Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Friday, October 19, 2007

Climbing the Mountain of worry.

My trader skills are 2 fold.

1. My math skills, logic skills, technical skills are unreal. I can see the patterns in the trading and for the most part, it's absolutely second nature to me.
2. I can "smell" the market psychology. the shifting moods and constant swings from Fear to Greed .. I don't know.. I just tend to hit them just right. +/- one day.

Last Friday I went straight to cash, and just waited it out. I knew we were in for a down leg and wanted to be "ahead of the curve" I figured we would have one more small up day. Well we traded slightly down on Monday, I was surprised. we also tend to trade in 5 day cycles, and that was more like a 3 day downtrend, and Thursday was a weak up day... which is normal... But....

here is the thing, if we are in a 3 day up cycle, we should be up in the premarket, and up big, 30 pts in the futures minimum...
If it's a 5 day up cycle, hopefully we don't start day 2 of that cycle down 30... but 50? that is sketchy.

Well we are down 70... That is bad, and it was barley midnight my time(Mountain) when that happened.

We were down 17 pts at one point on the nasdaq, currently down 14
s&P down 7.2

when you look at yesterday most the sectors were up, energy was weak, but.... it's been up.

THIS JUST ISN"T LOOKING GOOD.

but maybe I'm just freaking out cause of the date.

the unemployment numbers weren't great
highest in 7 weeks isn't a legitimate number to get my panties(not actual panties) in a bunch.

the 3 month mean of the nonfarm payrolls is not bad, not good...

The Asian markets are not doing well... except china which is sort of flat.

another thing I said. was if there was an international event, not just rumor or saber rattling, I'd be gone... Does this bombing in Pakistan count?

There is no reason, but as nervous as the markets have been, will this finally be the straw that breaks the camels back.

WE NEED SOME GOOD NEWS..... i'm thinking if we are down more than 50 I'm gone.

watch it be down 51 or 49..... grrrr...

The positions i'm in, I'm fine if it "Rains" but I think I'm not insured for "earthquakes"... or "flooding"... I'm not sure what that means.

I'm looking with my biggest position in an inverted triangle which is 1-4 days of it's break out, 5-6 dollars of break out....

Like I said... Cliff of worry... er mountain.

I always have to remind myself "Keep your dick under you".... Whatever that means.

Maybe at 4am.. My time, becky quick will calm everyone down...

I can cash out and be fine... I can lose the 3 bucks per share I've gained in 2 days.......

I put a stop in.... see how I feel in the morning. 2 hours away.

this is how I make mistakes. and it's always fridays too. Like the long drag of the week finaly gets me.

I just need it to rain and not pour.

It's these fucking Europeans, fuckers constantly talking about 87 and convinced it's comming... I want to punch them.... grrrrrrrrr

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