Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Libor

British Bankers Association Libor Rates For Euros

.All rates compared to previous day's fixing: .
. Current Previous . ------- --------
.O/N 4.37500 4.41250
.1WK 4.72750 4.68500
.2WK 4.76000 4.70500
.1MO 4.91000 4.84250
.2MO 4.89750 4.84750
.3MO 5.06250 5.05250
.4MO 5.16125 5.15625
.5MO 5.22000 5.20750
.6MO 5.26750 5.25750
.7MO 5.29250 5.28000
.8MO 5.32125 5.30875
.9MO 5.34750 5.33375
.10MO 5.38000 5.37125
.11MO 5.41625 5.41000
.12MO 5.45750 5.45000

7 comments:

Tony said...

How do you use the LIBOR?

I understand it is a fear index and that we are looking for a trend of sorts to gauge sentiment.

So how is it used from a practical standpoint? Sell when the ON is higher than the previous day's ON?

I realize it is one indicator, but just wondering...

Eric said...

You know, its a once a day indicator.

but it's a relative indicator.

overnight today is down from yesterday... Which says things are better today than yesterday.

but 1 month is up.. so bankers want a better premium at 1 month than they did yesterday.

3 month continues to climb. that is a longer concern It's a good indicator that the long term health of mortages is not as good.

you also have to remember that 2 weeks ago, these were in the Three's

how I read it is that near term fear(fear this week is less) 1 month fear is more (maybe it's a suggestion that Congress will be tied up in this for 1 month).

the 3 month rate changes non fixed mortgages.....
it slowly moves up... It's not good, but better than last week.

Tony said...

So, if On is decreased, the short term indicator is that fear is decreasing, but all other rates still show a significant amount of fear in the markets.

I wonder if there are stats (quantifiable edge?) that would tell when the risk decreases below benefit. Maybe when the three shortest duration are all lower than previous, while the longer durations are still higher, or something like that.

This would be the proverbial "bell ringing at the bottom."

Eric said...

Not sure I would use it as a buy signal..

They use spreads too.

3 month libor to 3 month tbill which is the ted spread.

and last week:

Wed: the ted spread hadn't been that large since 9/11...

Then on thursday, not so large since the crash of 87.

The good thing is that overnight continues to go down... and I remember that today's overnight decrease is larger than anything in a few days.

What is amusing is if any part of it gets big, media reports it... the big libor media report today was the increase in the 1 month...

well nobody pays attention to the 1 month...

except the media

Tony said...

Bush to talk to nation tonight about the Global Economic Crisis (TM).

That should translate to 300 point drop in morning trading.

Eric said...

Somebody has to sell it.... They are doing a lousy job

Eric said...

Maybe cheney is the one to sell it....

Maybe some reverse psycholgy... they need cheney to sell a "no rescue plan"

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