Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Being short

so, everyone knows I'm a bit of a switch hitting Bear/Bull.... I'm sorry I'm sorry.... apologise it doesn't' agree with your Thesis/dogma... I know "market is going to 0 and you are getting every piece of it...."

I realized when I went short, as I researched every bear for the past 100 years, that.... the downside is 10-40%.... well, I can't have 40% returns over 2-4 years.

Even double short, that barley covers inflation, especially the inflation of the fed taking the rate to 0%, It occurred to me that I needed to ride the roller coaster, and have some alternate strategies, one of which will be shorting retail aggressively this year.... Xmas is going to suck..... Regardless of the Rallies we may get. The other was going long small financials at these quarterly earnings.. Which BTW will quite possibly be the first long in a Great portfolio I'm building.

But some investors say, you can't catch the top or the bottom, it's the middle you try and catch. forget the rest.... roughly a T-boon Pickens quote.

You know what I love, we are getting the hard core investors out, the ones that can trade through any environment, and they give such great advice.

My point is, there is no way to just stay short the indexes through this. Clearing up positions is Key.. you can live in "What could have been", but worse is dealing with unrealized gains when a position turns into a loser. having dry powder to exploit things through this is going to be Key.

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