Like many who are trying to guess the next fed move.... Like I say it's a placebo, and numerous times I've said it would be best if the fed put off the rate cuts as far off as they can.
I've warmed up to the idea of them doing a one and done, or Literally saying you get 3.5% for 2 months, after that it's going back to 4.5%..... Except, won't the banks just hang onto the money, then loan it out at tighter rates later.... I don't know.
I'd think so highly if Ben putts off cutting rates till the meeting.
What I think the fed should do and what the fed will do, are two different things. I think that Ben may be calling the market's bluff. a game of chicken that the market may be losing.... Without a tragic episode in market action that actually Locks up the Credit market.... He will probably hold steady, I'd like to hope.
It's best for this economy, but may put a hurt on my Market bets.... but
It will be fun to watch.
I keep hearing people talk about the market and the market action.... This is what I think.... This isn't' going to trade like the 87 crash, the 74 stagflation, the 1907 panic or 1929 crash..... The August dip, the December dip, The 2000 Bear...
I was doing some historic charting, and news tracking.... so many massive sell offs in the market involve violent Reversals.. Sure it's impending doom,but it doesn't make me money.
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Ben Bernake
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