday, June 13, 2008

AAPL

As, a regular reader would know, I play very neutral on Tech....

I kid you not, if I short it on the NASDAQ it goes higher....... So I just don't have any skin in the game.

AAPL broke 171 support, Technical that is a now a wave 3 move in a downtrend from the highs.

Also, I'm not.. into all the wall-street bullshit, this stuff about Steve jobs is a bear run in the stock, Probably. But I did mention to someone that I agree with the opinion that technically AAPL topped out at the 3G news.

If you read, many of my market Thesis, Tops and bottoms come when "Everyone is in the trade" one way or another... Either they have scared everyone out, or everyone is in.... I always imagine some FNG seeing the 3g phone being announced and going "Oh! apple has a new phone, I should invest, that will be big." Not realizing that he is the last pig to that Trough.

that price action is very weak, and not being able to make a new high on the 3g news.... Everyone who is in that stock, is in..... So.... It gets to correct... Till the wall streeters figure it's a good value again... 150 130 somewhere in there.

This is the same as I feel about the regionals... if you are selling, you would have done it today... The boogyman was out hard. Besides day traders that are out for a morning short... I'm doubting the movement.

My point is... they are going to shake out aapl, and that Jobs is sick, is just the current reason.

wow

Tim russert Died.... that is sad... I didn't like his show, but.... good guy...

People need exercise...

oh, and I own some stock going into the close...

well

We had a nice wash out of all the regionals, and they are mostly priced for a dividend cut...

I'm not sure how they will close...

but.... Oil is looking weak... Maybe some optimisum if we can get below 134

wall street bullshit

Key bank cut their dividend...... Goes from 16 to 11.

Goldman comes out and says they think Fifth Third will cut their dividend.

goes from 16-11....

Now... wouldn't an actual cut, trump the supposition of a cut?

Yep

There goes oil

Clobbering


huge clobbering in regionals on the opening..... and then... 5 and 10% reversals
That 10% move there Just paid my bills this month.
I'm expecting some weakness this afternoon.... But maybe nto...

oil and the dollar

the euro/dollar is making a new low... er the dollar is very strong this morning.

The line in the sand is still 130.50 for oil to confirm a slight downtrend....

It's a flag pattern... and the bias is to the upside in oil.

Unless Oil compleatly breaks down to the 120's I'd say we will trade flat to down today

Running some charts

I was running some charts... lot's of the shitty banks are making new highs, they have yet to confirm a lower low, with a followup higher high...

of my underperforming regionals.....

cbon,HCBK, bbt, look like they could be on an uptrend.

STT as I mentiond this week, continues to be moving higher.... Though a nice wave 2 pull back would not suprise me today.

With the picutre of the financials being mixed... I'd say it's finaly a good sign of Accumulation... and you can even see it on the SPY.....

My prediction for the day is slight weakness... Unless oil breaks to the upside

Thursday, June 12, 2008

The great Barry, asked about what the fed will do.

It's a game of brinkmanship. But 2 things could bring a hike... Oil at 150.. or the ECB getting tight.

if we can get below 130 in oil... the market could sustain an up day... I was reading the commodities trader stuff... those guys are running pure adrenalin these days Flipping those trades around like no body's business.... and being very cautious on both sides...... Very Bearish....

some signs of accumulation today... I'll still stick with the possibility of nobody wanting stock tomorrow...... Cause it's Friday, and nobody does... I wonder if the selling happened today though... and we could see some short covering....

Mad max trade

this isn't even interesting anymore.....

pre market oil pump and dump

06/12/2008 07:39 Venezuela Chavez: Oil Prices Should Settle At $100 A Barrel

that is all I have.

Was it a week ago... or 2

That we had a solid sell off in oil on Thursday, and Friday morning looked good.... Till the Open outcry, and oil made a new high, and all hell broke lose...

here is an interesting thesis... the huge managers.... Really big ones.... that also know that the value of the banks is huge right now.... and that they could pop once the earnings come out next week....

they could spend the next 2 days buying all the banks they can get their hands on....

as optimistic as the futures are, we need to break 130.50 in oil... then it will need a rally to get a sollid "Buy" going for financials....

I'll expect a nice morning rally, followed by a solid sell off.....

The question will be..... Where will the sell off go?

the most optimistic thing is the Euro weakness this morning. it would be nice to see it break into the 1.53 range...

quote

The Eskimo has fifty-two names for snow because it is important to them; there ought to be as many for love.

Margaret Atwood

Morning Optimisum report

I tell you... I'm giving up.....

is that a sign of capitulation?. Just a personal note.... I'm thinking about going full time day trader, Meaning just trade the crap out of the intraday swings....

Quantifiable edges, points out that the mcClellan Oscillator has gone -200 which indicates the distinct near term possiblility of a short term reversal.

STT state street financial is looking to set up a TK infamoous Break out, pull back ,`go!.... but we are in the "Pull back".... it would be good to see the "Go" before making that bet.

I've seen some good signs of some of the regionals that looked like they just were sick of the selling.....

the Euro after that insane move to 1.5568, has rolled over overnight and is now 1.54

But.... with earnings next week the normal pattern is for them to sell off through friday.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Never

I was just looking at some of these banks..

The regionals have almost never sold off to 1/3 rd the value off their high.

this is very overdone......

Except the ones that deserve it like City morgan jpmorgan.....

The problem as I see it is that the smaller banks are being punnished like they are the larger banks.

baby seal clubbing

Well, I sugjested yesterday was a possible wave 4 now we have a nice wave 5....

Which doesn't mean it's over....

I guess it's possible we have a nice double top forming in oil...

We will see...

I think it will still take a day or 2 of solid acumulation before we get a pop...

Tired

I think the market is just Tired of oil.......

I think even oil is tired of oil.....

GO Oil Bears!!

I was hoping they would get on the meat....

142... WTF some asshole.....

Let's see... take oil to $200 and we have Mad Max..... or.....

Seriously the last dude purchased oil.

Paul Newman has lung cancer :(

oil

the market is trading very thin in front of the oil numbers

premarket

no good premarket pump and dump on oil.... Umn.... if you were going to be short oil, wouldn't you wait till the energy report.

I keep hearing noise about utilities.

quote

Liberals are concerned about the concentration of wealth because it almost inevitably leads to a concentration of power that undermines democracy.

Robert Reich

No Quote yet

..... Morning..

I'm exhausted, yesterdays trading was amazing... RBS says they have no more write downs.. we may get more optimism in the banks....

the KRE was up 1% even higher than the XLF... I think the money center banks are going to have a hell of a time raising capital, and most of it just goes to reserve requirements. the Regional have exposure to bad loans, but they can be foreclosed on, and some money can be recovered, as opposed to the nastiness the the money center and Ibanks are in for for the next years.

also the regionals will take market share from the big banks.... That is my thesis....

hmmmm....What else......

oh, why "its never different this time".... the micro cycles will still be the same, even though I believe this is a Super cycle... the super cycle says this will go on for a few years...

Materials/Consumer Sector rotation,
As the materials loose their Alpha from the rate cuts, the Banks generate Alpha from the widening credit spread. Borrow at the fed rate, loan at the 10 year. What will happen is that the banks will become a momentum trade in the next few days/weeks go to far, then come back again. There should be some choppy trade.
the real boost will be when rates are Raised. Hopefully we will get some global slow down.. and our economy will become stronger..
The ECB probably won't raise rates.... I just think there will be enough pressure to keep them soft on rates.... and with oil coming back to 100-110 it will elevate inflation pressures.... Near Term.

Transports... I was looking at them yesterday... and they look like they should catch a bid soon.....
seems like a good trade. EXM DRYS The P/E were in the 30's when I was looking at them last... probably down in the 20s now.

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

STT


state street...... this is the best looking 2 day chart I've seen

dip buying in oil

We swear it will be up again tomorrow....

They only say that because it's been true for 5 years.

6 day xlf

I'm a little worried about this being a wave 4.. but when you look athe the 40 day move... that last felt like a wave 5.

What an idiot I am

When I'm letting things ride... for the most part.... I umn... do stupid things, like email cnbc....

Just stupid... complaining about non Apples to Apples comparisons, and significant bias.

Oil and the snoopy dance

Lots of money to be made today.... We are working on confirming a higher high on the XLF... could take a while.

But oil is down 4.50 off it's highs, and plunging

Retest

Comon retest of the xlf

screen of green

that screen I ran last night with 2 exceptions are ll in the green.... with RF leading them all...

I'd be psycked to see a retest, but we may not get one

oil financials

with oil not getting week, the financial trade is scary... it's obviously scary anyways

7am open outcry pump and dump oil

it's :30 till open outcry and I'm going to track the pump and dump before open outcry on black diamonds.

It's up $2.00 in electronic

06/10/2008 08:18 Eni CEO Says Current Oil Prices Is "Unrealistic"

06/10/2008 08:50 BEFORE THE BELL/UPDATE: Oil Spurs Inflation Fears

well I don't see anything else, lets see if the boys in the pits can sell it off

Broken record

I know I'm like a broken record on this, maybe a broken watch..... I'd like to think that I only suggested a bottom last Thursday when we tried to consolidate, before oil blew up.

if you are into the suicide of bottom fishing, and can get out fast enough. I think this morning is the morning.

I looked at the charts and it just looks like everything is dead and in a 5th wave sell off.

it was suggested that the xlf shows capitulation with 3x normal volume...

here is gartman on kudlow

Futures

The price of a commodity will never go to zero. When you invest in commodities futures, you're not buying a piece of paper that says you own an intangible piece of company that can go bankrupt.
Jim Rogers

look at those futures, Chinese armageddon has the futures spooked...

Gartman on Kudlow last night(the 10 minutes I caught as My eylids got heavy), said all the bad news in banks wat in.... either that or I dreamed it.....

Do I do anything but work

Here it is 10pm after a few hour post market nap... Here I am reading, and doing more market research.....

Monday, June 9, 2008

Stock Screen

Regional banks Greater than 2 billion Yield >6%

IRE-Bank of Ireland 13.7%
FITB- Fifth Third 10.51%
RF-Regions Financial 9.83%
KEY-Key bank 8.6%
CMA-comerica 7.47%
WB- Wachovia 7.45%
NDBKY- Nedbank Group (ADR) 6.84%
STI-Suntrust bank 6.6%
HBAN Huntington Bankshares 6.57%
BBT- BB&T Corporation 6.557%
BPOP Popular, Inc 6.53%
SNV-Synovus Financial 6.4%
MI- Marshall Ilsley 6.015%

There are some Savings banks with high yield....
The market caps don't feel good but For your amusement -some of these are OTC

BHBC Beverly hills bancorp inc- 23.15%
CDLX Coddle Creek Financial 8.89%
SSFC South Street Financial Copr 7.08%
CHFN Charter Financial Corp 6.67%.

Asian Squawk

I turn on Asian squawk.....

It's all Armageddon.... Crude is 139, the weak dollar needs intervention....... Suddenly I feel like it's Friday.... I look it all up....

While I took my post market nap, the Euro Dollar went from 1.565 to 1.556....

and nymex crude set a high of 135.30, and Brent traded all the way down to 132.50....

apparently on some Uncle Ben speak.

Maybe the reporters are just smoking crack... or talking about Friday as if it's today....

or maybe I'm just waking up

libor


slight downtick in 3month libor

quick market thesis

So, overall my thesis is that this will be a Long and Shallow recession.... The things that will keep us up, or that are the reasons I believe that are that.

  • Global Growth, Not that we are disconnected, but that we are MORE connected. That will keep our economy Bouied more than we have ever seen in the past.
  • The market believes in Armageddon, because this has hit "Wall Street I-Banks", there is a bit of a Bubble in Wallstreet thinking. They won't understand that the world will go on without them. They also won't understand that things aren't becoming "Armageddon" fast enough.
  • Economic indicators are Trending UP, After a few months of this, the market is going to be in disbelief that things aren't that bad. A massive short covering rally will happen.
  • After that rally, the market will realize that globally, things are Bad, and we will see a slowdown over another year.
  • The surprise will be that normally we see this process take a year, and this time it will take much longer.
  • But the surprise will be that it will be Neither Deep, Nor Short.... The "X" factor, will be the Fed, the huge mistake will be to raise rates.... They aren't kids, that had to know that they couldn't raise rates for a long time... and if they suddenly need to raise them, it will be bad....
  • maybe it will be deep... but it's going to look shallow for a while.... Maybe that is my point.

end of day

probably not end of days,

I had alot of fun today trading my short hedge... would have been nice to play both sides.

I got a few runs in some of the banks I track.

Again I purchased some calls, I just see Banks that now have 12% dividends... and Can't imagine this isn't the buying opertunity of a lifetime.

Of course this goes with the calls I purchased 10% higher...

I picked up a few shares today of some favorites... though I lack conviction, With the leman news its' possible we get a short covering rally for a few days.

I feel like I need to post this

I put the short hege back on when we started making new lows...

and I just cleared it when oil dropped another buck, Oil is back up .75, and I don't know what I'll do...

Short Hedge



I decided to cover my short hedge here... if we start breaking down again, I'll put it back on.

xlf


So much for my double bottoming xlf

Full court Dollar press today

Fisher is about to talk, geitner just got done....

We are going to hear a full court press to get the stronger dollar..

paulson threating intervention

Go Paulson

1.5713 dollar euro
to
1.5687. and declining.

Fifth Third


FITB Fifth Third, starting to form an Ascending Triangle... as opposed to the descending triangle most the rest of the financials are forming....

xlf Thretens double bottom

This is just a possible double bottom, I always laugh at people who make that sort of call without it being tested... But half the financials I'm tracking are making a lower low and half a higher low.
and oil is trying to correct at the same time...

or it breaks down

Oil

another interesting divergence,... last week Brent Crude was trading .40 more than Nymex.

Now Brent is 1.30 cheeper than the CL contract.

fith third

this is the least scary chart in a regional....

but I point this out to say "Watch it"
if they break, they will break for a few days... so No bottom picking.

Oil

down $3 and a falling Euro.... Good to see....

goldman

Again they are trying to talk up oil...

3 minutes before open outcry-

The global crude oil price "superspike" predicted several years ago is
coming sooner because of rising demand and low inventories, a senior executive
at Goldman Sachs (GS) said Monday.

This morning

The market and the financials have been waiting for lehman news.....

is this it?

I'd say if oil can get below 134 by the open, that it could be a good day?

The euro is haveing a hard time holding 1.58.... That is good...

I don't know

Some trading quotes

From this story.

"I read a book on trading many years ago that said before every trading day
begins, you must ask yourself: How badly can I screw-up my account today?
"

The best single phrase about how much investment risk one should take comes
from J.P. Morgan, who told a worried friend, "sell down to your sleeping point."

"When the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last
day — and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope. And when
the market goes your way, you become fearful that the next day will take away
your profit and you get out — too soon. The successful trader has to fight these
two deep-seated instincts."

dollar euro

hit 1.484 over night. and has moved back to 1.4578 currently.... that is good news. Brent Crude went 137.5 then down $3.50 to $134.... Now has jumped back up 1.66... That is some volitility

chinese oil

China braces for leap in gas prices

But Tang and millions of other Chinese are bracing for a big jump in pump
prices. The day of reckoning? Everybody believes it's coming right after the
Summer Olympics in Beijing conclude in late August.
...
The reason, as most see it, is that the central government doesn't want to
risk doing anything that could upset the populace before the Games, which open
Aug. 8. China is already grappling with inflation running at an annual pace of
more than 8%, mostly because of higher food costs
...
Other countries that subsidize fuel costs have boosted prices recently, in
some cases stirring unrest. Protests flared late last week in India, where the
government upped prices by about 10%, and there were calls for mass rallies in
Malaysia after gasoline prices jumped 41% overnight.

Dollar/Euro

Threatening new lows.... Sweet, Dollar Crisis here we come...

Sunday, June 8, 2008

My #1 worry

So..... The ECB actually is threatening to tighten rates....... I kid you not.

Not that I know anything, but my thesis is the worst thing you can do is tighten. It's why I didn't want to see us loosen that last time, I felt like we could have kept rates flat for longer at the old rate, than they can now at the lower rate.

and now that they have, the worst thing they can do is tighten, and guaranteed if the ECB tightens... we go into a currency crisis. or an out of control currency crisis, as opposed to the one we are currently in.

but the Euro/dollar is showing the possiblility of being range bound 1.58-1.54. Which says oil could be range bound 115-140.

What else to do

at 6am, besides read the news....

I'm too lazy to throw out a chart..... But... it just seems like we are in wave 3 of a down turn.... If that's not obvious.

I'm just hoping for some sideways moves....

What is surprising me, is that we are in a crisis trade again... See at 12500 that is the level of march 2007, at which point earnings were in line.... 0% growth shows recession, and 1% as per GDP(ya it's cooked or whatever) is 12625... I'm not a big believer in the Discounting mechanism of the market....

I still think that the "Recession" has to prove itself.... and it's killing me that I'm sort of wrong and the market is in a "Crisis" trade again...

Here is some good news

The governments of China and India, which sell fuels to domestic users below cost, were in agreement with the U.S., Japan and South Korea that ``a gradual withdrawal of fuel subsidies is desirable,'' the statement said.


Libor charts Swaps

I umn... havn't been tracking this very well we have been trending up in 3 month libor, while trending down in overnight....
Long term risk is going up? but short term down?
I found out where bloomburg was hiding their libor charts... I'm going to replace the right links with them.... But, since I get so many searches for Libor Rate, I figured I'd provide the links.
Overnight Libor
3 month libor.

Aparently seaching for libor on bloomberg doesn't cut it to find the rates....

but I'm also going to update the links on the toolbar.

Saturday, June 7, 2008

We all know how I hate fridays

This is still such toppy behavior in oil.

My original thesis when we hit 125 was that we needed a nice correction back to 110 then could proceed higher..... Over all this is a full on correction of the move since 100. I don't have very good crude charts.... But to be honest I wouldn't buy oil at this point... And the euphoria was at the last high.... It's just over.

My current thesis.... Well the charts suggest we still have another low. at a minimum... I keep buying Calls, I just can't help it.

either oil will correct

or the shell game is over.

I have this nightmare that trichet, decides to get all the European banks together, and immediately decides to raise rates, and it kicks off a dollar crisis. Market gets cut in 2.

Uncle Ben found Drooling and mumbling to self in his office. Carted away in straight jacket.

I'm reminded of something somone said about bull markets "bull markets don't shoot up 10% in one day. That is the sign of a bear."

Friday, June 6, 2008

Mad Max Trade

So, I'm going to expect an attemt to wash this market out on monday.

Like I've said, this market is all about oil... This is still verry toppy behavior out of oil.... Healthy markets don't do what oil is doing. And that the Stock market is selling off, says that the market is sane.

and Oil is unafordable. People just won't buy it. Gas prices are up .22 cents today.


amazing trades today we have... are having a correction in my reversal.... Good news is that the euro feels like it has cracked it's uptrend. This trade is crazy... and the market has no idea where to go.....
I'll umn.... Teh S&P is lagging these moves...
if oil moves back into the 120's... this is very Toppy behavior... and points more tward a long term top than a correction in oil

Lets see how this turn works out


attempt to turn

This is very topie behavior in oil... it's back down a couple bucks.
I'd like to see the Euro weaken, but it's sort of self fulfilling prophecy

450 points down today

that is my pridiction unless oil reverses to 125

fuck

The worst part is that after grinding this out all week, eating most my gains from the week. I do not want to ground it out all fucking day again....

and it's friday, nobody want's stock on friday.

oil

up $12 in 24 hours....

Morning

Well, I don't know about today. Market is nervous, that is good.

interesting NFP....

Fridays.... I should just sell on thursdays


Thursday

evil conquest

The root of the evil is not the construction of new, more dreadful weapons. It is the spirit of conquest. Ludwig von Mises

Thursday, June 5, 2008

1 day 13 trades

I hit them all nearly perfectly... or as good as it gets....

2 fed governors, and one s and p downgrade Ugh... I'm so damn tired... who knows what will happen in the next 60 minutes but I expect to be Overweight financials into the close.....

heheheh into the job number...

the killer will be if the nfp is negative 100+k...

the expectation in a recession is negative 200K for jobs...

I hesitate to say it

But that downgrade, and spook in the financials with ambac and mbia hitting the index, then affecting the broader sector.....

But I'd say that/this sell off is the bottom..

Near term....

S&P and moodies

Oh...... Thank god... I thought we were going to make it through a day without hearing more bullshit from the biggest dinasaurs in the financial system

*DJ S&P: Ambac Financial Grp Cut To A; MBIA Inc Cut To AA-

The chart closed...



My guess is to get it going I have to repost it.

Trichet... What an ass

So, My thesis is that oil is headed for 110-100

we could luck out and see 80-90.....

so there Trichet is today, talking up the Euro.... so instead of working on everyone getting a break of 30-50% in oil... and yes a 10-20% correction in the dollar Euro, meaning that the Europeans only get half of that break..... But WTF..... Even if he needs to hike rates, Shut the fuck up about it, and let oil Correct.....

Why?

Why do I feel like this is just a repeat of yesterday.....

Banks

I don't think there is a bank I'm tracking that doesn't look good this morning.

The Kohn statment gave us a gret retest, and opertunity to go "all in"

Hopefully we are off to the races

Chart.




I'm going to try and run this chart "Live" all day. DJ us Sectors top 15 and bottom 15

Some charts

On the turn you should see a few things.

  • first a breakdown of the wave 5 trend,
  • Some sideways moves, in a series of inside moves or hopefully higher lows and higher highs. AKA Acumulation.
  • Then a Breakdown of the overall trend.
STT-State Street Some Great progressive resistance 69.8 then grows to 70.2. Also Yesterday when most the Regionals made new lows at the end of the day, State Street did not.... It broke the 5th wave last week, If it can break 72 that breaks the downtrend, and should say "Buy" at about 70.6. Nice Acumulation, higher lows, and some indicators of higher highs.

Marshall & Ilsley Corporation- MI

We had a wave 5, and have broken the overall downtrend. We would like to see it go to 23+, then pull back to a higher low... then break out... Nice distribution, It's consolidated in the past few days looks good, It didn't make a new low, but the morning low was higher than the afternoon low.... Could break down....

WB Wachovia





We have a wave 5 which... we havn't had a lower low in.... Yet, the down trend hasn't been broken, but we did make a higher high yesterday, from the day before..... Caution. but may start consolidation....

RF- Regions

We have some nice consolidation, starting, broke that wave 5, also higher higher high, and higher low.... There is some time to heal here...

This is Key bank... that dip is because they said they may have to cut their dividend.

we have a nice wave 5, it hasn't broken yet, But of due note is that there is a nice Healthy Acumulation move at the end of the day yesterday... it is a new low.

UB

This is UB, it isn't looking that good, but it is interesting to note that there was a higher low at the end of the day yesterday.

Tired

The health of the eye seems to demand a horizon. We are never tired, so long as we can see far enough.

Ralph Waldo Emerson

Yesterday's sectors


I suspect there could be some interesting moves in paper products.

Sectors


Transports Utilities consumer non-cyclical.

Overall that is the Safety play... Flight to we are still in a recession. Recession Sectors are utilities Non-cyclical, and health-care....

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Mccain

When Mccain speaks, doesn't he seem like the guy in debate class that didn't do well....



Post a trade lose money

state street financial

Alright... this has my blood going....

D-fence....

Post a trade lose money.

but many regionals feel good


well we are trying to make another reversal.... This is 2 days of the xlf,

Ratings Agencies

..... Every Fucking Day!!! we get to a sensative point in a rally... and those Retards who have no idea what a bond is, or what it's worth... show up and make some ratings changes.....

and that the market gives a shit....

Post a trade... get beat

.
I'd still be looking for a turn.......... and that is fairly 4th and 5th wave.

Energy

Look at that stupid thing... it just wants to rally on anything....

that is the 50% retrace... and I hestitate to sugjest that this could be the reversal.....

but D-fence wins the game

Fith Third


Looks like all the regionals may retest........ Nice move to the 38.2% or 50% retrace.... Get me psyched to go All in....

quote

Be at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let every new year find you a better man.

Benjamin Franklin

back to old ben today

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Market Psychology

An important thing to ask, is when that point is that Everyone will get short, or everyone will get long... And for me... That is Everybody, every moron dope.

This Leeman thing, I just don't get it, why is it a whole market thing... The market data has been a surprise to the upside.

I tell you what is new...... After Months of fast response trading, where you can miss a move in 30 minutes.... We are getting much slower moves, nice clear moves that take a week to set up and react to.

Long Damn Days

Some trading Examples. Here is HCBK..... I'm always drawing trends. Besides these Trends, I'm watching tends on the indexes, and on Oil and on the Euro...... I've found my secret is to see 80% of those trends going in your direction... Oil and Euro down... Indexes Up.... Or the inverse if you're shorting.If I'm nervous, I'll wait.... There is nothing wrong with waiting... The market is always there and with cash there are always opportunities. But the good move is after the Trend line in broken, you wait for a correction.... Then make your move.

Today was the first day that we got some bounce, I'd had it with the last 2 days that there was no bounce at all going for the Regionals. It wasn't that surprising that the early strength Sold off.... I.E. Wave 4... Into a Wave 5.... Hopefully a reversal.

Here is a detail of the end of the day Trade on hcbk. Obviously With .40 moves, it takes about $10,000 to make $100.... Now I hate HCBK... but what I look for are opportunities... I'm not interested in the big shitty banks... But Like I said the Regionals are now trading like they have lost their Dividends, and Hope to god, they don't try and Issue stock at these levels, and HCBK is a trade only at this level, I'm looking to go long Stocks,

and it was easier to make money short. It was good to start seeing some bouncie Bouncie.....

But it also got obscene not to accumulate some stock, and some calls today.

I'm going to see If I can stroke out in the next couple weeks... just playing.

but we have sold off almost every morning for 2 weeks so I won't be suprised to see it again.

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"