quick market thesis

So, overall my thesis is that this will be a Long and Shallow recession.... The things that will keep us up, or that are the reasons I believe that are that.

• Global Growth, Not that we are disconnected, but that we are MORE connected. That will keep our economy Bouied more than we have ever seen in the past.
• The market believes in Armageddon, because this has hit "Wall Street I-Banks", there is a bit of a Bubble in Wallstreet thinking. They won't understand that the world will go on without them. They also won't understand that things aren't becoming "Armageddon" fast enough.
• Economic indicators are Trending UP, After a few months of this, the market is going to be in disbelief that things aren't that bad. A massive short covering rally will happen.
• After that rally, the market will realize that globally, things are Bad, and we will see a slowdown over another year.
• The surprise will be that normally we see this process take a year, and this time it will take much longer.
• But the surprise will be that it will be Neither Deep, Nor Short.... The "X" factor, will be the Fed, the huge mistake will be to raise rates.... They aren't kids, that had to know that they couldn't raise rates for a long time... and if they suddenly need to raise them, it will be bad....
• maybe it will be deep... but it's going to look shallow for a while.... Maybe that is my point.