Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Friday, July 25, 2008

quantifyable edges

get out the boogyman....


Looking at the results of a 2% or greater drop after a bounce from a 200-day low I found that 47% of them went on to make new lows within the next 5 days. In every case where the market managed to hold above its recent lows for the next 5 days, it also held above them for at least 3 more weeks. The next five days may tell a lot about the sustainability of this attempted rally.
Funny when the model a week ago was 100% of a 20 day run.....

so take it for what it's worth.

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