Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Rogers Diffusion of Innovation Bell Curve

So, Some dope came up with this...... I always come back to this, When I trade I want to be in that first 15%...... The key is to look for the 70%.... In Trading, and Elliot Wave Theory That is the Third Wave.....



But you ask? what is the point in finding the third wave. It's too Late to invest if you are seeing it in the rear view mirror...... But once you see it, then you can prepare for the final 16% then you bet the swing.

Now let's look at a chart.

Sure I'm just trying to Rationalize my Thesis......

But like I say "Chart-Astrology"

I was looking at the charts, today and waiting for quite some time for the Late Majority to come in and give us a second leg down.......

And they never came..... Why???? I suspect based on the laggards coming in we would make a smaller low. But in a bottom process, the Good stocks will be gone before the indexes bottom..... Even if we have a small leg down in the morning.... I still bet that My stocks run hard.

Also, proportionality says that the last rally lasted a day and a half, the next will last 3 days, We have had 3 days of sell off.

None of this has said "1300" in the SPX, If the late majority had come in We could then make the case for a 4th and 5th wave..

Even if I lose on this, It's this kind of thinking that continues to make me money.

Never Panic, and Never Chase a Trade.

The market trades more on momentum than News, that is why we ignore some bad news, and seem to take such importance to others.....

Move counter to the crowd. I hear people calling 11K in the Dow, and it reminds me of people calling for a 1 point rate cut.

(personal note, I was just on the phone with someone, and let me warn you, you don't want to talk to me. I'm happy to hear what you have to say, but get to the point. I don't have all my life to be on the phone with people, waiting for them to make up their mind, or remember something. If it's important, call me back, when you are sure, or it is important enough to remember what you had/have to say)

5 comments:

new comer said...

Morning Eric,

Just want to express my feelings on the market.

The recent substantial decline in the stock market in 2008 gave me the feelings that we have already entered into a bear market or even a GREAT DEPRESSION.

Sub prime did have a widen impact than what we have expected - a sharp increase in umemployment (some anlsyst bet it will be 8% by the end of 2008), lower consumer spending

Now I will start to ask myself where is the bottom, Dow 11000? S&P 1200 (the first target) No one know. Yesterday I heard a analyst saying that 2008 would be a difficult year for America and we might even wrose in 2009.

new comer said...

Today Well Fargo and JP Morgan would be the star and setting up the tone for whole day trading.

On the economic report, CPI and Industrial Production will be due 8.30 & 9.15 respectively. CPI would be in line with consenous I guess +0.2%.

Tony said...

Eric,
The graphics don't transfer onto your comments, but I left my market comment on my site:

http://tinyurl.com/3xzcw2

Melissa, why do you think JPM and WFC will be "stars" today?

new comer said...

Of course, everyone is watching their Q4 earnings, and whether they have great exposure on sub prime. Here's the new for JP Morgan.

.P. Morgan's net income fell 34% as the bank reported $1.3 billion in subprime-related write-downs and increased credit-loss provisions.

Eric said...

Hey Great, some discussions in my comments.

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"

cnbc