I don't realy know if anyone is reading this blog

I figure I'd give a recap of my opinion on the economy and Le Market.

Just a recap of what kind of asshole I am.

My poorly measured IQ is 140-160 range... probalby in the low end cause I'm a sucker for tons of bullshit.... but I digress

I'm no economist, and have a humanities background.....

Meaning I have Bear Tendancies...

But... I'm very bullish on the market. Based on my understanding and research on Recessions and the market. Once the fed cuts the Bulls take it to the market, and if they are doing low volume runn-ups with high volume sell offs. We will trade to all time highs through earnings, and untill.... well untill we get some realy bad news.. .probably in the form of employment... we will get a 50's number next month, and the bulls will say "lets see if it's revised up next month" we will trade neutral till the december number... it will be bad and we will probably Crash.
This is the 8th or 9the inning of the game. the question answered today was if we were in the bottom of the 9th... and we could be in the 8th.... I wouldn't rull out that we are in the bottom of the 7th.

also it could be the GDP number that kicks us in the ... Balls.

the 100K employment numbers are Bad... and tell the real maket guys to get very defensive.... and they are taking as many profits right now as they can.

The market action today was good, but not "Great" not like monday.... the fact that the monday rally was better than this "good employment" number... tells me something about the market... the price action shows much more bearish than one would suspect. at the end of the day the institutional investors, didn't come in like they normaly do. and the daytrading L2 traders got caught with teh bag as we traded back to the 50% retracement.... we are still bullish... it's just... strange, and its very bearish that no one wanted to hold onto stock at the end of the day... Especially on what was such a "good day".

The dollar... the dollar should be strengthening, and gold should be coming down with oil... I project 710 in gold and 76 in oil.... the fed is not going to cut...

when the fed doesn't cut.. the bulls will say "oh, that's because the economy is ok." usually we trade up for a while after that.

with my money I'll be playing very defensive, and find beaten down sectors by market sell offs"profit taking"

I guess my point is we aren't falling off a cliff but I didn't think that anyways... but we are going up for a few weeks. it's easier to make money long, and not short....

Always afraid but long the market...