I don't know what to say about it.....
Technically I read it as sideways.... Even though I don't believe in sideways.
My Model says we should get a nice run from now till friday/monday.
One significant though I had was that the market just wants to "Pretend Bottom" here. It thinks we can just "price it all in" here..... And we can't the damage has to play out over the next year. "Are these the lows"... Who knows... but we need to go through the motions. My contrarian thinking says "The market wants to believe this is the bottom".... that won't happen, we will get some kind of "huge relief" "that was the bottom" bounce..... then we will have to retest, and it should scare the shit out of every one.
this just goes back to my theme that this was just too much and you can't price in a 2 year recession after 1 year of it.... and we can't just sit here for 6 months.
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Mother market
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