If you're short, I'm the sucker going long....

Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, June 26, 2008

oil.....

if only it could trade in the 130 range....

every damn day.... does it feel like it is the last chair in a game of musical chairs?

Posted by Eric at 1:13 PM

2 comments:

Tony said...

Up down up down, oil is unbelievable. I closed out all my DUG with a small profit... I really thought it would do better these last few weeks. If oil hits $142, I may get back in.

Foreign currencies are doing better with the weakened dollar; I guess nobody's buying the Bernanke talk of strengthening the greenback. Are you still long the euro? Have you looked at the British pound, FXB; Marketedge just called a Long on FXB.

June 26, 2008 at 2:24 PM
Eric said...

Maybe oil will go to 150 and then the fed will step in and tighten....

See, it the 70's they tried to tighten, but because it was an embargo it didn't work.... which IMO is why they are hesitant to tighten....Then they reversed and suddenly loosened again. Of course if they had just tightened and stayed with it, we wouldn't have had to go through 8 years of stagflation.... All the fed had to do yesterday was show some balls and the market would have backed down. but they are back to the road most travled... easily we could slide into a broader dollar crisis. and in the next year we will see them fire Uncle ben, and put fisher in... but the republicans won't stand for that... they love a weak dollar.

I try not to be a Crisis person, because someone stepps in and stopps it usually... but everyone has lost credibility.

$200 oil and we will crash... have no doubt... But I try not to get caught up in the emotions.

People have emotional memory, and every time the fed meets commodites go up... but with the fed not "Cutting", Id suspect that this is sort of a false rally, based on that, traders don't know what else to do, for the most part people and their "Lizard brains" just do the same thing over and over again, till it doesn't work.. there isn't any rational brain behind it. Repeat Repeat Repeat... Untill it dosn't work... and yest this time things went up, just like every time.. but it is different this time...


Maybe this oil move is the big orgazum we have been waiting for.

Also if my thesis about how the chinese could stopping buying oil for the olympics we will see more builds, and the "buying" futures won't be able to keep up.

I pulled my "Short Euro" before the g8 because people were too optimistic about what would happen there.. I never went long the euro.. because regardless of the "Reality" of it.. I don't back the Thesis... the Euro/dollar shouldn't hit 1.6 unless the ECB tightens... of course they may have to now.


If you are picking up on my trading Philosophy... I wouldn't chase the downtrend in the dollar, or the spikes in oil. these are old well known trades. I'm always looking for the next trend... if it's the next 2 day rally or 5. That is just how I work. I'm looking for the next move, and waiting for it.. don't get burned, don't chase

I've been doing well trading the dug intraday, With commodities plays "like oil" it's too hard because at 7am oil can spike $20 and you don't get to trade it till 7:30. Same is true for gold.... if you arn't trading long term in a commodities play... it's best to do it Intraday.

The Dow Chemical news smelled like the start of hyperinflation. Which is scarry, but few people will put their money down on a dollar crisis. That would be serious "Torches and Pitchfork" time. You would have wallstreet shut down and demand the rate hikes, financial system be damned.

I can't get my head around market psychology right now.

Funny thing is that oil is in a feedback loop, since there is no where else to put money... it's where it keeps going... so the more the market declines, the more the dollar declines, the more things look grim, The higher oil goes....

If you don't realize... there is no motion in the market...

this trade, the Fed did nothing Trade, Commodites go up (this is the same trade as we have had for 9 months), will falter... I don't think it will last..... None of this is any fun, or interesting.

Cramer was just on, calling for 700 pts lower... that is a good Contrary indicator...

One secret IMO about the market, is risk management, and besides day trading.... This is too hard to trade.... Which tells me, that we are getting to an inflection point... happens every time...

Will we flatten out, and capitulate, or will we take a nice 500 pt dip?

June 26, 2008 at 3:12 PM

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