Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Let the Rain Dance Continue!!


Overnight the Dollar-Euro made a new Swing high. I can play a new Vic2b at about 1.511.

But before I think about being anything but the most defensive of Short seller. Is that I want to see a nice bounce after a new Swing low. Which is all the way down at 1.4940... SO once I see that bounce I can think about being a Bear.

Let me also point out that the dollar is about to retest the high from weeks ago, so it will probably retreat before pushing Higher... that is just typical price action.

Other than that it's just RainDancing.
So, here it is, futures are up 10... I doubt they will hold this high and I doubt a trend day. It's obvious to me that the morons got short on the 65 minute downbars yesterday.... and now have to be in Hope Or Puke Mode.

Same thing on the SPX... I want to see the low on the 65 minute broken, then I want to see an upswing. I doubt very much that we will see a trend day... I do think a ton of people will think and try and play a trend day. The only thing I know is that after this uptrend on the 65Min, we will see a downswing that will be larger than the last one.

I'll save you the "This could be the Top" through each of these highs... because we have no idea how many there will be, and each of them could be a top....

But let me remind us..... OF THE 60Min 20EMA, which is HELL AND GONE below us 1082.... That is a Full Trend day Below us.

Sentiment wise, I have yet to see Melissa F. make the Fuck me Eyes at Kudlow. The best thing one can hang a hat on, is the diabolical nature of a failure, or how EVERYBODY knows we are going higher.

18 comments:

Tony said...

You seriously need to exchange your moccasins for some sunglasses.

Eric said...

You understand, I'm mocking the rain dance... there is no reason to think we are going lower.

Tony said...

Oh, good. You had me worried for a sec.

Tony said...

I'll have to change my picture then.

Eric said...

that is it.... must be the top tick!!!

LOL, and it could be too!!

Tony said...

Isn't that great! Buy SKF, short WFC, sell, sell, sell!!!!!!

Man, why didn't I think of pulling out the Michael picture weeks ago!!??

Tony said...

Seriously!

Eric said...

you know it doesn't work that way... it's because you didn't think to change it...

I'm not sure you can change it back till like.... 850spx...

I'm not sure... I'll ask T!

Tony said...

Damn. I knew there was a catch.

1.495 is horiz support on eurusd

Eric said...

don't forget your srs

Eric said...

1.494 is yesterday's low....

But want to be very cautious... we want to see the rebound off a lower low. But that we probably won't see Until tomorrow morning.

Eric said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Eric said...

fuck... Did I say consolidation prize....

Consolation...

Eric said...

I say you give it till the 20EMA on the daily, to pull the icon.

there is a beautiful shooting star setup on the daily candle.

I think your consolation prize is, you should call top on twitter.

something like "OK! I'm Calling Top!... I know everyone is doing it!"

Tony said...

I thought you meant "consolidation" prize... as in, we are forming a nice bear flag and will shoot to 1400!!!

Tony said...

Oops, I meant BULL flag. Go, Michael, go.

Eric said...

Well I'm a little spooked by that possible freudian slip on my part...

but there is some solid Cognitive Dissonance going on Market action Vs what is going on in the Dollar. Sentiment wise it's a great Sentiment indicator.

"they don't want to believe it"

Tony said...

"Waiting on the shooting star" sung to Springsteen's "Waiting on a sunny day".

He's the best:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwUhl5fat_c

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