Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Monday, June 16, 2008

Why regionals

I'm trying to convince myself here...... I lightened up today..... I'm much happier to be trading around in these... and I wasn't impressed by the close.. that and oil.... but you aren't going to see the shorts with their pants down much more in oil.

Say you are a Waiter and you are speculating in housing.... you are going to go to CFC or one of the now defunct Mortgage finance companies, where the interview process is done buy someone who is basically a glorified telemarketer....
My point is, 80-90% of the bad loans were securitized, and of the remainder 50% didn't go to the big banks....

Well what about the builder loans......

most of those loans are asset backed, Meaning for the cost of the land... yes the land isn't worth as much, but probably 70%....
When the homies build a house, they usually treat the contractors like creditors, and usually they only get a 50% deposit... Even if the loan covered the whole thing....70% is recoverable....

It's just not that bad for them..... There will be some defaults in Genuine people who default because the home just isn't worth what it was when they purchased it.... But Those people think in 2 years it will be..... so... they aren't defaulting in Droves.

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