I'm expecting a huge down day on monday.. Regardless of what is going on... the market has no buyers.... We need to find them..... We should sell of hard on monday, then find them on tuesday.
we need that huge down day that precipitates the bottom......
It unnerves me..... I'm suprised how well the regionals were holding up.. then the last 2 days they have been cracking... I don't expect them to hold up...
I do suspect my calls may be very valuble when the vix spikes.. maybe more valuble than when I purchased them... so I may toss them.... Maybe not.
I just think monday will be that day that you want to puke, and tuesday will be when you want to buy.... we are just building to that.... a nice 400 pt down day to scare the shit out of people... then hold your dick and buy like mad
Friday, June 27, 2008
What I expect
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2 comments:
The VIX* i s till holding up, so there is no panic yet. I agree, the market should continue to decline until a capitulation occurs.
*Ritholz has been blogging about this (not my idea).
Things don't always work the same... Things just rhyme... never the same... and yet.. always the same.
It must be friday If I'm talking in riddles.
We have seen the market bottom without the vix bottoming... but Honestly the money managers wait for the big vix spikes and that is when they sell their puts, because they are more valuble then because of the adjustment in the contract price based on the vix.
that is why if I sell my calls I'll get a premium for them, then I can just buy stock.... but it will depend on price... because It will be hard to replace the calls... or maybe not...
2 things that UNNERVE ME. lack of panic Yet and we are at 11,300. lack of Vix... and lack of segnificant Bounce... I don't think we have been positive for weeks, and then only +30.
good news is they have started shooting the Generals, JPM was down big today.
This market will go nowhere without the financials....and in my opinion they still have 10-15% to go.. but they also try and take my regionals down with them...
We also are going to go back to 3 day rallies and sell offs.
I spent today trying to get in the best position for a bottom...
The thing to watch is what I was trying to explain... there are 2 legs of a True Bear.... and they are separate... and if the first leg is 20% the second leg will get us down 40%.
I can't quite figure out if this is still the first leg or the second....
this oil trade has done something freaky to this trade...
and in the end... it is materials and oil that will do well... but there will be near term topps in those trades.
to be honest... this trade is starting to get interesting again...
Ask yourself how the Dukes in Trading places got rich... it was trading commodites in the stagflation bear market of the 70's..
and it's not that they got richer, they just didn't get as poor as everyone else did with dollar devaluation.
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